Mafia 1016: America's Past-Crime [HIDDEN]

[Vecna]

I actually think the final scum is either you or Rdrivera, darg. Hopefully either of you is vig so we can kill the other.

lol
And after i post my light suspicion... you move me to your potential scum list.

Its not like I have anything I can point at in your play that I find scummy. Overall you do all the right things to make me feel that youre probably town.

But at the same time, there has not been any post that I could point at that only town-you couldve made. No strong indications that make me certain. No indications of strong mindmeld that we had in that game (well maybe over the Bozo thing, but that one wasnt particularly indepth).

So.....yeah

Am I wrong about Jamiet? Am I wrong about Celaph? Is it simply Rdrivera?

[Vecna]

I actually think the final scum is either you or Rdrivera, darg. Hopefully either of you is vig so we can kill the other.

Are you that sure about durga?

yes, im convinced shes gonna flip scum

[Jamiet99uk]

Celaph distances himself from the Brain list. He diverts it to Jamie-talk (meaning he wanted us to look only at how the brain-folk interact with Jamie.) He finally puts his ordering of the list pretty late in the day. And then he votes outside the list.

These seem like reasons to suspect Celaph, yet you listed him as your top town in Group 1.

Explain?

[rdrivera2005]

I actually think the final scum is either you or Rdrivera, darg. Hopefully either of you is vig so we can kill the other.

Are you that sure about durga?

yes, im convinced shes gonna flip scum

Do you remember Bozo bussing that hard when he is Mafia?

And why are you so sure about Kgray?

[dargorygel]

Celaph distances himself from the Brain list. He diverts it to Jamie-talk (meaning he wanted us to look only at how the brain-folk interact with Jamie.) He finally puts his ordering of the list pretty late in the day. And then he votes outside the list.

These seem like reasons to suspect Celaph, yet you listed him as your top town in Group 1.

Explain?

Because I was going through each of the four and thinking about reasons to suspect. They ARE reasons to suspect. I have reasons to suspect vecna and kgray, too.

[dargorygel]

and durga, obv

[Vecna]

Are you that sure about durga?

yes, im convinced shes gonna flip scum

Do you remember Bozo bussing that hard when he is Mafia?

And why are you so sure about Kgray?

He only started voting on Durga after the wagon seemed unstoppable on D1, no? Its not like he has been pushing there before that happened. If she was town, id expect him to have a bunch of weak reasons for voting her.

If he hadnt gotten vigged and she wouldve died yesterday like she should have, it probably wouldve worked too, and have him sail into the endgame.

As for Kgray, the only reason people are suspicious of her is the voting record. Bloody dumb reasoning. All her play is exactly in-line with how she plays as town. She doesnt listen to anybody, draws her own conclusions on everything, and gets genuinely frustrated with all the right things and fights people over them. Even her suspicion of me has a natural progression over time that I dont think anyone can fake.

[dargorygel]

do y'all really think if i'm scum mafia is gonna just chill and let me die here? can someone MOVE

Thinking about this comment by durga as EoD approached. If durga is scum, I expect the other scums would NOT just let her hang, if they could avoid it. But it looks like bozo was absent. And the 'other' scum could have done all they could do by voting elsewhere.

OR they could have decided in this short mini game that the time to bus had come.

Which all is WIFOMy. Other than to confirm in my mind that durga's scum-mates might indeed have left her to be kicked off the team.

##VOTE Durga

[Vecna]

There was only 1 busvote on her at the end of D2.

Pretty convinced Ifischl is town as well

[Jamiet99uk]

The gentleman at the centre of this local news story would be excellent at playing this game:

https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/fr ... -pOUQBeugg

[Vecna]

The gentleman at the centre of this local news story would be excellent at playing this game:

https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/fr ... -pOUQBeugg

You are now subscribed to the Norwich evening news mailinglist

[Jamiet99uk]

The gentleman at the centre of this local news story would be excellent at playing this game:

https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/fr ... -pOUQBeugg

You are now subscribed to the Norwich evening news mailinglist

Well if you decided to type in your email to their pop-up instead of closing it, you would, sure. Norfolk is an interesting place. I'm sure you'll learn a lot.

