M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh sorry Darg.

[Jamiet99uk]

ghug/Chaqa was the interaction. ghug has no reason to put Chaqa as top townread. Chaqa's playing nice with ghug. They both got guns, and while I'm not necessarily sure that ghug was going to hipfire Chaqa, I am very confident the reverse was true. There's a detente between them that makes no sense based on personal history or game state, and it strongly suggests they know they're on the same team. They're finding awkward reasons not to sus each other because they know they'd shoot each other if they weren't on the same team.

@President Eden: You just said you think the scum team is Brainbomb, Ghug, and Chaqa.

So here you are theorising that Scum!Chaqa was definitely going to shoot Scum!Ghug?

Please explain.

[dargorygel]

##GM NOTE
VOTE COUNT 1.08 (for updated accuracy and convenience)

foodcoats: (4) rdrivera2005, Hamilton Brian, snowy801, brainbomb
brainbomb: (4) President Eden, foodcoats, damo666, Jamiet99uk
President Eden: (2) Johnny Big Horse, ghug
Jamiet99uk: (1) Macca573
worcej: (1) Chaqa

(one end vote: Eden for brain)

All have posted
e.m.c^42 and worcej have not yet voted

No one is in the lead

Still just under 10 hours today.

[snowy801]

I think this premise that everyone suspected or known to hold a gun is scum is supremely.flimsy and at best a horrendous reach. It relies on the conjecture that the scum team is unbelievably stupid (not impossible, but despite joking around some I don't actually believe that of anyone in this game). I immediately could see that the only way to move forward as town was to choose rose, and it does not seem probable that 2 or 3 members of scum failed to notice this, and then proceeded to talk about it after it was made clear that there were at most 2 guns in town.

It does not exonerate brainbomb, as his response to early pressure was erratic and highly unmatural (I state once again that I very much resonate with PE's argument that he thinks brainbomb was upset at having been implicated for mechanical reasons after the max 2 town gun reveal, rather than any in thread substance), but it does make me wonder the desperation PE is currently showing to "solve" the game.

I don't believe there is currently any reason to suspect that chaqa is scum. Not sure about ghug, but that just means I wouldn't elevate him over the remaining candidates as well. Curious, and I don't draw an immediate conclusion from this.

[brainbomb]

I took an item
and it was based on the role I received, not pregame

and I am town
thank you

this message was brought to you by Sears

[snowy801]

brainbomb, why were you behaving as though you did not read the rules (e.g. knowing it was only town that took 9-11 roses), did not know the number of scum, and did not know why people were making lists of people for?

What would you say was going through your mind as you made each of these sets of posts?

[President Eden]

ghug/Chaqa was the interaction. ghug has no reason to put Chaqa as top townread. Chaqa's playing nice with ghug. They both got guns, and while I'm not necessarily sure that ghug was going to hipfire Chaqa, I am very confident the reverse was true. There's a detente between them that makes no sense based on personal history or game state, and it strongly suggests they know they're on the same team. They're finding awkward reasons not to sus each other because they know they'd shoot each other if they weren't on the same team.

@President Eden: You just said you think the scum team is Brainbomb, Ghug, and Chaqa.

So here you are theorising that Scum!Chaqa was definitely going to shoot Scum!Ghug?

Please explain.

No. I'm saying that the expected move from them taking guns is to shoot each other, or at least for Chaqa to shoot ghug (ghug might not reciprocate). Instead they're being awkwardly and uncharacteristically nice to each other when neither is obvtowning in the thread enough to justify it. They're going out of their way not to sus each other so that they have an excuse not to shoot each other that covers for them being on the same team.

[President Eden]

I think this premise that everyone suspected or known to hold a gun is scum is supremely.flimsy and at best a horrendous reach. It relies on the conjecture that the scum team is unbelievably stupid (not impossible, but despite joking around some I don't actually believe that of anyone in this game). I immediately could see that the only way to move forward as town was to choose rose, and it does not seem probable that 2 or 3 members of scum failed to notice this, and then proceeded to talk about it after it was made clear that there were at most 2 guns in town.

It does not exonerate brainbomb, as his response to early pressure was erratic and highly unmatural (I state once again that I very much resonate with PE's argument that he thinks brainbomb was upset at having been implicated for mechanical reasons after the max 2 town gun reveal, rather than any in thread substance), but it does make me wonder the desperation PE is currently showing to "solve" the game.

I don't believe there is currently any reason to suspect that chaqa is scum. Not sure about ghug, but that just means I wouldn't elevate him over the remaining candidates as well. Curious, and I don't draw an immediate conclusion from this.

Why so dramatic? You're really rubbing me the wrong way with the sweeping overstatements.

It's not that everyone that has a gun is mafia, it's that they're significantly more likely to be, both based on what we know about how many people took roses and the general incentives mafia have to take guns in this setup. It is mechanically impossible for all of brainbomb, ghug, and Chaqa to be town if they all took guns. There's nothing "reaching" or "flimsy" about that.

Nor am I "desperate" to solve the game. I see things and I point them out. I don't get why you're shading my posts while agreeing with me.

[Hamilton Brian]

Well that has changed the direction of the thread somewhat.

The big assumption is that those three have claimed guns. The only one to outright claim a gun in game, I think, is chaqa. That belief rests in chaqa's believability. At this point I think it's worth taking them at their word.

Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?

[TheMadMonarch]

I see no harm to Town in a full claim.

I hard claim rose.

What? How?

[snowy801]

Why so dramatic? You're really rubbing me the wrong way with the sweeping overstatements.

It's not that everyone that has a gun is mafia, it's that they're significantly more likely to be, both based on what we know about how many people took roses and the general incentives mafia have to take guns in this setup. It is mechanically impossible for all of brainbomb, ghug, and Chaqa to be town if they all took guns. There's nothing "reaching" or "flimsy" about that.

Fortunately, I've never been one to care whether I "rub someone the wrong way" in the scumread sense. Though if I am ever perceived to be making someone's experience unpleasant, by all means let me know!

I tend to care less about what people say, and why people say it. It is true that under the base assumption you lay out, one in three has to be scum, which echoes the very first post you laid out with the 60-100%.

However, it is not known for certain that brainbomb, chaqa, or ghug has a gun. I would arbitrarily assign the following probabilities of those individuals possessing one:

bb: 80%
chaqa: 95%
ghug: 50%

Which is not to make some Bayesian probability appeal, simply to state that you hold a type of certainty in a world where such certainty does not exist. I have considered all the evidence you should have available and determined so, at any rate, though you may feel free to disagree.

Setting aside the issue of brainbomb, which I am as you noted wavering but inclined to agree, I am interested here in you. It is often difficult to discern definitive assertions between someone who actually knows something and someone who merely believes they know something (being on the internet I'm sure we're all familiar with this) but I believe you are expressing confidence you should not realistically have, which worries me.

And so I wonder why you make the claims you make. Could it simply be a ploy to gather a following? Certainly, you often read that nuances in public speeches are a lost cause and you should give them soundbites to rally around. So if you are simply trying to appear confident in this sea of unknowns, so be it. But your actions speak of agendas, which is what I would like to discuss.

Nor am I "desperate" to solve the game. I see things and I point them out. I don't get why you're shading my posts while agreeing with me.

If it were merely that, I do not think you would be claiming you have found all three mafia members 10 hours before deadline and slamming end votes. It is sufficient to most probably identify one scum member by end of day, you see, and as I stated earlier your chaqa-ghug connection is an unbelievable reach which I cannot find a justification for.

[snowy801]

I find it notable that worcej has yet to vote despite his contributions.

Would you say that this is customary for you? If so, who do you think you would hypothetically vote for if someone put a gun to your head and if not, what's different?

worcej, I would like to repose this question to you. I am very much interested in your response.

[Chaqa]

The chance I have a gun is actually 100%, snowy.

@food: I don’t think I ever said there were no guns? I said I picked a gun without having read the setup, which is true.

Eden’s point about me shooting ghug is also true. I had told him I was going to pick a gun and pop him, which I may still do, but it seems a little off now obsessed he is with it

[Jamiet99uk]

@President Eden: You just said you think the scum team is Brainbomb, Ghug, and Chaqa.

So here you are theorising that Scum!Chaqa was definitely going to shoot Scum!Ghug?

Please explain.

No. I'm saying that the expected move from them taking guns is to shoot each other, or at least for Chaqa to shoot ghug (ghug might not reciprocate). Instead they're being awkwardly and uncharacteristically nice to each other when neither is obvtowning in the thread enough to justify it. They're going out of their way not to sus each other so that they have an excuse not to shoot each other that covers for them being on the same team.

What makes you so sure that Chaqa with a gun would always target Ghug?

[Jamiet99uk]

Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?

That would be a highly dubious statement because it is guaranteed to be false. We know at least 9 town did take a rose.

[Jamiet99uk]

Eden’s point about me shooting ghug is also true. I had told him I was going to pick a gun and pop him.

Oh, ok then.

[snowy801]

Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?

That would be a highly dubious statement because it is guaranteed to be false. We know at least 9 town did take a rose.

No, he's saying exactly 11 town didn't take a rose. As in, chaqa said well we know there's not 11 roses because I have a gun. So it could be 10, 9, but not 11.

[Jamiet99uk]

Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?

That would be a highly dubious statement because it is guaranteed to be false. We know at least 9 town did take a rose.

No, he's saying exactly 11 town didn't take a rose. As in, chaqa said well we know there's not 11 roses because I have a gun. So it could be 10, 9, but not 11.

Oh. Then why didn't he just say "I purport that exactly 1 or 2 town chose guns" ?

That would have been a much clearer statement. The way he phrased it was weird.

Using the word "purport" always adds both emphasis and clarity.

[snowy801]

I could not tell you, except to reiterate chaqa's exact quote which I believe HB was pinging off.

Welp, I can safely say that 11 town didn’t pick a rose.

Rip me

But I suppose I'll let him speak for himself at this point. And Jamiet, nobody uses purport in everyday language.

[Chaqa]

I could not tell you, except to reiterate chaqa's exact quote which I believe HB was pinging off.

Welp, I can safely say that 11 town didn’t pick a rose.

Rip me

But I suppose I'll let him speak for himself at this point. And Jamiet, nobody uses purport in everyday language.

I don’t see what’s confusing at all about my statement.

11 town didn’t pick a rose.

Maybe 10 did.