MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

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Bonatogether
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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4741 Post by Bonatogether » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 am

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
cause dargo is not the cop

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4742 Post by kgray » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:47 am

Bonatogether wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
cause dargo is not the cop
What did you think about kak's suggestion that darg could still be town protecting the real cop?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4743 Post by dargorygel » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:54 am

Bonatogether wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
cause dargo is not the cop
So you can narrow down who the WW is by who does not believe I am the cop?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4744 Post by Bonatogether » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:10 am

Kakarroto wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:53 pm
"we should" ... does nothing

but always saying
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:19 pm
kgray and celaph scumteammmmmmm
if I had these strong thoughts, I'd vote the heck out of it. But alright, you do you.
Am I correct in assuming this means you don't have strong thoughts/opinions?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4745 Post by Bonatogether » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:19 am

kgray wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:47 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
cause dargo is not the cop
What did you think about kak's suggestion that darg could still be town protecting the real cop?
It's dumb

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4746 Post by Bonatogether » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:19 am

dargorygel wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:54 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
cause dargo is not the cop
So you can narrow down who the WW is by who does not believe I am the cop?
Why don't you tell us who it is?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4747 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 am

Ghug's late change of mind implies he had no solid info.

Statistically we should vote rdr or Chaqa.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4748 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:13 am

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 am
Ghug's late change of mind implies he had no solid info.

Statistically we should vote rdr or Chaqa.
Damo using math is his scumtell

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4749 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:46 am

Maniac is the lowest poster still alive.
Macca is second on that list.

I see Macca reading.

Hello, Macca.

Your thoughts please?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4750 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:12 am

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:13 am
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:53 am
Ghug's late change of mind implies he had no solid info.

Statistically we should vote rdr or Chaqa.
Damo using math is his scumtell
Nai

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4751 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:44 am

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4752 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:55 am

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:44 am
Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.
Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4753 Post by TheMadMonarch » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:06 am

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:46 am
Maniac is the lowest poster still alive.
Macca is second on that list.

I see Macca reading.

Hello, Macca.

Your thoughts please?
Incoming!

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4754 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:08 am

Damn the scum are good hunters

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4755 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:10 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:31 am
Kakarroto wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:32 pm
I would also like to rd to write his thoughts openly, if you are mafia like ghug is suggesting, you shouldn't deny, and if you are town, you would want to do that anyway
I don't understand what you meant with this. I have been writing my thoughts as openly as I can, so if you have something you don't get just ask.

Currently I am scumreading Yav and Maniac and I keep flip floping on HB, Jamiet and Damo. This are the one's I want to get in the block today.
I also fail to have a solid read on Celaph, Macca and Bona.

I townread Dargo, you, Kgray, Food and Chaqa.
I can't help starting to think something I shouldn't.

How scum was able to hit PR after PR each night. Either scum are brilliant at PR reading or really lucky. But looking all PR and the one scum that flipped plus the Cop claimant they are all experienced players.

What if the roles weren't assigned at random and scum can notice it? I know I shouldn't be suspecting the GM, but I can't stop thinking on this.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4756 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:14 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:55 am
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:44 am
Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.
Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.
Neither you nor Chaqa have obvtowned (sorry ghug) and no other player has obvscummed so I see you and Chaqa as the 2 best targets today.

Darg is obviously off the table as should Jamie and me be.
Bona and kgray shouldn't be contemplated because of the crucial timing of their D1 votes.
Food screams town.
Celaph, Macca, Ham and Maniac are possibles but without additional evidence I see no reason to vote any of them ahead of you or Chaqa.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4757 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:15 am

Maniac wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:25 am
Yav: Moves from Macca to Maniac making it Maniac 8, Flum 5. I see this as town Yav.
@Maniac, you townread me because I voted you over Flum, and if you're claiming that you are town, I voted for another town and this doesn't make any sense. This is indeed towny and I'm happy I didn't vote for Flum, but I think so because I scumread you. If you were both town, I could fairly be a scum sitting on a random town wagon.
Are you giving up?
Please reply to this.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4758 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:15 am

Sorry forgot Kak. In the celaph etc pile.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4759 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:18 am

yavuzovic wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:08 am
Damn the scum are good hunters
ghug as last nk's kill was a no brainer, the fact he was PR was lucky.
Vecna was always going to be a strong N1 candidate, again they got lucky. And brain wasn't to difficult.

So, no, not especially.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4760 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:18 am

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:15 am
Sorry forgot Kak. In the celaph etc pile.
And yav

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