MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[Kitsune]

That gambler hardclaim was going to be my one "good" play all game and now you all want to lynch me for it? #@%$, maybe I should have tried a different "good" play.

Man, I hate it when people come and jump on me for backtracking and stuff. Look, you're not going to get a straight answer out of me, because I want to leave nuances in there. I don't want to tunnel because if I'm wrong you'll all lynch me anyways and I likely will be (and even if I'm right you'd probably lynch me for being off-meta). I'm sorry that you all don't like my playstyle, but if that's why you want to lynch me, go ahead. I see I'm not contributing anything anyway, even when I try.

You know?

You're right, and by looking at the lead wagons exclusively due to limited time I'm actually sheeping when I just told myself I wouldn't do that.

I hope it's a clever play, and I like your reaction to pressure here.

I'll go with my existing independent scum read as is almost traditional for me D1.

##vote bozotheclown

[e.m.c^42]

let's see if I have enough time to throw out all thoughts in replies before eod

[xorxes]

Alright, back onto the beaten path...

tl;dr: Analysis of teams on three factors: identifiability, win efficiency, and special abilities (best to worst).

ID: JACK, MORIARTY, BURKE
WE: MORIARTY, BURKE, JACK
SPEC: BURKE, MORIARTY, JACK

OVERALL DANGER (MY OWN GUESS):
MORIARTY > BURKE > JACK IN CASE OF NO NOTEBOOK FOUND BY BURKE

JEKYLL PROBS LEGIT AND WORTH HAVING ALIVE. EARLY FEMALE CLAIM AGAINST JACK VIABLE OR NOT? DISCUSS.

Question about this though: “This is my first game so I'm still developing a strategy. I can't give a good scumread right off the bat so…”

I meant that I needed to do an analysis of the playing field, as obviously this multi-factioned mafia is something I'm new to. I begin my analysis of the scum factions on three different aspects: identifiability, win efficiency, and specials [measuring the strength of their special abilities].

OFF TO THE EASIEST IDENTIFIABILITY:

1. I believe that JACK will be the least identifiable of the three factions. The larger a faction is, the easier I feel it to be able to identify them, if not through their talk, through their votes. Jack has the economy of a small team (himself), and is probably just as likely to look aligned to town as a mafia faction.
2. Second on the list I find MORIARTY's team to be less identifiable. I believe the information edge that this team has through the evil genius will help the team better conceal themselves. Even if the Grave Robber finds a full investigator's notebook it will only be equal to the information Team 1 can gain.
3. Finally, BURKE's team, mainly because as I stated before their information edge will be less, plus with a roleblocker more of the team will be visiting at night, leading to easier means of detection (in case one person goes to the wrong place, etc)

SECOND, WIN EFFICIENCY*
(The vaguest of my measures, I can't precisely define it as of yet)

1. I think that MORIARTY's team has the edge on this one, since I feel that the information advantage they gain will be essential in dispatching their enemies. This will allow them to kill the right people, and combined with their unstoppable-kill ability, even deal with protected targets.
2. Second on the list would be BURKE'S team, mainly because extra people would add in redundancy compared to the Ripper's one-man-army. The roleblocker could come in very handy in blocking roles that are found by the grave-robber if they hit the investigator.
3. Finally I have JACK, as he only has nine targets to potentially kill, which could easily be taken out by other teams (on average, 3 kills a night would mean a woman dead per night, meaning Jack has to be very lucky to get all his female kills in. He also is the least redundant: he has to stay alive the whole game without people hanging him in the day.

THIRD, SPECIALS

1. OK, here BURKE comes in at the top for me. An extra knife to guarantee protection at night is great, but even greater is the potential to find an investigator's notebook. That would be a gold mine of data for them to exploit. While Moriarty's team can only deal with their information by killing, the roleblocker offers an excellent opportunity for BURKE. Especially since the roleblocker's abilities on their own is already a good addition.
2. Next, I'd count MORIARTY's team to have quite a good lineup. They have an information advantage rivaling the towns, and the unstoppable kill would come in very handy in eliminating worrisome targets. However, since the unstoppable kill is one-use and there isn't other options besides killing for the team, I put them in second.
3. The only thing going for JACK is his night immunity. Dead last.

Overall, I find that JACK is limited by his poor win efficiency and special ability. Between the other two factions, I'm pretty torn. I'd say if Burke gets the investigator's notebook, they're definitely stronger, but failing that I'd definitely prefer MORIARTY.

One other thing: what would you think of getting a townie to claim female (to go anti-Jack?) I think it's probably a dumb idea, but I'm new to this. I think Jekyll claim by Chaqa is legit. Besides that, I'd think the benefits of having a confirmed town still alive outweigh the dangers of Hyde.

Advice: save this kind of analysis as filler for night phases. It does nothing to help us find scum.

Nobody should be claiming their gender.

[Chaqa]

The absolute quiet of this EoD should make it clear neither of these wagons are likely to be scum.

[Chaqa]

@xorx - what do you think about Dargo, or no-lynch, over voting Bob or CG?

[Kitsune]

@Xorxes

On the contrary, we're all guys here, right?

Right?

Especially the girls.

[damo666]

Some people have a weird sense of humor. But we really should be asking him rather than speculate about it: @Bob, what was the point of your claim, and what do you make of people's reaction to it?

Yeah, it was going to come to this eventually. I claimed for a few reasons:
a) A bit of a joke
b) As a possible way to draw Jack's NK
c) I wanted to start forging out a playstyle for myself so I wasn't just "that noob over there" and
d) Yes, a bit of a reaction test

Mostly c) and d) though

I wanted to see if anybody jumped on it despite me stating that it was a joke, and if so, in what way, whether it indicated scum or ripper (or just plain town).

