War, what is it good for?

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orathaic
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#241 Post by orathaic » Sun Sep 04, 2022 9:05 am

Some interesting takes: https://youtu.be/y-Zk7K9Un2U

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#242 Post by Octavious » Sun Sep 04, 2022 9:49 am

I'm always a bit concerned when the video starts off with images of a series of articles that he clearly hasn't actually read, before declaring them "baloney". The Peter Hughes article, shown in the first 10 seconds or so, is largely concerned with the influence of Ivan Ilyin and was written way back in April. The article written by the same publication after and about the assassination said the following :
"This murder will only add to the Dugin myth, one he himself has so assiduously developed. There are many in the West happy to take him at face value, as ‘Putin’s Brain’ or ‘Putin’s Rasputin’. He is not, though, and never has been especially influential. He has no personal connection to Putin, but rather is just one of a whole breed of ‘political entrepreneurs’ trying to pitch their plans and doctrines to the Kremlin."
Which, whilst being the obvious article to reference if talking about the assassination, was completely ignored as it goes against the YouTuber's narrative. So I'm rather inclined to dismiss it as a propaganda piece and not bother listening to the whole thing.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#243 Post by orathaic » Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:24 am

I liked the part where he admits that we don't know, and probably will never know, who was responcible for this assassination. Very fresh.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#244 Post by Octavious » Sun Sep 04, 2022 7:05 pm

orathaic wrote:
Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:24 am
I liked the part where he admits that we don't know, and probably will never know, who was responcible for this assassination. Very fresh.
Does the mainstream media work differently in Ireland? That's pretty much what was reported here. No idea whether it was the Ukrainians, Russian government, or just some of Durgin's many other enemies
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#245 Post by orathaic » Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:01 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:04 pm
orathaic wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:06 pm
https://youtu.be/hyldM3pKZAU

Very pro-Ukraine video. As with all war news, i don't know how accurate the picture presented is
I watched his video. I think he is right about the importance of the upcoming Kherson offensive. Hopefully the HIMARS rockets are really the game changer he suggests they are.

A less positive view on the situation:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/ukr ... f-kherson/

The good thing though is that we will be able to determine who is correct in the next few weeks.
Looking back, several things are clear.

Ukrainian advances since demonstrate several things.

1) Ukrainian forces can remove Russia from urban areas - usually by out manoeuvring them, forcing them to flee and/or surrender and resulting in the capture of significant amounts of military equipment and ammunition.

2) the Kherson offensive did mean Russia reacted, unfortunately that reaction has meant tens of thousands of Russian troops on the North side of the Dnipero river, largely cut off. And at the same time Ukrainian troops took advantage of this Russian troops movements to take back all of the Kharkiv Oblast and is now pushing into the Luhansk Oblast - where intercepted Russian phone calls show the soldiers on the ground believe they don't have enough troops to hold their positions, and captured equipment show that Russia has deployed its newest tanks (not found in captured Russian equipment in Kherson).

The only reamining issue raised by the above article was that if Ukraine can achieve 2 other miracles, then they can't cross the Dnipero river and liberate the rest of the Kherson Oblast.

Though will be in position to destroy the canal which feeds water to Crimea, so i suspect taking the capital of the Oblast and killing or capturing ~20,000 Russian troops will be seem as a significant enough victory for Ukraine.

The next offensive will likely begin on the other side of the river, from the Zaporizhzhia Oblast attempting to cut the land bridge to Crimea (after a successful attack on the Kerch bridge - forcing Russia to spend more resources defending their rear and supply lines, if nothing else.

Moral among the Russian troops is terrible, and civil unrest at their mobilization is growing. Putin is left with very few good options. Admitting defeat will likely risk Putin's position, as the hardliners who have been calling for full mobilization will want to oust him, meanwhile pushing for full mobilization will annoy the moderated who want an end to the war. But it is very hard to tell much about the internal workings of the Russian leadership... Just that all options for Putin seem pretty bad.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#246 Post by flash2015 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 7:20 pm

The Ukrainians have the momentum at the moment and can probably continue to make gains.

What is the right way to end this now? Give Putin an out to claim some victory (Ukraine will need to officially cede some land)? Or press ahead to humiliate Putin...and hope for a coup in Russia?

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#247 Post by Octavious » Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:08 pm

Anyone hoping for a coup in a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons that could easily split into rival vindictive states needs their heads examined. It would be rolling the dice with most outcomes being considerably worse than the status quo, and some being too terrible to contemplate.

The war has already been a disaster. Countless thousands dead, towns and cities in ruins, European economies on their knees. It will get worse, and has the potential to become too awful to contemplate.

We've made an utter hash of this whole thing. A complete failure of diplomacy, with no way out that doesn't have ridiculously high risks attached.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#248 Post by orathaic » Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:56 pm

European economies on their knees? I've not seen any evidence to that effect.

Also, if EU diplomacy was supposed to prevent another war in Europe, then yes it has utterly failed. But that was largely down to Putin wanting to de-estsblish to borders of the USSR, and knowing that the declining Russian demographics meant it was now or never.

