War, what is it good for?

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

.... I understand the sentiment...

That's really quite generous. Advocating genocide as a solution to genocide is unbelievably stupid. I share Jamie's outrage but continue to think he's being quite childish on this particular point.

[CaptainFritz28]

I don't mean that I agree with him, just that I understand what he means. But yes, that is important clarification.

[Jamiet99uk]

You have good reason to be. I'm just pointing out that you've said the same thing a multitude of times here, and so while I understand the sentiment, it doesn't mean anything to anyone else for you to say it once more. But if you just need to vent and this is your method of doing so, I get that.

Thank you.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Yikes, we looking at a war with Iran?

[CaptainFritz28]

Certainly an act of war from Israel. Good grief, tensions are high over there.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I figured this was my-lifetime problem, not a this year problem. Looks like de-escalation is going to be tough. I'm very struck by how much worse this could be than even Iraq in 2003 — Iran's forces almost twice as big as Iraq's was then, it's economy probably 10x or more.

[Octavious]

Israel was always going to strike if it felt like Iran was getting close to being a nuclear power. And it's clear from the evacuation of the Iraqi embassies prior to the attack that Israel had the courtesy to give America a heads up. It is unfortunate that the negotiations failed, but it is what it is.

Iran has been significantly weakened in recent years because of Israeli action against its influence in Gaza and Lebanon et al. It has also had a fair amount of its weapons stocks deplete by supplying the Ukraine war and shooting impotently at Israel. They are in a worse place to fight now than they have been for some time. As for how good their forces actually are... who can say? Hopefully we don't have to find out

[Jamiet99uk]

Netanyahu is a bloothirsty genocidal maniac and Trump is cheering him on.

An additional potential concern here is China. China is Iran's largest trading partner and supplies much of Iran's armaments as well as military training programmes. Not to mention China has been a vocal critic of Israel's actions in Gaza. Could a sustained Israel - Iran war draw China into the mix? You would assume not as China is pretty cautious. But still...

[Octavious]

Netanyahu is a bloothirsty genocidal maniac and Trump is cheering him on.

That's certainly one plausible interpretation of events. I've been trying to work out whether this or the idea that Netanyahu is acting without Trump's blessing concerns me more.

As for China, I can't see them taking major risks for the sake of Iran... But it's entirely possible that they are seeing recent events as a signal that they can get away with a more aggressive stance closer to home

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Netanyahu is a bloothirsty genocidal maniac and Trump is cheering him on.

That's certainly one plausible interpretation of events. I've been trying to work out whether this or the idea that Netanyahu is acting without Trump's blessing concerns me more.

Trump warned that if a deal wasn't made in 60 days (i.e., by early May) there could be military action against Iran. This was threatened, but maybe only in a bluffing manner? No doubt the US would have preferred to kick the can with yet another deal. The Bibi camp have always hated that approach, and despite their own evilness they're not necessarily wrong in this case — no deal was going to stop Iran from getting the bomb indefinitely.

Hard to tell at this point if Israel wants to knock out the nukes or to foment regime change — or maybe Bibi literally just thought now was a personally and politically convenient time for a war he's always thought was necessary.

[Octavious]

I think that if Israeli intelligence believes that regime change is achievable they will give it a go. Depends if there are hordes of discontents just waiting for the opportunity to rise up, and if there are convincing them that Israeli air strikes are more than a short term feature. Israel typically does its homework before acting so if they are going the regime change route we should see clear and obvious signs of rebellion in the near future. Although if this was the case publicly calling for it seems counter productive

[Jamiet99uk]

I think that if Israeli intelligence believes that regime change is achievable they will give it a go. Depends if there are hordes of discontents just waiting for the opportunity to rise up, and if there are convincing them that Israeli air strikes are more than a short term feature. Israel typically does its homework before acting so if they are going the regime change route we should see clear and obvious signs of rebellion in the near future. Although if this was the case publicly calling for it seems counter productive

If an uprising happens now, Iran's conservatives will be able to paint the rebels as Israel pawns, which is likely to reduce their public appeal a great deal.

[Octavious]

Indeed so. It very much depends on whether the perceived benefit of Israeli strikes weakening Iran's ability to crush rebellions outweighs the negative impact on public relations. Again, one assumes Israel has done its homework and has come to a conclusion.

One thing Israel is an expert on is gauging its unpopularity, so it's safe to assume that they won't overestimate their role as knights in shining armour

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

One thing Israel is an expert on is gauging its unpopularity, so it's safe to assume that they won't overestimate their role as knights in shining armour

It's not clear that some monolithic "Israel" is making these determinations and decisions. One gets the impression Bibi is making many choices here unilaterally and his track record is pretty abysmal.

[Octavious]

One thing Israel is an expert on is gauging its unpopularity, so it's safe to assume that they won't overestimate their role as knights in shining armour

It's not clear that some monolithic "Israel" is making these determinations and decisions. One gets the impression Bibi is making many choices here unilaterally and his track record is pretty abysmal.

In case there was some confusion I was referring to intelligence mechanisms of the Israeli state rather than whatever the Israeli version of Britannia is, or indeed Bibi peeking through eyeslit holes in a newspaper on a Tehran park bench. As it happens, if what I've read in the more reliable British newspapers is true, there is overwhelming public support for the action against Iran from the Israeli people. In this particular instance monolithic Israel may not be a bad description

[Jamiet99uk]

The big prize for both Israel and the US here is the elimination of Iran as a nuclear power and a threat to their dominance in the region.

The Israeli military will talk about taking out commanders and strategic targets but clearly their real aim is provocation. They wanted to provoke Iran into responding and they hope nobody will remember or care that Israel started this.

The objective for Israel, with the US standing by their side, no matter what Trump might say, is to draw the region, and western powers, into a wider war.

This has been made possible because over the last 20 months, governments of the world have been tested, and have stood by and done NOTHING while a genocide happened in Gaza. They’ve dutifully provided political cover, continued to supply weapons and ammo, and they’ve cracked down on opposition to the mass slaughter.

Keir Starmer lies about calling for ‘calm’ while mobilising British warplanes to defend Israel. He is one of the authors of this situation, and when push comes to shove, he and Trump will drag us all in to a wider war too. That’s what all the militarism, “defence” spending, “war footing” etc has all been about.

Everyone who has played a part in cheering that on is responsible too, putting our very existence and future generations in jeopardy.