US authoritarianism

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RoganJosh
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Re: US authoritarianism

#61 Post by RoganJosh » Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:20 am

Octavious wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:25 pm
I couldn't care less what Trump's team are actually claiming. My understanding is that there are a vast array of differing lawsuits, the details of which interest me not at all.
I'm sorry, it's just so obvious that you're not paying attention. I have no clue why you're writing in this thread at all, taken your lack of interest.

Btw, today, the speaker of the Michigan HoR was on TV discussing possible paths for the Michigan republican legislature to overturn the result of the election, by deliberately pushing Michigan into a constitutional crisis. They will probably fail in their efforts. But even if they fail, it's not business as usual.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#62 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:33 am

I have interest in the outcome, not the process. Frankly business as usual seems by far the most likely result. The last half decade has been an endless stream of excitable predictions about Trump that have largely not been realised. I see no reason to suspect anything else this time.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#63 Post by orathaic » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:29 am

Here is the issue Oct, by refusing to concede Trump undermines the legitimacy of the election. Either 1 of 2 things can happen. He succeeds in overturning Biden's election (unlikely, but he's still trying) or he fails.

In the first case, the millions of Biden voters become disillusioned, they protest in the streets and are violently repressed by the police/federal law enforcement as we have already seen used against BLM this tear. Just more of the same except amplified by at least a factor of 10.

Some of those protestor decide that peaceful protest isn't enough and start planning violent attacks against federal targets. The end result is bad no matter what happens.

The other situation is that Trump fails but out of the 70 million people who voted for him several decide that they will protest (with guns) in their state capitals, attacks will happen, politicians will be threatened, and again a spiral into violence is inevitable. Made worse by the fact that many white supremacist militias and local police forces are sympathetic to each other (and sometimes the same people). The federal law enforcement who hate Trump and the local law enforcement who love him on opposite sides will not end well.

In the latter case, do you really think the democratic party is capable of unifying the country in the face of such violence (having failed to win a majority in the senate and lost seats in the house...) they need senior republicans to support them. Unfortunately that isn't happening.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#64 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:56 am

Ok, let's take scenario 1 first. Trump is found to be the rightful winner by the legal system. In that case he is the rightful winner and should be President and any violent protesters (or, as they are more correctly named, criminals) should be dealt with by the law.

Scenario 2, aside from being infinitely more likely, is no different. If Trump fails then Biden is the rightful winner and should be President. Any violent protesters (criminals) should be dealt with by the law.

As left wing protest groups have been pretty violent all year it seems unlikely that the violence will stop, but I do not envision anything orders of magnitude over what we're used to. Mind you, "not ending well" is a pretty vague prediction, and the word violence can mean anything from a rude word to full scale war. Are you able to flesh it out a little more?

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Re: US authoritarianism

#65 Post by orathaic » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:38 pm

Octavious wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:56 am
Ok, let's take scenario 1 first. Trump is found to be the rightful winner by the legal system.
Clearly you are not paying attention. That is not the scenario, no amount of legal challenges will be enough to overturn this vote. This is why Trump is now trying to pressure the state to no certify the vote. If the electoral college doesn't have authority to elect the new president, then the legal process is for the States to pick, and at present, a majority of states lean republican.

This is essentially setting aside the vote. The Message is 'we don' t like the way people voted, so we are using a different method to select the president'.

It violates the social contract, and will be seen as a coup. Whether you support the authority of the Trump campaign to do it or not is irrelevant. Your opinion is not counted.

Scenario 2, aside from being infinitely more likely, is no different. If Trump fails then Biden is the rightful winner and should be President. Any violent protesters (criminals) should be dealt with by the law.

As left wing protest groups have been pretty violent all year it seems unlikely that the violence will stop, but I do not envision anything orders of magnitude over what we're used to. Mind you, "not ending well" is a pretty vague prediction, and the word violence can mean anything from a rude word to full scale war. Are you able to flesh it out a little more?
Any 'violent protesters' have already been demonstrated to be treated differently by the state when they are White. We've seen them occupy federal buildings and not be shot and removed, while at the same time seeing protestor on reservations trying to block the destruction of their land.