No amount of diplomacy could have changed this, appeasement might have resulted in short term gains, but nothing more.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#249 Post by Octavious » Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:58 pm

orathaic wrote:
Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:56 pm
No amount of diplomacy could have changed this, appeasement might have resulted in short term gains, but nothing more.
It could easily have changed it. A less aggressive expansion of NATO over the last few decades could have avoided relations with Russia deteriorating. A less blatant attempt to pressure Ukraine into falling into line with Western Europe, less enthusiasm for the coup that drove out the pro-Russian Ukrainian government, could have avoided making Ukraine an international hot spot. And if the West was dead set on policies hostile to Russia, then showing real backbone with sanctions after the Crimea incident might have convinced Putin that we were serious about backing Ukraine. Western democracy has been an embarrassment in the lead up to all this. A schoolyard bully strategy of hostility attempting to disguise a core of cowardice.

When it kicked off with the recent invasion, it was in no small part because we had utterly failed to convince Putin that when we said we'd back Ukraine we meant it. In a game of Diplomacy it is a small failure on your part if you are unable to make your lies believable, but it is a massive and typically game losing failure on your part if you are unable to make your truths believable. And that, in a nutshell, us what got us into this mess. Since then we have been desperately firefighting with no real idea what our endgame is. We have the tiger by the tail but have no idea how to kill it and we're terrified of what will happen if we let go. All we seem to be doing is holding on for dear life and hoping it gets tired before we do.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#250 Post by flash2015 » Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:38 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:08 pm
Anyone hoping for a coup in a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons that could easily split into rival vindictive states needs their heads examined. It would be rolling the dice with most outcomes being considerably worse than the status quo, and some being too terrible to contemplate.

The war has already been a disaster. Countless thousands dead, towns and cities in ruins, European economies on their knees. It will get worse, and has the potential to become too awful to contemplate.

We've made an utter hash of this whole thing. A complete failure of diplomacy, with no way out that doesn't have ridiculously high risks attached.
It is what it is. We can't go back and change the past.

I can understand there aren't any good options...but what is the least worst one?

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#251 Post by French_boi » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:41 am

The only thing that would have prevented Russia from going this far was to respond strongly to their past invasions. Never forget that the appeasement only emboldened Hitler to go after more territory. If world leaders had acted the way they have for this war in 2008(Georgia) and 2014(Crimea) - Russia wouldn't have been emboldened to invade all of Ukraine.
Putin is hungry for territory and power - the world
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#252 Post by French_boi » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:42 am

*continued
- the world shouldn't make the same mistake that was made in the 30's
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#253 Post by orathaic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:18 am

French_boi wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:42 am
*continued
- the world shouldn't make the same mistake that was made in the 30's
Fortunately we are not. Russia's weakness and corruption has shown how poorly equipped their army actually is. They economy is dependent on German machines (among others) and sanctions have left them using weapons from the 60s - while Ukraine is being sent modern NATO standard weapons and building their own.

There is a reason the Russia war machine stalked in June/July and Ukraine gained the initiative, which built to the current momentum. And there is a reason Russian conscripts are not being given socks to wear, and told to buy their own sleeping bags. It is a toxic culture which forces intelligence services to lie about their own capabilities in order to avoid being acqused of being anti-Russia, and a system of corruption and theft which has left Oligarchs buying super-yachts from government contracts they pretended to fulfill... Army general's being paid* so badly they sell off equipment... And so on, down the line to the point where everyone knows they have to steal or sell off whatever they can, so front line troops in Ukraine are stealing washing machines from Ukrainian homes.

*Putin's Russia has made sure the army is not considered a high prestige jobs, elevating instead the security services. Mostly to avoid a military coup, and maintain a strangled hold on the country.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#254 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:44 am

flash2015 wrote:
Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:38 pm
It is what it is. We can't go back and change the past.
No we can't, but we should try to recognise where we cocked things up. If we refuse to acknowledge our mistakes we will inevitably make them again.
flash2015 wrote:
Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:38 pm
I can understand there aren't any good options...but what is the least worst one?
That's very much the question, isn't it? There are various strategies we can pursue, and each of them can result in a variety of outcomes ranging from the grim to the catastrophic. The strategy of continuing to throw more resources at Ukraine in the hope of the outcome that the Russians are completely driven out of all Ukraine and Putin's premiership is peacefully replaced by a manic pixie dream President is the strategy also most likely to result in the disintegration of Russia into rival failed nuclear states with mafia leaders and chips on their shoulders, or even all out nuclear war and an end to humanity. That's not a dartboard I'm particularly inclined to throw at.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#255 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:34 am

It's also worth keeping in mind that the Russians are also pursuing strategies and it would be foolish to think of their conventional army as a spent force limited to trying to hold the line and managed retreat. It would not come as a complete surprise if the Russians use the current feeling of complacency to launch an attack on Kiev
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#256 Post by orathaic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:40 am

Octavious wrote:
Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:58 pm
orathaic wrote:
Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:56 pm
No amount of diplomacy could have changed this, appeasement might have resulted in short term gains, but nothing more.
It could easily have changed it. A less aggressive expansion of NATO over the last few decades could have avoided relations with Russia deteriorating. A less blatant attempt to pressure Ukraine into falling into line with Western Europe, less enthusiasm for the coup that drove out the pro-Russian Ukrainian government, could have avoided making Ukraine an international hot spot. And if the West was dead set on policies hostile to Russia, then showing real backbone with sanctions after the Crimea incident might have convinced Putin that we were serious about backing Ukraine. Western democracy has been an embarrassment in the lead up to all this. A schoolyard bully strategy of hostility attempting to disguise a core of cowardice.
This counter factual is unprovable.

