webdiplomacy.net

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/15/95686881 ... -for-biden

Less than two weeks to go, and the outgoing Secretary of State seems to be purposely poking the China. While no one can predict the future with 100% accuracy, Taiwan seems to be one of the most likely spark that leads to a legitimate armed conflict between two global *superpowers*.

Big deal? No deal?

Bonus round: On a scale of 0-10 (0=no chance, 10=100% chance), how likely are the US and China to engage in fisticuffs by 2030?

3 out of 10.

I think China and US have more to gain from cooperation. Though huges moves on China's part to develop green technology gives them a strategic advantage at the moment.

Depends on your definition of fisticuffs. If you count a couple of naval vessels getting too enthusiastic in a game of chicken and accidentally ramming each other, probably quite high. If you mean a genuine conflict with significant forces shooting at each other for a significant period of time... I don't see it as being very likely at all. I can't see Biden taking any big military risks, and why would China when every day that passes lessens the US military advantage?

1 out of 10.