MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Bonatogether]

Since I'm being so harsh about the dumb slip thing, I think it's worth noting that I like this analysis and I'm proud of you, son.

Other than the broad conclusion, I agree uncle ghug.

Is this a whole family tree now?

[ghug]

largest part

there

Where did the rest of each wagon go?

This is there?

What?

[Bonatogether]

This take remains moronic, Bona. If you're going to doubt darg's claim, find a better reason.

Why is it moronic? Is it cause you won't be townclear anymore?

No, I'm all for that.

It's because 999,999 times out of a million, that's someone mindlessly saying the wrong thing, not slipping.

Even if darg is lying, he's been "the cop" for 75% of the time he's been the cop if he's the actual cop. It's equally engrained.

But he doesn't claim what you said here - he claims that it's a typo.

[ghug]

Why is it moronic? Is it cause you won't be townclear anymore?

No, I'm all for that.

It's because 999,999 times out of a million, that's someone mindlessly saying the wrong thing, not slipping.

Even if darg is lying, he's been "the cop" for 75% of the time he's been the cop if he's the actual cop. It's equally engrained.

But he doesn't claim what you said here - he claims that it's a typo.

Semantics, morphology, doesn't really matter.

An inconsequential replacement of something with something else.

[TheMadMonarch]

I feel like I'm losing my grasp of how I feel about the gamestate so let me try putting some notes against each player to at least help direct my sense of voting at the end of the day and create a POE to make the best effort there.

TL;DR So right now I'd like to see celaph, macca, Maniac, or Jaime go down. Fluminator is, I suppose, an acceptable alternative, but even though I did say Flum could be scum, I actually don't love that wagon compared to these four other candidates.

1. yavuzovic - yavu's fighting with rdr in particular, as well as making various mistakes and owning up to them easily, feels naturally townish. I definitely townread yavu.

2. bonatogether - I swing back and forth on how I read bona. bona has done some things that have made me very suspicious. But bona has also done things that I strongly townread. I guess I have to call bona null. When I was looking at the worcej vs. bona wagons, I was feeling paralyzed; I hated BOTH wagons and was frustrated that somehow we'd been pulled away from good wagons like Maniac and celaph. I think at the time I thought that if I REALLY had to make the decision, I would have to vote for bona over worcej. I didn't end up moving at all because this EOD is tough for me and I was barely on, and others made the decision... but at the time, and still, I felt like it was two bad choices.

3. ghug - ghug has made some very townie comments and I'm willing to accept the code-green from cop!darg's read. I thought ghug had done some shady stuff with the worcej wagon but in retrospect it looks clean, also. I have a slightly inkling that perhaps ghug could be the godfather, but it's not something we can deal with in the current gamestate and I would not presently vote for ghug.

4. macca573 - as stated elsewhere I think Macca has been more than just unavailable, but willfully negligent and unapologetically so. I also think the analysis of cop!dargo was scum-minded. Macca is a pretty good scum candidate for me. Not exactly my highest, because of limited information, but still a pretty good candidate.

5. rdrivera2005 - I am really on the fence with rdr. I feel like I always have trouble reading him. I did just go back and reread a bit because I was feeling like in the yavu vs. rdr that rdr was coming out scummy, but I don't really feel that any longer. I think for now I have to put rdr as null.

6. Celaph - celaph is my top scumread. I have no meta on celaph but celaph's posts so far are entirely active-inactive. celaph asks questions and pokes and prods but offers very little positioning of his own thoughts and reads. Every post by celaph feels incredibly constructed to me. It looks good on the surface, but if you actually read the posts, there is nothing there. celaph never reacts, never interjects, never exclaims. celaph is completely emotionless and has, it seems, no opinions. celaph has not helped town at all. I think celaph is absolutely scum.

7. Vecna - dead, Inventor

8. damo666 - I didn't feel great about damo for a while, but damo's posts today in particular look much better. I think damo has offered some reasoning and logical deductions that appear to come from a town mindsight. As of today, I would townlean damo.

9. Hamilton Brian - I was scumleaning HB for a while, and I still hesitate on this slot, but HB has at least moved to null for me. It's difficult to pin down but there are some things HB says that I struggle to see as being from the mouth of scum.

