M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[ghug]

Good morning everyone. I will be catching up where I left off yesterday, replying to major themes and direct questions. lmk if there's something urgent that needs to be answered.

Overexplainy
Jamie has been doing this too
Scum scum scum scum squared

[bo_sox48]

Good fucking god yall talk a lot

[Jamiet99uk]

Vote Count 1.4
Fluminator (4) BunnyGo Jamiet99uk dargorygel damo666
teacon7(3) Vecna kgray rdrivera2005
Jamiet99uk (2) ghug Fluminator
dargorygel (1) bozotheclown
Vecna (1) bo_sox48
bo_sox48 (1) Maniac
Unvote (1) Hamilton Brian
rdrivera2005 (1) teacon7
ghug (1) Macca573

Not Voting
Chaqa Hellenic Riot seth24c
There are 4 hours and 10 minutes left in Day.

Man that's hard to read. It takes seconds to add some punctuation, like this:

Fluminator (4) - BunnyGo, Jamiet99uk, dargorygel, damo666
teacon7(3) - Vecna, kgray, rdrivera2005
Jamiet99uk (2) - ghug, Fluminator
dargorygel (1) - bozotheclown
Vecna (1) - bo_sox48
bo_sox48 (1) - Maniac
Unvote (1) - Hamilton Brian
rdrivera2005 (1) - teacon7
ghug (1) - Macca573
Brainbomb (1) - RagingIke

[Jamiet99uk]

Are you asking what I think the mafia did? I think it likely they recruited and avoided going negative by selecting cheap roles.

You seem to be drawing some conclusions, on the basis of four of the responses you received, but one of those is yourself, so must be discounted, leaving three. 3/18 is a very small sample. On what basis can you use this sample group to draw any meaningful conclusions? More importantly, you are using the responses of a sample of three people to draw inferences about what the Mafia did, and you think you are able to conclude that your result is "likely". Your conclusion matches most closely the responses of Rdrivera and Dargorygel.

This imples that you think either:

(a) Rdrivera and Dargorygel are scum, and gave honest answers,
or
(b) Rdrivera and Dargorygel's answers, while not from scum, are highly representative of the answers scum would have given.

Discuss.

The primary purpose of the survey was to see who would respond in a way that implied they had not already carefully considered the best options for the mafia, which in my opinion 10 players did. You have to look at those responses individually to form an opinion about which ones are more likely to be true and which ones are more likely to be fake.

Okay.

1. That is potentially a good use of the survey. So, people who gave poorly considered or flippant answers seemed townie to you because they might not actually have been in the Mafia QT thinking all this over? Hm, perhaps.

2. Still, I would like you to expand on how you reached a "likely" conclusion about what the Mafia may have actually done, based only on Rdrivera and Dargorygel's responses - because this is where your conclusion (highlighted) seems to come from.

[BunnyGo]

You are incorrect. Will you buy me a pizza if I'm town?

Stoooooop
Stoooooooooop
Stoooooop

Also Jamie didn't
Offer to buy Flum pizza
Because he is scum

I will buy Fluminator a pizza if you are scum.

Happy?

WTF?

[BunnyGo]

@teacon: With your KiLo and MiLo analysis, why choose investigative instead of vote manipulative?

(did that answer your question what I've been doing?)

[ghug]

So far only rdrivera, damo, and dargorygel have answered my question with a complete answer without giving some indication that they had not carefully consider it. Each presented a different strategy that seems reasonable (dargorygel's response was the same as mine):

rdrivera: recruit, select cheap roles, leave money for RBs.

dargorygel: recruit, day chat, select cheap roles.

damo: do not recruit, select strong roles, leave money for RBs.

Bozo, why do you
Not include my great response?
It was, again, great

[bozotheclown]

You seem to be drawing some conclusions, on the basis of four of the responses you received, but one of those is yourself, so must be discounted, leaving three. 3/18 is a very small sample. On what basis can you use this sample group to draw any meaningful conclusions? More importantly, you are using the responses of a sample of three people to draw inferences about what the Mafia did, and you think you are able to conclude that your result is "likely". Your conclusion matches most closely the responses of Rdrivera and Dargorygel.

This imples that you think either:

(a) Rdrivera and Dargorygel are scum, and gave honest answers,
or
(b) Rdrivera and Dargorygel's answers, while not from scum, are highly representative of the answers scum would have given.

Discuss.

The primary purpose of the survey was to see who would respond in a way that implied they had not already carefully considered the best options for the mafia, which in my opinion 10 players did. You have to look at those responses individually to form an opinion about which ones are more likely to be true and which ones are more likely to be fake.

Okay.

1. That is potentially a good use of the survey. So, people who gave poorly considered or flippant answers seemed townie to you because they might not actually have been in the Mafia QT thinking all this over? Hm, perhaps.

2. Still, I would like you to expand on how you reached a "likely" conclusion about what the Mafia may have actually done, based only on Rdrivera and Dargorygel's responses - because this is where your conclusion (highlighted) seems to come from.

That conclusion came from what I would have done and confirmed by rdrivera and dargorygel as reasonable, but I am still allowing for the possibility the mafia went the way damo suggested.

[Hellenic Riot]

@Bozo

I'd recruit and take both trackers to spend my $90, and then go into debt to take the 1-Shot Follower as well, which would leave me with -$3, which you just NK N1 to get yourself back out of debt.

Maybe I'd consider also taking the Universal Backup and NK'ing a couple more times. Essentially the goal would be to make the scum team completely immune to being investigated.

