Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

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JamesYanik
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Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#1 Post by JamesYanik » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:46 am

So, I've always sort of assumed Assad was behind these attacks. Most of the international community said it was so, and there seemed to be a bit of evidence to support that.

Now, before I go further, I want to make one thing VERY clear. I am lost. I have no idea what the hell is going on, and I'd really like some PRIMARY SOURCES, direct evidence, linking Assad to these attacks.

Because frankly... this story keeps getting weirder and weirder.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s- ... attis-says
http://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-admi ... ple-801542
http://www.newsweek.com/wheres-evidence ... ple-810123

Say what you will about PBS and Newsweek... "right wing" aren't the adjectives to describe them.

And if Mattis is saying there are few actual links... why is everyone else so certain???

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/30/159 ... tack-syria

Here is the headline:

"Assad still denies using chemical weapons. Here’s more proof he does."


OK... so we need evidence. what does the article provide? nothing.

the frist 3 paragraphs blame Assad based off an OPCW report, which in the 4th paragraph they admit never actually specifically references Assad, but because America/France/Britain say it's so... it's so???

And the links there are flimsy... there is a quote of a frenchman saying that the signature of the chemical attacks is the same that Assad has used before... but there's no references, no sourcing, no documents NOTHING.

I AM LOSING MY MIND

and yes, Assad says stuff like did the children really even die? but this seems more like someone who is paranoid that someone is out to get him, than a killer trying to deflect suspicion to another group that has chemical weapons.

And the quality of the sarin gas is more well discussed in the newsweek articles, and how it very well could be another faction.

and the timing? it seems to fit exactly in places to keep the USA in and around Syria.



I don't want to be a conspiracy nut though... is there some evidence people can link me? Firsthand, Primary sources, with direct connections between Assad Regime--> Chemical weapons?

and I'm not talking about form 5 years ago, I mean after the supposed turnover and whatnot.

And if Mattis isn't putting a firm connection out there... should I be believing it? surely these people need aid... but military presence?
as I said before: I'm losing my mind. any help would be appreciated
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#2 Post by JamesYanik » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:50 am

and I know that RT news has been running with this, and they are usually full of horseshit, but does that mean I can't still have evidence behind a claim? there was evidence of long-range nukes in Iraq, so we thought.

I just want some facts PLEASE

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#3 Post by Octavious » Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:13 am

JamesYanik wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:50 am
and I know that RT news has been running with this, and they are usually full of horseshit, but does that mean I can't still have evidence behind a claim? there was evidence of long-range nukes in Iraq, so we thought.

I just want some facts PLEASE
No one ever thought Iraq had long range nukes, nor did anyone even suggest it as a possibility.
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#4 Post by Octavious » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:09 am

A solid fact is that Syria certainly had chemical and biological weapons stockpiles. They confirmed this themselves. It also seems pretty certain that chemical weapons have been used in Syria. Who used them is less obvious.

The problem is quite simple. It's damned hard to get solid evidence from a hostile country in the middle of a war. Before WWII ended and we got allied soldiers into concentration camps you'd have struggled to have made a cast iron case that the holocaust was going on. Likewise we didn't know how advanced or not Hitler's nuclear weapons program was. It's further complicated by intelligence agencies that can provide evidence to governments that can't be shared with the people as it could put agent's lives at risk.

So you have to consider how much you trust the people telling you what's going on, and weigh up the various means, motives and opportunities.

It is worth keeping in mind that the Syrian government is a vile dictatorship that, chemical and biological weapons aside, have been particularly brutal against civilian targets thus far. Russia is a democracy only in name, has recently invaded Ukraine, and has a habit of arresting people who speak against the government. Our governments aren't perfect, and have recently earned a reputation for grossly exaggerating evidence in similar circumstances, but in terms of reliability are still on considerably firmer ground than Russian and Syria.

