Mafia 1016: America's Past-Crime [HIDDEN]

[Maniac]

My third observation is that you seem to be protesting a lot about this, like you feel you have been caught in a trap and wriggling frantically to free yourself. I’m defo moving you from clear to null to suspect over this now.

[Jamiet99uk]

My third observation is that you seem to be protesting a lot about this, like you feel you have been caught in a trap and wriggling frantically to free yourself. I’m defo moving you from clear to null to suspect over this now.

How is it a "trap"? The Vote Tracker is alphabetical. This is a plain fact.

[Jamiet99uk]

Scumreading me for presenting a list in alphabetical order, when I took it from a page on the bot that presents this information in fucking alphabetical order, is illogical nonsense of the highest order.

[Jamiet99uk]

True, but we should vote out one of those 5 this turn.

Why'd you leave out Durga and Vecna though?

Did I?

Was Ifischl drunk when posting these things, or suffering from short term memory loss?

Genuine questions.

I would like Ifischl to explain this - why did you initially give a list of 3 Jamie voters, when there were 5?

Could this be a slip?

[Vecna]

Also well done BB The King for asking the question. I know you’ve taken slack for it but if the answer had of been ‘NO’ you would’ve given us five clears and a massive advantage. People criticising you are result oriented.

This...is fair. If the answer wouldve been no the game wouldve been instantly over.

[Jamiet99uk]

Did I?

Oh, celaph and Durga, my bad.

I read the vote tracker on the bot wrong.

Ok this was the answer. Never mind.

[Jamiet99uk]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

I agree with this, it's agreeable, and I'm in agreement.

[Jamiet99uk]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

I agree with this, it's agreeable, and I'm in agreement.

Wait.

No I'm not.

I've just had a thought.

Wait a moment.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ah, it's ok, it's fine, I do agree with Dargorygel. I just had to work through it. I'll set out my thought process.

There are 11 people left:

Bonatogether
bozotheclown
celaph
dargorygel
Durga
Jamiet99uk
kgray
lfischl
Maniac
Rdrivera2005
Vecna

Of these, 3 are Mafia and 8 are Town.

Based on Brainbomb's question we can split them into two sub-groups:

GROUP 1: People who did vote for me D1
This group contains 1-3 Mafia.

Bonatogether
Celaph
Durga
Kgray
Vecna

GROUP 2: People who did not vote for me D1
This group contains 0-2 Mafia.

Bozotheclown
Dargorygel
Jamiet99uk
lfischl
Maniac
Rdrivera2005

I know I am not scum, but of course most of you don't.
However, for me, I can remove myself from Group 2.
That leaves me with two groups, both the same size (five people).

Group 1 contains up to three Mafia.
Group 2 contains no more than two Mafia.

Therefore our chances of hitting Mafia in Group 1 is stronger, and we should probably do that.

[Jamiet99uk]

If you are not me, and cannot remove me from the second group, the logic is actually even stronger.

Group 1 gives you 1-3 Mafia from a pool of 5.
Group 2 gives you 0-2 Mafia from a pool of 6.

So today we vote in Group 1.

[Jamiet99uk]

We don't know if the proportion of scum inside the group of 5 is different from than the group, so not until late game (when, in theory, most of the group of 5 has flipped, and a lot of other people besides) is the group of 5 useful for scumhunting. Quick math (assuming equal proportions) suggests that 1 scum in the group is the most likely, but we won't know until we've flipped a lot of people.

Please explain the working of your "quick math" ?

[Jamiet99uk]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

There could be 1 scum in those 5 (20%) and 2 scum in the other 6 (33%).

However, if we take the known fact that 1 of those 5 is scum, and assume the probable location for the other 2 scum is randomly distributed among the other 10 slots, the probability of hitting scum in the group of 5 is (1 + 0.2*4)/5 (36%) and the probability of hitting scum in the remaining 6 is 0.2*6/6 (20%).

Good work Bozo, this does the maths that reinforces my thought process.

We should definitely vote in Group 1.

[Jamiet99uk]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

There could be 1 scum in those 5 (20%) and 2 scum in the other 6 (33%).

However, if we take the known fact that 1 of those 5 is scum, and assume the probable location for the other 2 scum is randomly distributed among the other 10 slots, the probability of hitting scum in the group of 5 is (1 + 0.2*4)/5 (36%) and the probability of hitting scum in the remaining 6 is 0.2*6/6 (20%).