Putin wants to right the precieved tragedy of the 91 break up of the Soviet Union, and loss of territory which saw Russia protected. It is arguable that a less 'aggressive' NATO expansion policy would have meant Russia acted earlier and took more territory before coming to the point of bear direct confrontation (with NATO weapons systems at least).

And you can't prove my theory is any less true than yours.

We pushed a policy of economic integration. - particularly Germany - in the hopes the countries which relied heavily on each other could not afford to go to war.

And this was actually a good thing. It has worked for France and Germany, for France, Germany and the UK. How many times in the last 400 years have those countries not been at war for 78 consequtively (and no end in sight, despite Brexit).

The fact that it failed to win over Russian leadership is not a failing of ours

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#257 Post by orathaic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:52 am

The strategy of continuing to throw more resources at Ukraine in the hope of the outcome that the Russians are completely driven out of all Ukraine and Putin's premiership is peacefully replaced by a manic pixie dream
We don't get to decide whether the Ukrainian fight for their own territory. The are actual people with their own Sovereignty. We can only decide to support them or let them die.

The fact the Russia acted as agressor in this war, and in 2014, and in 2008, demonstrates, if nothing else, that they will continue to fight for territory that they want to reclaim until they are stopped.

To assume otherwise is naive. To hope for a coup is pointless. Russia defeated on the battlefield is the only thing which will demonstrate that military agression will not achieve Putin's goals.

And we are very lucky that Ukrainians are willing to do that for is, for our protection. Not supporting them would be morally repugnent and strategically idiotic.
Whatever you believe about Putin's willingness to use nuclear weapons (he will not, he knows NATO is holding back), or a potential coup (more likely, but i suspect launch control will be maintained in Moscow - making it impossible for weapons to be immediately launched in the short term (the medium terms will require careful discussion and security guarentees - likely better guarentees that Moscow will not reconquer them, but giving up on Ukraine also undermines the West's ability to provide such guarentees).

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#258 Post by orathaic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:54 am

Octavious wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:34 am
It's also worth keeping in mind that the Russians are also pursuing strategies and it would be foolish to think of their conventional army as a spent force limited to trying to hold the line and managed retreat. It would not come as a complete surprise if the Russians use the current feeling of complacency to launch an attack on Kiev
That is so laughable, that it is barely worth writing a reply.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#259 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:08 am

orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:40 am
This counter factual is unprovable.
A pretty vacuous statement. Of course it's unprovable. Nothing we are able to discuss about the future of Ukraine and alternative ways of doing things in the past is provable. If you want proof you will be permanently disappointed. The only thing that we know for certain is that the current situation is shite and we have failed abysmally.
orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:40 am
And this was actually a good thing. It has worked for France and Germany, for France, Germany and the UK. How many times in the last 400 years have those countries not been at war for 78 consequtively (and no end in sight, despite Brexit).
Let's leave the nonsensical argument that the only thing keeping Western European nations from going to war with each other is the EU for other threads ;)
orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:40 am
The fact that it failed to win over Russian leadership is not a failing of ours
Of course it's a failing of ours. This is not what success looks like. We are a long long way from giving ourselves a pat on the back for a job well done. How abysmal do you need things to get before acknowledging failure???

Or are you seriously thinking along the lines that it's all Russia's failure? How you've managed to win 6 games of diplomacy with that attitude is beyond me :razz:
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#260 Post by Octavious » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:30 am

orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:52 am
We don't get to decide whether the Ukrainian fight for their own territory. The are actual people with their own Sovereignty. We can only decide to support them or let them die.
Let's cut out that crap for a start. Tens of thousands more people have died because of our support for Ukraine than would have died if we had done nothing. Don't lie to yourself, mate. Our strategy has never been the minimise death option. You can talk about trying to preserve sovereignty or quality of life or defend democracy or weaken Russia with varying degrees of legitimacy, but there are no grounds whatsoever for claiming that our actions have been taken to save Ukrainian lives.
orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:52 am
Russia defeated on the battlefield is the only thing which will demonstrate that military agression will not achieve Putin's goals.
Job done. In fact, job was done by the end of the spring. Putin has tested Western military equipment against his own and knows there is no possibility of conventional victories against any NATO or EU nation. This has been very obvious to him for some time, and no amount of additional fighting and death will change it. Fighting Russia out of Crimea and the Dombas will add nothing to this equation.
orathaic wrote:
Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:52 am
And we are very lucky that Ukrainians are willing to do that for is, for our protection
I assure you that no Ukrainians whatsoever are doing it for us
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