Coronavirus

Any political discussion should go here. This subforum will be moderated differently than other forums.
Forum rules
1.) No personal threats.
2.) No doxxing/revealing personal information.
3.) No spam.
4.) No circumventing press restrictions.
5.) No racism, sexism, homophobia, or derogatory posts.
Post Reply
Message
Author
kaner406
Posts: 27
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:40 pm
Karma: 24

Coronavirus

#1 Post by kaner406 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:11 pm

Well, first confirmed case now in the state I live in. Anyone else out there getting a little jittery about this whole thing? I bought some facemasks on the weekend figuring that it was better to have them and not need them, than need them and not have them. Interested to hear people's thoughts.
1

Randomizer
Posts: 739
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Karma: 225

Re: Coronavirus

#2 Post by Randomizer » Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:21 pm

There was something about face masks not being useful this time, but I didn't read it. However I live about 100 miles from a confirmed case in the US at a large state university.

I'm waiting for Trump to put a tariff on Chinese imports of the flu.

orathaic
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 1299
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:20 pm
Karma: 325

Re: Coronavirus

#3 Post by orathaic » Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Is this really the right place to discuss public health?

No I'm not worried. The death rate is very low, the transmission rate seems very high.

We will see if measures in place will be sufficient to reduce that transmission rate to below 1 person per new infection.

Octavious
Posts: 3058
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Location: The Five Valleys, Gloucestershire
Karma: 2246
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus

#4 Post by Octavious » Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:14 pm

The only concern I have is that the actions of the Chinese government don't seem to align with their press releases regarding the spread and consequences of infection. Locking down a population the size a major European country and knocking up emergency hospitals like they're going out of fashion doesn't go hand in hand with a virus supposedly on a par with the common flu.

flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3127
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1122

Re: Coronavirus

#5 Post by flash2015 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:47 pm

There are some very worrying things that are coming out of this. For example, the incubation period of the virus is around 5 days (are you contagious during this period?)...and the death rate is currently around 3% (in comparison the death rate for Spanish flu in US/UK was about 2%, 10% worldwide).

Note that the number of deaths is currently about the same as the number of the people recovered (6165 infected, 133 deaths, 126 recovered) so it may suggest the real death rate could be significantly higher (i.e. perhaps it takes many days for mortality - the infected count has increased 10 fold in the last 7 days). And for most of these figures we are relying on the Chinese government being open and honest about what is going on.

Of course still too early to tell how bad it is going to get. I hope it doesn't turn out as bad as it may be looking. I hope we can stop this...or at least slow it down to allow time for a vaccine.

If you want to obsess a bit over it a live map of infections is here:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3127
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1122

Re: Coronavirus

#6 Post by flash2015 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:02 pm

The Chinese CDC website is also informative (just run in through Google Translate). Apparently the incubation period is 3 to 7 days (sometimes up to 14 days) and those infected ARE contagious during this period. As well as the 6095 confirmed cases in China, there are another 9K unconfirmed cases:

https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia? ... nstalled=0

e.m.c^42
Posts: 6320
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:00 pm
Location: Rated 0/5 Stars; ☆☆☆☆☆
Karma: 1726

Re: Coronavirus

#7 Post by e.m.c^42 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:39 pm

Well, considering I have portions of extended family quarantined and at least two sick with something currently undiagnosed yet, jittery is the least of it.

What's more concerning is that the news generally accessible here is, well, different from what is being relayed by them there. Not to mention, it's hard to parse what's real and what's 'shock factor' stuff being spread over social media.
2

orathaic
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 1299
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:20 pm
Karma: 325

Re: Coronavirus

#8 Post by orathaic » Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:39 pm

133 / 6165 ~ 2% fatalities, not 3%.
Plus those 9k unconfirmed cases may bring that number down to less than 1%.

But the distribution of those who died vs those who recovered is important. I don't see good data on that, but I suspect the deaths have been largely elderly, and those with respiratory complications (like other illnesses already weakening their respiratory system).

'Spanish' flu was unusual because it was mostly killing those with a stronger immune response (ie the health young adults) - I think because their strong immune response was what caused the death. So I don't think that is a great comparison. 20 million dead will be horrific. But I think that our containment measures will be better than 1918 - when several countries were falling over and millions of soldiers and refugees were relocating around the world.

