MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Jamiet99uk]

What if the roles weren't assigned at random and scum can notice it? I know I shouldn't be suspecting the GM, but I can't stop thinking on this.

You should be ashamed of yourself for even saying this.

This is an insult to HR's integrity and you should apologise to him.

[Hamilton Brian]

I am feeling less confident in brain's read of celaph... I might have been falling into the "dead folk know more" syndrome.

I have been so confident in brain's read...until I go back to voting on Day 1. Now I need to reread to see if there was a reason for the early vote. However, Celaph was on Demon as their first and only vote. Their Day 1 was low volume, and they didn't suggest they were going to be missing EOD, but the vote was dropped with less than 3 hours ago.

Either Celaph is pretty damn townie for this or got a fierce tongue-lashing in scumQT.

[Hamilton Brian]

Furthermore, to their vote they wrote:
"I don't think that darg is a good wagon for the day. I think it's most likely that he will be flipped rather soon and even if he's scum he's forced to give us reliable info to stay alive.

I don't hate the Bona wagon, but he's been both sharper and more active than RHK and I like the people on this wagon more."

Not compelling, but I wouldn't expect D1 votes to be that grounded. Liked the people on this wagon more Those people being kgray, vecna, and food at the time. Scum flipped with a confirmed town flip on there.

[Jamiet99uk]

Maybe I missed something, but why would we do this?

Because NKills occurred while these blocked. Ninja most likely NK culprit.

As I just said:

THE BACKUP KILLER EXISTS!!! RB WILL NOT STOP MAFIA KILLS!!!

Where is this stated?

There is nothing in the setup info that says the Mafia member carrying out the NK cannot be roleblocked.

[Jamiet99uk]

Because NKills occurred while these blocked. Ninja most likely NK culprit.

As I just said:

THE BACKUP KILLER EXISTS!!! RB WILL NOT STOP MAFIA KILLS!!!

Where is this stated?

There is nothing in the setup info that says the Mafia member carrying out the NK cannot be roleblocked.

##CALL GM?

[BobMcBob]

As I just said:

THE BACKUP KILLER EXISTS!!! RB WILL NOT STOP MAFIA KILLS!!!

Where is this stated?

There is nothing in the setup info that says the Mafia member carrying out the NK cannot be roleblocked.

##CALL GM?

The mafia NK cannot be roleblocked as long as there is more than 1 mafia member remaining. The kill will always fall back on another mafia member if possible if the intended killer is roleblocked.

[Hamilton Brian]

So the kill happens regardless. I think this requires a closer look to those roleblock claims, especially if we're in setup one, which only scum will know right now.

[Jamiet99uk]

Where is this stated?

There is nothing in the setup info that says the Mafia member carrying out the NK cannot be roleblocked.

##CALL GM?

The mafia NK cannot be roleblocked as long as there is more than 1 mafia member remaining. The kill will always fall back on another mafia member if possible if the intended killer is roleblocked.

Well that's an unusual buff to the Mafia team that HR totally didn't mention when he submitted this for approval, but ok thanks for clarifying.

[Hamilton Brian]

Setup 1: 0 roleblocker/janitor (unproven)
setup 2: 0 inventor/ninja (we know this is out)
setup 3: 0 doctor/goon (unproven)
setup 4: 0 watcher/driver (we know this is out)
setup 5: 0 journalist/godfather (we know this is out)
setup 6: 0 cop/stalker (we know this is out)


So we're either in 1 or 3. No one should be claiming to be the doc, but I think it's worth it to put the RB claimants up, especially considering how none of them have been NK'ed.

[Jamiet99uk]

##CALL GM?

The mafia NK cannot be roleblocked as long as there is more than 1 mafia member remaining. The kill will always fall back on another mafia member if possible if the intended killer is roleblocked.

Well that's an unusual buff to the Mafia team that HR totally didn't mention when he submitted this for approval, but ok thanks for clarifying.

That is, I see it's in the final setup document, but it's a non-Normal feature that was not mentioned or highlighted.

I need to finish writing my article on "How to write a Normal setup".