10. Fluminator - I am comfortable with the Fluminator wagon. Flum has made some posts that look scummy. I don't have a great read here - if given the choice, I would DK celaph or Jamiet or Maniac over Flum - but I think there is enough suspicious activity on Fluminator's part that there is a good chance they are scum.

11. worcej - dead, VT

12. kgray - I waver on kgray, but I think in the same way I sometimes waver on other very vocal town. I think kgray is town.

13. Chaqa - I keep wavering on Chaqa, too, but I think Chaqa says some stuff that I just struggle to imagine coming from scum!Chaqa. Chaqa is aggressive in a variety of places that seem townie to me. kgray is townier, but I'm pretty confident Chaqa is town and can place them in my town reads for now.

14. Maniac - Maniac improved, but has fallen off again it seems. I think that Maniac may have come in to work hard expressly to not get DK'd, rather than to help town solve. I think that there's still a very good chance that Maniac is the Werewolf, but maybe just scum.

15. brainbomb - dead, Watcher

16. Dargorygel - cop claim. I believe it, have addressed extensively elsewhere.

17. Kakarroto - I thought Kak was town for a while but I have serious doubts now. I need to reread Kakarroto. I think the gun fakery was not pro-town - it wasted a lot of time and effort and took the wind out of the sails when Kak revealed this was a fake ploy. I think Kak may be scum hiding under some floofy good-naturedness. I'm not super convinced Kak has questioned the game state strongly at any time. Again, I need to look at this again, but Kak is now in my nulls and needs to be re-read.

18. foodcoats - town.

19. DemonRHK - dead, scum, Stalker

20. Jamiet99uk - I was willing to give Jamie the benefit of the doubt early on, but I no longer do. Jaime often becomes a town leader when town. Jamie when town attacks on many fronts and is frenetic and wild. What has changed here? I was willing to make the allowance specifically because worcej said something about people have things going on in their real lives that affect their activity levels, and has mentioned before he and Jamie are friends on Facebook or whatever. So I thought, hmm, okay, maybe it's legit. But at this point, I feel like Jamie swoops in only when necessary to save face. Jamie isn't really helping advance the game for town. It's similar to how Maniac has acted. I strongly believe Jamie is scum at this point. (Also, the Maniac vs. Jamie would make a lot of sense if both are scum.)

The opposite of what I complained about you doing earlier. Certainly an improvement.

[TheMadMonarch]

More close fighting continued through the day, with the release of the Clazmonian Sow by the forces of Kronos unleashing panic and terror into the demigod lines. Whilst the great pig was eventually defeated and slain, the Lord of Time had once more closed in further on Mount Olympus, as he now set up a new headquarters in the United Nations. And another protector fell to his forces.

Day Three Final Count:

Fluminator (10): kgray, dargorygel, rdrivera2005, Macca573, Fluminator, Chaqa, foodcoats, Maniac. damo666, ghug
Maniac (5):celaph, Jamiet99uk, Hamilton Brian, yavuzovic, Bonatogether
Macca573 (1): Kakarroto

FLUMINATOR has died. He was Leneus, the MILLER.

Night Three has now begun. You have 24 hours.

Town death, not good. But it's a miller, it could be worse.

Likin' the flavors HR, keep it coming.

[TheMadMonarch]

What are people thinking about Jamie this morning? I have some thoughts, but I don't want to shade people's answers. I will respond to any comments in a few hours.

Angry. Like yeah, sure, I'm a bit useless. But it seems a bit much. He got me to swear, which is something I do like twice a month.

What self-respecting Australian only swears twice a month?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm just built different I guess....

[TheMadMonarch]

DAY 3 VCA

This day had very few wagons - people were remarkably consolidated from early on.

PHASE 1: CELAPH AND MACCA DO....THINGS
First major wagon formed at T-46:25 (!!!) on celaph. It didn't lose major wagon status until T-0:20, and didn't finally die until T-0:05. Of the people who voted celaph:
flum, food, kgray, HB went to flum (but HB had a late flip to Maniac)
ghug went to Maniac (and flum at the very end to avoid a tie but that's irrelevant for VCA purposes)


Second major wagon was Macca to pressure them for inactivity. It interestingly gained votes for a while flum was picking up steam, but it eventually crashed.
Food, Chaqa, damo took circuitous routes to flum but should be treated separately
Jamie, kak, yav all went to Maniac

So what do we see? For each of the two wagons a majority (or one less than) goes to the same wagon. This is really weird but to be expected given the extreme amount of wagon consolidation happening from early on in the day.

