MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[goldfinger0303]

It is incorrect.

An astounding rebuttal. Tremendous. This completely reverses my read of you, Bozo. You are not a clown but a gentleman, a townsperson of the highest standing. That is clear to me now. With this succinct, concise, and entirely convincing argument you have eliminated yourself from suspicion. How could I have doubted you?

Goldfinger, look at this, please. Bozo has made your arguments against him look very foolish indeed. How exposed you must feel.

I demand that you apologise to Bozo at once, and with great sincerity. Truly, we are like ants next to this titan of a man.

I feel truly ashamed, and you should also.

What is this...feeling... overcoming me? Like a wave of guilt. I cannot stand in face of it. I must apologize for my inferior intellect in the face of such overwhelming evidence.

[BunnyGo]

Chucking a firework here...

Was Bunny reavered?

it's possible, but verifiable though since we can check whether anyone actually gets commuted n2.

True. But there’s always the decision: it’s 2 shot and not on consecutive nights.

[bozotheclown]

Why is that order better than fake companion first? If we're wrong about first companion, it is better now than after the replacement could have been reavered.

1) We get very little info from a companion CC lynch right now. We're going to do it eventually - it'll be more fruitful later on.
2) if we mislynch, we lost the rb action later on.
3) damo could theoretically scan one of the two of them.

Companion has a replacement who could be reavered if we wait to activate. That helps us to clear one of the VTs.

That might end up catching a Reaver, if no one claims Companion backup, we know one the VTs has been recruited.

[teacon7]

meh, I guess I see what you're saying. There's a good chance mafia 1 left their Agent in the VT pool, so there's unlikely to be any CC's to the backup doc/companion.

[BunnyGo]

We can't think of the D2 lynch only. How are you expecting to sort the VTs?

Three more nights of PR information may help, four more nights if we lynch the wrong Companion claimant.

D2: lynch worcej
D3: lynch fake Doctor
D4: lynch fake Companion, hopefully

That gives our PRs N2, N3, and N4 to hopefully learn something about the VT claimants and the new Reavers.

Yes. And if we coordinate to keep scanner safe...lots more intel.

[BunnyGo]

Chucking a firework here...

Was Bunny reavered?

You know, I had a feeling this was possible as well, and his refusal to commute makes me wonder.

Who is refusing? I’m refusing to comment on whether I commuted someone or not (and if I did...keep quiet you!) because then I cannot do it again tonight. The threat of it is big. And the knowledge of when I cannot is big too. Gorram it. Think people.

[xorxes]

D2: lynch worcej
D3: lynch fake Doctor
D4: lynch fake Companion, hopefully

That gives our PRs N2, N3, and N4 to hopefully learn something about the VT claimants and the new Reavers.

Why is that order better than fake companion first? If we're wrong about first companion, it is better now than after the replacement could have been reavered.

OK, we could go for the Companion first. While on that subject, what do you make of Kalel's crumbs? I think it disproves the idea that Kalel chose to CC Superstition because it was the most questionable claim.

I'm on phone now, will reread. I'm completely unfamiliar with the theme so I don't really know how convincing they are.

[goldfinger0303]

If its going to be between Kalel and Itshosuke, I'm going to ##VOTE KALEL

Crumbs can be faked, by planning ahead. And why would the scum team tell Superstitution to claim PR instead of VT? Doesn't make sense to me. Kalel conveniently not using their power overnight kinda cements everything in place for me.

[bozotheclown]

Why is that order better than fake companion first? If we're wrong about first companion, it is better now than after the replacement could have been reavered.

OK, we could go for the Companion first. While on that subject, what do you make of Kalel's crumbs? I think it disproves the idea that Kalel chose to CC Superstition because it was the most questionable claim.

I'm on phone now, will reread. I'm completely unfamiliar with the theme so I don't really know how convincing they are.

I had to look into it but I think they were definitely crumbs, fake or not.

[teacon7]

1) We get very little info from a companion CC lynch right now. We're going to do it eventually - it'll be more fruitful later on.
2) if we mislynch, we lost the rb action later on.
3) damo could theoretically scan one of the two of them.

1 why more fruitful?

2 no, because of replacemnt. We gain one more clear. We risk this not happening if reaver happens to convert the replacement tonight.

3 we don't know how long damo will live and how many scans he will be able to use. Scannng the VTs is more important.
[/quote]

1. Because they'll both post more (I hope), and that'll leave a bigger trail of information from either of them.
2. fair.
3. There's a decent chance mafia1 left their Godfather-Agent in the pool, so scans there seem less reliable. Scanning among the companion CC's gives us a clear and a confirmed scum.


##call GM - if a player with the Companion role gets converted to a reaver, they cease to be a Companion. Does the Backup Companion get activated when the Companion role ceases to be in play, or when the player who was the Companion dies?

[peterlund]

Mafia and Reavers need BH dead to win.

Sorry Xorx! This is simply NOT TRUE.

Both Maf1 and Maf2 have the same text in their win-con "... and the Neutral has not yet won."