Damo kind of just responded to it at first, not particularly interestingly, probably just fishing for a response. I considered it, but needed to give it a while longer to sit before mentioning it again. His conclusion later was odd given my insistence it was a joke, but not entirely wrong.

Then he went and ruined it by calling me out for trying to draw an NK, but that wasn't my main purpose anyway, and I still feel like he's pretty towny.

With your response to damo's response, I'm also getting some town vibes, although I think you are misunderstanding him a bit. Then again, damo talking about it as though I was very likely town, just because of a supposed weak NK draw that I did is odd. Question: is damo normally like this? I have very little meta to go on.

So unfortuantely I feel like it was somewhat wasted, as I didn't get anyone trying to kill me for it, but town townreads is okay I think.

Also getting significant scum vibes from Vapor, he almost seems like he's trying to be clueless. Either that or he's just extremely clueless, and I don't think that's the case.

See emboldened sentence. I suggested three attributes:

i) Vanilla
ii) Town
iii) Male

Bob's statement (if true) would suggest ay least one attribute is correct AND at least one is wrong. The only disaster would be town PR. If this were the case then he can claim. The second worst would be female vt which wouldn't be the worst result in the world so

##vote Bob

[purplecow]

Chaqa, can you give us a summary about why we should vote dargo?

[e.m.c^42]

actually, nope, 10 pages of replies will fail lmao

I don't like rivera so far this game, from iso. He's usually pretty clear compared to other players as scum/town from first day, and I'm not quite getting vibes either way, but leaning towards scummy from gut feel and meta for now.

If you look at his posts, 1) it's rather low in number (trend for him when scum, iirc), albeit with a vague excuse (town point, his excuses are more detailed when scum), and 2) content of posts. He's not had much in opinions except for recent two posts, which also feels strange. Idk, we don't have wagon on him today anyways, but putting opinion out for record

[xorxes]

@xorx - what do you think about Dargo, or no-lynch, over voting Bob or CG?

I'm completely against no-lynch. It throws away lots of information for no good reason.

I'll reread dargo, I didn't get any strong vibes from him either way.

I don't know Bob well enough to know what to expect. His explanation for the claim he started with didn't add up for me. The claim itself did not bother me, his explanation did.

[damo666]

@Bob @ Comp

SPEAK

[xorxes]

@Xorxes

On the contrary, we're all guys here, right?

Right?

Especially the girls.

[damo666]

@emc VOTE!!!!

[Chaqa]

Chaqa, can you give us a summary about why we should vote dargo?

It's hard to explain, but it mainly comes down to:
1. His posts seeming very forced to me
2. A focus on mechanics I don't recall Dargo having before

That said, his scum meta last time was to be more lurky, so I'm not 100% sure, but honestly I just don't like the Bob wagon at all. I'm open to other options if someone can present a compelling case.

[e.m.c^42]

I still think voting for comp is a bad idea. Bozo, xorx, why. Y'all know better, that was a terrible reasoning, especially from players that usually hold VCA as relatively important, unlike me. Instead of having a single player without record, you end up with everyone on that wagon with essentially...somewhat useless votes, and an excuse to stop further reasoning for the day.

[FlaviusAetius]

Some people have a weird sense of humor. But we really should be asking him rather than speculate about it: @Bob, what was the point of your claim, and what do you make of people's reaction to it?

Yeah, it was going to come to this eventually. I claimed for a few reasons:
a) A bit of a joke
b) As a possible way to draw Jack's NK
c) I wanted to start forging out a playstyle for myself so I wasn't just "that noob over there" and
d) Yes, a bit of a reaction test

Mostly c) and d) though

This all sounds like rationalization to me, considering the reasons contradict one another. A bit of a joke + a bit of trying to draw Jack's NK + a bit of reaction test adds up to zero because they cancel each other out.

I think it was a bit ridiculous too, but definetly not enough to lynch for, this wagon seems weak, and people who are scumreading him didnt even use this as evidence, which makes me think this is a mafia pushed wagon

[FlaviusAetius]

Chaqa, can you give us a summary about why we should vote dargo?

It's hard to explain, but it mainly comes down to:
1. His posts seeming very forced to me
2. A focus on mechanics I don't recall Dargo having before

That said, his scum meta last time was to be more lurky, so I'm not 100% sure, but honestly I just don't like the Bob wagon at all. I'm open to other options if someone can present a compelling case.

emc!

[Chaqa]

Yeah, it was going to come to this eventually. I claimed for a few reasons:
a) A bit of a joke
b) As a possible way to draw Jack's NK
c) I wanted to start forging out a playstyle for myself so I wasn't just "that noob over there" and
d) Yes, a bit of a reaction test

Mostly c) and d) though

This all sounds like rationalization to me, considering the reasons contradict one another. A bit of a joke + a bit of trying to draw Jack's NK + a bit of reaction test adds up to zero because they cancel each other out.

I think it was a bit ridiculous too, but definetly not enough to lynch for, this wagon seems weak, and people who are scumreading him didnt even use this as evidence, which makes me think this is a mafia pushed wagon

I agree it's a mafia-led wagon. Who have the main pushers been?

Vapor, Dargo, are the two main culprits.

Bob is voting Vapor. I'll join him to protect him.

##Vote Vaporwave

[e.m.c^42]

@emc VOTE!!!!

Almost, gotta catch up a bit more :D

also I need to find new wagon to either join or start, current one is acceptable, but seems ehh

[FlaviusAetius]

Mafia can kill Jekyll. I'm not sure what the exact scenario you're positing is.

Jekyll + VT + Mafia

Mafia kills Jekyll. Hyde kills VT. Mafia+Hyde win.

If Jeckyll is killed is Hyde not dead too?

Yes, but Hyde can win even when dead.

then just kill him off and worry about other people at this point, he's hostile to us, end of story