MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

Never mind emoticons, Damo, I asked you something.

[Jamiet99uk]

Celaph's entire voting history.

D1 - Voted ND(Worcej) most of the day, jumped to Maniac at the last minute.

D2 - Voted EMC when EMC was a viable wagon. Stayed there all day when nobody else stayed on EMC. Apparently wasn't online at EoD.

D3 - Voted Brainbomb like everyone else.

D4 - Voted EMC and put EMC into the lead over Hamilton with that vote.

D5 - Voted Worcej briefly but then voted Bona to put Bona into the lead, and stayed there.

[Jamiet99uk]

So Celaph has a history of

(1) moving from Worcej onto townies who got flipped,
and
(2) voting for EMC.

The only time Celaph was involved in flipping scum, it was Brainbomb on D3 when literally everyone voted Brainbomb. On a pure VCA basis that looks slightly suspect from Celaph and if Celaph does turn out to be scum, it also doesn't look great for Worcej.

[Jamiet99uk]

Donny's voting history.

D1 - Voted President Eden, then Hamilton, then HR, then ended up on Maniac. His vote on Maniac put Maniac into the lead at the time it was cast.

D2 - Voted Bozo, Bona, Hamilton, then back to Bozo where he remained, as the only Bozo voter at EoD.

D3 - Voted for Brainbomb, like everyone else, but notably voted Brainbomb very quickly - he was the second voter on Brain.

D4 - Voted for EMC, then Hamilton, then EMC, then Hamilton.

D5 - Voted Bona, then Worcej, then Flum, then Bozo, then Bona. By the time he landed back on Bona at the end, there were no other wagons with more than two votes.

[Jamiet99uk]

So Donny has a history of:

(1)Moving his vote around a lot,
(2)Voting for Hamilton a lot but not sticking with it, until D4.

He gets some credit for how quickly he voted Brainbomb on D3 but the scumteam could have decided to jump on Brainbomb early, as a lost cause, rather than make any attempt to save him and risk exposing themselves.

[Chaqa]

Celaph looks like a good vote tomorrow.

[damo666]

@ Damo: You seem to keep changing your mind about EMC. Any particular reason?

I don't know that I keep changing my mind but I am wavering on him between a sort of 50/50 position to more of a scumlean. His absence doesn't help. I got nothing major on him.

[damo666]

Celaph looks like a good vote tomorrow.

He was a good vote yesterday.

[Jamiet99uk]

I don't know that I keep changing my mind...

Well,
you listed him in a four-person scumpool,
then you said you were totally unwilling to vote him,
then you went back to listing him in a relatively small scumpool.

[damo666]

I don't know that I keep changing my mind...

Well,
you listed him in a four-person scumpool,
then you said you were totally unwilling to vote him,
then you went back to listing him in a relatively small scumpool.

Can you quote this please?

[Jamiet99uk]

I don't know that I keep changing my mind...

Well,
you listed him in a four-person scumpool,
then you said you were totally unwilling to vote him,
then you went back to listing him in a relatively small scumpool.

Can you quote this please?

I am only willing to vote for the following today:

celaph HR Flum Bozo Donny [that order]

[Jamiet99uk]

^ Yes I can

[Jamiet99uk]

@Damo:

To set the whole of my observation in context, during N4 you said:

The scumpairs are 2 from celaph, Flum, HR and EMC.

Then during D5 you said:

I am only willing to vote for the following today:

celaph HR Flum Bozo Donny [that order]

Then I noticed that during the current phase, N5, you said:

Possible* scum: Celaph HR EMC Flum Bozo Donny

So to me it appears clear you removed EMC from your possible scum list, and now you've put him back on your suspect list.

[Jamiet99uk]

And just to be clear, yes I do think that saying "I am only willing to vote for the following today", naming a list that doesn't include EMC, represents a declaration that you will not vote EMC at that point. Yes?

[damo666]

And just to be clear, yes I do think that saying "I am only willing to vote for the following today", naming a list that doesn't include EMC, represents a declaration that you will not vote EMC at that point. Yes?

Yes, your interpretation is correct. I got to back and see why I was not willing to vote EMC at that time. Bear with me.

[damo666]

@Damo:

To set the whole of my observation in context, during N4 you said:

The scumpairs are 2 from celaph, Flum, HR and EMC.

