M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[dargorygel]

I'd like to see our daykill chaqa or rdr at this point.
##VOTE RDRIVERA2005

This would point to chaqa and darg being the 2 low value scum as I suspected.

So, best guess is now

[0,1] Macca Bunny
[0,1] kgray Jamie
darg & Chaqa

so

MDC + K/R/B/J
BDC + K/R/J
KDC + R/B
JDC + R/B

best guess MDC+K (not taking VCA into account)

Because i voted today for rdrivera instead of chaqa?
Unless i voted (as I have been) alongside my strongest townreads...

But anyway
damo, what do you think of the idea of scum white flagging? You answered about the 'no recruiting' concept...

[BunnyGo]

##Vote Kgray
##Vote Chaqa

I assume this means these are his 2 lockscum

No, he was answering kgray.

But a previous post suggested they were his lockscum.

[BunnyGo]

Looking again at the cost list.

Perhaps the scumteam did the Basic Package of 90 (chat and recruit) and then did the white flag.

The list of PR's is not a list of amazingly powerful roles.

Perhaps they realized that their best defense was to have money for some RB’s and RC’s.

White-flagging would obv gain them 20. And thus some bucks to do stuff.
Marking off our known/dead roles, what would their best buys have been? Theories abound, but to me nothing stands out as a WOW THAT IS WHAT THEY WOULD BUY item.

I am not saying they did NOT choose any Roles. I am saying that they bought the white flag, and then some mid-range or cheap roles (or no roles) and had money to spend all game.

Is it Occam’s razor to deduce that they chose to give themselves action-cash?
If they were out of cash last night… wouldn’t they have kept status quo (not hurt their position) by no killing and gaining 3?

Their simplest, no wifom (for them) plan might have been to do exactly as Jamie and kgray are claiming they did last night. It ensured the kill they most desired.

I would not have expected the most mechanical among us to choose this route. So not bozo, or vecna, or flum, or bunny. Maybe not Jamie. But the rest of us might have rolled that dice.

Might they have been rolecopping us the first few nights and that's how they hit the double voter? And even when "dodging the doctor saves" they hit the neighborizer and double voter. They might have known.

[BunnyGo]

I'd like to see our daykill chaqa or rdr at this point.
##VOTE RDRIVERA2005

why?

[BunnyGo]

True. Maybe they assumed they wouldn't need to save money for future RBs because it looks like we're about to miskill...

How did they have that much money in the first place?

80 to recruit, and 4 for role blocks, leaves only 6 coins for purchasing. If they didn't take 2 cheap roles, they took the white flag.

Maybe they didn't recruit after all?

Maybe? Just have coin galore and rolecop every night and now start roleblocking every night and our doctors are nerfed?

[BunnyGo]

There's a bit of WIFOM here, but if Kgray and I are scum Faith Healers together, would it not have made much more sense for us to agree that one of us would claim they attempted to save Vecna, but were Roleblocked, to gain a little towncred, while the other claimed a self-save or something? Or for some real fun, we could both have claimed we protected Vecna, thus foiling each other (oh no!).

If anything the events of last night make me lean towards Kgray being town because in this situation I don't see why scum Kgray wouldn't claim to have attempted to protect Vecna.

There's a lot of WIFOM. Would scum healers have just claimed to BOTH save Vecna? In fact, why NOT both save vecna? If I had tracked you instead of dargo, I'd have seen you go to Vecna and you'd have an excuse.

The fun reason is if you're both scum, then you probably have no coin left to actually RB me or anyone. And these claims are a nice deception to throw us off our mechanical count.

[BunnyGo]

I'd like to see our daykill chaqa or rdr at this point.
##VOTE RDRIVERA2005

This would point to chaqa and darg being the 2 low value scum as I suspected.

So, best guess is now

[0,1] Macca Bunny
[0,1] kgray Jamie
darg & Chaqa

so

MDC + K/R/B/J
BDC + K/R/J
KDC + R/B
JDC + R/B

best guess MDC+K (not taking VCA into account)

This post makes me want to vomit for so many reasons.

It is so bad my loins have stopped tingling from rdr's brilliance.