[bo_sox48]

@bo_sox
@Chaqa
@dargorygel
@Hamilton
@HR
@Maniac
@Vecna

Can you please tell me what choices you would have made if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

If not, can you please tell me why you can't or don't want to answer the question?

I don't know, because I have only glanced at the setup. I know the mafia pick some roles out of a hat and recruit someone. I know they have money or some shit to do things with. I would probably have recruited someone who obvtowned during the pregame, which from my perspective excludes Jamie, ghug, and Vecna, and gone into major debt to get some fancy toys assuming that we can all lurk our way to not dying D1 (which means that Chaqa isn't on my team).

[ghug]

Okay, thank you. This is a reasonable explanation. The way you worded your response seemed a little weird initially, but ok.

Why not recruit? Surely having an extra team member is a big boost.

I wouldn't have recruited because I'd want the $ for other things. Whenever you get there, you'll find the crazy theory/strategy I sent to the godthread. I thought they could rolecop 15 times at once on N1 (which is illegal, as it turns out, but it's what I'd have tried to do.)

As for non-recruiting, it makes scum a smaller target in the lynch pool. yeah, the team gets to mylo one day faster. But if maf has encryption and town has gladiator, that doesn't seem like too big a deal.

contrast no-recruit:
d1 15 3
d2 13 3
d3 11 3
d4 09 3
d5 07 3
d6 05 3 mylo

with what happens when they recruit:
d1 14 4
d2 12 4
d3 10 4
d4 08 4
d5 06 4 mylo

Without investigative roles, it's more likely that town tears itself apart than anything else. Two investigative roles + something protective. I didn't think about it much more than that because I didn't roll scum.

(sidebar: what do we call lylo / mylo now? also what's the new word for ML? It's double plus ungood for me to switch to new words if i can't make them acronymns lol)

Did you really ask
About replacements for [word]
And also use [word]?

[ghug]

I'll change my vote from HR, since it was only there because he surprised me by his silence.

I am going to pick a low hanging fruit, though. Low posters early on are in my scum pool.

Chaqa also had some odd things going on D1. He needs some chipotle, or he is scum.

##VOTE CHAQA

Had? It's still day one
What sorts of odd things see you?
Why are unvotes bad?

What is the relationship between this highlighted question and the post you quoted, which does not mention unvotes?

It was in the post
He made directly before
Please keep up, Jamie

[ghug]

I hate to give up the tell on Jamiet because then he can rectify it in future games. But he's still scum.

Oogie oogie oo
Gie. You drive me crazy with
That boogie boogie

Am I your top scumread, yes?

Who do you think I am scum with, why do you think that, and what level of confidence do you have in these reads?

Dude, it is day one
These questions are not good ones
I just know you're scum

[bo_sox48]

##vote Flum

I think he's got caught and is flapping.

Flum the sealion

You think Flum is "flapping" because he made an obvious joke scumslip?

[bozotheclown]

So far only rdrivera, damo, and dargorygel have answered my question with a complete answer without giving some indication that they had not carefully consider it. Each presented a different strategy that seems reasonable (dargorygel's response was the same as mine):

rdrivera: recruit, select cheap roles, leave money for RBs.

dargorygel: recruit, day chat, select cheap roles.

damo: do not recruit, select strong roles, leave money for RBs.

Bozo, why do you
Not include my great response?
It was, again, great

Yeah.

Also seems wiser to pluck as many investigative roles as possible, but maybe bozo prefers to defund the police.

What would you have done then?

Recruit, tree stump, even tracker, backup maybe? I'd actually read all the roles and think on it some.

I'd consider going into debt for the Vengeful if it were a little cheaper. Maybe day chat.

You indicated you had not carefully consider it a number of ways, most significantly by saying you had not read all of the roles.

[ghug]

You are incorrect. Will you buy me a pizza if I'm town?

Stoooooop
Stoooooooooop
Stoooooop

Also Jamie didn't
Offer to buy Flum pizza
Because he is scum

I will buy Fluminator a pizza if you are scum.

Happy?

Nope. I am not, no
Not happy at all at all
Never pizza for ghug

[BunnyGo]

Stoooooop
Stoooooooooop
Stoooooop

Also Jamie didn't
Offer to buy Flum pizza
Because he is scum

I will buy Fluminator a pizza if you are scum.

Happy?

Nope. I am not, no
Not happy at all at all
Never pizza for ghug

5-7-6...SCUM!!!

kidding. I agree with your sentiment.

[ghug]

So far only rdrivera, damo, and dargorygel have answered my question with a complete answer without giving some indication that they had not carefully consider it. Each presented a different strategy that seems reasonable (dargorygel's response was the same as mine):

rdrivera: recruit, select cheap roles, leave money for RBs.

dargorygel: recruit, day chat, select cheap roles.

damo: do not recruit, select strong roles, leave money for RBs.

Bozo, why do you
Not include my great response?
It was, again, great

What would you have done then?

Recruit, tree stump, even tracker, backup maybe? I'd actually read all the roles and think on it some.

I'd consider going into debt for the Vengeful if it were a little cheaper. Maybe day chat.

You indicated you had not carefully consider it a number of ways, most significantly by saying you had not read all of the roles.

I answered again
Because you disliked my post
Don't ignore me, dad

[teacon7]

First, a couple replies to Bunny.

I don't recall ever playing with you before. Have we played together? I think I'd remember you.

We played as reavers together in m52:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/m52/game_status.txt

You don't remember this? We worked hard enough at passing the silly press rules that we didn't get caught by town so much as dinged on minor things by the GM. Fun game.

[Hellenic Riot]

Teacon's really not living up to my memory of him as a perpetual lurker