PHASE 2: IN WHICH THE SAME PEOPLE SQUARE OFF BUT ON DIFFERENT WAGONS

Third major wagon was Flum. It had been slowly gaining traction over the course of the day, and only lost two votes (HB and damo). This leads me to believe that a fair amount of the people on it were scum. Probably 3 before Hamilton left (So three in the group damo, darg, HB, kgray, macca, rdr). None of these voters tried tried to avoid a tie.

"but bona, no one left the other wagon too except to avoid a tie!!!!!!"
well yes but the people on the other wagon were looking for a flip and so were willing to abandon their preferred wagon to get it. Townpoints for damo, kak, and ghug here.

Fourth wagon was Maniac.
Maniac wagon started late, with celaph kick starting it at T-2:07. As outlined above, a majority of Macca voters came here. The people who voted Maniac without previously voting Macca are: bona, ghug, and HB. Only kak on this wagon tried to avoid a tie. This wagon collapses once it's evident that a tie was imminent. Therefore I believe this was a predominantly town driven wagon.

CELAPH/FLUM VOTERS
flum, food, kgray, HB

MACCA/MANIAC VOTERS
Jamie, kak, yavu

POSTSCRIPT: THE WAGON THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN
The two darg votes (macca and damo) came from Flum wagon. Both of them immediately went back. Why? If there's a scumslip this egregious, why not push it? Why immediately go back? Rereading, damo goes back without a stated reason. Macca goes back also, for no stated reason. Many many many scumpoints for this. I'd hazard a guess that one of them is scum who thought it was about to be a runaway wagon, but it just wasn't.

Also scumpoints for food for trying to dissuade them from voting darg.


tl;dr:
three scum in the group damo, darg, HB, kgray, macca, rdr
watch the groups flum/food/kgray/HB and Jamie/kak/yavu

I thought I'd explained this, but I'll try again.

I wanted to vote for darg but didn't know if it would go anywhere. When I was the last one left, I deemed it was over, and moved my vote to something that might happen.


I like the rest of this post though, keep it up Bona.

[TheMadMonarch]

A was on the dk and was right
B was on the dk and was wrong
C wasn't on the dk and was right(?)
D wasn't on the dk and was wrong
(disclaimer: right and wrong for only known/flipped roles; well I think you know how I mean it, you are smart)

X______________________A B C D

1. yavuzovic_____________0 0 2 1
2. bonatogether_________1 0 2 0
3. ghug_________________0 2 0 1
4. macca573____________0 1 1 1
5. rdrivera2005__________0 1 1 1
6. Celaph_______________1 0 2 0
7. Vecna_______________1
8. damo666_____________0 2 0 1
9. Hamilton Brian________0 1 1 1
10. belCavendishNY/Flum_ 0 1 1 1*
11. worcej______________0 1
12. kgray_______________1 2 0 0
13. Chaqa______________1 2 0 0
14. Maniac______________1 2 0 0
15. brainbomb___________0 1 1
16. Dargorygel___________0 1 1 1
17. Kakarroto____________0 0 2 1
18. foodcoats____________1 1 1 0
19. DemonRHK_________________0
20. Jamiet99uk___________0 0 2 1

so, what does this tell us? hmm

yavu, myself and jamiet never was on the daykill
kgray, chaqa and maniac (surprising they are all next to each other in the list) are bloodthirsty
ghug and damo were never 'right'
bona and celaph were always 'right'

Vecna had a game where he voted always for mafia

sorry for the formating, it looked much nicer in the editor, but I think it gets the idea across.

Looks cool, I don't understand it though. What do the numbers mean? I had a guess, but I can't work out why some people don't have four?

[TheMadMonarch]

Two town self votes in a row.

Time to ban self votes imo.

I unironically support this as a rule for the future.

[damo666]

@Bona

How can something be 'really wierd' yet 'to be expected ' ?

