MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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RagingIke297
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#781 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:21 pm

peterlund wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:45 am
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:06 am
ghug wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:03 am
@Ike, you should absolutely vote today.
@ghug. Why?
@Ike: I agree that you should vote today. You may strike gold and lynch a Mafia team member, which would force everyone to rethink what your alignment might be.
Would it Peter? Would it really? It doesn't matter who I vote for and how they flip there is a reasonable explanation for me being town or me being scum and only 6 people would know the true situation.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#782 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:26 pm

dargorygel wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 11:11 am
@Ike. You wrote: "But you're pretty certain I'm scum right? If a decent majority of people think that way then I shouldn't vote even though I am town. Everyone who is town has no way of knowing my alignment thus no way of knowing if I'm working for or against the town. I'm still going to give my opinion, say who i would be voting for and answer most questions directed at me, but my reads and my votes have less validity than everyone else until i die and they become town canon."
I don't understand. If you are saying that your PR claim gives your discussions some golden status that we will only understand after we see which way you flip, then whichever way you flip, you should be giving us nuggets of future gold, yes? I am not sure if this is scum indicative, or lazy indicative. But your claim DOES elevate you to the spotlight. You need to display your thoughts. THAT is the true role you have claimed.

Also... why do you think you weren't NKed? There have been accusations that you are scum based on that. Did I miss a rational that you posted as to why scum have ignored your claim?
Back on Page 37 I listed all the possibilities of what happened last night. I know one of these two happened:

9. I am town, I get nothing. Scum kill someone and roleblock them and scum claim a roleblock.
10. I am town, I get nothing. Scum kill someone and roleblock someone else in hopes of hitting the other PR


I believe its either of those. Scum could have RB/Killed Xorxes and had Balki claim it, but if they did I do not think Balki is GF, no reason to bring suspicion on him. Scum could have also Killed Xorxes and RB'ed Balki just to cause more confusion than they already did leaving me alive.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#783 Post by DrCJG » Fri May 11, 2018 1:28 pm

@ Peter - I understand your desire to lynch Ike if he is scum... but he is largely neutralized if he is scum (and by his own admission we can have him become worthless if we want) so your vote to lynch him seemed silly, which is why I assume you moved on... but to Balki? when you said on the previous page:

"Yeah. Why would scum RB Balki, when they have Ike claiming PR? The obvious RB target should have been IKE if IKE was not scum, but IKE was not the RB target. To me that means 2 things: Balki is town and IKE is scum. Simple as hell!"

Are you running in circles, you think the (what appeared to be a joke post) of xorxes is definitive enough to reverse your logic... please provide some more reasoning.
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 12:58 pm
As I stated before, I'm going to continue to post reads and WHO I would vote for as well as the reasoning, but since there are only 6 people that know my alignment I will abstain from voting if enough people believe that is what I should do
@ Ike - I dont think anyone is asking you to abstain... enough with this diatribe... we get it, we are responsible for telling you not to vote. If you are a town PR, we aren't going to know until you flip but obviously we want as much information from you as possible to look back at. While I would not suggest you make quick vote switches at the end of the day without clear reasoning, even that will be information later.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#784 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:30 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 12:03 pm
@Peterlund: Your analysis presumes Ike is either a genuine PR, or scum.

What if he is a VT who claimed PR because he was afraid to die?


@RagingIke: You acknowledge the fact that a lot of us don't believe your claim. Are you sticking to it? Do you continue to assert that you are a PR?
Why would I claim PR if I wasn't truly a PR? If Bozo was a PR I would be in more crap than I am now because I would only be able to claim a single PR and the real PR could out me if they wanted to. If I'm VT and the town comes to lynch me I'm not going to weasel out of it by claiming PR if they believe I'm the one that needs to go
I maintain my claim that I am PR

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#785 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:33 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 12:04 pm
@RagingIke, Would you please elaborate on what your plan is for the day and why?

@Snowy, I’m sort of giving no you the benefit of the doubt so far, as you’re obviously holding back. Would you please go into game solve mode and give us some wisdom? If your town, it’s a big waste for you to be a leading wagon just because you haven’t decided to play yet. Please play.
I plan to give reads and answer any questions anyone has, none of it is useful now but it will be later. As it looks most people that have responded think I should vote but I'm going to give it more time before I decide on that

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#786 Post by teacher2 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:34 pm

