MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[TrPrado]

Xorxes:

Why do you think Balki is scum?

[RagingIke297]

Sorry guys, I didn't have time to do a decent analisys or write a full readlist. Anyway, want to give some thoughts.

We have two possibilities:1) Ike is PR and EOD was town x town or 2)Ike is scum and was saved. I believe more on two, but we need to consider both until we sort Ike.

Option 2 have already been explored by Ghug and Than and I don't have much to add. In this case, Snowy and Xorxes are my strongest scumreads.

Option 1 make things harder to analyze, as scum could have spread between wagons or just sitted on the sidelines. In this case, I would give a closer look at Prado, Yav and Demon that were online and didn't make a stance on either Bozo or Ike

@Ike - You have a unique perspective as you know if you are town or not. Why you put Snowy as your top scumread? Why would scum Snowy push a town Bozo lynch if it's town x town?

See you next day or in God QT.

I'm not seeing where Snowy pushed Bozo, this is all he said about it when he voted:
hmm
hmm
decisions, decisions...
##vote bozo

[DemonRHK]

I haven’t been able to get nearly as much of a review of D1 as I wanted due to work and a race last night.

Snowy is still top of my scumreads. Reading snowy the last couple games he’s always passive, but normally he’s just there. This game he’s aggressively passive. His posting has consisted of “I’m not helping, because fuck you.”

On that note, yavu has done much of the same. He’s more than once said “I’m not going to read anything I missed.” How the shit are you going to develop reads if you don’t read?

Ike’s claim is suspect. It’s not so much the timing, just how it happened. EoN will provide more insight on that.

Telamor is non existent.

Stressed is playing scared. Moderately scummy, but so little added a good read is impossible.

Dr and teacher are both contributing, Dr is more calculated, teacher seems to be playing loose. Dr is pretty null so far, teach is pretty solidly town.

Chaqa is...Chaqa. Next to zero.

Jamie seems hella town. Without the yin to his yang in the game he’s been able to focus more on the game instead of personal insults and baked Italian foodstuffs.

Ghug is tunneled on Ike, and I think tunnel ghug is towny.

Xorx is iffy. His early day 1 was a bit scumbo, but his late day 1 was towny. I do have to grudgingly agree with ghug that xorx is very alignment indicative a couple days in.

I was on reedeer for his hedge, but he’s more null now after actually participating.

Ezio went with a lazy no lynch then ended alone on teach, slightly scummy, but mostly null.

Prado was catching a shitload of flak early that all vanished suddenly. I feel his alignment is inversely tied to xorx.

Balki has been lazy, and I don’t like the entire exchange I had with him early D1. Playing dumb and downright snobbish regarding a pretty common scum tactic...odd hill to die on.

Dargo is under my radar. He’s vocalized thoughts and opinions and at least attempted to work logic.

Peter caught a ton of shit for not knowing mafia jargon, which is bullshit as one one of the terms is used consistently here (NAI), as the others are common use for other forums/mediums of mafia play. Peter is null

rdr is coming off as town, even though he missed EoD. Willing to bet beaches were involved.

Tham is pretty average. Reads, questions, but did sit on Ike, though that’s not a mark either way yet.

[xorxes]

Xorxes:

Why do you think Balki is scum?

I can't say exactly, that's why I have him as scumish and not full scum yet. The way he somehow expected people to have solid reads that they could fully justify on D1 just didn't feel right. Maybe it's just his personality or a tactic, I don't know, but his interrogation methods make me think he wants to force people into corners by intimidation more than to get any information.

[ghug]

Xorx, you're not even going to entertain the possibility of Ike as scum?

[TrPrado]

Other reads of mine

Ghug, Balki, darg, and yavuz all seem pretty clearly towny
Rdrivera and DemonRHK are pretty towny but mostly just haven’t rung any bells
Snowy is frustrating but nothing particularly scummy
I’m not sure if I entirely believe Ike, but I don’t think he’s scum
Chaqa, Ezio, and Peter could do a bit more before I think I can be confident on them

Xorxes still kind of rubs me the wrong way but I’m not sure I can place it as easily.

