Lepanto II

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Octavious
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Lepanto II

#1 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:22 pm

So, apparently the Premier of Turkey ordered his military to sink a Greek ship...

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plu ... nland.html

Fortunately the Turkish military has not yet been purged of all its wise heads and, whilst they no longer have the backbone required to to frogmarch Erdoğan back into the ditch he crawled out of, they at least have courage enough to tell him not to be a complete madman.

One wonders how the shape of alliances work in the region. NATO, to my knowledge, has never been tested by a scenario where it has essentially attacked itself. One imagines that the EU will stand solidly behind Greece (which, militarily speaking, is little more than France) and it's hard to imagine the UK and US not taking a hard line if Turkey is the aggressor. Does Turkey have many friends in the region? Russia is a long way from being a Turkish backer, yet Turkey seems to be acting as if it's in a position of strength.

orathaic
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Re: Lepanto II

#2 Post by orathaic » Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:04 pm

6 France France 50.1
7 Germany Germany 49.3
8 (United Kingdom United Kingdom 48.7)
...
12 Italy Italy 26.8

According to this, Italy and Germany have greater combined military spending and than France... Not sure where the rest of the EU is, as the list I found only included the top 15.

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Re: Lepanto II

#3 Post by Randomizer » Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:11 pm

It depends on whether Trump is still president, since he supports fellow strongman Erdogan. He's been backing Turkey's aggression against the Kurds and even turning a blind eye to them attacking protestors in the US outside their embassy.

Russia would probably help Turkey to pull it away from NATO since Turkey is helping them in Syria and controls their access through Istanbul for their southern port.

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Re: Lepanto II

#4 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:25 pm

orathaic wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:04 pm
6 France France 50.1
7 Germany Germany 49.3
8 (United Kingdom United Kingdom 48.7)
...
12 Italy Italy 26.8

According to this, Italy and Germany have greater combined military spending and than France... Not sure where the rest of the EU is, as the list I found only included the top 15.
Could you post this again, only making sense?

Germany Germany France France and than?

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Re: Lepanto II

#5 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:29 pm

I'm also not sure what Octavious's reference to France is supposed to mean. It is worded like some kind of insult. France has a relatively powerful military, certainly more powerful than Turkey's and also much more powerful than the forces of Greece. I am not sure what point Octavious was trying to make there.

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Re: Lepanto II

#6 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:32 pm

As for the article Octavious links to, it is behind a paywall and I cannot find any other news sources reporting this story?

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Re: Lepanto II

#7 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:39 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:29 pm
I'm also not sure what Octavious's reference to France is supposed to mean. It is worded like some kind of insult. France has a relatively powerful military, certainly more powerful than Turkey's and also much more powerful than the forces of Greece. I am not sure what point Octavious was trying to make there.
What’s worded like an insult? You do enjoy reading meaning that isn't there. France is well known for being the only European Union military (now that the UK has left) that's of any significance from a non defensive point of view. Germany could be, and should be, but choose not to. The others are a bit of a joke.

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Re: Lepanto II

#8 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:51 pm

orathaic wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:04 pm
6 France France 50.1
7 Germany Germany 49.3
8 (United Kingdom United Kingdom 48.7)
...
12 Italy Italy 26.8

According to this, Italy and Germany have greater combined military spending and than France... Not sure where the rest of the EU is, as the list I found only included the top 15.
Military spending is not a great measure of military capability. Germany still hides from any role that isn't protecting Germany, and most European spending is on purely defensive equipment.

Turkey's armed forces are really quite impressive. An awful lot of decent fighter aircraft provided by the Yanks, and a land army that dwarfs any EU nation.

I'd say that the EU could easily swat away any attempt at a Turkish invasion of Greece, say, but if Turkey were to strong arm its way into EU controlled waters and oil fields around Cyprus, would the EU have the strength to give Turkey a military bloody nose that would force them back? I'm genuinely not sure.

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Re: Lepanto II

#9 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:06 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:39 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:29 pm
I'm also not sure what Octavious's reference to France is supposed to mean. It is worded like some kind of insult. France has a relatively powerful military, certainly more powerful than Turkey's and also much more powerful than the forces of Greece. I am not sure what point Octavious was trying to make there.
What’s worded like an insult? You do enjoy reading meaning that isn't there. France is well known for being the only European Union military (now that the UK has left) that's of any significance from a non defensive point of view. Germany could be, and should be, but choose not to. The others are a bit of a joke.
Then why did you say Greece "is little more than France"?

Greece has much less military strength than France.

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Re: Lepanto II

#10 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:14 pm

Eh? Ah, I see. My meaning was that the EU's military was little more than France. I can see how you could have taken it the other way (clarity was lost in the editing), but surely the context makes it obvious?

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Re: Lepanto II

#11 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:22 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:14 pm
Eh? Ah, I see. My meaning was that the EU's military was little more than France. I can see how you could have taken it the other way (clarity was lost in the editing), but surely the context makes it obvious?
Ok, well France is certainly the strongest military power in the EU, yes. I would not like to see a full-scale armed conflict between France and Turkey but I am fairly confident that France would win it.