God, Id like to see more action. Lurking town=Bad!town. There are questions in here for:
  • Thamrick,
  • Ike, and
  • PeterLund.
teacher2 wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 10:25 pm
I dont think Balki and Ike are both mafia, given Balki's voting and hard Ike pressure.
After overnight thinking, this is weaker to me. Its 5-D chess, but imagine scum!Balki pressures scum!Ike early, thinking the wagon wont take root, but knowing Ike can PR claim if it becomes close. The holstered RB bolsters one maf when the other is already a compromised 50/50. Not saying its likely, but its more possible than I thought yesterday.
thamrick wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 5:11 am
@teacher - I had seen your response to the quote but still feel like it deserves another look. You said it was a mobile post. When you posted it, Ike was in the lead and had just claimed PR iirc. Get me in what mindset you were in. Had you seen Ike’s claim? What outcome did you expect when you posted that? .
Ike was in the lead. I started typing just after reeder switch, before the claim (X-posting there; his posted before me, but I typed before it). I expected the Ike wagon to go through, flip town (not PR-late claim!), and for it to have been pushed over-the-top by scum. Bozo's townflip killed my theory. Anything else?
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 7:52 am
I have a theory regarding Ike's weird interaction with Ghug but first I'd ask them both to comment on it themselves.
I shared your theory, but Ike has subsequently contradicted it. Ike, I think ghug has answered your questions. Can you now explain how you played out the answer possibilities and their AI, akin to how you did with the gun. Im interested.
peterlund wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:37 am
This is very scummy way of motivating [reedeer's] vote on me "more and more people were moving him to their scum or slight scum reads.".
NAI to me; scum wants a wagon on town; town wants a consensus lynch to go through.
peterlund wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:45 am
Ooh did Jamie ask me questions? I must have missed those somehow. I guess I am not reading Jamie closely enough... :eyeroll: What page are they on?
You have a bot, right? I used it to see page 15. He attributes his vote to the counter-personality definition requests AND the immediate log-off. You do respond by saying that you dont want to make lists, which is a way of preserving the flexibility that scum want.

@PeterLund, you have now voted two ostensible scum targets - Ike and Balki - and your reasoning seems, well, odd. The consensus was to leave Ike alone as un'cced PR. What made you move to Balki, the un'cced RB? I echo DrCJC here.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#787 Post by DrCJG » Fri May 11, 2018 1:43 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:34 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 7:52 am
I have a theory regarding Ike's weird interaction with Ghug but first I'd ask them both to comment on it themselves.
I shared your theory, but Ike has subsequently contradicted it. Ike, I think ghug has answered your questions. Can you now explain how you played out the answer possibilities and their AI, akin to how you did with the gun. Im interested.
Secrecy can be helpful at time... but it seems like we should be laying most of it on the table... it made me think think that there was an outside chance Ike 1) figured it was unlikely Bozo was a PR; 2) Wanted to save himself; and 3) figured he would provide cover for a real PR by doing it.

It does seem like he is denying that, but I assume he would still deny that at least until the end is near. But, that was part of why I asked earlier if anyone thought he would claim PR as VT. Having heard no one go down this rabbit hole, I am assuming for the moment that he is neutralized scum.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#788 Post by snowy801 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:47 pm

awfully awkward wording don't you think
"I maintain my claim that I am PR"
really makes you think

hey have you ever considered that your likelihood for shitposting rises dramatically when you're on the can?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#789 Post by DrCJG » Fri May 11, 2018 1:49 pm

yavuzovic wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 9:09 pm
@Dr What is the rest of your question?
:eyeroll:

@ Yav - On page 32, I called you out for unvoting Ghug in response to my questioning it, claiming to vote Ezio (because he was voting no-lynch), then within 2 pages without any changes by Ezio voting no-lynch because you couldn't decide on anyone who was scummy enough... "I then asked has anything changed, do you have anyone you would be willing to vote for right now?"

Although a lot more has come to light and I would have liked to known what you were thinking back then, I would still like to hear your opinions on Ike, Ghug, and who you would be willing to lynch (and why).

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#790 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:52 pm

@Teacher

Page 30 Ghug said this: Ike should claim his exact role tomorrow if he's alive, and then we can wait for a counterclaim just like always. These things aren't hard to sort out in such a simple setup.

I asked him specifically so I could see if he held is thoughts: Page 36 I'm kinda torn on that. My inclination in a vacuum is wait. My inclination given that I'm confident you're scum and we're going to have shit for info others are willing to use until you're resolved is to try to force you into it. If you're cop with a useful scan, you should obviously claim

Anyone else see what he did there? He's basically saying "If you're cop you should claim, if you're doc you shouldn't". That kinda defeats the purpose no?

Page 37 regarding the voting aspect, since Ghug thinks I'm scum why would he want me throwing my weight around for the lynch? I get it, vote patterns, EOD analysis, but if I'm scum I know that people have me under a microscope why not be 100% random in my votes so there are no connections later? I feel like Ghug should have wanted me to not vote, he should have been all over me not voting as it would be "best for town"

Ghug Page 37 If you're scum, you have to pretend to be one of those anyway, and we get the benefit of you trying to avoid informing us of anything in exchange for leaving you alive.