[damo666]

A was on the dk and was right
B was on the dk and was wrong
C wasn't on the dk and was right(?)
D wasn't on the dk and was wrong
(disclaimer: right and wrong for only known/flipped roles; well I think you know how I mean it, you are smart)

X______________________A B C D

1. yavuzovic_____________0 0 2 1
2. bonatogether_________1 0 2 0
3. ghug_________________0 2 0 1
4. macca573____________0 1 1 1
5. rdrivera2005__________0 1 1 1
6. Celaph_______________1 0 2 0
7. Vecna_______________1
8. damo666_____________0 2 0 1
9. Hamilton Brian________0 1 1 1
10. belCavendishNY/Flum_ 0 1 1 1*
11. worcej______________0 1
12. kgray_______________1 2 0 0
13. Chaqa______________1 2 0 0
14. Maniac______________1 2 0 0
15. brainbomb___________0 1 1
16. Dargorygel___________0 1 1 1
17. Kakarroto____________0 0 2 1
18. foodcoats____________1 1 1 0
19. DemonRHK_________________0
20. Jamiet99uk___________0 0 2 1

so, what does this tell us? hmm

yavu, myself and jamiet never was on the daykill
kgray, chaqa and maniac (surprising they are all next to each other in the list) are bloodthirsty
ghug and damo were never 'right'
bona and celaph were always 'right'

Vecna had a game where he voted always for mafia

sorry for the formating, it looked much nicer in the editor, but I think it gets the idea across.

Looks cool, I don't understand it though. What do the numbers mean? I had a guess, but I can't work out why some people don't have four?

Because we've only had 3 days. One entry in a column per day.

[TheMadMonarch]

A was on the dk and was right
B was on the dk and was wrong
C wasn't on the dk and was right(?)
D wasn't on the dk and was wrong
(disclaimer: right and wrong for only known/flipped roles; well I think you know how I mean it, you are smart)

X______________________A B C D

1. yavuzovic_____________0 0 2 1
2. bonatogether_________1 0 2 0
3. ghug_________________0 2 0 1
4. macca573____________0 1 1 1
5. rdrivera2005__________0 1 1 1
6. Celaph_______________1 0 2 0
7. Vecna_______________1
8. damo666_____________0 2 0 1
9. Hamilton Brian________0 1 1 1
10. belCavendishNY/Flum_ 0 1 1 1*
11. worcej______________0 1
12. kgray_______________1 2 0 0
13. Chaqa______________1 2 0 0
14. Maniac______________1 2 0 0
15. brainbomb___________0 1 1
16. Dargorygel___________0 1 1 1
17. Kakarroto____________0 0 2 1
18. foodcoats____________1 1 1 0
19. DemonRHK_________________0
20. Jamiet99uk___________0 0 2 1

so, what does this tell us? hmm

yavu, myself and jamiet never was on the daykill
kgray, chaqa and maniac (surprising they are all next to each other in the list) are bloodthirsty
ghug and damo were never 'right'
bona and celaph were always 'right'

Vecna had a game where he voted always for mafia

sorry for the formating, it looked much nicer in the editor, but I think it gets the idea across.

Looks cool, I don't understand it though. What do the numbers mean? I had a guess, but I can't work out why some people don't have four?

Because we've only had 3 days. One entry in a column per day.

How? Why the zeros?

Can explain it to me piece by piece?

[damo666]

Day 1s vote goes into 1 of the columns, similarly for day's 2 and 3.

[damo666]

Demon voters in A others D.

Worcej and Flum voters in B others C.

[damo666]

For instance it shows Bona and Celaph as the only 2 to vote Demon and avoid voting both worcej and Flum.

[yavuzovic]

I might not be on for the EoN

[TheMadMonarch]

Day 1s vote goes into 1 of the columns, similarly for day's 2 and 3.

???

Why are there some zeros and some blanks?

[TheMadMonarch]

I might not be on for the EoN

Welcome to the club!

[BobMcBob]

What are people thinking about Jamie this morning? I have some thoughts, but I don't want to shade people's answers. I will respond to any comments in a few hours.

Angry. Like yeah, sure, I'm a bit useless. But it seems a bit much. He got me to swear, which is something I do like twice a month.

What self-respecting Australian only swears twice a month?

##GM note: That would be me, except even less frequently than that. Last time I swore was in a mafia game and it looked something like #@$%