[Jamiet99uk]

Setup 1: 0 roleblocker/janitor (unproven)
setup 2: 0 inventor/ninja (we know this is out)
setup 3: 0 doctor/goon (unproven)
setup 4: 0 watcher/driver (we know this is out)
setup 5: 0 journalist/godfather (we know this is out)
setup 6: 0 cop/stalker (we know this is out)

So we're either in 1 or 3. No one should be claiming to be the doc, but I think it's worth it to put the RB claimants up, especially considering how none of them have been NK'ed.

I am certain we are in Setup 3 unless there is no Town Roleblocker in which case Damo is lying.

[damo666]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

Perhaps I've forgotten something. Why do we think Maniac could be the WW. I understand that Chaqa was RB'd, but why Maniac?

(I have a vague memory of reading why and possibly agreeing, but I can't find it.)

Also, I dislike this strategy because:

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Where I assume "we" means "he".

we should have been ww

Sorry

[kgray]

I would also like to rd to write his thoughts openly, if you are mafia like ghug is suggesting, you shouldn't deny, and if you are town, you would want to do that anyway

I don't understand what you meant with this. I have been writing my thoughts as openly as I can, so if you have something you don't get just ask.

Currently I am scumreading Yav and Maniac and I keep flip floping on HB, Jamiet and Damo. This are the one's I want to get in the block today.
I also fail to have a solid read on Celaph, Macca and Bona.

I townread Dargo, you, Kgray, Food and Chaqa.

I can't help starting to think something I shouldn't.

How scum was able to hit PR after PR each night. Either scum are brilliant at PR reading or really lucky. But looking all PR and the one scum that flipped plus the Cop claimant they are all experienced players.

What if the roles weren't assigned at random and scum can notice it? I know I shouldn't be suspecting the GM, but I can't stop thinking on this.

Yeah, no. HR would never rig the game. And even if he did, how in the world would the scumteam notice? You think he'd tell them who the PRs are? What'd even be the point of playing?

[Hamilton Brian]

Won’t count that as a slip!

[Chaqa]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

I wish the bot would let me search all games at once because I know for a fact Damo has used math as a vote justification as scum before and been called for it.

[kgray]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

Neither you nor Chaqa have obvtowned (sorry ghug) and no other player has obvscummed so I see you and Chaqa as the 2 best targets today.

Darg is obviously off the table as should Jamie and me be.
Bona and kgray shouldn't be contemplated because of the crucial timing of their D1 votes.
Food screams town.
Celaph, Macca, Ham and Maniac are possibles but without additional evidence I see no reason to vote any of them ahead of you or Chaqa.

I admit that I can't follow all your analysis... but I don't understand why you and Jamie are off the table but Rivera and Chaqa aren't? Is there a simple answer for that?

[Hamilton Brian]

I wish there were a proven way to get through this.

Doctor claims.

Immediately wagon the 4 claimants.

See how the wagons shift at EOD.

Keep going back to the good guessing that scum have done. They haven’t swung at, and missed, any of the claimants. Why not? Were brain and ghug so “good” to be better than a shot at a claimant?

[kgray]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

very interesting eh? No watcher now. There is no downside to doing it unless he's lying.

##VOTE dargo

(yeah, I changed my mind since the last vote. Would vote for either though)

There are plenty of reasons for the werewolf to hold their guess and darg not being the cop is not at the top of that list.

[damo666]

Setup 1: 0 roleblocker/janitor (unproven)
setup 2: 0 inventor/ninja (we know this is out)
setup 3: 0 doctor/goon (unproven)
setup 4: 0 watcher/driver (we know this is out)
setup 5: 0 journalist/godfather (we know this is out)
setup 6: 0 cop/stalker (we know this is out)

So we're either in 1 or 3. No one should be claiming to be the doc, but I think it's worth it to put the RB claimants up, especially considering how none of them have been NK'ed.

I am certain we are in Setup 3 unless there is no Town Roleblocker in which case Damo is lying.

Set up 1 would require
1) Jamie lying AND
2) rdr or darg lying AND
3) Chaqa or darg lying

This is so unlikely it can be ignored.

We are in Set Up 3

[damo666]

Where is this stated?

There is nothing in the setup info that says the Mafia member carrying out the NK cannot be roleblocked.

##CALL GM?

The mafia NK cannot be roleblocked as long as there is more than 1 mafia member remaining. The kill will always fall back on another mafia member if possible if the intended killer is roleblocked.

So my original stats apply.

We should be voting rdr or Chaqa