MAFIA 64 - The Z Files - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 4.2

Celaph (8) - Ezio, Damo666(END), Bonatogether, DemonRHK, Rdrivera, BunnyGo, Maniac, BobMcBob
Vecna (2) - Kgray, Ghug
DonnyDude (1) - Brainbomb
Maniac (1) - Jasnah

Endvotes: Damo666

Currently CELPAH is the one who is it.

I was too busy doing a completely manual VC to update the flavour. More story later.

36 hours are left.

[Vecna]

I have not noticed a Roleblock claim

The lack of such a claim would indicate one of the following:

either Macca is alien

or

Alien probe targeted one of the very few Mafia who are not claiming in order to get Macca daykilled.

I suspect the former

Can you explain the logic on the former?

Macca wasn't RBd . He was HRs teammate.

Yeah I was just thinking the same thing.....if they really did have a roleblocker, then why are none of our claimed PRs (that are dangerous to the aliens) getting roleblocked?

Does this mean that the remaining aliens have already claimed non-vanilla roles? Are they using the roleblock to scout out the scumteam to form a hidden alliance? If so, why did they not scout my sexy ass?

Still, we have no other real explenation for Ghugs RB do we? Seems unlikely that both Ghug and Macca are aliens and theyd put them out in the open like that

[BobMcBob]

Okay, here is my theory for the most likely set of night actions up to this point.

N1:
Mafia NK bozo
Aliens do not kill
Prober RB's ghug
Doctors save various targets
Damo (vanilla cop) scans celaph iirc

N2:
Mafia NK damo
Aliens do not kill
Prober RB's Macca
Doctor saves damo
Other doctor saves incorrectly
Parrot parrots damo
Damo scans maniac??? I seem to remember seeing that but can't be bothered searching with no bot. Maybe that was N3 I can't remember

N3:
Mafia NK someone
Doctor saves NK target (I don't recall seeing someone claim saved)
Other doctor saves damo
Rdrivera does something, it is not a kill, it is an action that returns two results to rdr I believe
Parrot parrots rdr
Damo scans someone (I believe this is unknown)
Aliens do not kill
Prober holds RB or uses it on someone who has for some reason decided not to claim/has forgotten/has not had the opportunity

I am not sure whether or not the second doctor exists, I seem to recall someone saying it was likely but I can't remember where. It is not a necessary part of this theory. SK likely does not exist but may be holstering. At this point I'm thinking something like a 75% chance SK is not in play. Damo is town. Macca is not alien under this theory. Rdr is likely town if my memory hasn't failed me. Last night's RB was likely a somewhat inactive player if there was one. It is entirely possible that last night's roleblock was performed on the mafia killer.

Alternate N3:
Mafia NK someone
Prober RB's the mafia carrying out the kill
Doc saves are irrelevant
Everything else remains the same

This would explain why there is no docsave or RB claim yet (from memory)

If I've missed or misremembered something or you disagree with an assumption or my logic, feel free to point it out, this is meant to be a theory of the most likely events.

[BunnyGo]

damo revealed he had a "Vanilla" on cel N1...when the Psycho was still in play, meaning the result was inverted and Cel is NOT vanilla.

If celaph was town PR, he would have no reason to not claim honestly (or a lesser PR) when he was on the block d1. But he didn't claim PR, so he is not PR. It's mechanically confirmed that he's not VT, so therefore he is not town and should be voted =D

##Call GM

Would a roleblock on the alien psychoguy (HR's role) disable its passive ability for that night?

Moot point. I can confirm his role was always active

[BunnyGo]

I’m amused celaph didn’t even bother putting in a holding save command. It’s like he didn’t read the role PM even after making a mistake D1

[damo666]

It's occurring to me that brain and bozo are very similar players.

I half agree with you. There are a *lot* of differences.

They both backfit evidence to support a pre held theory. Bozo's are more rational though.

[BobMcBob]

It's occurring to me that brain and bozo are very similar players.

I half agree with you. There are a *lot* of differences.

They both backfit evidence to support a pre held theory. Bozo's are more rational though.

I realise that was the similarity you found, especially in the context of brain's massive theory. However the way approach D1, posting, gut reads, claiming, rationality, logic and so on is very different.

[damo666]

Okay, here is my theory for the most likely set of night actions up to this point.

