War, what is it good for?

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orathaic
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#261 Post by orathaic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:21 am

The only thing that we know for certain is that the current situation is shite and we have failed abysmally.
You can assert that we have failed abysmally, but that requires at pretty Imperialist idea that the events of history always unfold according to the whims of power White Western interests.

Ukrainian interests and Russian interests are reduced to non-actors responding to our great Imperial projects.

It is BS, and a failing of insight which will lead you to repeating the same mistakes as the invasion of Iraq did (ignoring Iraqi interests, and how Iranian actors would respond) or how the power vaccum left behind facilitated the creation of the Islamic State by ignoring the interests of Sunni groups in a (Shia) Iranian dominated Iraq...

We can agree only that the current situation is suite - for Ukrainians. And we should do whatever we can to support them. Empower them to make decisions for themselves.

We could even give them nuclear weapons, after all, nobody ever invades nuclear powers. And the US has loads of un-used nuclear weapons...

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#262 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:48 am

orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:21 am
You can assert that we have failed abysmally, but that requires at pretty Imperialist idea that the events of history always unfold according to the whims of power White Western interests.

Ukrainian interests and Russian interests are reduced to non-actors responding to our great Imperial projects.
Oh for God's sake, give the left wing propaganda crap a rest for once. No, it requires nothing of the sort. It requires the simple observation that 100,000 + dead and wounded, countless villages, towns and cities utterly ruined, families torn apart, refugees scattered across the world, and western economies heading into recession with the cheap energy that sustained their industries a thing of the past... is a sign of failure. Russia and Ukraine are not reduced to none actors. They have failed too. But their failure does nothing to mitigate nor reduce the colossal scale of our own.
Last edited by Octavious on Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#263 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:51 am

orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:21 am
We can agree only that the current situation is suite
This is not a phrase I'm familiar with. What does it mean?
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#264 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:53 am

orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:21 am
We could even give them nuclear weapons, after all, nobody ever invades nuclear powers. And the US has loads of un-used nuclear weapons...
That is so laughable, that it is barely worth writing a reply.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#265 Post by orathaic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:51 am

Octavious wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:48 am
Oh for God's sake, give the left wing propaganda crap a rest for once
It is amazing you think you can reliable identify propoganda when your entire position requires reducing Ukrainians to objects in your narrative where we are the subjects.

Especially since this is exactly what Putin does with regards to Ukraine.

You have literally talked about giving Ukrainian land away as a form of appeasement. When you infact don't own that land to give it. What we should do is listen to what the Ukrainians want, and decide whether to support them or not. As if they are infact able to decide for themselves if they want to give up land for peace.


Octavious wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:51 am
orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:21 am
We can agree only that the current situation is suite
This is not a phrase I'm familiar with. What does it mean?
Shite is apparently typoed or autocorrected on my phone.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#266 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 12:13 pm

orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:51 am
It is amazing you think you can reliable identify propoganda when your entire position requires reducing Ukrainians to objects in your narrative where we are the subjects.
Utter bollocks, and a sad indictment of your unwillingness to even attempt to understand other people's viewpoints.
orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:51 am
You have literally talked about giving Ukrainian land away as a form of appeasement. When you infact don't own that land to give it.
I've done no such thing. But it is important to keep in touch with reality and the reality is that if we stop supporting Ukraine then Russia wins and takes what it wants. Ukraine's negotiating position is entirely dependent on the West. Ukraine cannot hope to negotiate any positive result without us, which makes our voice important. If there's an outcome that Ukraine wants but we don't, and it can't be achieved without our help, it doesn't happen.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#267 Post by French_boi » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:57 pm

Ukraine has to keep sovereignty over its territories. That's the bottom line. Russia started the war/invasion - Russia is to blame for the deaths. None of us want WW3, much less a nuclear apocalypse - but appeasement simply doesn't work as a strategy. It has been tested before and hasn't worked.

Putin needs to be humiliated by Ukraine, and once the war becomes increasingly unpopular and politically untenable, he will have no choice but to back off to cling to his power (which in the end is what he values above all else). It is a fine line that has to be walked here - but it's the only one that will work.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#268 Post by flash2015 » Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:12 am

French_boi wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:57 pm
Ukraine has to keep sovereignty over its territories. That's the bottom line. Russia started the war/invasion - Russia is to blame for the deaths. None of us want WW3, much less a nuclear apocalypse - but appeasement simply doesn't work as a strategy. It has been tested before and hasn't worked.

