MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[yavuzovic]

I wonder if, for his next programming project, Peter could develop an AI Mafia player? That is, an AI that would take the role of a player in the Mafia game, and make posts as a human player would. I wonder if it would be possible?

WTF! This is what I thought yesterday! Haha, this is exactly what I thought yesterday.

Doc on me tonight please.

Scum Balki need no doc save.
It is Teacher, Rdrivera or I that need that Doc save.

I don't need doc protection. I have never been nightkilled, nightkilling me is wasting a nightkill. I think I'm safe - at least I hope.

[yavuzovic]

Correction:
I was nightkilled when I caught BB. But it was a PR hunt and I don't claim I'm a PR this game.

[bo_sox48]

But it was a PR hunt and I don't claim I'm a PR this game.

[TrPrado]

Hey kittens, I've been following the thread pretty loosely, but have identified all but one of the the scum team within 90 percent certainty. I'll tell you who they are after I read Tom's message letting me know which side I'm on.

We’ve only seen one scum read for you, so should we take this as a joke?

[Foxcastle]

Hey kittens, I've been following the thread pretty loosely, but have identified all but one of the the scum team within 90 percent certainty. I'll tell you who they are after I read Tom's message letting me know which side I'm on.

We’ve only seen one scum read for you, so should we take this as a joke?

It turns out I rolled town, so I cruelly have to try now.

[Foxcastle]

Actually. I ACTUALLY have to try now, that is.

[ghug]

I like cruelly.

GBT shit is done. SHould I try to catch up or are y'all just gonna kill me in three hours?

Ezio's scum probably.

[Jamiet99uk]

Please do take part Ghug yes, that'd be good. What's your take on EoD?

[ghug]

Tbh I haven't read the hours leading up to it yet, so idk.

I didn't get any scum vibes from you, and I was getting town vibes from snowy with his posting around the deadline. From what I was there for, I think the votes from both of you make sense from a self-saving perspective, and that's the main thing that drove the actual lynch, so I'm not sold on it being scum-saving, though it was super weird, and the earlier votes still could have been.

[Jamiet99uk]

So you think it was Town Vs Town Vs Town?

[ghug]

That's a solid probably.

Reading the EoD, it just seems way too fucking lackluster for there to have been one or two scum on the block there. Reading you both independently, I see a lazy snowy, but one who is nonetheless paying attention to the game, which is not what I expect from snowy. You (Jamie) are harder to read because you're so bad at playing town, but I don't see anything particularly scummy there, and I feel like scum Jamie would have been more upset through EoD.

Having now read, I find Telamor's copscan thing and his sudden activity after the day ended super telling. I also think that's the kind of thing scum are more likely to notice in a teammate, so I'm happy to continue down the Ike tunnel.

Ezio's online all the damn time (at EoD, for instance) and yet not involving himself in anything. I actually like his insights when he does post, but I feel like he should care more, so that seems like a likely spot for scum as well.

I've gotta run, mother's day things. Maybe more before EoD.

[teacher2]

II’m happy to try to explain Bo, but I’m on mobile.

First, owing to the bot, I think you have the vote totals wrong. It was 6-4-1 when Balki moves. So three votes were needed (most of snorts votes indicated they were pretty locked)

Now as for why not to Jamie, I thought this through but can’t click though enough ISOs. Basically I don’t think they can get three more non-obvious votes. I remember thinking last night (when I drafted) that at least ghug and telamore had made a comment limiting their abilities to move there. There may have been others.

As for why not Telamor - it’s possible this is a teammate. He had also started participating more. I don’t think there is as good an argument (remember you need town to follow) to lynch telamor especially any argument independent of Jamie.

So this is the play that still makes sense for scum to me. And if snowy is scum, that answers your question about why Balki sticks his neck out.

As for your other questions, briefly, ghug waits because he scummed snowy at start of day and looks weird trying to save. I see some potential strange associations in me-RdR (not there from my side but I would think so outside me) and TrP-PL.

I haven’t done a close analysis since Before the weekend and can’t til tomorrow. We will see if I’m still alive.

[DrCJG]

I understand the criticism towards the stressedlines wagon (RIP)... but I was never convinced that snowy or Jamie were scum and stressedlines was someone I would have been willing to lynch due to the limited posts... therefore, I don't immediately jump to the conclusion that it was a move by scum to save one of their own.

