MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

stupid phone, in my post those "out"s should be "our"

[BunnyGo]

And goddamn it Kalel. Come back here with that voice of god, that superman spreadsheet and talk to us! Don't just do a post to get you above modkill and disappear. You can help! You can try winning for once! Come on, don't let the Vixen (Kitsune) win again...

[Chaqa]

So his voting for you out of the gates today before ND had made his claim does not bother you at all?

I voted him mainly for his D1 behavior surrounding the Bob wagon.

Yes, with no consideration for his claim, which suggests you thought his claim was fake.

Me thinks he had some outside information to work with? Maybe this is a low-key scum slip?

[Chaqa]

@ND - I didn’t mean to say Hyde couldn’t kill untilN3. If you go back, I comment that I omitted an “again” accidentally.

As I said - lynch me. It’s honestly pro-town.

If you think we should still lynch you it makes me wonder why you retracted when you did. If you thought there was something to be learned from continuing your counterclaim, why not continue it all day for maximum affect, then when you flip town it would generate a lot of discussion.

I would like to see an answer to this as well.

As I wanted to explain my reasoning and potentially get us to lynch a scum today if we found anything super solid.

[BunnyGo]

Good night, I'll be on a little tomorrow...but work and busy pre-holiday means don't count on me to pay close attention or be on at EOD.

I'll try, but when I sign on be ready to shout a summary at me. Drunk Bunny (TM) signing off. Dumb Bunny will be back tomorrow.

[Chaqa]

ND's claim, Vecna didn't claim anything as far as I know.

You have a point on Mafia already knowing who were lying, at least 3 of them.

##unvote

I don't understand how Mafia already knowing who was lying makes the lying somehow more justifiable.

BASICALLY CHAQA IS SAYING THIS IS A REACTION TEST

Unrelated to this post - doing a catchup in Flavius mode is actually pretty fun.

@Flavius - yes, basically. I suppose if you don't explicitly say "reaction test" no one quite gets what you're up to.

[ND]

I mean that is something you all have to weigh if you think a day save outweighs the role removing a player every odd night so be it. I'll do the best I can to save people. But, 3 death's a night is going to stack up. That has to be mitigated somehow. The town can't sustain those losses for long before we become the minority (assuming the town takes the bulk of the deaths). It's certainly possible that Jack/Hyde kill within the mafia groups as well.

I think it's very risky to keep the role in play personally. If things go wrong (mislynches, Hyde/Jack/Mafia getting fortunate on their kills and hitting PRs and not each other, a whole bunch of factors) then town is going to run out of breathing room real quick. Then it's going to be too late. Better to remove it early and just take it out of the equation. That's my opinion on it. That was my assessment when I got the role and went through with my opening.

[BunnyGo]

Oh, one last thing:

Some scum leans of mine from day 1 that haven't been cleared up one way or the other (feel free to pick up my BunnyBaton (TM) and run with them)

1) PurpleCow -- I don't like him...I think he's scummy noob

2) FlavorFlav -- somethings up, but it is hard to post this much and hide. Still...take a look someone

3) Xorxes -- he's seeming better today, but yesterday was bad

[BunnyGo]

Oh, one last thing:

Some scum leans of mine from day 1 that haven't been cleared up one way or the other (feel free to pick up my BunnyBaton (TM) and run with them)

1) PurpleCow -- I don't like him...I think he's scummy noob

2) FlavorFlav -- somethings up, but it is hard to post this much and hide. Still...take a look someone

3) Xorxes -- he's seeming better today, but yesterday was bad

@Kalel what's your spreadsheet on these dudes or the ones I ISOd?

[Chaqa]

I don't necessarily see the Frostwind case but I also don't know him well enough to have a solid read either way.

If I had to list out my top 5 scum reads right now, they'd be roughly:
- Dargo
- EMC
- Vecna
- Rivera
- Cmdr

I'm pretty confident that Bunny, Flavius, xorx, Tom, bozo, Temasek, and damo are town. Plus ND of course.

[Jamiet99uk]

As the afternoon progressed toward early evening, a thick, familiar fog descended over London, rolling in from the estuary, enveloping Dagenham, Woolwich, and the Docklands, and settling murkily over the East End. In the taverns and coffee houses, the scandal involving the learned Doctor Jekyll kept tongues wagging.

<b>Vote Count 2.5</b>

Chaqa(8) - Vecna, Tom Bombadil, Kitsune, bozotheclown, xorxes, frostwind, CmdrLikely, ND.
Frostwind(5) - DemonRHK, damo666, dargorygel, rdrivera2005, ItsHosuke
bo_sox48(1) - FlaviusAetius
E.m.c^42(1) - BunnyGo

CHAQA is set to hang.

Unvoted: Chaqa, Purplecow, Temasek22, BionicMole

Just under 16 hours remain in this exciting Day 2.

Bo_Sox, emc, KalelChase, Chaqa, Purplecow, Temasek and BionicMole MUST VOTE before the phase ends or they will become lost in the fog.

[Jamiet99uk]

Tsk, stupid formatting.

[bozotheclown]

I mean that is something you all have to weigh if you think a day save outweighs the role removing a player every odd night so be it. I'll do the best I can to save people. But, 3 death's a night is going to stack up. That has to be mitigated somehow. The town can't sustain those losses for long before we become the minority (assuming the town takes the bulk of the deaths). It's certainly possible that Jack/Hyde kill within the mafia groups as well.

