MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Hamilton Brian]

There is a scenario where set up 1 is possible. See my recent post above.

I'd like to know how you came to consider it a possibility.

Your pointing it out together with Macca voting darg

If I bite the bullet this game I will still feel pretty happy with having had some impact. Even if it's wrong. It's taken some games but F..k Me I am pretty chuffed. I know, I know...no time to rest on laurels, but this is the most optimistic I've felt all game.

"high fives around the room"

[foodcoats]

It doesn't read like a typo, but this line (highlighted red) contradicts your read of me both before and after and is the line confusing me.

I don't know anymore. Leave it with me. Those posts were hours apart and if anything reflects the fluidity and confusion I've been suffering from.

I think what is important, as far as you are concerned, is that I tend to read you more as town than not.

HB, I want to help with your confusion.

As town, your goal is to vote for the people you believe are scum.

[Hamilton Brian]

##Unvote

There, hopefully food can stop letting me rent room in their head.

[foodcoats]

I'd like to know how you came to consider it a possibility.

Your pointing it out together with Macca voting darg

If I bite the bullet this game I will still feel pretty happy with having had some impact. Even if it's wrong. It's taken some games but F..k Me I am pretty chuffed. I know, I know...no time to rest on laurels, but this is the most optimistic I've felt all game.

"high fives around the room"

So the case against darg is that he has not yet been eaten by the werewolf, correct? Macca has specifically indicated they aren't properly following the game or the setups. Do we really think that Macca has made a genius play as the real cop, and is subtly trying to signal his copness by voting darg on the basis that darg has not been eaten by the WW - even though tons of people offered great reasons why the WW would strategically not yet go after darg?

[Chaqa]

I had a literal shower thought just now -

Why wasn’t Dargo roleblocked Night 1, but he was on subsequent nights?

Did scum actually believe his retraction, or did they realize they needed to have scum!Darg claim RB?

That second one only works if there is another cop claimant

[dargorygel]

The damo (nee HB) idea is logically possible.

@chaqa- perhaps they did necessarily believe my oh-so-clever retraction... but wondered? Maybe they thought I was just a VT trying to do a NK draw.

And I do believe it is 'normal' or at least frequent to have scum RB their kills. If so, they RBed Vecna (without knowing what he was) and ended up stopping an item from being sent.

[dargorygel]

The damo (nee HB) idea is logically possible.

@chaqa- perhaps they did necessarily believe my oh-so-clever retraction... but wondered? Maybe they thought I was just a VT trying to do a NK draw.

And I do believe it is 'normal' or at least frequent to have scum RB their kills. If so, they RBed Vecna (without knowing what he was) and ended up stopping an item from being sent.

*NOT necessarily

[Chaqa]

I still believe you for now but I'm watching you, old man

[rdrivera2005]

I can quote this in response to rdr asking why I think celaph is scummy.

CELAPH NEVER MAKES READS

I didn´t ask you why Celaph is scummy, I asked you why you think that specific message was scummy.
You have been teling why you scumread him all day long and I agrre with your reasoning but I also agree with Chaqa (I think, it´s Chaqa´s) analysis about his vote, which makes me want to not kill him today.

Let's look at it together.

I think it's towny that Damo had the confidence to go to stats immediately after hearing that it's scum indicative of him.

Note the construction of this sentence. He doesn't say "I town-read damo." He carefully mashes together someone else's scumread of damo into a possible townread of damo, but he is not clearly committed to either stance in terms of how he would slot damo.

celaph - correct me if I am wrong. Would you say you TOWNREAD damo?

That said, the results here are fairly meaningless. For one, knowing now that town rb can't really stop the mafia kill I can totally see them self-targeting especially N1. As such, I don't think we can necessarily assume that rdr or Chaqa are not rb. Additionally, the probabilities are so close together that any read besides straight stats should supersede this.

This is where I sum it up as "and therefore, nothing." This chunk says absolutely nothing. He concludes that we cannot conclude something necessarily. Do you know what the state of affairs is? That state of affairs is BEING TOWN. Being town, we cannot absolutely conclude ANYTHING.

celaph spewing this kind of garbage indicates that he doesn't care about town solving the game, and that he isn't even the headspace OF solving the game. If he was town, he would more rapidly dismiss this and turn it into something he could use to solve and help him advance the game state.

But doesn't it look kind of good? Doesn't it look like celaph is working away to solve the game? Except he isn't. He is not solving. He is spewing garbage nonsense.

I can agree with the first part, he is not giving his read on Damo, but I don´t agree with the second part. He gave a decent argument to why Damo math isn´t great and also pointed for using reads instead of Math (which isn´t helping him to escape the DK).

I think Celaph is far more hedgy this game then I remember him, but I also think you are in a deep tunnel on him. Maybe is good to have him as DK today to either get a scum or get him out of the spotlight, but we have only 2 miskills left (not accouting WW chomping either town or scum).

[rdrivera2005]

It's dumb

Dumb because it sets up darg getting chomped, WW making a mistake, and being one mistake closer to being outed? Or dumb because it hasn't prevented the killing of our other PRs so far?

Because there's no reason for non-cop town!darg to do it beyond exceptional incompetence.