Been busy with Mother's Day, but I hope we will start D3 with more discussion and avoid as much stagnation as we had in D2. I will try and review everything up till now (which I hope Bo and Fox will do as well) and have some questions ready tomorrow.

My feelings at the end of N1 didn't change much during D2, but I am going to put my summary in more of an ordered list with 1 being the most town.

1. RHK
2. Balki
3. Teacher2
4. Dargorygel
5. Peterlund
6. Ghug
7. TrPrado
8. Rdrivera
9. Telamor
10. Bo (Chaqa)
11. Fox (reedeer1)
12. Snowy
13. Jamiet
14. Thamrick
15. Ezio
16. Yav

+Ike
RIP Bozo, Xorexes, and Stressedlines

[Foxcastle]

I'm not convinced EOD2 was a charge to save scum-Snowy by lynching Stressed. I think it's equally plausible that enough people were unconvinced of Snowy's scuminess, confused by over-reliance on the peterbot, and saw the utility of clearing out some deadweight. Sorry, Stressedlines, but lurkers are shirkers and there's a good chance I would have gotten on that wagon. There also wasn't a lot of activity that scum could have used as cover for bringing up the Stressed wagon. It would also mean that Jamie is also scum, and it's not that I don't find that a possibility, but more that I find it unlikely that both Snowy and Jamie were scum. (Particularly since I find Peter scummy, and why try to push the second scum wagon over just pushing the first scum wagon for some town cred or jumping on the town wagon to save your scummate entirely?)

[Balki Bartokomous]

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[TrPrado]

The more I look back at EoD, I'm almost certain that we're not going to be looking at a lot of scum on the wagon in general, and very certain the switch was primarily a towny mess.

Telamor had a parked vote that he most certainly didn't expect would end up flipping someone. This one is iffy and harder to analyze, and he wasn't around for EOD.

Balki had the same reason for going for him, with the exception of absolutely expecting him to flip. I actually don't see Balki as scum here. I don't expect to see scum pull something quite this heavy-handed.

I'm not sure what to make of thamrick or ghug. They both seem to just be floating around and it feels very bizarre.

This leaves the two who were wagons. Perhaps part of the reason scum felt less able to deal with the turnout of the EOD was because too many on the team were gone? This would certainly implicate Telamor. The Jamie wagon wasn't particularly serious until the last 2 and a half hours of the phase and there were 6 people who had no posts in that window (7 if you want to include Stressed):

Telamor (last post 4:11 from EOD)
rdrivera (last post 5:23 from EOD)
dargorygel (last post 28:39 from EOD)
Ezio (last post 25:56 from EOD)
Chaqa (last post 28:25 from EOD)
reedeer (no posts)

I think if Jamie and/or snowy are scum, then that's a key pool to look at. I think either way we're looking at Telamor, and him being on a scum team with Jamie seems likely still. There are connections between the two I simply find myself unable to shake. Those two on top of one of the two of Chaqa/bo or reedeer/Foxy seem pretty key. Though, I don't think we have enough to pick between the two. There's a lot I don't like about yavuz, and he still fits with the scum team, and the way he seems to just be malleable feels like a lot of his opinions are fake, and his reasoning for refusing to join the Jamie wagon but also signalling support for it makes me uneasy.

For the fifth member of what I believe is the scum team, I don't think snowy quite fits anymore quite honestly. I'm not quite sure who that is yet, though, but I get they won't have been on the Stressed wagon besides Telamor and Jamie.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I read over the EOD2 again. I don't know...I would have like to post something awesome here telling you exactly who scum is, but I really don't know. In any event, tomorrow is Monday. Hopefully folks can put in some strong effort and we can have a more eventful day. I feel like we really need to pick off a bad guy soon to make better sense of the board.

If I had to lynch 5 people, in order, who would they be?

I guess, I'm operating under the assumption that RagingIke is scum. So, I'd lynch:

DrC, Telamor, Ezio, RagingIke...ghug?

I don't know. RagingIke is the only one I have any confidence in right now.