The problem is when local law enforcement (already filled with authoritarian white folks, and demonstrated to treat White Supremacist armed protesters differently) side with the protest.

The become a civil war. And the reason is Trump refusing to act in the interest of the country.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#66 Post by orathaic » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:45 pm

As for what 'violence' means.

We will see shootings, we may see bombings (like the Oklahoma city bombing), we are likely to see lynching. If Trump loses worst case is militias and local law enforcement fighting federal troops.

If Trump wins, more of the same violence that we have already seen with violent crack down from un-named federal law enforcement, (no badges, no identifiers, no way to hold them accountable), but it will escalate, and State national guards may be called in (in Democratic states) to protect legitimate legal protests from federal violence.

None of this is unprecedented. A lot of this is worst case scenario. The Republican party needs to take a stand in favour of respecting the election result.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#67 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:00 pm

Oh, for God's sake. You have well and truly signed yourself up to the tinfoil hat brigade. Biden will be President, there will be no civil war. There will be shooting because it's America and there's always shooting, but the worst case is the lunatic who was always going to go on a murder spree alters the content of his suicide note.

If you want to continue creating disaster porn with your like minded tinfoilites, then by all means do so. I will waste no more time on your nonsense.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#68 Post by taylor4 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:46 pm

:?: @orathaic: This just in: The Republican national committee (RNC) chairman calls on the state of Michigan not to certify the vote.
@Octavious: "Come the Revolution, all you'll need is a horse and a gun." Who said that back in the 70s?
2

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Re: US authoritarianism

#69 Post by orathaic » Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:50 pm

It is not porn. Warning now to prevent the worst cases is driven only by a desire to see peace prevail.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#70 Post by flash2015 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:17 pm

Good riddance then @Oct. You are obviously not paying attention to what is actually going on in the US or you are just trolling...or both.

Until Trump decides to tone down the rhetoric and accept the result, civil unrest is a legitimate concern.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#71 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:07 pm

orathaic wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:50 pm
It is not porn. Warning now to prevent the worst cases is driven only by a desire to see peace prevail.
Absolutely, just as I warned the chaps down the pub of the risk of the sky falling and by doing so helped prevent it happen. You're welcome

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Re: US authoritarianism

#72 Post by Octavious » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:09 pm

taylor4 wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:46 pm
@Octavious: "Come the Revolution, all you'll need is a horse and a gun." Who said that back in the 70s?
Was it the union of American horse traders?

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Re: US authoritarianism

#73 Post by orathaic » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:54 pm

Can I just add, civil unrest, political violence and successions crises has been the norm historically for thousands of years. Except when strong democratic institutions provide confidence in the new leader (or continue the rule of the old). Trump is undermining this confidence.

If Oct can't accept this simple premise, there is no point in continuing to engage with him.

It seems the rest of the Republican party is slowly accepting his loss, and moving on.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#74 Post by Octavious » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:27 pm

In what sense do you think I approve of Trump's actions? It is the political equivalent of diving in the penalty box when you've brushed the leg hairs of a defender. It has the potential to give you an advantage, the potential to get you in trouble, and damages the game either way.

What I am disagreeing with you with completely and utterly is your view that American institutions are so weak they are at risk of imminent collapse because of it. This is a complete nonsense and utterly delusional. What we have is the acid rain that, left unchecked, will leave the monuments of power look increasingly ugly as the years pass. There is no danger of collapse, and no reason at all they can't be restored to their former glory.

Trump has farted in the palaces of the mighty and will spend the next four years pointing out the smell and blaming it on Biden in the hope that he or his chosen successor will be elected to freshen things up. That's what all this nonsense has been about. There was never any danger of a coup or any realistic hope of overturning the result.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#75 Post by Randomizer » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:34 pm

Trump is acting out as a fascist demanding his followers keep pushing for a mulligan like in golf to change the voting results into his favor. Some of the Republican party are supporting that effort including throwing out votes until they get the result they want from in Pennsylvania not counting the presidential votes, but accepting everything else to throwing out all mail in ballots.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trump-a ... 30535.html

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Re: US authoritarianism

#76 Post by orathaic » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:44 pm

In what sense do you think I approve of Trump's actions?
Didn't you say, 'no actually undermining democracy is good because the courts will be believed' (I'm paraphrasing of course)

While you ignored the fact that Trump was not only using the Courts but also leaning of every other official he could find..