[teacher2]

My proposal for D2 (before knowing any scans or flips!), is to lynch GHug/TrPrado (high info) or snowy (scummiest). But before I get to my reads (next post to avoid too long a wall), let me start with my inherent game assumptions about scum strategy, because they inform my reads.

• Mafia wants a mix of lurkers (to blend in/survive) and active misdirectors (to secure mislynches).
• Hooker will likely be a lurker, as it will scan guilty to a cop and doesn’t want that attention.
• Godfather will show the least active coordination or voting with scum-blocks, as it is the survivor role. It can also be an active misdirector, since attention/copscan is no threat, but that is not required.
• Mafia want both leading wagons to be on town end of day, so either one is a mislynch.

That last point is important to analyzing D1, and also questionable, given RagingIke’s exceptionally late PR claim. There are several reasons to doubt him – including multiple slots semi-crumbing in the joke stage. I’m not going to discuss those crumbs further to avoid helping Maf. They are informing my reads, and my personal reasons to continue trusting Ike.

One public reason I trust Ike is an assumption I make about wagon analysis. when 5 players know alignment, I find a PR claim from a leading wagon more likely than town somehow all found their way to the right slot. Indeed, I view both viable wagons at EoD as towny, and the wagons that started but didn’t take off as possible scum indicators (even if scum reads are on them; distancing is a thing) because scum want to encourage town wagons.

I will make very clear – I defended RagingIke D1 and this post (and my reads coming next) continue to do so. Thus, I could certainly be a scumteam with him. Indeed, town might well gain the most information from lynching me. I will not oppose this play as I think the info from my flip may help town long run. But I think its better to go after GHug/TrPrado (high info) or snowy (scummiest) for the reasons in my reads.

As a final point before getting to my reads post, I want to discuss what to do with Ike even if you don’t trust him. Here, I cant put it any better than Xorxes – he’s already 50/50 so lets hunt elsewhere:

If Ike is scum he's already caught. There's no need to lynch him immediately, just wait until the real PRs are out, which don't need to counterclaim him until they're ready to claim.

I'm working under the assumption that he'a a real PR for now. And no, we don't want details about which PR he might be, the Mafia do.

[teacher2]

Here’s the actual readslist – again, before knowing any scans or flips! I think the multiple scum are in (Balki, Ezio, GHug, PeterLund, Reeder, Snowy, and TrPrado). That’s my POE pool of actual players. Chaqa, Telamor, and Stressed can prove themselves today. I think GHug/TrPrado (high info, but more uncertainty) or snowy/PeterLund (scummiest) make the best lynches.

Keep in mind, however, that the odds of ALL of this being right is 0 (if I could go negative, I would). Its my one person’s reads for you to take and do with what you will.

One final note, as you can tell from the length and effort of the two posts, I had drafted and written the bulk of these before this afternoon’s readslists, including from Ike, which almost makes me want to change my preferred lynch just to get some distance…..