So, let's look at the possible suspects

The Syrian Government

Means and opportunity: Yes. The had the weapons and delivery systems

Motive: Yes. They want not only to win the civil war and punish the rebel populations, but also to make sure they know exactly how terrifying a future rebellion will be so that no one will try it again.

The Russians

Means and opportunity: Yup.

Motive: A further test of western resolve. If the West won't make a stand for its principles, it is unlikely they will do anything other than protest if Russia expands its influence back into former Soviet nations.

Syrian Rebels

Means and opportunity: It's possible that they captured weapons stockpiles.

Motive: At one stage to get more western involvement, but now the war is all but lost this seems less convincing.

The USA & allies

Means and opportunity: Difficult without leaving obvious evidence it was them.

Motive: Not immediately obvious. The war is lost for pro western forces and Syria is looking like a mess that everyone would prefer to avoid as much as possible. Possible domestic distraction, although there seem countless easier ways of doing that.

Loki

Means and opportunity: Godlike powers

Motive: To sow mischief in the world of men


After some consideration the balance of probability suggests it's either the Syrian Government, possibly with Russian backing, or Loki.
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#5 Post by CroakandDagger » Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:29 pm

Western nations have been lying about Syria and Russia for years. The three-letter agencies and military-industrial complex of the west in general and the US in particular seem to be eager to find a justification to get involved and usher in regime change as they have done in many other nations.

These regime changes have not ended well for the other nations subject to Western interventions, and I see no reason why this interventionism would bode any better for Syria.

Russia - for all people will talk about Putin's tyranny - has been a reliable ally to Syria for the length of this conflict and has acceded to every reasonable request that the West has made in order to avoid conflict, even taking measures to mitigate civilian casualties.

Assad - for all the media will speak of Assad's bloodthirsty nature - has been a very calm and moderating voice in this conflict, and has been fighting against western-backed terrorists for years with the support of the vast majority of the people of Syria.

If you are looking for primary sources with perspective on Syria, I recommend listening to a press conference with Canadian journalist Eva Bartlett who has been to the conflict zone many times. It's quite old now - a couple of years - but provides interesting perspective on what has been going on.

She starts speaking at ~14:00 and has a lot of fascinating things to say.

http://webtv.un.org/media/watch/permane ... #full-text
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#6 Post by Ogion » Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:41 pm

Of course, only one entity has helicopters, and teh fact that helicopters were used in the chlorine barrel bomb attacks for years is pretty damned conclusive. The fact that Assad has repeatedly used nerve agents on civilians in the past is also conclusive, frankly, to anyone with a brain.

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#7 Post by Ogion » Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:55 pm

Also, you forgot to mention that helicopters from a Syrian government base were used in this attack as well, unless you believe that the rebels had chemical weapons and were just waiting for a bunch of helicopters to fly over before using them on civilians, as opposed to using them on the Syrian army.

Anyone suggesting the Assad regime doesn't attack civilians doesn't know their history, clearly. Google Hama and for that matter Halabja

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#8 Post by CroakandDagger » Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:59 pm

Yes, Ogion, bombing terrorist bases will result in civilian casualties when western-backed terrorist groups actively prevent civilians from leaving embattled areas and lock them up in their compounds in order to use them as human shields.
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#9 Post by JamesYanik » Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:35 pm

@Octavius

the quip about long range nukes in Iraq was meant to be a joke, but it was poorly written, I shouldn't post that early in the morning.

@Ogion

the rebels couldn't get their hands on helicopters? and also can you provide me a link to the helicopter part of this - I legitimately can't find it and want to see

as for motive, look at it this way.

Trump says he's pulling out, the rebels will be crushed by russians/assad if they don't get support, so if you chemical attack Assad, you look really bad, if you chemical attack civilians and blame it on Assad, you get support.

now it's also possible that Assad wants to look strong to his friends in Iran/Russia, and is flexing his muscles with these attacks, thinking the USA will back down and not get involved much more.