Then during D5 you said:

I am only willing to vote for the following today:

celaph HR Flum Bozo Donny [that order]

Then I noticed that during the current phase, N5, you said:

Possible* scum: Celaph HR EMC Flum Bozo Donny

So to me it appears clear you removed EMC from your possible scum list, and now you've put him back on your suspect list.

At the time of the middle quote EMC and Bona were I think the top 2 wagons and I definitely didn't want Bona and wasn't feeling EMC at the time after him v HB. I much preferred celaph or the others.

I've now bumped EMC back up the list a bit. That's about it really. The main thing is I wanted movement from where we were at that time.

[President Eden]

I've just realized that Fluminator was also not around in the thread for EOD2. His last post is with over an hour remaining.

I think a lot of the reason mafia had to scramble at EOD2 was because two members weren't around. Worse, one was not voting Bona. That strongly points to celaph and Fluminator.

celaph looked impressive on Day 2 when reading ghug because I thought I saw a lot of nuanced consideration of ghug's personality vs his objectively suspicious behavior, but that obviously loses a lot of its persuasive power when the end result was to give a known mafia power role a pass on suspicious behavior.
A lot of my behavioral analysis on Fluminator actually comes from Durga, but Fluminator hasn't really done anything since subbing in, and I think it's been more than enough time to expect more. Compare to his play in M62 to see what I mean - he's done a lot less to try to find mafia this game and he's clearly a lot less invested. It sounds like he has legit IRL reasons for reduced investment, but then the time he does spend on the game is so low-impact.
Fluminator fits the "locked in" narrative because he voted for Bona with about 3 hours to go and had decided he wouldn't vote ghug on Day 2 earlier than that.
And it should be pointed out that they both voted for emc, not Brian, on Day 4. And while it looks like Brian's flip was inevitable in hindsight, for a lot of the day the wagons were tightly contested. Brian only became a majority wagon when I voted him with 10 minutes to go.

I think celaph is the better shot, but both are good.

If one or more is wrong:

- emc and bozo make some sense, but bozo can really only be mafia if emc is also mafia, based on Day 4. bozo went out of his way to reinforce a townread on emc, and I distinctly remember him pressing me, at least, to vote Brian instead when the wagons were tied with an hour to go. emc could honestly be mafia just as easily as celaph and Fluminator, I just think they're both more likely than emc.
- Donny Dude's D2 voting fits the profile of a mafia, but his activity throughout the game has seemed very earnest and solving to me, so I townread him. In fact, I do so strongly enough that if we somehow learned that none of celaph, Flum, bozo, and emc are mafia, I would probably start shooting ghug voters before him.
- Speaking of, if there are mafia among the ghug voters, then it's probably aaro or worcej, or I suppose both.
I don't see why Jamie would go out of his way to invent a slip theory he knew to be false to bus his teammate when he could just make logically correct arguments about ghug's behavior. It's not an impossible play obviously, just very unintuitive.
damo voted ghug at the last minute after helping me push brainbomb which just seems crazy to me if he's mafia, and it doesn't fit the way he played EOD in previous mafia games I saw, where he was generally absent and would literally just naked vote with 2 minutes left and peace out and dare town to punish him for it.
Chaqa has I guess a mafia range of infinity at this point, and he was on the wrong wagon Day 4, but I'm just not feeling it here. He did explicitly declare that he was fine killing Bona and around at EOD, but just decided to kill ghug anyway. I think ghug being a Roleblocker makes this play unlikely to come from mafia Chaqa.
worcej and aaro locked in on ghug relatively early, which fits the profile of a mafia team being too locked in to kill off Bona EOD2. aaro seems like the better answer in all cases I'm seeing if there's only one bus: aaro/celaph makes a lot of sense given the N1 kill, aaro/Flum makes more sense to me than worcej/Flum (though worcej/Flum would explain why Brian mixed up the subs).

Aaaaaaand...

- HR solely for respect, I think he's actually town but if y'all haven't won after taking everyone else out and he hasn't flipped, you should probably kill him on principle. You could say the same about Chaqa but between them I think HR is more likely mafia, though again I repeat that I don't think either is. Just, if you need my thoughts in the SHTF scenario where all of that is wrong, there you go.

In order:
1. celaph
2. Flum
3. emc
4. bozo (if emc is town, probably don't bother)
5. aaro
6. worcej
7. HR
8. Chaqa
9. Donny
10. Jamie
11. damo
12. me!