• Balki: Voting-wise, is the start of the RagingIke wagon, and stays there for the duration. The vote occurs on page 9 (i.e., after RagingIke has asked the questions that made people suspect him, but before the Thamrick bote) but without any hard explanation until 11 other than “hamster on a wheel.” Softens that explanation on 13. His compromise pool was (Ike (pr claim), Xorxes (townread), and Bozo (townflip)). Posting-wise, he scums Xorxes, towns RdRivera, and defends GHug twice from yavu and TrPrado from the wagon. Externally, he was towned by reeder, both scummed and later towned by Jamie, mixed by Xorxes and Thamrick(later softtown), soft-defended by Ghug on 8, 13, and 17, and soft-defended and later towned by RdRivera. Strongest assocations: Ghug (cross-defense, shared votes); RdRivera (same). Scumlean
• Chaqa: Lurker gets hard null and waiting for life.
• Dargorygel: Voting-wise, is the start of the Ezio wagon, and stays there until he becomes the fifth vote (tying Ike) on the Bozo waon. His compromise pool was (Bozo (townflip), Ike (PR claim), Snowy). Posting-wise, he provides a full reads list on the board that Im not going to repeat, but use when noting external comments to create my strongest associations. He also drives town out of RVS with good questions and comments, and townslips on Mafiachat. Externally, he was universally towned by Jamie, Xorxes, teacher, rdrivera, ghug, and thamrick. His strongest associations are: Xorxes, teacher, Jamie. Townlean
• Demon: Voting-wise, he starts the reeder wagon that never takes off, joins the bozo wagon in slot 3 but gets off as soon as snowy got on, and ends the day on snowy. He did not proffer a compromise pool. Posting-wise, he scums Reeder and Xorxes early, and snowy and yavu late, and towns RdRivera. Overall great tone and game advancing content. Externally, xorxes has a light town, Teache, Dargorygel, and RdRivera have a hard town. No real associations other than RdRivera. Strong Town snowy wagon is the towniest place to end the day.
• DrCJG: Voting-wise, he gets on the second TRPrado wagon in the 3 slot, and is the first to get on Bozo. He did not proffer a compromise pool. Posting-wise he is light, but comments indicate good and close following of the game, with some good questions. His reads list, however, is mostly null. Externally, he is towned by yav, thamrick, and jamie, but scummed by RdRivera for the null reads list. No associations at all. Townlean.
• Ezio: Voting its no-lynch and me. Posting its town xorxes, scum teacher and Ike. Externally, its all meta comments with a slight defense from Ghug as the wagon built, and pressure votes coming from teacher, bozo, dargorygel, and Jamie. Strongest association is teacher and Ghug. Null scumlean from meta and fact his wagon (which I town) could not take off.
• GHug: This one is going to be a bitch to research/write. Voting-wise its RVS TrP and Snowy, with a real vote on RagingIke joining the wagon in second place. Posting wise, he drives the Ike wagon constantly, but also tries to pick the counterwagon (Bozo(knowntown) or Me(you decide)). This is the scummiest thing, since I assume mafia wants to control both wagons, and GHug strongly defends against the PeterLund wagon. He follows TrPrado around like a lost puppy. He also defends Ike on page 8 before giving the scumread on 16. He does not want to lynch (towns?) Balki, Darg, Jamie, RdRivera (twice), teacher, TrPrado, xorxes and yav. He also defends Ezio, Xorxes, and Balki, and scums snowy and Bozo. Strongest association with TrPrado, RdRivera, and PeterLund. Im skipping the external because of his activity. scumlean with high information
• Jamiet99uk: Voting wise, he is all over the place. First RVS on TrPrado; joins GHug flash wagon in last slot; joins Ezuo wagon in last slot; joins PLund Wagon in first slot. Stays there until it falls apart, when he briefly moves to snowy EoD then Bozo after the claim. His last PoE (page 15) was PeterLund, Ezio, Xorxes, Yavu. Posting wise its high-volume, with towns on teacher, darygorgel, DrCJC, Balki, and GHug at end of day. Asks good questions of PeterLund, which PeterLund does not answer, then votes—this is why I understood it. Gave good answers to PeterLund and teacher. Externally, there are the meta comments, towns from Xorxes, teacher, darygorgel, and RdRivera, then he is hardtunnelled by TrPrado with a slight scum from PeterLund. Townlean driven by the snowy vote. I see that as the towniest place EoD.
• Peterlund: Voting-wise, he joins the 2nd TrPrado wagon in slot 2, briefly goes to Ike as the wagon builds, shifts to Jamie (OMGUS), goes back to Ike when necessary to build it over bozo, then shifts to bozo after the PR claim. His PoE on page 20 is (Xorxes, Ike, Jamie, Ezio). Posting wise, he focuses on meta. Externally, he is scummed by me, Jamie, rdrivera, and reedeer; towned by Dargorygel, and defended by TrPrado, GHug, and DrCJC. Strongest associations are TrPrado, GHug, and Jamie. Scumlean especially don’t like the move to Jamie while saying he would come back to Ike – seems to be trying to stay out of a mislynch wagon unless necessary. Switch to Bozo is NAI because scum would know it’s a town too, but still get town points.
• RagingIke: Not going to take the time for a 50/50 PR. GHug and me are his strongest associatives. I really question the Thamrick read, but everything else works for me. When 5 players know alignment, I find a PR claim from a leading wagon more likely than town somehow all found their way to the right slot. Indeed, I view the wagons that started but didn’t take off as possible scum indicators (even if scum reads are on them; distancing is a thing).
• RdRivera: Voting wise he is the first on Xorxes and then stays there until switching to the RagingIke wagon when PeterLund grabbed the lead. PoE on page 17 has Xorxes, Ike, Reedeer, PeterLund, DrCJC. Posting wise, he gives lots of reads and provides substance: Towns Balki, Yav, teacher, Demon, Dargo; scums Xorxes, Reedeer before the PoE pool. Oddly says he likes GHug’s logic but leaves him off the reads list. Externally, he is towned by Balki, teacher, Dargorygel (but later nulled), GHug, and Thamrick. This is the hardest slot for me, since I really like the reads and the analysis, but find the silence on GHug (when liking his logic) difficult as well as differences (not necessarily disagreements) on some of the other reads. I will leave it at a null and ask: If you thought GHug was the most logical, why didn’t you town him?
• Reedeer1: Voting wise he joins the PeterLund wagon in the third slot, switches briefly to Ike in 7th (putting in the lead) only to come off upon PR claim and end on Bozo. He did not offer a PoE Pool. Posting wise, its lurky meta until late D2 when he defends Xorxes, towns Balki and TrPrado, and scums PeterLund, Bozo, and snowy. Externally, he is scummed by RdRivera, Demon, and teacher; voted by snowy; and defended by TrPrado and GHug. Strongest association is TrPrado, followed distantly by GHug/teacher/RdRivera. scumlean
• Snowy801: Voting wise its Jamie RVS, joining the GHug wagon in fourth place, the reeder wagon in second (when others offered), and bozo in fourth to end the day. Posting wise, its superior silence through later afternoon D2, though he hardclaims VT. Externally, he gets scummed for this from Demon (slightly bizarrely, I don’t see the entrance as aggressive so much as empty), pressure voted from teacher, scummed from Ike, dargorygel, and reedeer, and Defended by Ghug. Strongest associations are Demon and GHug. Scum from vote timing and null posting – looking to join wagons that are taking off, and preserve flexibility for explaining later play.
• Stressedlines: Null. Post more.
• Teacher2: Dirtiest of bags.
• Telamor: Null, post more.
• Thamrick: Voting-wise, he is on Bozo from RVS, switches to Ike in 4th place for the lead, and stays there EoD. Last pool from page 20 had (bozo, ezio, telamore, Ike, Xorxes). Posting wise, he has now taken title for my favorite poster and lock-town; great questions and reasoning with close tracking of the game despite early low-post number. His end of day scum reads are above, his towns are teacher, dargorygel, balki, Demon, RdRivera, yav, ghug, and TrPrado. Externally, Ike scums him for what seems like BS reasons but it was early game, and there is very little activity around the slot other than scumming Ike for the read. strong Town.
• TrPrado: ran out of time on drafting. Short version is that I see Ghug, PeterLund, and reeder buddying as trying to direct the second wagon and/or supporting a leading wagon while staying off it. Best Godfather bet.
• Xorxes: no time; towny vibe
• Yavuzovic: No time; lack of involvement seems ?town?

