MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[rdrivera2005]

##VOTE damo666

Just outed yourself as not being town roleblocker.

Another reason people shouldn't be voting me or Jamie.

Following your own logic you shouldn't be voting me (or Chaqa). Why the double standard?

[Bonatogether]

Setup 5 is out.

Could someone make a list of the setups that are out, are we down to one yet? I haven't been following.

Imagine reading the setup

[Bonatogether]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

why is 1. unlikely?

[Bonatogether]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

Do you have a suspicion of what darg is?

scum or ww

[rdrivera2005]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

I think it's towny that Damo had the confidence to go to stats immediately after hearing that it's scum indicative of him. That said, the results here are fairly meaningless. For one, knowing now that town rb can't really stop the mafia kill I can totally see them self-targeting especially N1. As such, I don't think we can necessarily assume that rdr or Chaqa are not rb. Additionally, the probabilities are so close together that any read besides straight stats should supersede this.

I really like this post from Celaph. Can we just don't kill him today?

[damo666]

##VOTE damo666

Just outed yourself as not being town roleblocker.

Another reason people shouldn't be voting me or Jamie.

Following your own logic you shouldn't be voting me (or Chaqa). Why the double standard?

I've already intimated I am not the town blocker so I am giving nothing away.

[celaph]

Time for an updated readslist

Bona assuming town due to D1 vote

celaph early vote on Demon a +ve, escaping the dk multiple times a -ve, content small +ve. overall slight townlean

Chaqa don't regard Demon vote a +ve since chaqa so fond of bussing, N3 rb a possible -ve, recent pots a strong +ve, overall a null I guess

darg assume cop

food sounded strongly town but running out of steam, still a townlean though

Ham very very chatty, seems hunty and inquistive, almost like he's trying to change meta, was townleaning but just might be crafty scum, overall null

Jamie seems out of character to me, possible ww or Janitor? I scumread Jamie but cannot vote him just in case I was town roleblocked making Jamie scum roleblocked and therfore likely town (though possibly werewolf). IF TOWN ROLEBLOCKER REVEALS THEY BLOCKED JAMIE I WILL VOTE JAMIE, however I respect their right to remain silent. I just hope they don't go to their grave without revealing.

Kak hard to read but giving him a town pass for now due to Demon voting him

kgray only positive is the Demon vote but could be a bus, I have an odd 'all is not right' feel about kgray - slight scumlean

Macca low participation and strange votes make them hard to read - null

Maniac I dunno, I'm all over the place with Maniac. Could be ww. ???

rdr not very active, nothing to go on, roleblock N2 a -ve, null-

yav scumlean although I can't really explain why. Hasn't done too much towny.

Summary Goodie at top to Baddie at bottom

damo
darg
Bona
Kak
celaph
food
HB
Chaqa
Macca
Maniac
rdr
kgray
yav
Jamie

I'm liking this reads list and agree with it mostly.

I'm not getting the sense that food is running out of steam. I think that while his call last night to swap out the wagons had a towny perspective to it. I don't think we should go so far is to be voting up townreads, but I agree that scum seem to be hiding well. I still think that Maniac is looking sus, but he looked better last night.

While I agree that the evidence is not as hard, I think kak gets town points for the way that he handled the gun claim D2. He was comfortable absorbing pressure and his handling of it felt natural.

I agree that Bona is a bad DK for the next couple days, but then we have to start considering a bus here especially since he's shown an ability to make plays as scum that one doesn't expect.

Lastly, Chaqa's recent sus on kgray reminds me of how she was shaded in M62 as town for moving her vote around. I agree that her play isn't perfect, but she feels relatively normal. That said, I haven't played with scum kgray before so maybe I've just been pocketed here.

[rdrivera2005]

I should add that D1 I was online and around at EoD. My attention was focused elsewhere, but I was aware of the state of the game and felt no need to move.

Chaqa said as much here:

I know at least celaph was online at EoD, if i remember the online list correctly (this is a possible case of bad memory, but I'm not sure).

I was also online at EOD1 and have locked myself to vote Demon over Kaka if needed.

Overall, I like your analisys Chaqa, and really think Celaph isn´t the best choice for today. Yav, HB and Maniac are my preferences, in this order.
I still have some suspicions on Damo, but I can see him being town. Even Maniac. I honestly can´t see a world where Yav or HB are town.

[foodcoats]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

I think it's towny that Damo had the confidence to go to stats immediately after hearing that it's scum indicative of him. That said, the results here are fairly meaningless. For one, knowing now that town rb can't really stop the mafia kill I can totally see them self-targeting especially N1. As such, I don't think we can necessarily assume that rdr or Chaqa are not rb. Additionally, the probabilities are so close together that any read besides straight stats should supersede this.

I really like this post from Celaph. Can we just don't kill him today?

How do you like this post rdr?

It says “blah blah blah and in conclusion absolutely nothing.”

This is insanely scummy. Celaph has been getting away with this kind of inactive-activity the last two days.

[Chaqa]

Food, what do you think of the following:

Yavu

Hamilton

Macca

[celaph]

My point is that I think there are "strong scum," and our wagons are looking for "weak scum." I think there is consensus on some "strong town" reads that are very possibly wrong, and we need to push against our preconceptions as town because scum has been able to wrest the advantage that we gained D1.

Alright, makes sense. Probably be good for us to drop reads with degrees of town/scum and then do some pushing around that on D4.