If the mafia is smart they will never kill one of the Jaime voters because that narrows the pool. We have to vote one of the 5.

Spell.
My.
Fucking.
Name.
Right.
Or.
I.
Will.
Find.
You.

[celaph]

Ultimately I think bb's question says very little about the 5 of us that were voting Jamie. We're sitting at 8 town 3 scum giving us two miskills before kilo. I agree with lfischl's comment that scum is unlikely to kill any of us. That is especially true as they have to pick their kill before we finalize the dk and so they can't respond well to us DK'ing scum assuming the wagons are close.

I think the more useful implications are around Jamie. The fact that scum was on his wagon makes him more likely to be town. If someone on that wagon was bussing my gut would be kgray given how she left it for Damo.

Its interesting that Celaph is the only person (besides me) that has made any mention of Jamiet potentially being bussed

I wasn't just the only one really talking about bussing, I was the only one (before you) talking about the implications for Jamie in general. Makes me think that Jamie isn't scum with Durga, kgray, or Bona. So unless you're the scum in us 5, I think Jamie is town.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok I'm all caught up.

Of the possible vote pool today, here's how I'd rank them before I do a compete re-read of any of them:

MOST LIKELY SCUM
Durga - Was a counter-wagon to me for a crucial period yesterday, at the time when the largest number of people seemed to be online. Declared an early scumread on Damo for using maths, which is nonsense as Damo always does that regardless of alignment. Pushed the Damo wagon towards EoD. Voted me for a stupid NAI reason and didn't seem to give a shit about the game until she was a wagon.

And here's a thing: None of the people in the Group 1 pool ever voted for Durga at any point in D1. Isn't that interesting?

Kgray - Instrumental in getting Damo daykilled. Started the Damo wagon despite apparently having no good reason for scumreading Damo. Her posts regarding Damo at the time of voting him were totally different from her usual incisive questioning behaviour. Kgray grilled me relentlessly, examined my points in detail, and pressed me hard. Did she do this to Damo? No.

Kgray did not ask Damo any questions! Let me say that again: Kgray created and pushed a Damo wagon and did not ask Damo any questions. Isn't that interesting?

Bonatogether - Seems super anxious to protect himself from being voted. Constantly reacts at surface-level to any mention of his name. Suspicious.

Celaph - Celaph seems null to me and clearly most deserving of a re-read.

Vecna - So much of my read on Vecna here is meta, but this feels like Ballsy Town Vecna. The way he pushed me, he was totally wrong but Town Vecna is often wrong. I'm not giving him a free pass entirely, but he really does appear to be trying to find scum and help town, so I certainly don't want to vote him today.

LEAST LIKELY SCUM

[Jamiet99uk]

I am 99% certain there is at least one scum in Kgray and Durga.
Happy to see either of them daykilled today, both great choices.

The way Kgray shoved Damo over a cliff without questioning him is particularly damning, if you ask me, given Kgray's usual hyper-questioning nature.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am 99% certain there is at least one scum in Kgray and Durga.
Happy to see either of them daykilled today, both great choices.

The way Kgray shoved Damo over a cliff without questioning him is particularly damning, if you ask me, given Kgray's usual hyper-questioning nature.

A +1 from BunnyGo.

See? Even the GM agrees with me.

[Maniac]

My third observation is that you seem to be protesting a lot about this, like you feel you have been caught in a trap and wriggling frantically to free yourself. I’m defo moving you from clear to null to suspect over this now.

How is it a "trap"? The Vote Tracker is alphabetical. This is a plain fact.

I didn’t say it was a trap. I said you’re acting as if you’ve been caught in a trap. Big difference.

[Vecna]

You feel Bona reacted anxious to the Brainbomb reveal?

[Jamiet99uk]

My third observation is that you seem to be protesting a lot about this, like you feel you have been caught in a trap and wriggling frantically to free yourself. I’m defo moving you from clear to null to suspect over this now.

How is it a "trap"? The Vote Tracker is alphabetical. This is a plain fact.

I didn’t say it was a trap. I said you’re acting as if you’ve been caught in a trap. Big difference.

Well I think this is a pointless red herring, and we're both town.

What do you think of my points about Durga and Kgray? See my long post about the ranking of the five suspects in Group 1. I'd like your comments. Particularly with regard to Kgray's actions on the Damo wagon.