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Re: Lepanto II

#12 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:43 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:22 pm
Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:14 pm
Eh? Ah, I see. My meaning was that the EU's military was little more than France. I can see how you could have taken it the other way (clarity was lost in the editing), but surely the context makes it obvious?
Ok, well France is certainly the strongest military power in the EU, yes. I would not like to see a full-scale armed conflict between France and Turkey but I am fairly confident that France would win it.
Much like you'd have been confident in France and the UK beating Egypt in the Suez crisis?

I think it would be heavily dependent on the nature of the engagement. Would France be able to force a regime change in Turkey, for example? I would doubt it. Turkey has a far larger army and comparable air force.

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Re: Lepanto II

#13 Post by flash2015 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:15 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:32 pm
As for the article Octavious links to, it is behind a paywall and I cannot find any other news sources reporting this story?
I looked for other stories on this which we can access. Rather than actually sinking a ship, Erdogan only asked his generals to sink a ship but they refused:

https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/0 ... reek-ship/
https://www.thenationalherald.com/greec ... hs-795655/

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Re: Lepanto II

#14 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:35 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:15 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:32 pm
As for the article Octavious links to, it is behind a paywall and I cannot find any other news sources reporting this story?
I looked for other stories on this which we can access. Rather than actually sinking a ship, Erdogan only asked his generals to sink a ship but they refused:

https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/0 ... reek-ship/
https://www.thenationalherald.com/greec ... hs-795655/
So exactly what I said in the opening post, then?

And you have provided two articles whose story is the article I posted? Erm... thanks, I guess.

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Re: Lepanto II

#15 Post by flash2015 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:49 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:35 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:15 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:32 pm
As for the article Octavious links to, it is behind a paywall and I cannot find any other news sources reporting this story?
I looked for other stories on this which we can access. Rather than actually sinking a ship, Erdogan only asked his generals to sink a ship but they refused:

https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/0 ... reek-ship/
https://www.thenationalherald.com/greec ... hs-795655/
So exactly what I said in the opening post, then?

And you have provided two articles whose story is the article I posted? Erm... thanks, I guess.
Did you not bother to read the part where he said that the article you linked to was behind a paywall? Due to the paywall, I couldn't access your initial link either. I don't know about you...but I thought it may be useful to actually provide some links that people can actually access.
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Re: Lepanto II

#16 Post by Matticus13 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:03 pm

War would be an absolute disaster for NATO. Turkey is a critical piece of the defense of Europe from Russian aggression. That's plenty of leverage. Putin is closing in on Belarus. Europe is running out of buffer states. Erdogan is going to get Turkey's share of *Freedom fuel* or else.

Does NATO call Turkey's bluff and risk a sudden warming of relations with Russia/China? I bet they cave, eventually (whether Greece likes it or not).
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Re: Lepanto II

#17 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:12 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:49 pm
Did you not bother to read the part where he said that the article you linked to was behind a paywall? Due to the paywall, I couldn't access your initial link either. I don't know about you...but I thought it may be useful to actually provide some links that people can actually access.
You've never been concerned about the paywalls from ora's economist articles :smirk:. Your bias is ever more obvious, flash. Still, my thanks for confirming the accuracy of my opening post, regardless of how irritably you have done so ;)

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Re: Lepanto II

#18 Post by flash2015 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:25 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:12 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:49 pm
Did you not bother to read the part where he said that the article you linked to was behind a paywall? Due to the paywall, I couldn't access your initial link either. I don't know about you...but I thought it may be useful to actually provide some links that people can actually access.
You've never been concerned about the paywalls from ora's economist articles :smirk:. Your bias is ever more obvious, flash. Still, my thanks for confirming the accuracy of my opening post, regardless of how irritably you have done so ;)
Have you lost it? This was the last economist article which orathaic posted. It has no paywall (I am also a subscriber anyway but I am not logged in currently):

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... o-the-king

I was actually happy you created a thread without trying to troll for once...but once again it seems you can't help yourself.

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Re: Lepanto II

#19 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:25 am

Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:43 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:22 pm
Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:14 pm
Eh? Ah, I see. My meaning was that the EU's military was little more than France. I can see how you could have taken it the other way (clarity was lost in the editing), but surely the context makes it obvious?
Ok, well France is certainly the strongest military power in the EU, yes. I would not like to see a full-scale armed conflict between France and Turkey but I am fairly confident that France would win it.
Much like you'd have been confident in France and the UK beating Egypt in the Suez crisis?

I think it would be heavily dependent on the nature of the engagement. Would France be able to force a regime change in Turkey, for example? I would doubt it. Turkey has a far larger army and comparable air force.
Could the Turkish army force a regime change in France? I would doubt it.

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Re: Lepanto II

#20 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:07 am

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:25 am
Could the Turkish army force a regime change in France? I would doubt it.
Obviously not, as the French have nukes. But that only rules out a highly improbable fantasy scenario. In a scenario in which Turkey decides to unilaterally ignore Greece's recognised territorial waters and fills them with drill ships and a military escort (kind of like what's happening), what can Europe actually do? If Erdoğan had achieved his wish and sunk a Greek ship, how would Europe be able to respond?

It seems painfully clear that if the positions of Europe and the USA were swapped, there's not a chance in hell that Turkey would consider similar tactics against the Yanks.

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