Who are you, and what have you done with the damo I was townreading so far?

[BunnyGo]

And where are Macca and Chaqa? They have done nothing today but make a couple anchor posts.

[TheMadMonarch]

And where are Macca and Chaqa? They have done nothing today but make a couple anchor posts.

I got work for the first time in 2 months. (plus school, that exists too).

[TheMadMonarch]

I attempted to protect Macca.

Thanks, but why?

Do you believe him?

I don't see a reason for him to lie.

[TheMadMonarch]

I attempted to protect Macca.

Thanks, but why?

I felt if you were town, you were the second most likely target after Vecna.

I did not protect Vecna because he was the most obvious kill target, and therefore: 1) There seemed a not insignificant chance that Kgray would try to protect him (and if we both did that, it would fail), and 2) If the Scum were going to use a Roleblock, this would be the night.

Because of (1) I deliberately attempted to select a viable target that I thought Kgray would not have picked. I got this half right. And (2) proved to be entirely correct since I *was* roleblocked as I suspected I might be.

I am sorry we did not save Vecna but if the scum had determined to kill him, there was going to be no stopping them, since they apparently had enough credit left for two roleblocks.

Does the fact that the scum had at least $4.00 left at the end of D5 tell us anything? Damo do you have any theories?

Why am I the next obvious kill target?

I am:
Being scumread by multiple people
Have no use left on my role (that everyone knows I have)
Not providing anything much useful to the discussion


Why would I be a target?

[BunnyGo]

And where are Macca and Chaqa? They have done nothing today but make a couple anchor posts.

I got work for the first time in 2 months. (plus school, that exists too).

Congratulations

[Jamiet99uk]

Thanks, but why?

I felt if you were town, you were the second most likely target after Vecna.

I did not protect Vecna because he was the most obvious kill target, and therefore: 1) There seemed a not insignificant chance that Kgray would try to protect him (and if we both did that, it would fail), and 2) If the Scum were going to use a Roleblock, this would be the night.

Because of (1) I deliberately attempted to select a viable target that I thought Kgray would not have picked. I got this half right. And (2) proved to be entirely correct since I *was* roleblocked as I suspected I might be.

I am sorry we did not save Vecna but if the scum had determined to kill him, there was going to be no stopping them, since they apparently had enough credit left for two roleblocks.

Does the fact that the scum had at least $4.00 left at the end of D5 tell us anything? Damo do you have any theories?

Why am I the next obvious kill target?

I am:
Being scumread by multiple people
Have no use left on my role (that everyone knows I have)
Not providing anything much useful to the discussion

Why would I be a target?

Because to me, you looked earnest and truthful after the confirmation of your Governor ability use.

[dargorygel]

Bunny, your addition regarding the value of the Role Cop (purchased) use makes a lot of sense.

I think scum chose the Basic Package and White Flag. (For the purpose of having money to spend.)

And they randed the rest of the roles.

IF they had chosen a logical system of roles, that system could be deduced, leaving a paperless trail.

And I do not see any roles for scum that would be ‘better’ than a RC/RB combination. They might have chosen some roles just to keep those roles out of our hands, but their plan would not NEED that.

They would have safety in that randomness. And who knows, maybe they would rand the more useful roles anyway?

The more we argue about usefulness of roles, the happier the scum team would be.
-=-=-=-=-=-

For this day… obviously we need consolidation. Any outliers at EoD provide an opportunity for a scum dogpile (unless they did not recruit.)

Thus my vote for RDRivera. He is not my top scumread. But he IS a scumread. And my top townreads are there already.

It’s early in the day, so we have time to consolidate somewhere else (I DID like rdr’s latest posts.) But we all have to agree on someone.

We might be able to piece together who they RC’d, if we laid out who examined/followed/looked at whom every night. But I am not sure how much value that would be.

I will not be around much until Thursday. I will try to at least read.

[rdrivera2005]

There's a bit of WIFOM here, but if Kgray and I are scum Faith Healers together, would it not have made much more sense for us to agree that one of us would claim they attempted to save Vecna, but were Roleblocked, to gain a little towncred, while the other claimed a self-save or something? Or for some real fun, we could both have claimed we protected Vecna, thus foiling each other (oh no!).