Yes it is contagious during the incubation period. Yes this makes it much harder to detect and contain. No a vaccine isn't going to be available for months at the earliest. Still, I am rather optimistic.

flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3127
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1122

Re: Coronavirus

#9 Post by flash2015 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:17 am

orathaic wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:39 pm
133 / 6165 ~ 2% fatalities, not 3%.
Plus those 9k unconfirmed cases may bring that number down to less than 1%.
You are right (I went back to edit it to 2-3% but it was too late). But again that is likely an underestimate of the real death rate as the number of infected is increasing so quickly and it may be several days for it to turn out to be fatal (or not).

For example, the Chinese website had a story about an 80 year old man that contracted the disease early January, was admitted Jan 9, went critical Jan 19 (where he could have dired) but thankfully survived and was released from hospital just now.

To be explicit, if it for example takes 1 week to be fatal, and there were only 600 cases a week ago, then you could argue that the denominator should not be 600 but somewhere between 600 and 6000 which would give you a much higher death rate. Perhaps the unconfirmed cases are just due to delays in testing rather than being the newest cases and thus we can add them to the denominator...let's hope so.
But the distribution of those who died vs those who recovered is important. I don't see good data on that, but I suspect the deaths have been largely elderly, and those with respiratory complications (like other illnesses already weakening their respiratory system).
Probably...but too early to get a definitive answer yet.
'Spanish' flu was unusual because it was mostly killing those with a stronger immune response (ie the health young adults) - I think because their strong immune response was what caused the death. So I don't think that is a great comparison. 20 million dead will be horrific. But I think that our containment measures will be better than 1918 - when several countries were falling over and millions of soldiers and refugees were relocating around the world.
I made the comparison with the Spanish flu not to say it will be as bad as that, but to recognize that even if the death rate turns out to be only 2 percent that this is a BIG DEAL if the disease spreads. In comparison the death rate for your average flu season in the US is about 1/100th of that but still around 36K Americans die from flu each year even.
Yes it is contagious during the incubation period. Yes this makes it much harder to detect and contain. No a vaccine isn't going to be available for months at the earliest. Still, I am rather optimistic.
You are right that a vaccine is not going to come quickly. I am not saying that we shouldn't be optimistic, just that we shouldn't be dismissing the risk from this so quickly.

flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3127
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1122

Re: Coronavirus

#10 Post by flash2015 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:24 am

The Chinese website just updated again 6095 -> 7736 confirmed cases, 9K -> 12K unconfirmed, 133 -> 170 deaths

Fluminator
Posts: 4192
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:50 pm
Karma: 2897

Re: Coronavirus

#11 Post by Fluminator » Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:26 am

My sister lives in China and she says they're acting like it's the apocalpyse over there. It has potential to be bad, and it makes sense to do precautions. Far away from panic mode in most countries though.
1

e.m.c^42
Posts: 6320
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:00 pm
Location: Rated 0/5 Stars; ☆☆☆☆☆
Karma: 1726

Re: Coronavirus

#12 Post by e.m.c^42 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:46 am

Fluminator wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:26 am
My sister lives in China and she says they're acting like it's the apocalpyse over there. It has potential to be bad, and it makes sense to do precautions. Far away from panic mode in most countries though.
It's already kind of bad in the Wuhan area, lol. Hospitals are, well, overcrowded and supplies are short. Things are a lot harder if you don't have relatives or connections (or money, hah).

But yeah, internationally it probably won't be a concern, politics aside XD

orathaic
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 1299
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:20 pm
Karma: 325

Re: Coronavirus

#13 Post by orathaic » Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:20 am

Most patients who died were elderly or otherwise unwell, according to Chinese officials. But one recent victim was a 36-year-old man.
AFAIK this is accurate.

kaner406
Posts: 27
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:40 pm
Karma: 24

Re: Coronavirus

#14 Post by kaner406 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:49 am

A couple of days ago I found it really easy to find uncensored video coming out of China, now though there either isn't much of it, or it's footage that I've seen before. Couple that with 2 massive hospitals being built asap, and information coming out about it being contagious prior to symptoms showing makes me hesitant to just not worry about it (like I did when SARS was about). I'd be really interested to hear more from E=mc^42, about what he's heard from first hand relatives.
1

flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3127
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1122

