War, what is it good for?

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orathaic
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#301 Post by orathaic » Wed Mar 08, 2023 7:48 am

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:42 pm


I am sure that if Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland were reduced to a blasted, irradiated wasteland due to total nuclear annihilation, the Republic of Ireland would be entirely undamaged.
While this may be valid, it clearly didn't know have the same impact on ppl in the Republic.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#302 Post by orathaic » Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:08 pm

So two things:
https://youtu.be/JCR-Phtgx0k

Can Ukraine win the war?

And
https://youtu.be/Ot65x9FLY-0

Is the US capable of continuing to support Ukraine with possible bank failures?

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#303 Post by Octavious » Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:53 pm

Win by retaking the Donbas and Crimea? Almost certainly not. And even if it could it would find itself fighting against not only the Russians but a civilian population that is pro-Russian, doesn't want anything to do with Ukraine, and is terrified of the new Ukrainian laws against collaboration which basically makes most of the adult population of these areas eligible for fifteen years in a Ukrainian gaol. A Ukraine victory won't resemble the allied liberation of Paris by any stretch of the imagination. You will see millions of refugees fleeing to Russia to escape the Western sponsored Ukrainian jackboot. Yay, the good guys.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#304 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:06 pm

The truth rears its ugly head

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... aid-price/



By
James Kilner
17 March 2023 • 5:11pm


The battalion commander, known by his call sign Kupol, gave an unusually frank assessment of Ukrainian losses in an interview from the front lines earlier this week.

He revealed that all of the original 500 soldiers in his unit had either been killed or injured, a rare acknowledgement from inside the Ukrainian ranks, where losses are kept strictly confidential.

The Ukrainian high command is at pains to present a positive spin on the increasingly bloody defence of the east of the country. US officials have estimated that the Ukrainian army may have taken 120,000 casualties compared with 200,000 by the Russian army.

Kupol told the Washington Post this week that the Ukrainian army training was often poor and that some of the rookie replacements didn’t know how to throw a hand grenade or fire a rifle.

Others had abandoned their positions shortly after arriving at the front line, he said.


“I get 100 new soldiers,” he said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need Nato instructors in all our training centres, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”

Kupol said what was left of his unit was also facing ammunition shortages.

“You’re on the front line,” he said. “They’re coming toward you, and there’s nothing to shoot with.”

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are being trained by the British Army and other Nato countries but thousands more receive more rudimentary training in Ukraine.

Kupol said that he had been motivated to speak out to try to improve training levels but furious Ukrainian generals instead demoted him. The Washington Post said he had consented to have his picture taken but admitted he could face “personal blowback” for his honest assessment.

Kupol told the Washington Post this week that the Ukrainian army training was often poor

Valentin Shevchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military, accused Kupol of “disseminating false information”. “The losses announced in the unit of which he had command are significantly overestimated,” she told Ukrainian media.

Shortly after his demotion, Kupol quit the Ukrainian army.

Within hours of his reassignment to a training camp, dozens of Ukrainian soldiers, politicians and journalists had voiced their support for the battalion commander.

“One of the armed forces finest commanders has just been removed,” Yuriy Butusov, a well-known Ukrainian war correspondent, wrote on Facebook.

“Instead of analysing mistakes that will defeat the Russian army, honest comments are suppressed and those who make them are punished.”

The leak on casualty numbers will be deeply embarrassing for the Ukrainian military which has diligently built up a narrative of its outnumbered but highly motivated and well-trained army taking on hordes of Russian soldiers and convicts.

It also undermines confidence in its much-talked-up counteroffensive planned for spring.

The attritional nature of the war in Ukraine has killed and injured hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Both sides have admitted that they are running out of artillery shells and ammunition.

Ukraine and Russia guard their casualty numbers closely, believing that they could undermine morale, although military commanders still hint at the high death tolls at their evening briefings when they boast of killing hundreds of enemy soldiers.

On Sunday, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said that Ukrainian forces had killed more than 1,100 Russian soldiers in the past week. Russia’s ministry of defence said that day that it had killed 220 Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours.

It is not possible to independently verify these numbers. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have also been killed.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#305 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:10 pm

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#306 Post by orathaic » Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:05 pm

As a fellow Irish leftist, i have to say i have been extremely dissappointed in Clare Daly this last year.

Wish she had stuck to national politics instead of going to Brussels.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#307 Post by orathaic » Sat Mar 18, 2023 12:06 am

Where a conservative blames Biden, Obama, and Bush for the War in Ukraine:
https://youtu.be/xeX_Stsp3ho

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#308 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 18, 2023 3:31 am

orathaic wrote:
Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:05 pm
As a fellow Irish leftist, i have to say i have been extremely dissappointed in Clare Daly this last year.