[President Eden]

I just want to say for context that I've been intermittently working on that post for the better part of 2 hours and haven't read a fucking thing from today.

So if it looks like I ignored something or interacted with something from today... now you know.

[President Eden]

Also, my smug trolling shitpost about worcej was not meant to be taken seriously.

Anything I said in the tryhard post is, though.

[Donny Dude]

I've just realized that Fluminator was also not around in the thread for EOD2. His last post is with over an hour remaining.

I think a lot of the reason mafia had to scramble at EOD2 was because two members weren't around. Worse, one was not voting Bona. That strongly points to celaph and Fluminator.

celaph looked impressive on Day 2 when reading ghug because I thought I saw a lot of nuanced consideration of ghug's personality vs his objectively suspicious behavior, but that obviously loses a lot of its persuasive power when the end result was to give a known mafia power role a pass on suspicious behavior.
A lot of my behavioral analysis on Fluminator actually comes from Durga, but Fluminator hasn't really done anything since subbing in, and I think it's been more than enough time to expect more. Compare to his play in M62 to see what I mean - he's done a lot less to try to find mafia this game and he's clearly a lot less invested. It sounds like he has legit IRL reasons for reduced investment, but then the time he does spend on the game is so low-impact.
Fluminator fits the "locked in" narrative because he voted for Bona with about 3 hours to go and had decided he wouldn't vote ghug on Day 2 earlier than that.
And it should be pointed out that they both voted for emc, not Brian, on Day 4. And while it looks like Brian's flip was inevitable in hindsight, for a lot of the day the wagons were tightly contested. Brian only became a majority wagon when I voted him with 10 minutes to go.

I think celaph is the better shot, but both are good.

If one or more is wrong:

- emc and bozo make some sense, but bozo can really only be mafia if emc is also mafia, based on Day 4. bozo went out of his way to reinforce a townread on emc, and I distinctly remember him pressing me, at least, to vote Brian instead when the wagons were tied with an hour to go. emc could honestly be mafia just as easily as celaph and Fluminator, I just think they're both more likely than emc.
- Donny Dude's D2 voting fits the profile of a mafia, but his activity throughout the game has seemed very earnest and solving to me, so I townread him. In fact, I do so strongly enough that if we somehow learned that none of celaph, Flum, bozo, and emc are mafia, I would probably start shooting ghug voters before him.
- Speaking of, if there are mafia among the ghug voters, then it's probably aaro or worcej, or I suppose both.
I don't see why Jamie would go out of his way to invent a slip theory he knew to be false to bus his teammate when he could just make logically correct arguments about ghug's behavior. It's not an impossible play obviously, just very unintuitive.
damo voted ghug at the last minute after helping me push brainbomb which just seems crazy to me if he's mafia, and it doesn't fit the way he played EOD in previous mafia games I saw, where he was generally absent and would literally just naked vote with 2 minutes left and peace out and dare town to punish him for it.
Chaqa has I guess a mafia range of infinity at this point, and he was on the wrong wagon Day 4, but I'm just not feeling it here. He did explicitly declare that he was fine killing Bona and around at EOD, but just decided to kill ghug anyway. I think ghug being a Roleblocker makes this play unlikely to come from mafia Chaqa.
worcej and aaro locked in on ghug relatively early, which fits the profile of a mafia team being too locked in to kill off Bona EOD2. aaro seems like the better answer in all cases I'm seeing if there's only one bus: aaro/celaph makes a lot of sense given the N1 kill, aaro/Flum makes more sense to me than worcej/Flum (though worcej/Flum would explain why Brian mixed up the subs).

Aaaaaaand...

- HR solely for respect, I think he's actually town but if y'all haven't won after taking everyone else out and he hasn't flipped, you should probably kill him on principle. You could say the same about Chaqa but between them I think HR is more likely mafia, though again I repeat that I don't think either is. Just, if you need my thoughts in the SHTF scenario where all of that is wrong, there you go.

In order:
1. celaph
2. Flum
3. emc
4. bozo (if emc is town, probably don't bother)
5. aaro
6. worcej
7. HR
8. Chaqa
9. Donny
10. Jamie
11. damo
12. me!

It is interesting to see eden's perspective considering he has not played with me before compared to others.