Basically town should be looking at myself, kgray, Chaqa, ghug, and Kakarroto, who have gotten no push at all yet.

Also, this request to have pressure thrown at himself feels really towny. I'd expect scum food to be more willing to accept that he's been widely townread and not call attention to himself.

[rdrivera2005]

I think it's towny that Damo had the confidence to go to stats immediately after hearing that it's scum indicative of him. That said, the results here are fairly meaningless. For one, knowing now that town rb can't really stop the mafia kill I can totally see them self-targeting especially N1. As such, I don't think we can necessarily assume that rdr or Chaqa are not rb. Additionally, the probabilities are so close together that any read besides straight stats should supersede this.

I really like this post from Celaph. Can we just don't kill him today?

How do you like this post rdr?

It says “blah blah blah and in conclusion absolutely nothing.”

This is insanely scummy. Celaph has been getting away with this kind of inactive-activity the last two days.

Food, Celaph is the leading wagon by far and there is no competing wagon. He is dismissing a reason to get a wagon going on me (that I know that would be a town wagon) which isn´t something I expect scum will do.
And Damo math isn´t wrong, so my wagon could get some traction along the day and he is dismissing this without any scum reason I can see.

Why do you think this post was scummy?

[Hamilton Brian]

It seems kind of scummy to me that you are maintaining a vote on a 5 vote wagon when the next wagon is at 1 and you have explicitly said you don't think that the wagon you are on is scum?

I'd say it's scummier to perform that way with about an hour to go until EOD as opposed to now when we have bunches of hours. If you think it's important that I signal something with my vote, then I'm open to hearing that, but I don't think it's particularly necessary right now.

[damo666]

Oh shit.

Set up 1 is possible if Jamie and darg both scum.

N1 scum RBs me, Jamie fake claims

N2 scum RBs rdr, darg fake claims

N3 scum RBs chaqa, darg fake claims

This means we have

i) a cop with loads of info and would explain why Macca is voting darg (not say I shouldn't have said this, in this scenario I thik darg would have noticed)
ii) rdr and Chaqa are both either town or ww

Macca if you are cop time to reveal is now.

If anyone else is cop (Bona) probaly also time to reveal.

I still think set up 3 is way more likely but the above is possible.

[celaph]

Food, what do you think of the following:

Yavu

Hamilton

Macca

@Chaqa, thoughts on Jamie?

[Hamilton Brian]

Jesus.

Kill me next. I suck.

Why is this your reaction to seeing ghug die to ask to be killed?

Being emotive and pissed off. I didn't really mean it and I doubt anyone would take me seriously anyway.

[Hamilton Brian]

Okay, sorry if I am not being clear.

Can you just explain to me what your current read on celaph is? Town, null or scum?

I appreciate the apology, and I am sorry for flying off the handle toward you.

I am reading Celaph more town than scum and the proof in that, for me, is based on the D1 vote. I wrote more about in a just-previous post following Chaqa's D1 vote analysis.

And now I need to give you a reread around your Maniac thoughts, because you finally landed on Flum with a "scum are on Maniac."

Given I read Maniac as more town, and I think Celaph is scum, I think you're right. I think there was one on there. I'll bet you there were more on Flum. Let's check back when the game is done.

It seems you now townread me which is consistent with your read yesterday. Was one of these a typo or are has something changed? I'm confused here.

I lean more toward town with you than scum. If you're scum, that D1 vote could be a coup d'grace. Can you focus in on the potential typo?

[Hamilton Brian]

Okay, so you think celaph is town based on your read of D1 votes.

Who will you vote for instead?

I am really unsure who I will vote for right now.

I still think something stinks amongst all the roleblock claims. It's not hard-confirmed that we are NOT in setup 1.

So a possible candidate, for me, could come from either Damo, Jamie, Darg, Rivera.

Are you mad? That would require liars every night. Why on earth would that happen?

Who knows! Here's my MO, and it's in RL as well. I speculate out loud. Drives my wife crazy but it's because I need to verbalize different scenarios, options, whatever. I do it with her a lot of the time because when I gauge her exasperated response, that tells me, "Brian, that wouldn't be a good move."

I write these things to then be able to check for validation, "Hey Brian, you might be on to something, " or invalidation, such as "Are you mad?"

[celaph]

I appreciate the apology, and I am sorry for flying off the handle toward you.

I am reading Celaph more town than scum and the proof in that, for me, is based on the D1 vote. I wrote more about in a just-previous post following Chaqa's D1 vote analysis.

And now I need to give you a reread around your Maniac thoughts, because you finally landed on Flum with a "scum are on Maniac."

Given I read Maniac as more town, and I think Celaph is scum, I think you're right. I think there was one on there. I'll bet you there were more on Flum. Let's check back when the game is done.

It seems you now townread me which is consistent with your read yesterday. Was one of these a typo or are has something changed? I'm confused here.

I lean more toward town with you than scum. If you're scum, that D1 vote could be a coup d'grace. Can you focus in on the potential typo?

It doesn't read like a typo, but this line (highlighted red) contradicts your read of me both before and after and is the line confusing me.

[Chaqa]

Food, what do you think of the following:

Yavu

Hamilton

Macca

@Chaqa, thoughts on Jamie?

I agree he seems a bit off, and I haven't seen good reasons for it. He's been one of my top Werewolf reads all game (along with Maniac). If he's scum, he could be scum with Maniac. It's also possible Damo's theory on setup 1 is true, but it would require there to be another cop claimant.

I would say regardless he's unlikely to be town.