[Vecna]

[email protected]

[Jamiet99uk]

just checked, there does not appear to be any votes or msg's from bozo in the last few hours on either day

Hm, then it's entirely possible Bozo stayed parked on Durga simply because he wasn't around.

However, would scum Bozo really park his vote on his scum team-mate Durga on D2, when she was only just saved from the Daykill on D1, if he knew he wouldn't be around? Wouldn't that be a hugely risky place to leave his vote parked?

I would appreciate thoughts on this question.

[Jamiet99uk]

Does Scum Bozo bus like that? That's the key question really.

[Jamiet99uk]

Now here is Bozo's D2:

Page 35:
Apologises for not being on at EoD. Doesn't otherwise react to the Damo flip.

Engages with Ifischl and Bona and asks them both to clarify their townreads in Group 1.

Answers a post from Dargorygel by doing the maths on the two groups and coming up with the probabilities. He concludes that voting in Group 1 is the best chance. (This is correct from a probability perspective, he doesn't attempt to steer anyone out of Group 1, but this doesn't really prove much since he's in Group 2 himself).

Page 38:
Engages with me about the split of Jamie votes / Durga voters D1.
Concludes "an attempt to save Durga".
Votes Durga on this basis.

Answers questions from Vecna about this vote distribution (accurately, since the facts were clear).

Page 39:
Responds to my case on Kgray. Says "Kgray's D1 voting looks suspicious" but then proceeds to poke holes in my case, both regarding the justification for Kgray's Damo vote, and whether or not she questioned Damo.

Jokes about curling again.

Defends Kgray's Damo wagon more clearly, answering several of my questions / allegations directed at Kgray.

Repeats his assertion that Durga was saved.

Page 40:
Continued to engage with me in defence of Kgray, over two further posts.

Page 41:
Replies to Dargorygel, who is questioning Bozo's defence of Kgray.

Page 42:
Moderates his defence of Kgray in returning to the point of Durga being saved - in response to Kgray herself responding to Bozo's remarks in her defence.

Page 52:
In reply to my request, ranks the scum likelihood in Group 1 as Durga > Bona > Vecna > Celaph > Kgray

Page 53:
Asks Kgray a question about her scum meta.
Puts some shade on Bona (while keeping his vote on Durga).

At this point Bozo leaves. His vote stayed on Durga.

CONCLUSIONS:
For the second day, Bozo plonked his vote onto Durga (on the basis she was saved), and left it there, and was not online at EoD.

For the second day, despite voting Durga, he did not push her wagon hard or attempt to question her much.

Bozo spent most of D2 speaking up in defence of Kgray who he declared to be his #1 townread in Group 1.

[Jamiet99uk]

So:

Possibility 1: Scum Bozo was willing to bus Scum Durga on two days running and abandon her to her fate at EoD on both occasions, while buddying Town Kgray.

Possibility 2: Durga is town and Bozo latched onto easy reasons to plonk his vote on her and leave it there for a nice miskill. Bozo worked hard to defend his scum team-mate, Kgray.

Possibility 3: Durga and Kgray are both scum. Bozo distanced from one whilst defending the other.

Possiblity 4 would be that Durga and Kgray are both town. However I cannot reconcile Bozo's behaviour with that scenario and I would suggest that it can be ruled out.

Thoughts?

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Kgray for now.

[Vecna]

The alternative for Bozo to park his vote D1 wouldve been on you Jamiet, since durga and you were the only existing wagons.

Maybe he had to bus because only bad options existed, and he had to leave his vote somewhere before taking off.

[Vecna]

On day2 the durga wagon was also up to 4 votes when he placed his. The only other vote placed at that time was a single vote on Bona.

I think youre putting way too much weight on Bozo never bussing, while there were not very many options for him whatsoever.