In fact, if Dargo is town and not the cop (and there is another cop) he could have won the game for town. His claim is a lot worse if he is really the cop that have been complete uselles all game long (which I think is the sad truth).

[dargorygel]

I still believe you for now but I'm watching you, old man

ARE YOU CLAIMING WATCHER?????
Got you!
HA!
Aren't you reading the thread? The Watcher is DEAD!

[dargorygel]

Dumb because it sets up darg getting chomped, WW making a mistake, and being one mistake closer to being outed? Or dumb because it hasn't prevented the killing of our other PRs so far?

Because there's no reason for non-cop town!darg to do it beyond exceptional incompetence.

In fact, if Dargo is town and not the cop (and there is another cop) he could have won the game for town. His claim is a lot worse if he is really the cop that have been complete uselles all game long (which I think is the sad truth).

Bona and RDR seem to have a different definition of 'incompetence.'

[Chaqa]

I can't tell if these continual celaph and Macca wagons are a good or bad thing.

[rdrivera2005]

I'd like to know how you came to consider it a possibility.

Your pointing it out together with Macca voting darg

If I bite the bullet this game I will still feel pretty happy with having had some impact. Even if it's wrong. It's taken some games but F..k Me I am pretty chuffed. I know, I know...no time to rest on laurels, but this is the most optimistic I've felt all game.

"high fives around the room"

Sometimes I just don´t get what you are saying at all. But I like your excitement.

[rdrivera2005]

I had a literal shower thought just now -

Why wasn’t Dargo roleblocked Night 1, but he was on subsequent nights?

Did scum actually believe his retraction, or did they realize they needed to have scum!Darg claim RB?

That second one only works if there is another cop claimant

Another possible reason is they believed the claim and expected the WW to do the dirty job.

[rdrivera2005]

Because there's no reason for non-cop town!darg to do it beyond exceptional incompetence.

In fact, if Dargo is town and not the cop (and there is another cop) he could have won the game for town. His claim is a lot worse if he is really the cop that have been complete uselles all game long (which I think is the sad truth).

Bona and RDR seem to have a different definition of 'incompetence.'

Nothing personal, but I already told you I think your cop claim is pretty bad if you are the real cop.
If you are town and not the cop, you got a scum to be D1 kill and at least 3 nights for real cop get scans. Pretty great outcome.
If you are scum, it´s a decent claim.

[rdrivera2005]

I can't tell if these continual celaph and Macca wagons are a good or bad thing.

I am pretty sure we will have to DK Macca at some point as they are just not following the game and having them at kilo will be a huge risk.

[celaph]

@Chaqa, thoughts on Jamie?

Also, you're doing that thing again where you don't provide your own thoughts, you just ask questions and parrot other people. It's beginning to make me doubt your towniness.

CELAPH WHAT DO YOU THINK OF JAMIE

@Chaqa, thoughts on Jamie?

Also, you're doing that thing again where you don't provide your own thoughts, you just ask questions and parrot other people. It's beginning to make me doubt your towniness.

CELAPH WHAT DO YOU THINK OF JAMIE

I agreed with Damo's description of him feeling off. His reaction to everything seems to be negative and critical. If you had to figure out Jamie's read from his posts you'd get that practically everyone would be null to scum. And many of the times that he has noted a good comment from someone, the comment he's highlighting is negatively targeting someone else. I asked Chaqa about him because I would include him and Maniac along with the 3 that Chaqa mentioned as the pool that we should be DKing from today. Jamie being probably my first choice at the moment.

[celaph]

Whether we give celaph another day or two depends on if we want to take a higher risk now or later. I tend to think we should try to eliminate the more obvious targets first.

We could request the Werewolf attempt to crunch celaph as a VT. If he is a VT, it would basically be a mis-kill. If he isn't, we can assume he's probably mafia (unless he's the town RBr, which would be stinky, but I don't get that vibe based on who has been roleblocked).

My theory being if we're going to take a miskill on celaph at some point, we should at least make it a conditional one...

If celaph is alive tomorrow, we could assume he isn't VT. But it depends on the Werewolf being on board.

Feels like I'm being set-up for a miskill tomorrow.

[Maniac]

FWIW I think WW hasn't killed darg because Darg is tying up the mafia's RB. Kill Darg and mafia might stop WW doing what he wants to do later. Also scum are kicking our asses, WW might not want to thin the herd yet.

I'm working on the assumption that mafia made all the kills because if they were WW kills they are damn good guesses. I suppose there is a scenerio where WW killed BB when he claimed WW and WW looked at him closely and guessed right but that stretches credulity as it would also happen to be the same night that mafia got RB (even when they could send a back-up killer) or held their kill (v unlikely)

So if scum made the three kills why haven't they janitored one yet? They are good enough to hit 3/3 PRs yet leak the info to us. If one of those kills had been janitored we'd be still guessing the set-up.

I have no time for a darg wagon. It might be a good idea later, but now is not the time. Say he is VT helping our real cop, killing him harms us massively. Let him be.

I'm less confident about Celaph at the moment, but will stay on him. He is right about my fuzzy thought process. I had him as scum based on BB, then when ghug pointed finger at him the only thing I could come up with was he could be WW or had tried to kill WW but how could scum try to kill WW if all their kills went through? So I'm left with staying on Celaph because one of BB and Ghug could have info, but not both of them.