M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[Jamiet99uk]

It looks like I have some catching up to do. That happens when you sleep. I will do so from my last post, Vecna style, so excuse me if I say anything that then becomes redundant when I read the next page, but I'm working fast.

[bozotheclown]

Why answer this and not my original question?

I think I did answer your original question, but I had not yet answered your follow up question, so I thought commenting on this post would serve to answer your follow up question.

By original, I did mean the follow up question, my mistake.

You didn't answer it though.

Do you now realize the issues with your response to what choices you would have made as mafia? Do you have a modified answer?

[Jamiet99uk]

I meant does the reason I picked them affect your answer.

It was just random, to make the question meet your conditions for being able to answer the question.

Ok. Well as others are pointing out, I'd recruit yet another scum because with a five strong scumteam in a game this size we'd be pretty overpowering. I'd also take the Public Vanilla and the Restless Spirit (to maintain voting power) and otherwise let the dice fall where they may.

I assume the 5 mafia part was deliberate to answer my flawed scenario, but do you think the mafia can choose less than 3 roles?

I don't see anything in Worcej's setup posts which specifically forbids them from doing so.

What's the GM going to do if they refuse to pick all three roles, modkill one of them? I dunno.

If the GM told me that wasn't allowed to leave any of the roles to chance, the third role I would opt for, would probably be Universal Backup.

[dargorygel]

I do not expect folk to remember, but Wednesdays are chaos days... don't expect to see me much.

@kgray
I expected scum to be quieter before the Big Reveal because they would not change their meta after the Big Reveal... since they would know at least their alignment.

[dargorygel]

@damo
What did i learn from my vote-request?

What I HOPED to learn will not come out till later in the game. I expect that scum would not bus each other during that early phase. So as scum are revealed, we might have some more deductive material.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Ghug: Who does Bozo currently scumread, and why?

ROFL. OK, town points for jamie.

For making a joke?

I'm funnier when I'm under pressure. Fact. And I feel more under pressure as town, because I enjoy being scum, whereas as town, clowns like you give me a hard time because you can't read me. It's more fun for me to be scum and have you not be able to read me. Fact.

[TheMadMonarch]

I think I did answer your original question, but I had not yet answered your follow up question, so I thought commenting on this post would serve to answer your follow up question.

By original, I did mean the follow up question, my mistake.

You didn't answer it though.

Do you now realize the issues with your response to what choices you would have made as mafia? Do you have a modified answer?

Provided my team was more confident than I was (quite likely), then more roles would have been available. I can do a re-do, and account for debt if you'd like?

[dargorygel]

I do not like all the unvotes.

Not only did it confuse me when I woke up... but it indicates to me, tunneling.

[dargorygel]

I'll change my vote from HR, since it was only there because he surprised me by his silence.

I am going to pick a low hanging fruit, though. Low posters early on are in my scum pool.

Chaqa also had some odd things going on D1. He needs some chipotle, or he is scum.

##VOTE CHAQA

[bozotheclown]

@bo_sox
@Chaqa
@dargorygel
@Hamilton
@HR
@Maniac
@Vecna

Can you please tell me what choices you would have made if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

If not, can you please tell me why you can't or don't want to answer the question?

[bozotheclown]

By original, I did mean the follow up question, my mistake.

You didn't answer it though.

Do you now realize the issues with your response to what choices you would have made as mafia? Do you have a modified answer?

Provided my team was more confident than I was (quite likely), then more roles would have been available. I can do a re-do, and account for debt if you'd like?

OK, I would like to know what you think would have been optimal for the mafia.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

It's like Monty Hall
You're computing from the start
But we've learned new things

Ghug is correct here. Teacon is commenting as if we're still in the "pre-game".

Way down in New Orleans, yeah.
I met this old lady,
she said she'd teach me 'bout Voodoo
she said she knew about Voodoo (Voodoo?)
she said she'd teach me 'bout Voodoo
she said she knew about Voodoo (Voodoo!)

[damo666]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

X is declared Public Vanilla (PV)

Let g be probability mafia assign PV to one of the original 3 mafia
Let r be the probability mafia recruit

Then:

Probability X is original scum = g

Probability X is recruit is (1-g)r/15

Probability X is town is (1-g)r14/15+(1-g)(1-r)

Putting some guesses for g and r in...

Say g is 10% and r is 90% we get

X is original scum 10%
X is recruited scum 5.4%
X is town 84.6%.

I think most people would agree g<.5 and r>.5 so rdrivera is likely town.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'll change my vote from HR, since it was only there because he surprised me by his silence.

I am going to pick a low hanging fruit, though. Low posters early on are in my scum pool.

Chaqa also had some odd things going on D1. He needs some chipotle, or he is scum.

##VOTE CHAQA

One of the things that bothers me about Chaqa is he told Fluminator he'd join him on Ghug, but then he didn't.

##VOTE CHAQA as I continue to catch up.

[damo666]

Take a square piece of paper, fold it in half 4 times and cut along resultant folds. Write the 16 names on the 16 same size squares of paper and screw each one up into a little scrunchy ball. Put the 16 little scrunchies into a pot with a lid and shake up and down. Remove lid and select 2 scrunchies, open and read names. This is what Bozo did.

While possible, it seems unlikely that he would go to such lengths for such a simple statement.

You are correct, I did not make an effort to do a blind random selection.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

X is declared Public Vanilla (PV)

Let g be probability mafia assign PV to one of the original 3 mafia
Let r be the probability mafia recruit

Then:

Probability X is original scum = g

Probability X is recruit is (1-g)r/15

Probability X is town is (1-g)r14/15+(1-g)(1-r)

Putting some guesses for g and r in...

Say g is 10% and r is 90% we get

X is original scum 10%
X is recruited scum 5.4%
X is town 84.6%.

I think most people would agree g<.5 and r>.5 so rdrivera is likely town.

I challenge the 10% you have assigned to g. I think it's too low.

If I was on the scum team I would totally have advocated for selecting PV as one of the slots.

[dargorygel]

Sorry Bozo… meant to do this before bedtime.
I would want the daychat and the extra scum.

Which spends my budget.

I would grab the Neighborizer…just because.
I would not care about the free PV.
I would grab the gladiator… because death to the enemy. (And I do NOT want it out there.)

I would grab the stump (which is not as bad as I had thought) for the +2

The +2 I would save for in game RB or RC, because I don’t see the value of low cost other things.

[damo666]

@damo
What did i learn from my vote-request?

What I HOPED to learn will not come out till later in the game. I expect that scum would not bus each other during that early phase. So as scum are revealed, we might have some more deductive material.

Why wouldn't they bus?

[dargorygel]

@Jamie
In the past you have pushed hard for DKing low-low posters. Do you still hate low-low posters? IS there a song you can quote about them?

[dargorygel]

@damo
What did i learn from my vote-request?

What I HOPED to learn will not come out till later in the game. I expect that scum would not bus each other during that early phase. So as scum are revealed, we might have some more deductive material.

Why wouldn't they bus?

Because I would expect scum to not draw threads so early... when scum bus, it seems to me they usually do so with articulated reasons. Not just because some silly survey-like thing asked them to. Bussing is a power that should not be wasted.