If anything the events of last night make me lean towards Kgray being town because in this situation I don't see why scum Kgray wouldn't claim to have attempted to protect Vecna.

Agree. I don't think you and Kgray coordinated your story and are both scum. But if one of you is scum and scum choose to RB the town one (you) then the scum one, (Kgray) also need to claim a RB otherwise it will be highly suspicious.

[damo666]

I'd like to see our daykill chaqa or rdr at this point.
##VOTE RDRIVERA2005

This would point to chaqa and darg being the 2 low value scum as I suspected.

So, best guess is now

[0,1] Macca Bunny
[0,1] kgray Jamie
darg & Chaqa

so

MDC + K/R/B/J
BDC + K/R/J
KDC + R/B
JDC + R/B

best guess MDC+K (not taking VCA into account)

Because i voted today for rdrivera instead of chaqa?
Unless i voted (as I have been) alongside my strongest townreads...

But anyway
damo, what do you think of the idea of scum white flagging? You answered about the 'no recruiting' concept...

I guess it's possible and the way they're running looks a good gamble. I personally think recruiting and whiteflagging run counter-intuitive and I would be very anti but then thankfully not everyone thinks like me. I'd put it at something like a 20-25% chance. The safest assumption is they didn't do it and if we kill 3 scum in a row to win it will be a nice surprise and I'll laugh my socks off at scum's stupid decision.

[damo666]

Bunny, your addition regarding the value of the Role Cop (purchased) use makes a lot of sense.

I think scum chose the Basic Package and White Flag. (For the purpose of having money to spend.)

And they randed the rest of the roles.

IF they had chosen a logical system of roles, that system could be deduced, leaving a paperless trail.

And I do not see any roles for scum that would be ‘better’ than a RC/RB combination. They might have chosen some roles just to keep those roles out of our hands, but their plan would not NEED that.

They would have safety in that randomness. And who knows, maybe they would rand the more useful roles anyway?

The more we argue about usefulness of roles, the happier the scum team would be.
-=-=-=-=-=-

For this day… obviously we need consolidation. Any outliers at EoD provide an opportunity for a scum dogpile (unless they did not recruit.)

Thus my vote for RDRivera. He is not my top scumread. But he IS a scumread. And my top townreads are there already.

It’s early in the day, so we have time to consolidate somewhere else (I DID like rdr’s latest posts.) But we all have to agree on someone.

We might be able to piece together who they RC’d, if we laid out who examined/followed/looked at whom every night. But I am not sure how much value that would be.

I will not be around much until Thursday. I will try to at least read.

This smacks of trying to distract us from concentrating on the low cost roles two of which I am convinced scum bought.

[damo666]

There's a bit of WIFOM here, but if Kgray and I are scum Faith Healers together, would it not have made much more sense for us to agree that one of us would claim they attempted to save Vecna, but were Roleblocked, to gain a little towncred, while the other claimed a self-save or something? Or for some real fun, we could both have claimed we protected Vecna, thus foiling each other (oh no!).

If anything the events of last night make me lean towards Kgray being town because in this situation I don't see why scum Kgray wouldn't claim to have attempted to protect Vecna.

Agree. I don't think you and Kgray coordinated your story and are both scum. But if one of you is scum and scum choose to RB the town one (you) then the scum one, (Kgray) also need to claim a RB otherwise it will be highly suspicious.

Another towny post from rdr consolidating my darg + chaqa theory

[rdrivera2005]

There is no universe where scum didn't recruit considering the already know town roles. Discussing this is non-sense at best and maybe scummy.

To be able to have 4 points to double RB scum either took 2 low cost roles (on my POV it need to be Tree Stump and FV) or took white flag (which I personally won't ever choose).

Or at least one RB is fake and scum choose between Trackers, UB and Tree Stump. As I think kgray was recruited this is the scenario I think it's most likely.

I will vote Chaqa or Kgray today and I think it's clear now I am the misskill scum want. Kgray is preparing this for a long time...

[Chaqa]

And where are Macca and Chaqa? They have done nothing today but make a couple anchor posts.

I just woke up lol