[Jamiet99uk]

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What is this crap, Balki? That's the second time you've posted something like this. Care to explain yourself?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Yeah, if I die tonight, it means (1) our doctor is a moron, and (2) ghug might just be on the scum team.

He hasn't been as suspicious of me in this game as he usually is. He's defended me a few times in a way that may be designed to curry favor. And he hasn't really driven the action.

He's tough to read, so I don't have great confidence here. I probably wouldn't lynch him tomorrow, but he's moving up my suspect list.

[Foxcastle]

I'd think that if Ike is town (which I doubt), the Scumteam would kill him tonight. If he's not scum, the risk that he's a PR is real, because why would a townie fakeclaim to save their life? They would have had to assume that he was saved last night, either being the doctor and self-visiting or being protected by the doctor, so switched the kill to Xorxes to sow confusion and limit useful information. I guess they could leave town-Ike alive in the hopes we'll lynch him, but that puts a lot of risk on them if he's actually a PR, which is likely if he's not scum, with limited likelihood of town lynching him if he continues to go un-cc'd.

EON Reads:

Balki Bartokomous—Lean town. Trying to solve, in contrast to his scumplay last time. Random voting was the kind of dumb idea that town puts out that scum wouldn't.

Bo_sox (nee Chaqa)—Null until further information.

Dargoryg​el—Lean town.

DemonRHK—I think this is my second game with Demon? I scumread him hard when he was town last game, and continue to find him scummy, so I'll lean town for how.

DrCJG—Lean scum, I guess. He seems new but also knows what he's doing, but he can't have been coached. I dunno. I wouldn't lynch him yet, but would like to see him under a little more pressure.

Ezio—Seems like town Ezio? Another hard read, but his low participation has been towny before.

Ghug—I started out leaning town. This ghug seems different from the scumplay I've seen from him before. His effort to lynch Ike seemed real enough (but could be bussing). But I don't know, I find ghug hard to read in general. He was another easy vote to lynch Stressed.
​
Jamiet99uk—I have a hard time reading Jamie in general and am not sure I've ever guessed him right the few times I've seen him flip in prior games. He had seemed town until EOD2, with his jump from Snowy to Stressed. It's possibly he forgot about Stressed's vote (at 2 hours out, he does count Stressed among the non-voters, so I assume he's just following the peterbot), but there were plenty of people pointing out Stressed's vote after it wasn't counted, and there were plenty of GM vote counts that included it. So I think Jamie could be town, but other signs point to scum.

Peterlund—Scum. He was bussing Ike, then voted for Bozo to save his scummate with 1 minute to go, then 15 minutes later is saying how suspicious the PR claim was. Also of interest, he says (p.30) " He did not even say "town PR", just "PR"." It seems to me that town don't think of the Mafia power roles as actual PRs... Is Peter scumslipping here because he's got to keep in mind who the Godfather and Hooker are? And I thought his Day 2 seemed scummy with a lot of explaining things and adding context and reactions and speculation without a lot of conclusion...

RagingIke297—Scum. Fake claim to save his hide EOD1. Trying too hard to not try hard enough.

Rdrivera2005—Lean town, but not really sure.

Foxcastle—Excellent use of em dashes. Even if Reedeer rolled scum, there's no way Foxcastle could be.

Snowy801—Snowy seems way off compared to other games. Maybe that's scummy, maybe not. His votes are a little scattered. He closer to the top of my lynchlist than the bottom, but there are still better candidates.

Teacher2—So. Much. Typing. I'm basically never in a position to win Most Posts and usually have to console myself with highest wordcount, but Teacher is going to win that this game. Point being: I think it's all too honest and too deep to be scum. I think scum want more flexibility than Teacher is giving himself.

Telamor—Scum. P. 49, "My main focus thus far has been on staying alive." That seems like a scumslip, and the rest of that post just reeks of "look at me not trying to lynch scum." He's defensive, and it seems possible that his scummates were poor coaches during in the Mafia QT during the night phase and that can only add to his frustration.

Thamrick—I normally scumread Tham, but he seems townie this game, so he's probably scum. Especially given his swoop in to land on Stressed last minute.
​
TrPrado—Lean town. Could be scum, but he's putting himself out there quite a bit.

Yavuzovic—This seems like town Yavuz.