BTW, I referred to myself as teacher for cntl-f purposes in future. Can people agree to call DemonRHK Demon rather than RHK for short, and Raging Ike as Ike, since standardization will help everyone do so? (Or can just pick one?) Im going to be low activity through Sunday because I have to make a mother’s day slideshow.

[xorxes]

Xorx, you're not even going to entertain the possibility of Ike as scum?

It's definitely a possibility, I'm not discounting it.

[ghug]

Alright, I'm not gonna risk dying before he answers.

Ike's truth will come out eventually. Seeing no reason to lynch him yet is entirely correct. However, that truth is a valuable source of information that we can't tap yet, so refusing to analyze based on the possibilities is very suspect. Everything we have to go on is based on Ike one way or the other. Ignoring him and looking elsewhere only benefits the mafia, especially since they know already, and have plenty of time to act towards him as they think town would until the rest of us find out. Xorxes should know this.


Now I see teacher's post. He should probably know this too. Advocating for a high info lynch is also stupid. The logical conclusion of that line of thought is lynching Ike, and we can all agree we're not doing that. Also, my name is ghug, not GHug.

[Tom Bombadil]

NIGHT HAS ENDED PLEASE HOLD

[Tom Bombadil]

Oddjob turned back and gathered his bearings. Elliot Carver was a prick, so he was not upset to see him in such a state. He left the room and headed downstairs. He knew Goldfinger went upstairs, but he imagined most of the party-goers did as well, and the Bonds would be behind. Maybe there was a way out from the basement.

The basement room was dimly lit, but he was able to find a chain coming down from the ceiling. He pulled and a light illuminated his surroundings. It was an unfinished area, with a large boiler, the cicuit panel and some laundry appliances.

"No way out here", he thought, "better check another room"

When he turned, a figure was standing there. It was Bond…

Oddjob rushed towards him, his dense frame plowing into Bond. Bond fell to his feet gasping for air. Suddenly Oddjob was falling backwards, his arms flailing, his vision now fixed on the wood rafters. Bond had quickly swung his leg and tripped him. Oddjob rose again, and now the two men circled one another waiting for an opening to strike. Oddjob smiled. He rushed Bond again, this time raising his knee in an attempt to connect with Bond’s torso. Bond dodged deftly to the left, and pinned Oddjob against the wall.

Oddjob was strong, but Bond had all the leverage. He slowly slid Oddjob to the right towards the circuit breaker. Oddjob struggled, but he couldn’t get free. Finally, as they neared the circuit breaker, Oddjob was able to pull his head free and he turned to face Bond. In that moment Bond pushed Oddjob’s head as hard as he could back into the circuit breaker, his razor sharp bowler hat slicing into the panel.

Oddjob’s world went black. It was over in an instant.

Bond looked at the charred, smoking body of Oddjob in front of him.
He smiled, “That was shocking. Though he always did sap the energy right out of the room.”

Somewhere Goldfinger rolled his eyes, knowingly.

(https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JDDjxa7RsKg)

Xorxes has died. He was Oddjob a VANILLA TOWN.
D2 HAS BEGUN. YOU MAY NOW POST

[teacher2]

fearkill.

One final psychobable point: I think at least one of TrP or ghug are mafia who had scum + town on their wagons. Statistics show people are unlikely to get back on a wagon they have left. So it makes good play to get a slight wagon on a teammate early for distance, and then move off it so it falls apart. I could see this with PeterLund too.

@ghug. Sorry for the caps. Im not urging you just for the info though mate. I find you driving two wagons epicly suspicious.

[DemonRHK]

RIP xorx

That’s an interesting choice. Xorx was somewhat contested in the reads of him as far as I could tell.

[ghug]

Poor xorxes.

I'll temper that last bit about teacher, as he's clearly tying his analysis to Ike being town in the same way I'm trying mine to Ike being scum.

Teacher, do you really think the early wagon on me means anything? It seems like jokepost-stage bullshit to me.

I always try to engineer EoD so I like all of the top wagons. It's stupid not to.

##VOTE snowy I guess

[Balki Bartokomous]

I was role blocked.

[ghug]

I was role blocked.

Wat

[DemonRHK]

I also want to not while Telamor hasn’t provided any info, any reads, they made sure not to miss EoN.

I find that scummy.

##Vote snowy

I will start here for today and see what develops.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Also, sorry guys, I've had a busy day today that is going to continue for quite a while. I'll try to spend some time here later tonight, but the next 26 hours or so are likely going to be light from me in terms of participation.

[DemonRHK]

I was role blocked.

Yeaaaaaaa I’m gonna take that with a grain of salt. I’d wager 60/40 toward the truth atm.