I've seen enough evil form regimes as well as militant guerrilla sects to see each as a possibility.


I just would REALLY like some solid evidence to be presented, for each individual case that arises. I don't think that's too much to ask when we're considering military action, in an already unstable region.

as for this time... in August of 2013 when Damascus got his by rockets with sarin gas, that capability points to only really Assad, but I just would like to stay informed here.

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#10 Post by JamesYanik » Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:38 pm

FOR EXAMPLE

there's only been 1 other link (beyond the OP) posted in this thread so far, but the argument has already begun


WHY ARE WE ARGUING WITHOUT SOURCES?

beyond all else THIS is what I want to avoid.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... -tTyfrHEds

for earlier comment

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#11 Post by CroakandDagger » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:35 pm

C'mon, you can't ask for people to back up their perspectives with evidence.

What are you, a nazi?
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#12 Post by President Eden » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:11 pm

Ogion says it's clear that Assad's regime did it. What greater evidence that Assad's regime didn't do it do you need, Yanik?
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#13 Post by Octavious » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:22 pm

JamesYanik wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:35 pm
I just would REALLY like some solid evidence to be presented, for each individual case that arises. I don't think that's too much to ask when we're considering military action, in an already unstable region.
Would you like it delivered by unicorn as well? Get a grip on reality, mate. It's a war zone controlled by a nasty bunch of extremely hostile operators. If you're expecting Columbo to gather all the suspects in the lobby of the UN and talk you through his findings until Assad confesses you're going to be bitterly disappointed. Even in ideal conditions, when detectives are given free access to suspects and the crime scene, backed up by modern investigative techniques, and presented in front of a jury told to only find guilt if it's beyond reasonable doubt, you still don't always get the right answer.

By demanding solid uncontestable evidence you are simply giving yourself an excuse to never take any action. It is little more than a shield to defend your conscience and seat on the moral high ground whilst awkward things like mass murder and genocide take place. The question becomes can you look the survivors in the eye and tell them we knew that you were dying, and we knew Assad was a bastard, and we were pretty confident it was him doing it like you were saying... but as we couldn't be 100% certain we thought we'd err on the side of caution and let it carry on. But on the brighter side we've had a bit of a whip round and got you each a new tent and some tins of beans because we really care, you know?

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#14 Post by leon1122 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:19 am

Wow, look at these people posturing as fiscal conservatives yet perfectly happy to spend our money to go on yet another geopolitical, neoglobalist war. You don't care about Syrian lives, so stop pretending like you do. If you cared about Syrians at all, you would have been pushing for this war to end long ago. The pittance of people who died in this supposed chemical attack is nothing compared to the hundreds of thousands already killed. You just want to use this chemical attack as an excuse to go to war to fulfill your bloodlust and hatred for brown children. The attack that you know full well was carried out by deep state actors is nothing more than, as you say, "a shield to defend your conscience and seat on the moral high ground".

As to the actual chemical attack, we all know that Assad did not carry it out. Assad is a rational person just like every other world leader. Just like any other world leader, he wants nothing more than to bring stability back to his country (tangentially, that is also the wish of the vast majority of the Syrian people; no one wants to live in a warzone); after all, his life depends on it. Now then, can someone please explain to me why a rational person would launch a chemical attack on his own people when he is so close to winning the war (and that particular battle as well) and just days after President Trump announces he will pull out of Syria? It only serves as an excuse for the US to stay longer and benefits only the warhawks of the military-industrial complex. Wake up, people, and always remember to question: who benefits? Not Assad, not Russia, not Syrians, and certainly not we the people.
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#15 Post by Ogion » Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:08 am

You aren't fooling anyone, leon. It's pretty simple. A lot of us pushed for the war to be ended from the get go by deposing Assad years ago. And what a good call that was, in retrospect. As for being fiscally liberal (e.g., responsible), it's pretty simple. Rescind the Bush and Trump tax cuts to pay for the wars. If Americans want war, then taxes can be raised to pay for them.