N1:
Mafia NK bozo
Aliens do not kill
Prober RB's ghug
Doctors save various targets
Damo (vanilla cop) scans celaph iirc

N2:
Mafia NK damo
Aliens do not kill
Prober RB's Macca
Doctor saves damo
Other doctor saves incorrectly
Parrot parrots damo
Damo scans maniac??? I seem to remember seeing that but can't be bothered searching with no bot. Maybe that was N3 I can't remember

N3:
Mafia NK someone
Doctor saves NK target (I don't recall seeing someone claim saved)
Other doctor saves damo
Rdrivera does something, it is not a kill, it is an action that returns two results to rdr I believe
Parrot parrots rdr
Damo scans someone (I believe this is unknown)
Aliens do not kill
Prober holds RB or uses it on someone who has for some reason decided not to claim/has forgotten/has not had the opportunity

I am not sure whether or not the second doctor exists, I seem to recall someone saying it was likely but I can't remember where. It is not a necessary part of this theory. SK likely does not exist but may be holstering. At this point I'm thinking something like a 75% chance SK is not in play. Damo is town. Macca is not alien under this theory. Rdr is likely town if my memory hasn't failed me. Last night's RB was likely a somewhat inactive player if there was one. It is entirely possible that last night's roleblock was performed on the mafia killer.

Alternate N3:
Mafia NK someone
Prober RB's the mafia carrying out the kill
Doc saves are irrelevant
Everything else remains the same

This would explain why there is no docsave or RB claim yet (from memory)

If I've missed or misremembered something or you disagree with an assumption or my logic, feel free to point it out, this is meant to be a theory of the most likely events.

This is logically consistent

[damo666]

I half agree with you. There are a *lot* of differences.

They both backfit evidence to support a pre held theory. Bozo's are more rational though.

I realise that was the similarity you found, especially in the context of brain's massive theory. However the way approach D1, posting, gut reads, claiming, rationality, logic and so on is very different.

Bob, I am not ghug.

[BobMcBob]

Good to hear that my theory doesn't have any gaping holes. I think that should be used as some kind of default theory, and I believe it is the most likely. That doesn't mean that other people can't/shouldn't continue to theorycraft, but I think it requires the least logical leaps and assumptions to pull off. It has the downside of being rather unexciting and not giving much interesting in the way of scum possibilities, but I think that's acceptable.

Also I know you're not ghug damo, why do you feel the need to clarify?

[Vecna]

I think its interesting to note that the people being roleblocked are most likely all players the aliens suspect of being scum, since that role is basically a cop.

It was thinking HR couldve expected a more favourable response from Macca because they learned their little secret, except I dont think aliens have daychat, so he couldnt have known yet about Macca's alignment unless there was some coding going on (which is still somewhat plausible).

[Vecna]

##vote Celaph

I guess....

[Vecna]

I cannot for the life of me figure out where people got the information the aliens only have 1 NK. Or have a NK whatsoever?

The only alien role card that mentions a NK is the alien vanillizer....

The setup also does not mention it anywhere

[Vecna]

nm, found it

[BobMcBob]

Lol, was just about to point you to it. Personally I think while the aliens may probe as a scan, they'd probe someone they thought was a dangerous PR very willingly. Also, why are you assuming that aliens found out that Macca was scum?

[brainbomb]

apparently the game wont progress without celaph flip and our bots broken anyway so

##vote celaph
##end

But I do believe bona and donny are aliens

[brainbomb]

the bot was still functional pre d3 so thats frustrating

[Bonatogether]

and in the process bona and donny were stunned and hadnt prepped in maf chat for this worst case scenario

If I'm stunned, why don't I revert to the semi-lurking I did the last two games?

Werent you town in those games? Pointing out that you didnt change behavior here would imply a meta shift.

Are you suggesting you are trying a new meta as vt?

I changed metas last game too, so yeah.

[Bonatogether]

Can someone less lazy than me go through the town PRs and determine how many of them can confirm themselves?

inno child, louds, masons, vig, invests, parrot

This is not quite accurate, for reasons I won't explain unless it becomes necessary (and I suggest nobody states why or discusses this at the moment. Looking at you bona)

:)

[brainbomb]

glad I could get my case done in time for no one to read it