Electoral College predictions (among others)

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RoganJosh
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#21 Post by RoganJosh » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:02 pm

Ah, yeah, Underdog was the wrong word. Let me use outsider instead. Point being: outsider parties with racist undertones often have shy voters, until they're not outsiders anymore. And the President is definitely not an outsider.

Add the effect that all pollsters have modified their models to not make the same error as the last time. (As they always do.) It's much more reasonable to expect a polling error in Biden's favor.

We're talking about systemic errors here, those that are big enough to make all polls for the last six months be wrong.

There is no such thing as a narrow Biden win in this election. It's either a blowout or a court case. In the latter scenario, it's a question of whether Trump manages to delay the counting of mail in ballots until after the electoral college meets, using whatever means.
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flash2015
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#22 Post by flash2015 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:40 pm

I am surprised no one has gone with the "civil war" prediction yet... :P

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#23 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:59 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:23 pm
Octavious wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am
Your point was not clear, made even less so by apparently describing the chap who has been struggling in the polls for 4 years as somehow not the underdog. That Trump is the underdog in this election is one of the few certainties there is :razz:.

Regardless, there are a huge number of reasons for Trump supporters to be reluctant to declare their intentions before the freedom of the ballot box. There are a fair few reasons for Biden supporters to act the same way, for that matter.
Are you game to make a prediction then? Here is my understanding of the predictions so far:

Big Biden Win - Matticus, RoganJosh (I assume)
Narrow Biden Win - Flash
Narrow Trump Win - President Eden
God, no. I try to only make predictions when I'm fairly confident of what will happen. I haven't the foggiest idea what will come out of this mess. I can't even say with confidence that the chap elected will live long enough to make his inauguration :razz:

If forced, I'd probably go with the bookies, who have Biden as a clear but not overwhelming favourite. But again, I'm not saying that with any confidence.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#24 Post by Matticus13 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:40 pm
I am surprised no one has gone with the "civil war" prediction yet... :P
NEFS basically did at 270-268. Trump would lose his mind.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#25 Post by orathaic » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:36 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:59 pm
I forgot:

Narrow Biden Win - New England Firing Squad
You're missing my, too close to call. Several states with court cases over which votes should be counted and violence in the streets.

But falling short of civil war. I suspect however a Trump reelection will push Calexit. California leaving the Union within 20 years.

A Biden win, I am predicting will result in statehood for Puerto Rico.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#26 Post by brainbomb » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:42 pm

Lol
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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#27 Post by TrPrado » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:50 am

Matticus13 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:40 pm
I am surprised no one has gone with the "civil war" prediction yet... :P
NEFS basically did at 270-268. Trump would lose his mind.
Oh that's a rooky attempt. Let's take Eden's map and flip Arizona and Michigan, that brings us to 269-269. From there, literally any result would be rather chaotic.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#28 Post by Randomizer » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:14 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:40 pm
I am surprised no one has gone with the "civil war" prediction yet... :P
Businesses are boarding up windows in anticipation.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#29 Post by President Eden » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:20 pm

TrPrado wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:50 am
Matticus13 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:40 pm
I am surprised no one has gone with the "civil war" prediction yet... :P
NEFS basically did at 270-268. Trump would lose his mind.
Oh that's a rooky attempt. Let's take Eden's map and flip Arizona and Michigan, that brings us to 269-269. From there, literally any result would be rather chaotic.
Fun fact - according to 12th Amendment procedure, in this situation the House of Representatives would decide the election... but the voting would be done on a per-state basis. That is, all the Californian reps would get together and collectively cast one vote (for Biden), and all... one of the Wyoming reps would sit in his chair in the back corner and think before remembering he's a Republican and voting for Trump.

While it's true that House elections are also happening, which could change this up, it seems almost a foregone conclusion as of this morning that Democrats will keep the House. But, on a per state basis, Republicans actually control more states in the house. So you would have a Pelosi-led, Democratic-majority House voting to put Trump in the White House because of arcane rules from ~200 years ago that literally haven't been relevant since Andrew Jackson was running for office.

There are multiple plausible paths to 269-269 that end with this result. This will be one of the messier and more chaotic elections any of us will see, that's a certainty.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#30 Post by TrPrado » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:57 pm

President Eden wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:20 pm
TrPrado wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:50 am
Matticus13 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm


NEFS basically did at 270-268. Trump would lose his mind.
Oh that's a rooky attempt. Let's take Eden's map and flip Arizona and Michigan, that brings us to 269-269. From there, literally any result would be rather chaotic.
Fun fact - according to 12th Amendment procedure, in this situation the House of Representatives would decide the election... but the voting would be done on a per-state basis. That is, all the Californian reps would get together and collectively cast one vote (for Biden), and all... one of the Wyoming reps would sit in his chair in the back corner and think before remembering he's a Republican and voting for Trump.