Putin needs to be humiliated by Ukraine, and once the war becomes increasingly unpopular and politically untenable, he will have no choice but to back off to cling to his power (which in the end is what he values above all else). It is a fine line that has to be walked here - but it's the only one that will work.
How badly does he need to be humiliated? Lose all the land gained since the start of the war? Does he need to lose Crimea too?

One thing about most of the areas Russia controls now - they were already heavily pro-Russian even before the war (just look at the vote map from 2010). I can understand that we don't want to reward Russia for bad behaviour, but given the demographics perhaps it would be better if Russia kept at least some of this area?

Of course there is the issue of resources too. Early in the 2010s oil was found near Crimea and the Donbas (one reason that Putin took Crimea). Whatever Putin is allowed to keep, Ukraine should take control of at least part of these resource areas back.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#269 Post by French_boi » Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:43 am

flash2015 wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:12 am
French_boi wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:57 pm
(just look at the vote map from 2010).
According to Russia all of these territories are 95%+ in favor of joining Russia, so...

But in all seriousness, do you really think that any of these areas support Russia's invasion in the present moment?
And 2010 is a bit far back to go lol. If you look at the 2019 Presidential election, Zelensky won by huge margins in all the invaded areas, and even though the pro-Russian party (that denounced Russia's invasion) did win in some of the regions next to Russia, it is much less than in any previous elections and not even close to the amount of territory currently controlled by Russia's military.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#270 Post by French_boi » Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:43 am

Messed up the quoting on that last one lol.
1

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#271 Post by flash2015 » Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:52 am

French_boi wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:12 am
flash2015 wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:57 pm
(just look at the vote map from 2010).
According to Russia all of these territories are 95%+ in favor of joining Russia, so...

But in all seriousness, do you really think that any of these areas support Russia's invasion in the present moment?
And 2010 is a bit far back to go lol. If you look at the 2019 Presidential election, Zelensky won by huge margins in all the invaded areas, and even though the pro-Russian party (that denounced Russia's invasion) did win in some of the regions next to Russia, it is much less than in any previous elections and not even close to the amount of territory currently controlled by Russia's military.
I am choosing 2010 because that was the last time there was a prominent pro-Russian candidate. Note that in 2019, Crimea as well as part of Donetsk and Luhansk (all very pro-Russian areas) DID NOT vote in this election.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#272 Post by French_boi » Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:57 am

The reason for that is because Russia had annexed Crimea already and Russian-backed insurgents controlled those parts of Ukraine lol.
I really don't think that's an argument in your direction.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#273 Post by Octavious » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:48 am

French_boi wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:43 am
But in all seriousness, do you really think that any of these areas support Russia's invasion in the present moment?
It's highly unlikely. However there's a massive difference between supporting or opposing an invasion, and how they might like the end of the invasion to play out. I suspect that a large number of the people who were Russian speakers and initially pro-Russia may see a safer future as part of Russia rather than part of a potentially vengeful Ukraine. Especially those in the areas that have been apart from Ukraine for some years.

It would be interesting to know how the Ukrainian people as a whole would have supported the robust defence of the nation if they had known what they cost would be. Still, the opportunity for deals that could have avoided that is long gone, so it's all rather academic.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#274 Post by orathaic » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:17 am

flash2015 wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:12 am
French_boi wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:57 pm
Ukraine has to keep sovereignty over its territories. That's the bottom line. Russia started the war/invasion - Russia is to blame for the deaths. None of us want WW3, much less a nuclear apocalypse - but appeasement simply doesn't work as a strategy. It has been tested before and hasn't worked.

Putin needs to be humiliated by Ukraine, and once the war becomes increasingly unpopular and politically untenable, he will have no choice but to back off to cling to his power (which in the end is what he values above all else). It is a fine line that has to be walked here - but it's the only one that will work.
How badly does he need to be humiliated? Lose all the land gained since the start of the war? Does he need to lose Crimea too?

One thing about most of the areas Russia controls now - they were already heavily pro-Russian even before the war (just look at the vote map from 2010). I can understand that we don't want to reward Russia for bad behaviour, but given the demographics perhaps it would be better if Russia kept at least some of this area?

Of course there is the issue of resources too. Early in the 2010s oil was found near Crimea and the Donbas (one reason that Putin took Crimea). Whatever Putin is allowed to keep, Ukraine should take control of at least part of these resource areas back.
Support for Russia has, rather unsurprisingly, dropped off a cliff since they, em... Invaded? Yeah that was it.

