Electoral College predictions (among others)

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Matticus13
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Electoral College predictions (among others)

#1 Post by Matticus13 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:20 am

Place your bets! I'm going bold with my predictions...

Biden: 380 - Trump: 158

Biden carries the swing states of Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and two *surprise* states - Texas (early vote totals larger than the total number of votes cast in 2016 election), and Georgia. Trump holds on to North Carolina and Ohio, but it isn't enough.

Other predictions:

Senate: Democrats add win new seats in: IA, NC, AZ, CO, ME, and one of the two seats open in GA. The Republicans gain back AL. This results in a 53 - 47 Democrat majority.

House: Democrats add two seats to their majority.
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New England Fire Squad
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#2 Post by New England Fire Squad » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:31 am

Matticus13 wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:20 am
Place your bets! I'm going bold with my predictions...

Biden: 380 - Trump: 158

Biden carries the swing states of Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and two *surprise* states - Texas (early vote totals larger than the total number of votes cast in 2016 election), and Georgia. Trump holds on to North Carolina and Ohio, but it isn't enough.

Other predictions:

Senate: Democrats add win new seats in: IA, NC, AZ, CO, ME, and one of the two seats open in GA. The Republicans gain back AL. This results in a 53 - 47 Democrat majority.

House: Democrats add two seats to their majority.
Biden 270, Trump 268. Biden flips WI, MI, AZ and Nebraska’s Omaha district for the win. Trump holds on to PA and everything else, making everyone think he’s won until AZ breaks late. AZ doesn’t declare for weeks.
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peterlund
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#3 Post by peterlund » Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:09 am

This system needs to be removed/modified so that all voters in all states (also the current non-swing states) feel that their vote matters in the presidential election.
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#4 Post by Matticus13 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:18 am

New England Fire Squad wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:31 am
Matticus13 wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:20 am
Place your bets! I'm going bold with my predictions...

Biden: 380 - Trump: 158

Biden carries the swing states of Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and two *surprise* states - Texas (early vote totals larger than the total number of votes cast in 2016 election), and Georgia. Trump holds on to North Carolina and Ohio, but it isn't enough.

Other predictions:

Senate: Democrats add win new seats in: IA, NC, AZ, CO, ME, and one of the two seats open in GA. The Republicans gain back AL. This results in a 53 - 47 Democrat majority.

House: Democrats add two seats to their majority.
Biden 270, Trump 268. Biden flips WI, MI, AZ and Nebraska’s Omaha district for the win. Trump holds on to PA and everything else, making everyone think he’s won until AZ breaks late. AZ doesn’t declare for weeks.
Very bold. What an absolute mess that would be...

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#5 Post by orathaic » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:51 pm

peterlund wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:09 am
This system needs to be removed/modified so that all voters in all states (also the current non-swing states) feel that their vote matters in the presidential election.
There is a plan (without constitutional amendment) to enact a popular vote.

Currently 196 electoral college votes worth of states have agreed. Which isn't enough (and the law does nothing until 50% of the EC sign upl.

See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationa ... te_Compact
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#6 Post by brainbomb » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:32 pm

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

RCP has Biden holding leads in enough states to hit 370 Electoral votes. There is no bombshell story to derail him like there was Hillary. People dont hate Joe like they hated Hillary.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#7 Post by brainbomb » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:34 pm

I dont have a problem with the electoral college. It is rather silly to imagine that a bunch of idiots in wisconsin can cost us our democracy

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#8 Post by orathaic » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:29 pm

Any prediction on the turnout?
Given that is has been between 50-57% since 2000.
Obama's first election hitting the high point at 57%.

Will they break 60% for the first time since 1968?

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#9 Post by flash2015 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:45 pm

Here is my random prediction (I hope I don't jinx it).

Democrats pickup GA, WI, MI, Maine 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, AZ but lose narrowly PA and NV. They go close in FL...but the GOP ground game was too good. TX also goes very close...as always though it will be "next time". They go surprisingly close in MT with a popular democrat on the Senate ballot and high turnout. 285 - 253. Of course Biden wins the popular vote by double what Hillary did in 2016.

Democrats pick AZ, CO, ME, GA (Ossoff), MT but lose AL. 51-49

House: Democrats add 5 to their majority.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#10 Post by flash2015 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:51 pm

orathaic wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:29 pm
Any prediction on the turnout?
Given that is has been between 50-57% since 2000.
Obama's first election hitting the high point at 57%.

Will they break 60% for the first time since 1968?
Easily. Multiple people are predicting 150M+ ballots which represent 65%+ of eligible voters. We are already at 90M ballots cast.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#11 Post by President Eden » Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:38 pm

I swore to stay out of this subforum but I figure electoral college predictions are 'safe' enough. Please try to contain your excitement as this will be a rare if not one-off post. ;-)

Assuming no shenanigans... and I don't say this to suggest that the shenanigans cut one way or the other; it seems a certainty that whatever the election night result, there will be court challenges, but I am not so bold as to guess how those break. But if no shenanigans:

EC map: https://i.imgur.com/0b9Zw3U.png
EC result: Trump 274 - 264
Popular vote projection: Biden +3.5-4%

If I weren't making a prediction then I would put the four close-call Midwestern states as too close to call, as well as Arizona. I'm basing those calls on early voting ballot returns by party affiliation, based off the conventional wisdom that Democrats are expected to win early voting and Republicans day-of voting. (44% of early voting ballots cast nationwide are Democratic, 37% Republican, 19% unaffiliated or third party.)