Wish she had stuck to national politics instead of going to Brussels.
Disappointed in what sense? She seems to be speaking her mind and she seems to care deeply about the subject. I'm sure that her point of view is representative of a large chunk of the European population. What's depressing is how under represented that view is. A Parliament where everyone sings from the same hymn sheet, when the people it represents do not, is dysfunctional
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#309 Post by orathaic » Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:35 am

Dissappointed in seeing her take the side of Imperialists in a war of aggression.

Anti-US/Western sentiment is something i agree with, but i can't see Ukraine the same way Putin does: ie a US conspiracy to undermine Russian security.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#310 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 18, 2023 2:27 pm

In fairness to her, when you come from a political background that paints pretty much everyone as an imperialist it becomes near impossible to not take the side of some of the imperialists in a major diplomatic spat.

As for US conspiracies, surely the US manoeuvring to maintain an advantage over Russia is a given? Regardless of the rights and wrongs of everything else, that much has been ever thus
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#311 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 18, 2023 3:56 pm

Whilst we're talking about propaganda and the unmasking of the painful reality of the situation in Ukraine behind the usual narrative that it is just Russia suffering from poor morale and sending poorly trained cannon fodder to the front, let's have a brief aside and have a look at the world of the internet meme.

I find it fascinating to see the same image being tailored for different target markets.

https://twitter.com/Dewik2013/status/16 ... X732A&s=19

https://twitter.com/inSdrc/status/16370 ... uc5Lg&s=19

In this case they are both clearly anti-NATO, with one aimed at France and the other North America.

I am just curious about what you think's going on here? Is it a coordinated effort from government funded propaganda teams, or just social media warriors taking an image they like and modifying it in a more organic way?
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#312 Post by Octavious » Wed Mar 22, 2023 2:29 pm

Good news, everyone!

We're now apparently supplying Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition, which will happily scatter this highly toxic heavy metal across Ukraine's green and pleasant land in the name of freedom! This will make a fine accompaniment to all the landmines and unexploded shells that were frankly getting a bit dull and hardly worth dying from.

Slava Ukraini!
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#313 Post by orathaic » Thu Mar 23, 2023 10:55 am

Octavious wrote:
Wed Mar 22, 2023 2:29 pm
Good news, everyone!

We're now apparently supplying Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition, which will happily scatter this highly toxic heavy metal across Ukraine's green and pleasant land in the name of freedom! This will make a fine accompaniment to all the landmines and unexploded shells that were frankly getting a bit dull and hardly worth dying from.

Slava Ukraini!
What is it you think is wrong with Depleted Uranium?

It is a fairly stable metal right? Amongst the most sense. And thus best at penetrating enemy armour.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#314 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:03 pm

It's very good at penetrating enemy armour, and every shot scatters the depleted uranium in a little cloud of extremely toxic dust. Probably fine in small doses, but where you get higher concentrations (say, at the site of a battle) you wouldn't be particularly well advised to drink water from the well any time soon.

And, politically speaking, it carries a hell of a lot of diplomatic baggage that massively outweighs the military benefits. We are sending this things almost certainly because our ammunition stockpiles are looking painfully shallow.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#315 Post by orathaic » Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:51 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:03 pm
It's very good at penetrating enemy armour, and every shot scatters the depleted uranium in a little cloud of extremely toxic dust. Probably fine in small doses, but where you get higher concentrations (say, at the site of a battle) you wouldn't be particularly well advised to drink water from the well any time soon.

And, politically speaking, it carries a hell of a lot of diplomatic baggage that massively outweighs the military benefits. We are sending this things almost certainly because our ammunition stockpiles are looking painfully shallow.
I'm not sure what the diplomatic cost is. The UK is already in a proxy war, and so far every single 'escalation' has been met with an impotent responce from Russia, maybe China could be convinced to increase their support, but given how the visit we t, I'm not convinced.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#316 Post by Octavious » Sun May 28, 2023 5:18 pm

A potentially pivotal day in war with the Turkish election. Quite an interesting battle between the final two Presidential candidates.

On the one hand you have the challenger, running on a campaign of a return to orthodox economic policies, abolishing Presidential superiority, pro-Western diplomacy, and (because the Turks refuse to make life simple) sending the Syrian refugees back to Syria.

On the other you have the continuity candidate, promising to keep using the tried and tested (admittedly failing the test rather badly) maverick economics, strengthening Turkey as a regional Putin friendly power, crushing LGBT campaigners, AND sending the Syrians back to Syria.

In the battle for hearts and minds it's not a great day for the West regardless... but it could well be a really shite one
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From Russia with Love

#317 Post by Octavious » Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:18 am

Putin speaks
‘We are fighting for the life and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russian: a state with a 1,000-year history. This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the cohesion of all forces: unity, consolidation and responsibility. We must throw aside everything that weakens us, any strife that our external enemies can and will use to undermine us from within.

Actions that threaten our unity represent apostasy against our people, from our comrades-in-arms, now fighting at the front. This is a stab in the back of our country and our people. Such a blow was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was waging the First World War – but victory was stolen from it. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people turned into the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, the loss of vast territories. Russians killed their Russian brothers. All sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces then divided the country, tore it apart and took advantage for selfish gain. We won’t let this happen again.

"We will protect both our people and our statehood from any threats, including internal betrayal. And what we are faced with is precisely that: betrayal, exorbitant ambitions and personal interests that led to treason against our country, our people and the cause for which, side by side with our other units and subunits, soldiers fought and died and commanders of the Wagner Group.

Those who are trying to organize a rebellion are pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide towards defeat and ultimate capitulation. I repeat: any internal turmoil, a deadly threat to our statehood, for us as a nation, is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to protect the Fatherland from such a threat will be tough.

Everyone who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, embarked on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods will suffer inevitable punishment and answer both before the law and before our people.

Our armed forces and other state bodies have been given the necessary orders. Additional antiterrorist measures are now being introduced in Moscow and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don.

As President of Russia and Supreme Commander – as a citizen of Russia – I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order of life and security and the freedom of citizens. Those who organised and prepared the military rebellion, who took up arms against their comrades-in-arms, who betrayed Russia: they will answer for it.

And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic mistakes. I urge them to make the only right choice, to stop participating in criminal acts. I believe that we protect and defend what is dear and sacred to us. And together with our Motherland, we will overcome any trials and become even stronger.’
So, thoughts? On both what happened and Putin's little speach?

It's looking increasingly unlikely that it was a planned deception designed to fool Ukraine into doing something foolish, or to free the Wagner group from state control so it could perform illegal actions with fewer consequences. But it remains entirely possible that it was a fake coup attempt designed to shine a light on the potentially disloyal so an old fashioned purge can take place. Or perhaps it was just a badly calculated move by the Wagner elites whose experience at the front has left them badly out of touch with political reality
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#318 Post by orathaic » Mon Jun 26, 2023 6:25 pm

I did hear there are rumours that Wagner was caught in a Ukrainian security services trap making him think his contacts within the Russian Security apparatus would swap sides and take out his enemies...

But that seems rather too contrived.

It does show that there are downsides to the intentional divided loyalties within the Russian political landscape (explicitly designed to prevent a coup by divide and conquer tactics).

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#319 Post by Octavious » Tue Jun 27, 2023 11:15 am

Russia has a number of measures in place to prevent a coup, including having all of its leading military figures closely watched by the FSB. Such methods are brutal but tend to be effective except when things are falling apart, and if things were that bad you'd have thought Wagner's actions would have generated a lot more support.

There aren't any narratives I can see that fit the observed facts particularly well.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#320 Post by orathaic » Tue Jul 04, 2023 5:49 pm

Octavious wrote:
Tue Jun 27, 2023 11:15 am
Russia has a number of measures in place to prevent a coup, including having all of its leading military figures closely watched by the FSB. Such methods are brutal but tend to be effective except when things are falling apart, and if things were that bad you'd have thought Wagner's actions would have generated a lot more support.

There aren't any narratives I can see that fit the observed facts particularly well.
The US security services released a state - which may be information warfare to reduce trust in Russia - explaining that Prigozhin had a plan to capture two high ranking member of the establish (i don't know, the Minister of Defence and head of the armed forces), as they were supposed to be visiting Rostov-on-Don, but the FSB got wind of the plan (which matches what Octavious said above) and he had to act sooner than he intended, and may have missed them/put them off visiting...

So now Putin appears to be purging anyone who was too slow to react to the coup, because they might have had sympathies with Wagner...

And while this makes some sense of the evidence, why would the US security services release this unless it happen to be true, but also destablise Russian internal trust...

Seems possible, but who knows.

Next step, will Russia blow up a nuclear power plant tomorrow and will that provoke a NATO responce (to send troops in to end the war and kick Russia out of Ukraine)?

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