Oil prices!

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orathaic
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Oil prices!

#1 Post by orathaic » Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:10 pm

So as you may have heard Oil prices temporarily went negative recently (see also: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52350082). What they don't say is how futures are traded on based on future production and expected storage costs...

But also how difficult it is to shutdown production and the large capital costs of restarting if a well is shutdown. These issues are discussed in brief here: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 53756.html

Wherein one expert questions if oil production will ever return if they shutdown. While another bemoans the fact that alternative energy sources had nearly reached parity with oil, and thus this massive drop in price (if sustained) will harm investment in renewables.

Personally I'd be happy to see a continuation of the massive reduction in total consumption (while essentials stay open) for at least long enough to transition away from fossil fuels entirely. But I know there is no-where near the required public support for such a plan.

That said, thousands of life's saved in Wuhan from improved air quality is still a win for the environment.

taylor4
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Re: Oil prices!

#2 Post by taylor4 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:45 pm

Oil went negative on Asian markets last night

Octavious
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Re: Oil prices!

#3 Post by Octavious » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:23 pm

I had a friend post the following a few days back :razz:. Not one of theirs, but one that fell into their radar that they quite liked.

"For those of you who don't understand why WTI Crude Oil is traded at minus -$37.

Imagine the following...

You pay $500 today and commit to receive an escort at your house in 15 days. Cos your wife is traveling. This is called a futures contract.

Unfortunately, lockdown came and your wife will be home for the next 60 days.

You do not want this woman to show up at your house at all and try to pass this futures contract to someone else.

But you are unable to sell this commitment because none of your friends can receive the escort in their house. Everyone is in full storage (their balls) with wife.

To make matters worse, not even the pimp (Chicago Mercantile exchange) has no more room to receive girls because his house is crowded with girls, no business due to the lockdown.

So you will pay anyone just to take the girl $37 to get off your hands.

Do you now understand why oil has a negative price when the contract is delivered?"

orathaic
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Re: Oil prices!

#4 Post by orathaic » Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:07 pm

Yeah, I think that gives a bit of understanding of how futures work.

But the supply vs demand curve where over supply is a problem because (for technical reasons) switching off an oil well incurs massive restart costs, so everyone keeps pumping EVEN if they have to pay someone to take it off their hands, because that is a smaller loss than shutting down production (gotta produce lots of oil to pay back the initial investment in getting a well started i guess).

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Re: Oil prices!

#5 Post by Crazy Anglican » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:04 pm

Hmm? How big is a barrel of oil? I guess I could take about 150 of 'em and store them in the basement for a while :-)

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Re: Oil prices!

#6 Post by Jamiet99uk » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:26 pm

I'm surprised President Trump hasn't started suggesting Covid-19 can be cured by ingesting crude oil.

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Re: Oil prices!

#7 Post by Octavious » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:29 pm

From my understanding of the industry (that comes purely from Mrs Oct who works in it) they're currently stacking rigs all over the place to save money. I believe that you can stop and restart a well, although it is quite expensive and the flow following the restart can be less vigorous. Surprisingly enough one of the biggest problems with stopping production is that it can bugger up the conditions of the lease for that particular block, and the oil company suddenly finds it doesn't have any right to drill there any more. Especially so in regions of Africa where the industry is ridiculously corrupt.
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taylor4
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Re: Oil prices!

#8 Post by taylor4 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:19 pm

Speaking of barrels: An ancient Roman oligarch bequeathed to his heir 10K barrels of wine.

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