Pre-invasion it was roughly 60-40, or maybe closer to 55-45, now across the whole country it is closer to 90-5. And in the areas occupied by Russia, the hatred of Russia is very high. Though some are not willing to b'é open about it, because if they openly express anti-Russia sentiments and Russia wins, they know what is likely to happen.
.
On the ground, areas which have been occupied (apart from Crimea) since 2014 have beenooted, had every able bodies man presses i to conscription, and seen their economies collapse. They don't want to be part of Russia, and only an influx of Russians will ever reverse the economic decline (which given Russian demographics decline and lack of interest in the region, seems pretty unlikely, but does amount to colonisation anyway).

Crimea is an exception. It was part of Russia until what ~1953? And given to the Ukraine SSR as a gift for helping to win WW2. It was also colonized by Russia fully in the previous century, with Crimean Tartars exiled to the far east (i guess it was under Ottoman influence previous to the 1853 Crimean war... But I'm not sure Turkey wants it back, or if the less than ~1% population of Crimean Tartars who remain make a viable option).

Still, the rule of law would require a full return of all land stolen in order to dissuade Russia (or anyone else) from invading sovereign countries (sure it would be great if we could also hold countries accountable for human rights absues within their borders... But that is its own thread).

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#275 Post by Octavious » Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:49 am

orathaic wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:17 am
Pre-invasion it was roughly 60-40, or maybe closer to 55-45, now across the whole country it is closer to 90-5. And in the areas occupied by Russia, the hatred of Russia is very high. Though some are not willing to b'é open about it, because if they openly express anti-Russia sentiments and Russia wins, they know what is likely to happen.
.
Out of curiosity, where are you finding the data for this?
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#276 Post by flash2015 » Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:12 pm

French_boi wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:57 am
The reason for that is because Russia had annexed Crimea already and Russian-backed insurgents controlled those parts of Ukraine lol.
I really don't think that's an argument in your direction.
So given your answers I am assuming you are suggesting that Russia should not be allowed to keep anything, including Crimea?

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#277 Post by orathaic » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:33 pm

Octavious wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:49 am
orathaic wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:17 am
Pre-invasion it was roughly 60-40, or maybe closer to 55-45, now across the whole country it is closer to 90-5. And in the areas occupied by Russia, the hatred of Russia is very high. Though some are not willing to b'é open about it, because if they openly express anti-Russia sentiments and Russia wins, they know what is likely to happen.
.
Out of curiosity, where are you finding the data for this?
I do not remember the source. Also my figures are indicative not exact, but given that we have election results for the pre-2014 figures they are certainly more reliable. That said, it is no surprise to me to hear the being invaded by a country will turn you against them (especially in occupied areas where their troops are stealing stuff at a minimum - probably also committing war crimes).

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#278 Post by orathaic » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:39 pm

Octavious wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:48 am
French_boi wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:43 am
But in all seriousness, do you really think that any of these areas support Russia's invasion in the present moment?
It's highly unlikely. However there's a massive difference between supporting or opposing an invasion, and how they might like the end of the invasion to play out. I suspect that a large number of the people who were Russian speakers and initially pro-Russia may see a safer future as part of Russia rather than part of a potentially vengeful Ukraine. Especially those in the areas that have been apart from Ukraine for some years.

It would be interesting to know how the Ukrainian people as a whole would have supported the robust defence of the nation if they had known what they cost would be. Still, the opportunity for deals that could have avoided that is long gone, so it's all rather academic.
Two groups there, 1) they are cautious, and from what i have seen don't want to cheer too hard when Urkainian troops liberate their villages, because they fear Russia might come back... Those still under Russia occupation may also fear what will happen. So caution all round.

2) most see a narrative of them winning and would be happy to give Russia a bloody nose. Public opinion in Ukraine actually ties Zelensky's hands regarding negotiations, he knows giving up land to Russia would have gotten him ousted at least in March-ish (like they could have ceeded the Donbas perhaps) it could have gotten him killed by his own security services.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#279 Post by orathaic » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:45 pm

Found at least some data to backup my suggestion that public opinion has swing heavily against Russia : https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukra ... _2022.html

And here : 84% Ukraine should not concede any territory vs 10% Ukraine should concede territory for a faster peace (from July)
https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=r ... 124&page=2

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#280 Post by French_boi » Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:29 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:12 pm
French_boi wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:57 am
The reason for that is because Russia had annexed Crimea already and Russian-backed insurgents controlled those parts of Ukraine lol.
I really don't think that's an argument in your direction.
So given your answers I am assuming you are suggesting that Russia should not be allowed to keep anything, including Crimea?
No - I'm just saying that your reasoning for using outdated elections as opposed to the more recent ones is incorrect. I have no position on if Ukraine should try to take back Crimea too (though given the recent attack on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia I assume they might).

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