Latest news article seem to suggest only 3% of Trump voters belief that Biden's election was legitimate.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#77 Post by Octavious » Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:44 am

orathaic wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:44 pm
Didn't you say, 'no actually undermining democracy is good because the courts will be believed' (I'm paraphrasing of course)
Nope. You have invented that particular nugget because it fits in with your narrative. You have been doing this a lot lately.

I have said that it is within Trump's rights to challenge the results, because it is. I have said that where such challenges exist I find the fact that American justice system will consider said challenges fairly and without prejudice before deciding whether they carry any weight reassuring, because I do. I see nothing remarkable about this. A world in which Trump makes a load of claims which are simply ignored by the system seems to me infinitely more dangerous than one in which those claims are considered and either accepted or dismissed based on the evidence or lack thereof.

I have never said I think Trump's actions are good. Still, feel free to keeping inventing and believing whatever you wish.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#78 Post by RoganJosh » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:08 am

Oct, you're ignoring that the main points Trump's lawsuits where
1) to run down the clock
2) to convince republican voters that there was fraud
It was never about winning the court cases, nor was it ever about presenting credible evidence. This was a campaign to put pressure on *Republican* election officials to break the law. This time, only a few succumbed to that pressure. But those that refused to obey Trump are now pariah in the republican party.
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Re: US authoritarianism

#79 Post by Octavious » Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:08 am

I disagree with point 1, or I don't understand it. What is the purpose of running down the clock? Point 2, rather than being ignored, is a point I have been making. What exactly did you suppose my comment about Trump farting in the palaces of the mighty and blaming Biden referred to? My entire argument has been that this is about the election in 4 years time and has very little to do with winning court cases and has nothing to do with a coup. A large number of citizens who consider Biden to be illegitimate will make Biden's life a lot harder, in much the same way as the many millions who saw Trump's win as illegitimate made life difficult for Trump.

Whether it is about winning the cases or not is, however, immaterial. The right to make such a challenge has to exist if there are reasonable grounds for suspicion, and it is hard to argue that there aren't reasonable grounds for suspicion when the election has been so unusual. A better man would not have taken the actions Trump has taken, but it would be a far inferior system that put barriers in the way of such actions.

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Re: US authoritarianism

#80 Post by RoganJosh » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:18 pm

Octavious wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:08 am
I disagree with point 1, or I don't understand it.
Yeah, as I said before, you're not paying attention.

At first, Trump tried to delay the counting of the votes. At the moment, he's trying to delay the certification of the vote counts. Well, it should be pointed out that as of Monday, this attempt officially failed.

The Electoral College meets on December 14, and the question was, what would happen if there were no certified results by that day. And, just to be clear, the Bush vs Gore precedent is that the meeting of the Electoral College will not be postponed.

One option touted by republicans is that in lack of a certified vote, the task of choosing electors would fall to the state legislature. This is probably false, but there is no precedent. MI, PA, WI, and GA all have republican state legislatures.

Why is it described as an attempted coup? The certification of the vote is supposed to be a formality, and any audits are supposed to happen after the certification. In fact, in order to delay the certification, republicans on different levels need to break local election laws. And that's what point 2) was all about: put pressure on, and give a justification for, republican representatives breaking local election laws. This is not a hypothetical, it has already happened, but only on county level.

Just to be clear: Trump has been suing to delay certifications, demanding audits. But most states laws only allows for audits to take place after the certification. Republican voters who, just like you, assume that Trump is only enjoying his legal right to challenge in court, ends up supporting delaying the certifications. That's despite the fact that delaying the certifications would violate local election laws. That's where we've been for the last two weeks: vociferous republican voters demanding that local republican officials violate the election laws, in order to overturn the result of the election. That's an attempted coup.

On state level, the local republican officials did not succumb. However, those local republican officials are now pariah in the republican party. It is clear that they are soon to be replaced with more 'loyal' officials, as the MAGA faithful demands.
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