I think it's very risky to keep the role in play personally. If things go wrong (mislynches, Hyde/Jack/Mafia getting fortunate on their kills and hitting PRs and not each other, a whole bunch of factors) then town is going to run out of breathing room real quick. Then it's going to be too late. Better to remove it early and just take it out of the equation. That's my opinion on it. That was my assessment when I got the role and went through with my opening.

BunnyGo made some good points, and of course there is no way to know for sure which option will work out better. If we do not lynch you D3 and lynch another town instead, and Hyde kills a town N3, we would quickly see that we would have been better off lynching you. I thought lynching Jekyll D1 was a good option to prevent any Hyde NKs, but I have to admit you found a better way to utilize your role. On D3, I would say lynching you would be the less risky option, but I suggest we wait to see how N2 goes before deciding. If we end up getting a mafia confirmed by a town PR, I think it would be an easy decision to lynch a confirmed mafia over you.

[bozotheclown]

I put a little trap in my post by purposefully confusing who Tom had replaced. The fact Frost doesn't realize this indicates to me he isn/t paying super close attention to the game, which is actually a town tell to me.

Yeah, thought something was off lol. Since I'm moving out of my dormitory for Thanksgiving break and the general annoyingness of dynamic programming/heteronuclear molecular orbitals/integrals/number theory congruences they're all messing with my brain, probably why I missed it. tbh in other games of mafia generally my town playstyle is a lot quieter than my mafia one, since in general people think of mafia as trying to stay in the shadows and town as trying to confirm themselves.

Still a little confused about the votes for Chaqa. He's all but confirmed. Very confused as to whether ND is trying to get himself killed, I don't like his playstyle.

##VOTE ND

Based on your subsequent posts, can I assume you are saying you had not realized ND had counterclaimed Jekyll when you posted this vote?

[Vecna]

I had no impressions?

I mean, I read the role before I read the game, so I wasn’t exactly focusing on what vapor said since I already knew my role. One less person to deduce.

This is what I mean, your literally an empty suit, you have nothing, your not committing to anything, do you see why it looks so slippery??

Get off his nuts man. What do you expect him to say about this? Do you want him to tell you what it is ffs? Why aren't you asking everyone else what their reactions are when they read their roll? Climb out of the rabbit hole

What are you trying to say here Bionic? Do you have an extremely strong townread on the Tom/Vapour slot? Why try and stop the grilling?

[Vecna]

My case against lynching Jekyll:

I know that most players here (and even Jekyll himself) are planning on voting to lynch him tomorrow, but I'd like to take advantage of my Drunk Bunny (TM) state to explain as best I can why I think this is a mistake. Before I do, let me clearly articulate what I see as the plusses and minuses of having ND around as Jekyll:

Pluses:

1) Jekyll is a townclear
2) Jekyll has a heal that cannot be role blocked
3) ND is a good player
4) Jekyll is immune to Jack (less important now that Jack won't target him)


Minuses:

A) Hyde is trying to make sure Town loses
B) Hyde kills an extra player every other night (and Jekyll isn't likely to be RB again)
C) ND is even more annoying than I am


So, with that all spelled out clearly, why do I value not lynching ND? Mostly, the townclear value. But I think in this game we've been *very* lucky so far to not have any night kills succeed. We should start seeing up to 4 (FOUR!) deaths a day. That's just 2-3 more days before we are in late endgame situation. That's only 1 more Hyde kill in that time, vs all the good a smart doctor townclear can buy us.

In addition, with only a few days left to the game, can we really afford to waste a lynch ON A TOWNCLEAR?! I know we're going to have mislynches. We probably will have one today, but can we afford another tomorrow? I don't think so.

Meanwhile, I think it's not so clear that Jekyll isn't a net town asset, and the scum should waste their NK getting rid of a townclear and town asset. We should not make it easy for them. We should preserve our (VERY) limited number of lynches (count guys...we either need lots of scum help or to get 6 more lynches CORRECT) and target them accurately.

I think there are also many situations where we get down to just a few players left. Having a doctor towncleared among them is WORTH the insane NK.


In summary, I will *not* be voting to lynch ND tomorrow. I hope none of you do either.

I actually agree with this. Also, its 3 kills per night, but that is probably gonna be offset by 2 doc saves and a commuter, who will start being exponentially more effective over time, especially if scum also choose not to kill J&H.

[Vecna]

Besides, its not like J&H and Jack know who the mafia are, so theyre gonna have a 50/50 of helping us out in that department.

[Vecna]

I had no impressions?

I mean, I read the role before I read the game, so I wasn’t exactly focusing on what vapor said since I already knew my role. One less person to deduce.

So he's a PR

Reading stuff too literally there buddy

[Vecna]

OK, I know I said I'd start my ISOs with *my* strongest scum read, but I really really hate the frost wagon. I'm gonna start with that ISO and see if I can either convince myself to join, or convince everyone else to jump.

I feel with this ISO the timing of a few posts is important.

He had this really weird long mechanical/analysis post right when the bob wagon was reaching critical mass. Seemed like a teammate wouldnt do that at such a time, so unlikely to be team moriarty.

Afterwards his voting was pretty erratic and weird, but I still dont really understand why people are scumreading the slot so hard. Scumreading it for ties to Bob seems like a mistake to me.

[Vecna]

By the way @Cuno:

Did you see anything last night?

Cuno has left the building. Take that as you will