Re: Coronavirus

#15 Post by flash2015 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:27 pm

I really think it is time for another "Be alert but not alarmed" fridge magnet... :P
1

orathaic
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 1299
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:20 pm
Karma: 325

Re: Coronavirus

#16 Post by orathaic » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:49 pm

https://twitter.com/jaythenerdkid/statu ... 56768?s=19
I think this is possible. How many deaths from measles?

e.m.c^42
Posts: 6320
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:00 pm
Location: Rated 0/5 Stars; ☆☆☆☆☆
Karma: 1726

Re: Coronavirus

#17 Post by e.m.c^42 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:14 pm

kaner406 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:49 am
A couple of days ago I found it really easy to find uncensored video coming out of China, now though there either isn't much of it, or it's footage that I've seen before. Couple that with 2 massive hospitals being built asap, and information coming out about it being contagious prior to symptoms showing makes me hesitant to just not worry about it (like I did when SARS was about). I'd be really interested to hear more from E=mc^42, about what he's heard from first hand relatives.
Ahh let's see. There's a lot of stuff floating about, so this might be a tad bit long and rambling, lol

This is about what I (and family) have parsed out so far:

flash2015
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 3127
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:55 pm
Location: Planet Earth
Karma: 1122

Re: Coronavirus

#18 Post by flash2015 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:17 pm

e.m.c^42 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:14 pm
kaner406 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:49 am
A couple of days ago I found it really easy to find uncensored video coming out of China, now though there either isn't much of it, or it's footage that I've seen before. Couple that with 2 massive hospitals being built asap, and information coming out about it being contagious prior to symptoms showing makes me hesitant to just not worry about it (like I did when SARS was about). I'd be really interested to hear more from E=mc^42, about what he's heard from first hand relatives.
Ahh let's see. There's a lot of stuff floating about, so this might be a tad bit long and rambling, lol

This is about what I (and family) have parsed out so far:
Oh no! It must be really getting bad now. e.m.c^42 succumbed before he could finish his message!!
1

e.m.c^42
Posts: 6320
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:00 pm
Location: Rated 0/5 Stars; ☆☆☆☆☆
Karma: 1726

Re: Coronavirus

#19 Post by e.m.c^42 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:21 pm

e.m.c^42 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:14 pm
This is about what I (and family) have parsed out so far:
So, first of all, the WeChat censors been really cracking down recently and banning accounts/numbers that spread certain types of information: i.e. infectee numbers, death toll, certain videos, etc... for the somewhat plausible reason of preventing mass hysteria with false information being spread. This tends to include group actual and false information as one, lmao

Usually it is like one of those "empty rules", where it's unenforced most of the time, but they're actually mass-disabling now. Of course, there are people who get around this as they have multiple numbers, so they can afford to post, get banned/disabled, switch and carry on. I and family outside of Wuhan can't afford to do this else we lose contact, so some parts of following may be iffy (will label it).

But to be fair, considering how with the censoring there is still a good amount of blatantly untrue (as in from a scientific perspective) 'facts' or other 'evidence' being passed around - as well as rumours. All of which unfortunately are easy for the less educated to believe, especially in the more rural areas.

Factor in the sheer population numbers, not entirely unwarranted.

However, the government is still controlling the flow of information pretty hard. The original (8?) people who reported on this (way back in December) got arrested for something like "inciting mass panic" or "spreading rumours", as were some others. It was only when it spread out of control that it became acknowledged by the government publicly lmao

I think they also booted this journalist yesterday(?) into the quarantine area after reporting videos/photos on site. Quite likely there is more but you get the idea.

e.m.c^42
Posts: 6320
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:00 pm
Location: Rated 0/5 Stars; ☆☆☆☆☆
Karma: 1726

Re: Coronavirus

#20 Post by e.m.c^42 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:22 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:17 pm
Oh no! It must be really getting bad now. e.m.c^42 succumbed before he could finish his message!!
Lmao. It is surprisingly hard to translate in certain ways.
1

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests