MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

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kgray
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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4861 Post by kgray » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:54 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:41 pm
kgray wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:35 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:56 am


Refers back to your statement about the dead not having good reads, or something like that. Foodcoats came at me trashing following brain, ghug. That's it.
Well I do think you're placing too much weight on dead people's reads. But I was curious about the way you were shading food for picking up my argument and am trying to figure out what you were implying. Do you think he's scum trying to encourage me to suspect you? Do you think the argument has weight?
Nope; I was simply referring to your words/advice to me, to them. That’s it. Conversational.
Sounded accusatory to me.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4862 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:56 pm

yavuzovic wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:22 am
foodcoats wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:12 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:26 am
Is there any amount of evidence to suggest this EoD was T v S? Does Maniac's self-preservation vote look scummier than town?
FWIW I jumped onto Flum even though I read Maniac as scummier because I read the people on Maniac’s wagon as being scum.

If I maintain my reads I have to believe Maniac was more likely town. But I personally feel very disrupted and feel a need to look at towncore and variously held assumptions instead, like darg’s claim, ghug’s pseudoclear, and my townreads of Chaqa and kgray.
This is a very townish reason to vote. @foodcoats Do you still scumread the people on Maniac or did you start to think that the scumteam was on Fluminator
The end of D3 has left me feeling it might've been TvT, but basically because... my reads are obviously wrong? The scum was not doing what I thought it was doing. And I know that I am town, and I was a key vote that turned the momentum against Flum. So... if scum were rushing Maniac... but Flum was town... was it TvT? I feel like I need to dig deeper.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4863 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:58 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 pm
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:42 pm
##vote chaqa
ya'll wildin
what's that mean?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4864 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:59 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:40 am
Maniac wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:28 am
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:44 am
Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.
Have you factored in that because Rdr and Chaqa were roleblocked when a kill took place that they are unlikely Ninja? I know scum could have a reserve killer or WW might have made the kills. Because all kills have been on specific PRs I doubt any of them were WW which begs the question why? Is Chaqa more likely WW because WW is freer to visit players now Watcher has been killed? There is a chance that TRBr didn’t roleblock anyone on one of the nights and claimed RB. It’s possible they were worried they would hit the other PRs. How does that affect your conclusions?
I think the hypothesis that town blocker held and claimed is unlikely and can be ignored. I fail to see the benefit.

That rdr and celaph are probably not Ninja is a very good point. The same is ofc true of Jamie and I. I will rework the numbers.

The apparent lack of WW activity might indicate one of the blockees is WW with Chaqa the most likely.

I assume nobody has yet received a failed ww message.

Thanks for your input Maniac. You've got me thinking.
HOLD UP.

It is ENTIRELY reasonable the TRB would holster when they did not know what other PRs were out there. What if they just blocked a town PR?

Hmm... HMM...

Not that it had to happen but both like... damo and kgray I think? Have dismissed any theorizing around the TRB doing anything but "dum de dum dum ploink!" moves. But if the TRB were smart, would they do that? I, foodcoats, WOULD do that, because I suck. But would a smart TRB?

Hmm...

Hmm...

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4865 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:02 pm

Macca573 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:51 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
very interesting eh? No watcher now. There is no downside to doing it unless he's lying.

##VOTE dargo

(yeah, I changed my mind since the last vote. Would vote for either though)
But there is a downside. WW can get info from the cop to help with later kills. WW also needs mafia to be losing, so WW can get alone with town.

It's ENTIRELY reasonable for the WW to be holding off on kills at the moment - especially because the role has the caveat of getting outed if they mess up twice in a row.

Honestly I bet werewolf is just sailing right now.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4866 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:02 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:56 pm
yavuzovic wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:22 am
foodcoats wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:12 pm


FWIW I jumped onto Flum even though I read Maniac as scummier because I read the people on Maniac’s wagon as being scum.

If I maintain my reads I have to believe Maniac was more likely town. But I personally feel very disrupted and feel a need to look at towncore and variously held assumptions instead, like darg’s claim, ghug’s pseudoclear, and my townreads of Chaqa and kgray.
This is a very townish reason to vote. @foodcoats Do you still scumread the people on Maniac or did you start to think that the scumteam was on Fluminator
The end of D3 has left me feeling it might've been TvT, but basically because... my reads are obviously wrong? The scum was not doing what I thought it was doing. And I know that I am town, and I was a key vote that turned the momentum against Flum. So... if scum were rushing Maniac... but Flum was town... was it TvT? I feel like I need to dig deeper.
I think flipping Maniac would give us the info we need to solve most of this game. If he flips scum, we know that he was saved. If he flips WW, we've removed the WW from the PoE. If he flips town, we know that scum probably were actually either not involved in Day 3 or maybe they were making moves to save celaph or Macca.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4867 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:02 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:02 pm
Macca573 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:51 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
very interesting eh? No watcher now. There is no downside to doing it unless he's lying.

##VOTE dargo

(yeah, I changed my mind since the last vote. Would vote for either though)
But there is a downside. WW can get info from the cop to help with later kills. WW also needs mafia to be losing, so WW can get alone with town.

It's ENTIRELY reasonable for the WW to be holding off on kills at the moment - especially because the role has the caveat of getting outed if they mess up twice in a row.

Honestly I bet werewolf is just sailing right now.
MACCA WEREWOLF

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4868 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:03 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:58 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 pm
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:42 pm
##vote chaqa
ya'll wildin
what's that mean?
I'll translate it to boomer for ya :razz:

"Doth hath been knocketh off your rocker"

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4869 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:04 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:00 am
I won't bore you with the numbers but if we assume that anyone blocked is not Ninja then they have a greater probability of being town than those not blocked. So we should not vote me, Jamie , rdr or Chaqa.

Wrt the WW I think it just as likely they tried to eat journalist Maniac as be blocked so shelving the Chaqa ww theory for the moment.

Apologies to rdr (and Chaqa).

##unvote
Aren't you just saying that any person in the game is more likely to be town?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4870 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:04 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:24 am
Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac
Any other reason:

THE WEREWOLF IS A GOOD STRATEGIST.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4871 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:06 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:59 pm
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:40 am
Maniac wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:28 am


Have you factored in that because Rdr and Chaqa were roleblocked when a kill took place that they are unlikely Ninja? I know scum could have a reserve killer or WW might have made the kills. Because all kills have been on specific PRs I doubt any of them were WW which begs the question why? Is Chaqa more likely WW because WW is freer to visit players now Watcher has been killed? There is a chance that TRBr didn’t roleblock anyone on one of the nights and claimed RB. It’s possible they were worried they would hit the other PRs. How does that affect your conclusions?
I think the hypothesis that town blocker held and claimed is unlikely and can be ignored. I fail to see the benefit.

That rdr and celaph are probably not Ninja is a very good point. The same is ofc true of Jamie and I. I will rework the numbers.

The apparent lack of WW activity might indicate one of the blockees is WW with Chaqa the most likely.

I assume nobody has yet received a failed ww message.

Thanks for your input Maniac. You've got me thinking.
HOLD UP.

It is ENTIRELY reasonable the TRB would holster when they did not know what other PRs were out there. What if they just blocked a town PR?

Hmm... HMM...

Not that it had to happen but both like... damo and kgray I think? Have dismissed any theorizing around the TRB doing anything but "dum de dum dum ploink!" moves. But if the TRB were smart, would they do that? I, foodcoats, WOULD do that, because I suck. But would a smart TRB?

Hmm...

Hmm...
If TRB held that implies a fake blockclaim. What would be the point of that?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4872 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:06 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:54 am
kgray wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:27 am
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:14 am
Heh, bot read that as a vote for Maniac. Sorry pal, today's not your day...I think.

##vote celaph

I'd like to press those that have been coasting to lay it on the line.
Do you think celaph is coasting the most out of everybody?
Now I think I see where foodcoats was getting the "coasting" business. It wasn't necessarily related to Celaph but for some other people that seem barely present.
Ah so you're voting celaph in order to pressure people who are not celaph? Is that correct?

Who did you mean to pressure by voting celaph? Why did you think voting celaph would pressure these people?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4873 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:07 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:56 am
kgray wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:42 am
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:31 am
I am what I am. I will stand what I said at that point in time.

Look at you picking up kgray's argument and trying to run with it.
Can you talk about that last sentence some more please?
Refers back to your statement about the dead not having good reads, or something like that. Foodcoats came at me trashing following brain, ghug. That's it.
kgray's not dead. Did you have her as your kill target last night and switch to ghug and forgot and slipped here?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4874 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:08 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:04 pm
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:00 am
I won't bore you with the numbers but if we assume that anyone blocked is not Ninja then they have a greater probability of being town than those not blocked. So we should not vote me, Jamie , rdr or Chaqa.

Wrt the WW I think it just as likely they tried to eat journalist Maniac as be blocked so shelving the Chaqa ww theory for the moment.

Apologies to rdr (and Chaqa).

##unvote
Aren't you just saying that any person in the game is more likely to be town?
This no longer applies due to the Mafia NK being unblockable. Back to the original.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4875 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:09 pm

There's 14 players left, with a spread of 9-4-1 (T-S-WW).

I think maybe the reason WW isn't chomping Darg is that they have concluded at this point it's in the WW's best interest to be working with town, or as if they are town, instead of chomping townies. If the WW did or had eat Dargo, then assuming a mis-kill today, we would be at 6-4-1 tomorrow, which would be really close to a no-win situation for town/WW.

So I think WW Is deliberately holding their kills, not that the WW has been prevented from doing kills. I also know this is doubly true because I am not the Werewolf and the Werewolf did not kill Dargo.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4876 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:14 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:38 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:21 pm
I wish there were a proven way to get through this.

Doctor claims.

Immediately wagon the 4 claimants.

See how the wagons shift at EOD.

Keep going back to the good guessing that scum have done. They haven’t swung at, and missed, any of the claimants. Why not? Were brain and ghug so “good” to be better than a shot at a claimant?
Except there ain't not no doctor!
:o

I was thinking your logic was looking awful today, damo. And here we have you confirming you are scum!

Great.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4877 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:16 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:14 pm
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:38 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:21 pm
I wish there were a proven way to get through this.

Doctor claims.

Immediately wagon the 4 claimants.

See how the wagons shift at EOD.

Keep going back to the good guessing that scum have done. They haven’t swung at, and missed, any of the claimants. Why not? Were brain and ghug so “good” to be better than a shot at a claimant?
Except there ain't not no doctor!
:o

I was thinking your logic was looking awful today, damo. And here we have you confirming you are scum!

Great.
Srsly damo how do you know Jamie wasn't lying the night you were allegedly blocked

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4878 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:17 pm

##VOTE damo666

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4879 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:24 pm

##CALL GM

If the Janitor attempted to clean up and was roleblocked, and the person they targeted still died, would the Janitor lose their "charge," or would they still have a charge to use on a future night?
Janitor:
You are the JANITOR. Each day you must vote for a suspect. Once per game, at night, you may clean up the body of another player by PM’ing the GM with the order ##JANITOR <NAME>. At the end of the night, if that player dies, you will receive a report from the GM informing you of their role and any items that they had possessed. Their role will NOT be publicly revealed. If that player does NOT die, you may attempt to clean again in future nights. At night you can talk to the other Mafia in the Mafia QT at <LINK>. You win when the Werewolf and all of the Town have been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from happening.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4880 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:42 pm

kgray wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:47 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:21 pm
I wish there were a proven way to get through this.

Doctor claims.

Immediately wagon the 4 claimants.

See how the wagons shift at EOD.

Keep going back to the good guessing that scum have done. They haven’t swung at, and missed, any of the claimants. Why not? Were brain and ghug so “good” to be better than a shot at a claimant?
What...? You want our PR claims to be the competing wagons at EOD? That's outrageous. I don't believe you think that's a good idea.
It's irrelevant to me if you think I think it's a good idea. I'm putting it out there to see if it has any merit or not. We've lost 3 PRs out of 5 (not including Flum/Miller) so even with that math, I think we still need to be looking at those 4 claimants. Unless I am totally misunderstanding something, it's a better strategy than flailing around taking guesses at people or letting scum drive the misskill narratives.

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