MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[TheMadMonarch]

So Macca

Who are your townreads, scumreads and nullls please?

Fluminator
Bonatogether
celaph
Chaqa
damo666
dargorygel
foodcoats
ghug
Hamilton Brian
Jamiet99uk (not really, I'm just kinda mad at him rn)
Kakarroto
kgray
Macca573
Maniac
rdrivera2005
yavuzovic

These all aren't super strong, but, made to choose, this is what I'd do.

[TheMadMonarch]

votecheck! rd and yavu snuggle together, what a lovely relationship. bona is on kgray, who is on flum, who is on chaqa. dargo supports kgray. and then two four on ones (both not voting) where I, jamiet, chaqa and damo want Macca to do something and maniac, hamilton, food and ghug wants celaph gone.

jamie just wants to end all of this.

votecheck result! town is headless and mafia is riding the waves.

At this point I agree Macca should probably go today. We can't afford him later in the game. But it will be a dead day if we just pile on him.

##vote Flum

Perhaps pronoun confusion, who are you referring to here?

[TheMadMonarch]

So Macca

Who are your townreads, scumreads and nullls please?

Fluminator
Bonatogether
celaph
Chaqa
damo666
dargorygel
foodcoats
ghug
Hamilton Brian
Jamiet99uk (not really, I'm just kinda mad at him rn)
Kakarroto
kgray
Macca573
Maniac
rdrivera2005
yavuzovic

These all aren't super strong, but, made to choose, this is what I'd do.

Formatting is hard, correction here.

[damo666]

[...]

Pardon?

Do you have a specific question or do you dislike what I wrote in general? Or did I make a mistake?

Sorry I just got lost, especially the last 2 paragraphs. Don't worry I think I can work it out with a couple of rereads.

[Kakarroto]

well I had a pretty awful nightmare tonight, somethings not right, not sure if it's the game, less sleep or I'm getting ill, but I really don't like the state the game is in right now. Kinda like mafia is content. Maybe I'm wrong and they just don't want to stick out right now while they lose a member, who knows for sure.

I would like to know what kgray's thoughts are, also I want dargo to be more involved.

Especially I want to hear more from Macca, like damo posted, but a full read if possible. Any thoughts, even if they are insults against me and my reads, are also highly appretiated. If you are town, you want to do this. If you are mafia, well, I don't care.

And I want yavu answering why he thinks rd's vote looked so especially bad while saying nothing about hamilton then (the 4-3-3-3 thing as I said before).

Now I have to run to work.

[damo666]

So Macca

Who are your townreads, scumreads and nullls please?

Fluminator
Bonatogether
celaph
Chaqa
damo666
dargorygel
foodcoats
ghug
Hamilton Brian
Jamiet99uk (not really, I'm just kinda mad at him rn)
Kakarroto
kgray
Macca573
Maniac
rdrivera2005
yavuzovic

These all aren't super strong, but, made to choose, this is what I'd do.

Formatting is hard, correction here.

I assume red is scum, blue town and yellow null. These seem reasonable to me. I appreciate none of them are super strong but can you provide some reasoning? One liners are sufficient.

[damo666]

well I had a pretty awful nightmare tonight, somethings not right, not sure if it's the game, less sleep or I'm getting ill, but I really don't like the state the game is in right now. Kinda like mafia is content. Maybe I'm wrong and they just don't want to stick out right now while they lose a member, who knows for sure.

I would like to know what kgray's thoughts are, also I want dargo to be more involved.

Especially I want to hear more from Macca, like damo posted, but a full read if possible. Any thoughts, even if they are insults against me and my reads, are also highly appretiated. If you are town, you want to do this. If you are mafia, well, I don't care.

And I want yavu answering why he thinks rd's vote looked so especially bad while saying nothing about hamilton then (the 4-3-3-3 thing as I said before).

Now I have to run to work.

I sympathise with this. There seems a bit of a malaise and sloppy thinking. Hopefully things will pick up as we approach EOD.

[rdrivera2005]

votecheck! rd and yavu snuggle together, what a lovely relationship. bona is on kgray, who is on flum, who is on chaqa. dargo supports kgray. and then two four on ones (both not voting) where I, jamiet, chaqa and damo want Macca to do something and maniac, hamilton, food and ghug wants celaph gone.

jamie just wants to end all of this.

votecheck result! town is headless and mafia is riding the waves.

At this point I agree Macca should probably go today. We can't afford they later in the game. But it will be a dead day if we just pile on they.

##vote Flum

Perhaps pronoun confusion, who are you referring to here?

Sorry, about the pronoum (again), I edited. Give some excuse for an old guy who doesn´t have English as primary language. I will be extra cautious.

[yavuzovic]

So Macca came back after a wagon was formed.

[TheMadMonarch]

At this point I agree Macca should probably go today. We can't afford them later in the game. But it will be a dead day if we just pile on them.

##vote Flum

Perhaps pronoun confusion, who are you referring to here?

Sorry, about the pronoum (again), I edited. Give some excuse for an old guy who doesn´t have English as primary language. I will be extra cautious.

I mean, your grammar is still off (I fixed it), but I appreciate it.

