M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[bozotheclown]

Apparently I was not clear, I would like everyone to please answer this question:

What would you have chosen if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

[bozotheclown]

@Bozo: What do you think of the responses to your survey, so far?

So far only ghug has come close to participating.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Bozo: What do you think of the responses to your survey, so far?

So far only ghug has come close to participating.

And I told you why I am not participating.

[ghug]

@Bozo: What do you think of the responses to your survey, so far?

So far only ghug has come close to participating.

And I told you why I am not participating.

Is it because it'll help us find your teammates once you flip?

[Jamiet99uk]

So far only ghug has come close to participating.

And I told you why I am not participating.

Is it because it'll help us find your teammates once you flip?

I refer you to the post I have already made.

[BunnyGo]

Ok I townread teacon.

With the prior that rd is the vanilla, I think option B is more likely, even when removing your faulty ascribed motivation. This might shift him slightly towards scum, but not enough to policy vote him.

Having just posted that asking damo to compute odds is useless, I still take umbrage with the misuse of "prior".

Knowing rdr is vanilla shouldn't change your balance between those two options. The balance of the two shouldn't change when you find out he is vanilla. The point of teacon's question is to remove the knowledge of what happened from your analysis.

I'm rejecting teacon's framing because the scum option is framed to account for the reduced set of options given that we now know his role, whereas the town option is not.

I'm saying that we should be considering the state of the world now in examining both possibilities, making rd's now known role a component of the prior distribution and treating the unknown as his alignment, because that's where we are.

Don't try to math me. I used to be smart.

It's soooo tempting. I used to teach math to arrogant math majors. The statement "what are the odds rdr would get vanilla??!" the answer is 100%...because it happened. But OK...let's move on.

[BunnyGo]

@Bozo: What do you think of the responses to your survey, so far?

There's a bozo survey I missed?

[BunnyGo]

Apparently I was not clear, I would like everyone to please answer this question:

What would you have chosen if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

Oh, I don't know the roles well enough. But I'd definitely take a new recruit. I'd consider going negative and gambling on surviving D1. I'd prioritize sneaky power roles like the double vote or was there one the GM mentioned that could vote after dead?! That'd be awesome. I agree I'd leave aggro roles for town to kill themselves.

[bozotheclown]

@Bozo: What do you think of the responses to your survey, so far?

So far only ghug has come close to participating.

And I told you why I am not participating.

As a response to your reason for evading the question, I asked you what you would do if you were scum with HR, Maniac, and Macca.

[Jamiet99uk]

So far only ghug has come close to participating.

And I told you why I am not participating.

As a response to your reason for evading the question, I asked you what you would do if you were scum with HR, Maniac, and Macca.

Why did you pick those people?

[kgray]

I said I wanted to be recruited, and teacon made a case for why he'd be a good choice, although he later said he didn't want to be picked. I don't think bo asked to be recruited.

How likely would it be for scum to ask to be recruited? Teacon makes a case, pulls it back. Scum lean or Not scum lean?

I don't think asking to be recruited is particularly alignment indicative, because I think it depends a lot on the person. People who try mind games and fake outs (like Flum) would probably be more likely to ask to be recruited as scum than people who play a more straight-up game (like bozo).

In general, I'd guess that overall scum would be less inclined to draw attention to the idea of themselves being scum, so without knowing anything about teacon or his playstyle, I'd lean slight town on his initial alignment. That doesn't tell us anything about whether mafia did actually recruit him, though.

[damo666]

I don't believe rd is clear, but we definitely shouldn't be policy voting him over it either.

Which is more likely:

• rdriv picks a 0 cost role bc he thinks he'll get fear-daykilled D3, and this lets his teammates do more things, or
• rdriv rands confirmed vanilla

?

PLEASE PLEASE don't ask or damo will start computing useless odds for us.

Thanks Bunny

[bozotheclown]

Apparently I was not clear, I would like everyone to please answer this question:

What would you have chosen if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

Oh, I don't know the roles well enough. But I'd definitely take a new recruit. I'd consider going negative and gambling on surviving D1. I'd prioritize sneaky power roles like the double vote or was there one the GM mentioned that could vote after dead?! That'd be awesome. I agree I'd leave aggro roles for town to kill themselves.

You mentioned the 3 most expensive options. How far negative would you consider going, and how would you plan to get back positive?

[bozotheclown]

And I told you why I am not participating.

As a response to your reason for evading the question, I asked you what you would do if you were scum with HR, Maniac, and Macca.

Why did you pick those people?

Does that affect your answer?

[ghug]

Having just posted that asking damo to compute odds is useless, I still take umbrage with the misuse of "prior".

Knowing rdr is vanilla shouldn't change your balance between those two options. The balance of the two shouldn't change when you find out he is vanilla. The point of teacon's question is to remove the knowledge of what happened from your analysis.

I'm rejecting teacon's framing because the scum option is framed to account for the reduced set of options given that we now know his role, whereas the town option is not.

I'm saying that we should be considering the state of the world now in examining both possibilities, making rd's now known role a component of the prior distribution and treating the unknown as his alignment, because that's where we are.

Don't try to math me. I used to be smart.

It's soooo tempting. I used to teach math to arrogant math majors. The statement "what are the odds rdr would get vanilla??!" the answer is 100%...because it happened. But OK...let's move on.

Yes, that's precisely my point

[Jamiet99uk]

As a response to your reason for evading the question, I asked you what you would do if you were scum with HR, Maniac, and Macca.

Why did you pick those people?

Does that affect your answer?

I refer you to my previous question.

[kgray]

Apparently I was not clear, I would like everyone to please answer this question:

What would you have chosen if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

Depends on who my teammates were, like Jamie said. In general, I'd recruit someone for sure because I think the extra teammate is worth more than choosing roles, and I'd probably also avoid going into debt.

[bozotheclown]

Why did you pick those people?

Does that affect your answer?

I refer you to my previous question.

I meant does the reason I picked them affect your answer.

It was just random, to make the question meet your conditions for being able to answer the question.

[BunnyGo]

Apparently I was not clear, I would like everyone to please answer this question:

What would you have chosen if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

Oh, I don't know the roles well enough. But I'd definitely take a new recruit. I'd consider going negative and gambling on surviving D1. I'd prioritize sneaky power roles like the double vote or was there one the GM mentioned that could vote after dead?! That'd be awesome. I agree I'd leave aggro roles for town to kill themselves.

You mentioned the 3 most expensive options. How far negative would you consider going, and how would you plan to get back positive?

Oh. Well that makes sense. I’d still prioritize recruiting for safety in numbers. I’d still avoid the hotheaded violent roles. Just checked the costs, I’d be willing to go 1 night in the hole: so 13 (hold kill and bullet proof someone)

[bozotheclown]

Apparently I was not clear, I would like everyone to please answer this question:

What would you have chosen if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

Depends on who my teammates were, like Jamie said. In general, I'd recruit someone for sure because I think the extra teammate is worth more than choosing roles, and I'd probably also avoid going into debt.

What you would do if you were scum with HR, Maniac, and Macca?