James, probably the best summary is from bellingcat.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/20 ... pril-2018/

And no, the rebels have not been able to use helicopters, because the Syrian army has air cover from their own airforce and the Russians. if it is in the air, it is the Syrian government. That's been a characteristic of the war since the get go.

Also, the flying out of a Syrian airbase is a bit of a tell.

And yes, Octavious, the ever moving evidence thing is a conservative gimmick. See, e.g., climate inaction. Also, false flag conspiracy theories. Too much time cooking up ways to "prove" the Holocaust was a Jewish conspiracy or something, I think. It softens the brain.

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#16 Post by leon1122 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:21 am

Ogion wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:08 am
You aren't fooling anyone, leon. It's pretty simple. A lot of us pushed for the war to be ended from the get go by deposing Assad years ago.
Oh, yeah. I totally forgot. War is peace, freedom is slavery, and all that shit, right?
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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#17 Post by CroakandDagger » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:21 am

I'm not sure anybody wants war except the lobbying elements that profit from the manufacture of weapons and a certain US ally in the middle east who benefits from instability in their Islamic neighbours.

I personally would not trust any "summary" that uses the words "alleged", "suspected", "reported" and "claimed" as often as that bellingcat article and cites the corrupt White Helmets as a primary source, but I suppose that's your own prerogative.

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#18 Post by Octavious » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:13 pm

Ogion wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:08 am
And yes, Octavious, the ever moving evidence thing is a conservative gimmick. See, e.g., climate inaction. Also, false flag conspiracy theories. Too much time cooking up ways to "prove" the Holocaust was a Jewish conspiracy or something, I think. It softens the brain.
It's curious. Antisemitism has become a problem more associated with the Left in the UK in recent years. You still get the occasional far right lunatic, of course, but they are few in number and easily ignored. It's been quite an issue which the leader of the Labour party has handled with his usual ineptitude.

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#19 Post by CroakandDagger » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:27 pm

Well, with the growing Islamic population in Britain who have traditionally been Labour voters because they were the ones who relaxed immigration laws in order to import voters and simply bribe their imported ghettoes with social benefits while eroding the effectiveness of British infrastructure, generating unsustainable amounts of debt, compressing wages and increasing unemployment through an oversaturation of labour in the job market Labour now also has to pander to the fierce antisemitism of the Islamic demographic to keep their loyalties from shifting to another party that would better represent their highly codified religious beliefs in capital punishment, the persecution of homosexuals and the oppression of women.

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Re: Syrian Gas Attack: I'm Losing My Mind

#20 Post by RAGINGWOMBLE » Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:45 pm

CroakandDagger wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:27 pm
Well, with the growing Islamic population in Britain who have traditionally been Labour voters because they were the ones who relaxed immigration laws in order to import voters and simply bribe their imported ghettoes with social benefits while eroding the effectiveness of British infrastructure, generating unsustainable amounts of debt, compressing wages and increasing unemployment through an oversaturation of labour in the job market Labour now also has to pander to the fierce antisemitism of the Islamic demographic to keep their loyalties from shifting to another party that would better represent their highly codified religious beliefs in capital punishment, the persecution of homosexuals and the oppression of women.
The Muslim population of about 7%? I don't understand your logic, how does this tiny proportion of the population hold such a massive degree of political power? When they have barely any practising Muslim MPs? And Muslims in positions of power i.e. Sadiq Khan are barely practising and far more in favour of gay rights and other progressive causes than many non-Muslims?



As for Syria, I challenge anyone who thinks the rebels carried out the attacks to answer why they would gas their own families, rather than use their limited supplies whilst surrounded on the Syrian government.

Similarly, I challenge you to understand that with evacuation negotiations stalled, the Syrian government forced Jaysh al-Islam's hand by using chemical weapons.
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