[TheMadMonarch]

Fluminator He should be better than this
Bonatogether agrees with (or at least did when it was more relevent) about darg
celaph I'm not seeing what others are, he seems fine too me
Chaqa I mean, the vibes I guess
damo666 Same as above
dargorygel The claim sitch'
foodcoats I just generally don't like what he's doing? (possibly the push on me, won't rule that out)
ghug I feel even fake!dargo would pick a real townie to "scan" for more cred
Hamilton Brian Don't really remember anything he's done
Jamiet99uk (not really, I'm just kinda mad at him rn)
Kakarroto The gun move was weird. I generally don't like fake claiming at all.
kgray idk, I kinda always Town kgray, so take it with a grain of salt
Macca573 this one is obvious
Maniac :shug:
rdrivera2005 :shug: again
yavuzovic vibes?

These all aren't super strong, but, made to choose, this is what I'd do.

Formatting is hard, correction here.

I assume red is scum, blue town and yellow null. These seem reasonable to me. I appreciate none of them are super strong but can you provide some reasoning? One liners are sufficient.

attached

[foodcoats]

So Macca

Who are your townreads, scumreads and nullls please?

Fluminator
Bonatogether
celaph
Chaqa
damo666
dargorygel
foodcoats
ghug
Hamilton Brian
Jamiet99uk (not really, I'm just kinda mad at him rn)
Kakarroto
kgray
Macca573
Maniac
rdrivera2005
yavuzovic

These all aren't super strong, but, made to choose, this is what I'd do.

You made a case on darg and you hedge vs Jamie.

Why do you scum read yavu and I?

[foodcoats]

Derp just saw the post above.

[foodcoats]

I choose to remain on the Macca wagon for vibes.

[yavuzovic]

I don't approve Macca kill, they won't be much informative and we have better candidates. Also they doesn't show up after a wagon is formed against them so they are more likely to be town I guess. I don't want to townread Macca because I have no reason, but should we really kill a lurker?

I agree with your first line, though I would rather just get a sub if they don't participate. That said, they've said they've caught up so I'm hoping that they contribute later today. That said, what do you mean they didn't show up after a wagon formed against them? The way that you are soft defending them without paying attention feels icky.

I retract this arguement because Macca showed up! I was saying that mafia would be more likely to come back to defend themselves than town.
Town doesn't have a reason to lurk without something about real life. Even if they lurk, it's unlikely that they will stop lurking when they are in danger.
But the mafia, in contrast, would start defending themselves if they are being voted.
I can see the scenario where Macca is town because they were clear about their absence. However it's kind of suspicious that they immediately came back after a wagon is formed. I made that post in thr quote because I didn't see Macca last night.

And sorry about the pronoun confusion, I'm not used to it.

[yavuzovic]

You scumreading me because my vote D1 is bizarre. You also scumread Worcej?
I feel good with my vote, will probably only change if Damo become a viable wagon.

I don't scumread you because your vote D1 is bizarre, in fact, we were on the same wagon. I scumread you because you voted for HB when RHK/HB were 4/2 nd with your vote this became 4/3. Ypu created wn alternative for RHK, who is confirmed scum.
If my reason was only who you voted for, I would scumread myself as well :/

What do you think of hamilton then? also mafia? D1 he did the same thing as rd so it was 4-3-3-3 (demon - myself - hamilton - brain), in fact, by your logic, rd voted mafia (since only mafia gives more alternatives, right?)

I scumread rdrivera and HB separately. If HB is scum, turning him into an alternative against Demon doesn't make any sense so rivera would be much safer, I would even put him on my townreads list.

[damo666]

Some (rubbish?) calcs

Assumptions:

As uncc'd cop darg is truthful and he was scum RBd N2.

Then excluding darg there are
4 scum
1 ww
10 town

darg has inno scan on ghug so ghug is town, ww or gf but there is only 50% chance gf in play so

prob ghug town = 10/11.5 = .87 to 2 dp = k
prob ghug ww = 1/11.5 = .09 to 2 dp = g

prob any other town = (9 + (1-k))/(14 + (1-k)) = .65 to 2 dp

Now consider N1 rb claimants:

If Scum RBd must be non ghug WW or town so prob town =
(9 + (1-k))/(10 -g + (1-k)) = .91 to 2 dp = St

If Town RBd could be anything other than town RBer =
(8 + (1-k))/(13 + (1-k)) = .62 to 2dp = Tt

So prob N1 rb claimant is town is 0.5 * (St + Tt) = .76 to 2 dp

The probability of an N1 rb claimant being town is 18% greater than the others so in the lack of any other evidence it is sub optimal to vote a N1 rb claimant.

rdr must have been town RBd so he is slightly less likely to be town than others (96%).

Conclusion:

darg, ghug, Jamie and I should be off the table for today.

Excluding D1 Demon voters (yes, I know bussing is a thing) we are left with

Flum, Ham, Kak, Macca, rdr, Yav.

These 6 constitute my vote pool for today.

If anybody has any strong reasons for narrowing the pool further please shout.

[yavuzovic]

our next 6 eliminations are already set in stone

And they are?

( I realize BB is dead now, anyone else know what they were?)

Didn't you inform Macca about the bot?

[damo666]

##vote Flum

[yavuzovic]

Rivera and Macca are the scum team