That first thought of mine was going only on instinct. That is why I thought it was "Simple as hell!"
But then I was thinking, maybe this is exactly what scum had planned on how I and others would react with instinct and basic gut feelings, so I started to dig deeper...
I could not really figure out:
1. Why was Ike not NKed?
2. Why was Ike not RBed?
3. Why was Xorxes NKed?
4. Why Balki was RBed (or why was there no CC on Balki's RB claim)?
Many others, not just I, were also very surprised by Balki's un-CCed RB claim.
Something was not right with the initial theory. Something was very fishy. Was this a set-up planned by the scum team? So I figured out that we needed an better explanation for the EoN1 events.
So that is why I came up with my "option 5" that also happens to similar with Ike's scenario 9.
My "option 5":
"Actually thinking some more on this there may be an option 5 where scum for some reason thought that Xorxes was the cop, and therefore they RBed and NKed Xorxes, while they also could let scum Balki claim RBed first thing day 2. With option 5 IKE is looking bad and they expect IKE to be the D2 lynch. Is there any reason in Xorxes postings to suspect Xorxes being the cop?"
Amended "option 5" a few posting later with:
"And there is a good reason for scum not trying to NK you, as they would expect the Doc to save you this night. If they did not believe your PR claim (which is likely), there is no reason to RB you either."
Then I made my SOLO read on Xorx, and then I found 2 clues that could possibly support my theory. That made me change my mind. So now I think it would be better for town to ##VOTE Balki and see him flip.