Right now Trump actually leads or ties early voting* in Michigan and Wisconsin, which makes me think he will eke out another very slim victory there. Likewise, Democrats are dominating early voting in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, so I suspect the gap by election night will be too big to overcome. It's true that he's leading in Arizona, so perhaps I am being inconsistent, but I get the feeling that Arizona has shifted blue, similar to what's going on in Georgia and Texas, and that this will manifest in 2020 rather than 2024.

If he wins it will be very slim; 300+ EVs is not out of the question but unlikely, and the most probable result is in the 270-280s range if he wins. The popular vote is a question of by how much Biden will win, rather than if.

Georgia and Texas are wishful thinking for Democrats in 2020, but I think are a virtual certainty in 2024. It wouldn't surprise me based on current trends if 2020 is the final election in which the Republican Party, as currently constituted, is a viable option in national elections. It's possible with a stronger candidate that Democrats could break 400 electoral votes in 2024; the situation is that dire for Republicans. And these aren't short-term shifts in policy preferences, these are fundamental, demographic shifts that have all been cutting against the Republican Party for decades finally coming home to roost. I will be interested to see the reaction by the elites, because much of the odious aspects of America's political system depend on the two party system to gatekeep dissatisfied people from offering something legitimately different, and that system seems set to go up in smoke.

This election is going to be close, hotly contested well after Election Day ends, and the "end of an era" in more ways than one. And if I may say, this will be the least deserved election in a long time, no matter who wins; this election is largely a referendum on Trump vs the Democratic Party. Despite the Christmas levels of yard decorations I'm seeing around town, I have yet to meet someone who, after a decent conversation, will admit that they are happy with their candidate. Biden voters seem universally animated by hate for Trump, and Trump voters seem universally animated by hate for the Democratic Party. If the pollsters think to ask this question, then I'd bet we would see record low numbers of voters who are voting 'for' their candidate as opposed to 'against' the other. That phenomenon is normal in American politics but appears very, very strong in 2020.

(*: There is almost zero crossover voting that will happen in 2020, contrary to the fever dreams of Democratic and Republican enthusiasts alike. Thus, party affiliation is a decent barometer of voting intentions. Obviously, projecting how the unaffiliated or third party voters will break based on ballot returns is an exercise in clairvoyance, so I have factored them out.)

[SOURCE FOR EARLY VOTING DATA: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... an-results - there's a drop down menu that lets you view any race similarly to Michigan here.]
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#12 Post by flash2015 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:14 pm

It is a reasonable analysis. I saw that too...the early voting numbers for MI and WI. But there are a huge number of unaffiliated. And the polls now vs. 2016 show twice the lead vs. Clinton in 2016 where the pollsters have tried to make up for their mistakes (e.g. they are now very big on quotas in each demographic to ensure they don't under-represent particular groups). I just can't see them getting it even more wrong this time.

I am thinking it could potentially be the other way (he keeps PA but loses WI/MI) because of the fracking thing in the last debate...even though early voting has gone strongly for democrats in PA. The early voting participation in PA has been relatively low - only 37% of 2016 turnout so far vs. states like TX/GA/FL/AZ with close to 100% (or more) of the 2016 turnout.

Anyway, we will see in a few days.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#13 Post by flash2015 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:18 pm

There are still over 33M postal ballots (out of 91M requested) that have not been returned yet. I wonder if this is because people won't be returning them...or are states way behind in processing them? This number comes from here:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vo ... index.html

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#14 Post by flash2015 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:25 pm

I believe coronavirus will likely also be a big issue in WI and MI with both now having big outbreaks. WI is having its highest daily death rates since the pandemic began.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#15 Post by RoganJosh » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:12 am

I think the polling error is gonna be in favor of Biden this time. My first (bad) reason is, that it's weird that people always seems to think what happened the last election is what's gonna happen this election. My second (good) reason is that I think you'll follow the patterns seen elsewhere. The racists have shy voters as long as they're the underdog. Once they stop being the underdog, they don't have them anymore.
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#16 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:17 am

The very fact that you so readily dismiss Trump supporters as "The racists" goes a long way to showing that they have very good reason not to advertise their preference as they will likely suffer prejudice and condemnation. The treatment of pro Trump American celebrities underlines this.
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#17 Post by RoganJosh » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:46 am

Lol. I didn't call Trump supporters racists. I called Trump a racist.

Not sure if you just missed my point, or if you avoided it.
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#18 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am

Your point was not clear, made even less so by apparently describing the chap who has been struggling in the polls for 4 years as somehow not the underdog. That Trump is the underdog in this election is one of the few certainties there is :razz:.

Regardless, there are a huge number of reasons for Trump supporters to be reluctant to declare their intentions before the freedom of the ballot box. There are a fair few reasons for Biden supporters to act the same way, for that matter.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#19 Post by flash2015 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:23 pm

Octavious wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am
Your point was not clear, made even less so by apparently describing the chap who has been struggling in the polls for 4 years as somehow not the underdog. That Trump is the underdog in this election is one of the few certainties there is :razz:.

Regardless, there are a huge number of reasons for Trump supporters to be reluctant to declare their intentions before the freedom of the ballot box. There are a fair few reasons for Biden supporters to act the same way, for that matter.
Are you game to make a prediction then? Here is my understanding of the predictions so far:

Big Biden Win - Matticus, RoganJosh (I assume)
Narrow Biden Win - Flash
Narrow Trump Win - President Eden

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#20 Post by flash2015 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:59 pm

I forgot:

Narrow Biden Win - New England Firing Squad

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