While it's true that House elections are also happening, which could change this up, it seems almost a foregone conclusion as of this morning that Democrats will keep the House. But, on a per state basis, Republicans actually control more states in the house. So you would have a Pelosi-led, Democratic-majority House voting to put Trump in the White House because of arcane rules from ~200 years ago that literally haven't been relevant since Andrew Jackson was running for office.

There are multiple plausible paths to 269-269 that end with this result. This will be one of the messier and more chaotic elections any of us will see, that's a certainty.
There's also the lingering possibility of faithless electors, whose lives would become quite hellish were they to be the person who single handedly swung an election in either direction

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#31 Post by Randomizer » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:55 pm

The Supreme Court this year dealt with the problem of faithless electors.

Now with 1% of the vote for a New England state, Yahoo News is calling it for that state. :)

This reminds me of a 1980 editorial cartoon after that election where a reporter asks a senator about his vote on an upcoming issue. After getting a reply, he goes, "With 1% of the vote …."

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#32 Post by Jamiet99uk » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:58 pm

The USA is not a democracy. The Electoral College system is a complete joke.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#33 Post by Matticus13 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:39 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:58 pm
The USA is not a democracy. The Electoral College system is a complete joke.
The US is still a representative democracy, despite the Electoral College's shortcomings. If we are going to keep it, we certainly need to update the system.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#34 Post by President Eden » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:52 am

I should have asked earlier: were the predictions for Election Night? (BE HONEST) Mine was, on the basis that once these cases inevitably hit the courts, no one can really predict how it'll break.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#35 Post by Matticus13 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:57 am

New England Fire Squad wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:31 am

Biden 270, Trump 268. Biden flips WI, MI, AZ and Nebraska’s Omaha district for the win. Trump holds on to PA and everything else, making everyone think he’s won until AZ breaks late. AZ doesn’t declare for weeks.
This is going to be the closest prediction. Pennsylvania will be close, but Biden appears to have AZ in the bag.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#36 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:57 am

Oh didn't know we were doing predictions here. Here's my prediction that I made for various RL bets with friends on the 30th: https://imgur.com/a/5oLqx5J

Looking pretty good though I should have swapped NC and GA in hindsight (though no way I make that call before the election)

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#37 Post by New England Fire Squad » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:59 am

Matticus13 wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:57 am
New England Fire Squad wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:31 am

Biden 270, Trump 268. Biden flips WI, MI, AZ and Nebraska’s Omaha district for the win. Trump holds on to PA and everything else, making everyone think he’s won until AZ breaks late. AZ doesn’t declare for weeks.
This is going to be the closest prediction. Pennsylvania will be close, but Biden appears to have AZ in the bag.
AZ is closing fast on DDHQ. I think it's going to be really close.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#38 Post by New England Fire Squad » Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:02 am

TheFlyingBoat wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:57 am
Oh didn't know we were doing predictions here. Here's my prediction that I made for various RL bets with friends on the 30th: https://imgur.com/a/5oLqx5J

Looking pretty good though I should have swapped NC and GA in hindsight (though no way I make that call before the election)
Could end up being right. Trump has exceeded his raw votes in PA already; I'm not bullish on that one at all.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#39 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:27 pm

New England Fire Squad wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:02 am
TheFlyingBoat wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:57 am
Oh didn't know we were doing predictions here. Here's my prediction that I made for various RL bets with friends on the 30th: https://imgur.com/a/5oLqx5J

Looking pretty good though I should have swapped NC and GA in hindsight (though no way I make that call before the election)
Could end up being right. Trump has exceeded his raw votes in PA already; I'm not bullish on that one at all.
1.4 million votes to count that break 78-22 Democratic. Should be enough to catch.

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Re: Electoral College predictions (among others)

#40 Post by flash2015 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:37 pm

Matticus13 wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:57 am
New England Fire Squad wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:31 am

Biden 270, Trump 268. Biden flips WI, MI, AZ and Nebraska’s Omaha district for the win. Trump holds on to PA and everything else, making everyone think he’s won until AZ breaks late. AZ doesn’t declare for weeks.
This is going to be the closest prediction. Pennsylvania will be close, but Biden appears to have AZ in the bag.
I don't know. I think I am pretty close too.

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