[Chaqa]

1) We get very little info from a companion CC lynch right now. We're going to do it eventually - it'll be more fruitful later on.
2) if we mislynch, we lost the rb action later on.
3) damo could theoretically scan one of the two of them.

Companion has a replacement who could be reavered if we wait to activate. That helps us to clear one of the VTs.

That might end up catching a Reaver, if no one claims Companion backup, we know one the VTs has been recruited.

Now that you've pointed it out, a Reaver may do it.

Something a RP would say.

[Chaqa]

If its going to be between Kalel and Itshosuke, I'm going to ##VOTE KALEL

Crumbs can be faked, by planning ahead. And why would the scum team tell Superstitution to claim PR instead of VT? Doesn't make sense to me. Kalel conveniently not using their power overnight kinda cements everything in place for me.

The GM did also confirm they didn't send Hosuke his PM immediately, if that has any bearing on anything (not really, I guess).

[bozotheclown]

If its going to be between Kalel and Itshosuke, I'm going to ##VOTE KALEL

Crumbs can be faked, by planning ahead. And why would the scum team tell Superstitution to claim PR instead of VT? Doesn't make sense to me. Kalel conveniently not using their power overnight kinda cements everything in place for me.

In my opinion we should stick with worcej, I think it is about 50/50 he is mafia instead of BH.

[Chaqa]

@Confirmed PRs - what do you think of what I was saying earlier?

Do we prefer to maximize information, or minimize mislynches? The two have quite different, but both promising, paths forward. See below:

---------------------------
Minimize Mislynches
---------------------------
Step 1: Lynch worcej. We know, barring anything else, that he is not town. He claims BH, but could be RP or M1, so by lynching him, we wipe out an enemy, regardless, and one who if we decide to leave alive long-term could be a threat depending on night-kills. (Side note - did everyone forget he claimed to have an inno scan om Temasek? Is this just WIFOM?)

Step 2: Implement the xorxes plan. If xorxes still has his +C votes, this informs us that Jamiet is Doctor. If he does not, then we know Jamiet is either RP or scum. Regardless of which, it would be prudent to roleblock/commute him, then lynch him.

Step 3: Scan a VT, or a Companion CC. I think I would tend toward a VT here. The Companion CC is always a 50/50, whereas the VT pool is a 1/3 right now, so we can increase our odds by sorting one out.

Outlook:
Day 2: lynch worcej. Scan VT or Companion CC
Night 2: based on xorxes vote count, RB Jamie/Goldie. Commute damo (VERY IMPORTANT).
Day 3: lynch Jamiet or Goldie. If Damo get another scan.

---------------------------
Maximize Info:
---------------------------
Step 1: Lynch Hosuke or Kalel. There's good arguments to either one. Regardless, we have a 50/50 on killing scum, and if we miss, we activate the backup Companion and have a definite lynch the next day.

Step 2: Implement xorxes plan.

Step 3: Scan a VT. Same benefits as above.

Outlook:
Day 2: lynch Kalel/Hosuke. Scan VT.
Night 2: same as above
Day 3: same as above

[Chaqa]

With two mafia night-kills, I think at some point we're bound to catch a break and have one of the teams hit the other, but we still need to lynch potentially seven scum in order to win this. Given that, I don't think we can really afford to have a mislynch. For now, I'll plant my foot in the lynch worcej now camp.

The xorxes plan will give us the knowledge we need to make an informed decision about Goldie vs. Jamiet for Day 3's lynch.

That knowledge and damo's scan will let us make a good decision on the Day 4 lynch. If Bunny commutes Damo on Night 2, he is guaranteed safe from both roleblock and conversion, which means he can get a THIRD scan in Day 3.

[dargorygel]

Rethought.
Jamie would not reave xorxes. Xorxes always dies early.

We oughta vote to resolve companion.
I won't change yet though. Because there's a plan.
But I am less sure about the urgency of the plan.

I'd rather vote for kalel or hosuke.

[peterlund]

Chucking a firework here...

Was Bunny reavered?

it's possible, but verifiable though since we can check whether anyone actually gets commuted n2.

Please explain, how we can check if anyone gets commuted N2.

[Chaqa]

If we do lynch worcej, he is also eliminated as a RP suspect (either by revealing he was in fact RP, removing the question, or by his being dead). The xorxes vote test also can either clear Jamiet (if he is Doctor) or Goldie (if Jamiet is not Doctor).

We may also find out that someone was roleblocked at EoD.

Scanning in the Companion CC (specifically scanning Kalel) would also eliminate a RP suspect - though I think the above two options combined to enough pool thinning that we want to scan within the VT list so we can start working on some other lines of thought. That said... the Reavers seem like the biggest threat to us, so perhaps it's best to just double down on them.

[Chaqa]

Chucking a firework here...

Was Bunny reavered?

it's possible, but verifiable though since we can check whether anyone actually gets commuted n2.

Please explain, how we can check if anyone gets commuted N2.

People commuted are informed they are commuted.