What benefit is there to town to keep me alive if I'm trying to avoid informing the town? I don't see one. Town is mainly keeping me alive to avoid the potential consequences, and I foresee scum keeping me alive to try to make the town think the potential consequences are minimal so the town will follow through and lynch me.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#791 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 1:53 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:47 pm
awfully awkward wording don't you think
"I maintain my claim that I am PR"
really makes you think
How would you have liked me to word it Snowy?
What does it make you think about?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#792 Post by DrCJG » Fri May 11, 2018 1:59 pm

DrCJG wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:53 pm
@ Ezio - Guess I shouldn't be surprised that you haven't posted anything
@ Ezio - :eyeroll: I understand why there is an urge to lynch lurkers. Join the conversation.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#793 Post by peterlund » Fri May 11, 2018 2:01 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 12:11 pm
@Peter, do you really think I am scum? Is this a knee-jerk reaction or something that you’ve thought through? And is your full reasoning that the NK target considered me to be “scummish”?
Xorxes wrote: "I have him as scumish and not full scum yet. The way he somehow expected people to have solid reads that they could fully justify on D1 just didn't feel right."

It seemed like he was soon prepared to label you "full scum" or at least scum you could have been thinking so, and this combined with what you could have read as a Xorx COP crumb makes you a very possible mafia member. Maybe even a more important mafia member that needs protection against a veteran mafia player like Xorx.
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 12:11 pm
What do you think is the priority for the scum team right now in choosing a NK target?
They want to find the 2 town PRs. And as I said Ike would probably be doc saved anyhow so then you went for Xorx instead, since he was such a pain in the arse for you.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#794 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri May 11, 2018 2:02 pm

@RagingIke, what 6 people know your alignment?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#795 Post by teacher2 » Fri May 11, 2018 2:03 pm

DrCJG wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:43 pm
teacher2 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:34 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 7:52 am
I have a theory regarding Ike's weird interaction with Ghug but first I'd ask them both to comment on it themselves.
I shared your theory, but Ike has subsequently contradicted it. Ike, I think ghug has answered your questions. Can you now explain how you played out the answer possibilities and their AI, akin to how you did with the gun. Im interested.
Secrecy can be helpful at time... but it seems like we should be laying most of it on the table... it made me think think that there was an outside chance Ike 1) figured it was unlikely Bozo was a PR; 2) Wanted to save himself; and 3) figured he would provide cover for a real PR by doing it.

It does seem like he is denying that, but I assume he would still deny that at least until the end is near. But, that was part of why I asked earlier if anyone thought he would claim PR as VT. Having heard no one go down this rabbit hole, I am assuming for the moment that he is neutralized scum.
My theory was that Ike was cop who scanned ghug. Thats obviously not the case.

Ike as VT hopefully doesnt claim that late, when there is a risk Bozo is PR. Theres no time for a double switch.

Ike is pure 50/50 to me.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#796 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 2:06 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 2:02 pm
@RagingIke, what 6 people know your alignment?
Myself and the 5 members of the scum team

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#797 Post by peterlund » Fri May 11, 2018 2:07 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:01 pm
@everyone please feel free to answer the following questions:

Should I claim my full role?
No, that would only help scum and in the worst case cause a counter claim that is not good for town.
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:01 pm
Should I vote today?
Yes, but maybe do not change your vote very near to the deadline. That could cause chain reactions that are unwanted.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#798 Post by peterlund » Fri May 11, 2018 2:13 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:21 pm
peterlund wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:45 am
@Ike: I agree that you should vote today. You may strike gold and lynch a Mafia team member, which would force everyone to rethink what your alignment might be.
Would it Peter? Would it really? It doesn't matter who I vote for and how they flip there is a reasonable explanation for me being town or me being scum and only 6 people would know the true situation.
As long as you are one of the early voters on a scum that gets hanged, it would change how people read you. If you just jump onto the more or less already decided lynch target that happens to be scum, I agree, it makes no difference.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#799 Post by teacher2 » Fri May 11, 2018 2:14 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:52 pm
Page 30 Ghug said this: Ike should claim his exact role tomorrow if he's alive, and then we can wait for a counterclaim just like always. These things aren't hard to sort out in such a simple setup.
I saw this as potentially scummy PR hunting. But I gave it low weight given the timing and rush of EoD. I credit ghug for revisiting the issue after Xorxes's wisdom. (This is not to say that I *like* ghug yet, just that I dont weigh this that much.
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:52 pm
He's basically saying "If you're cop you should claim, if you're doc you shouldn't".
I disagree. His "useful scan" -> if you have a mafia scan only. Then two spots are 50/50 and we should probably lynch the other one to confirm you.
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 1:52 pm
Page 37 regarding the voting aspect, since Ghug thinks I'm scum why would he want me throwing my weight around for the lynch? I get it, vote patterns, EOD analysis, but if I'm scum I know that people have me under a microscope why not be 100% random in my votes so there are no connections later?
As someone else who wanted you to vote, I agree with everything youve said here but think its an argument for reading and voting. Scum!you has to try to look plausible (not 100% random as thats a scum tell) but also stay on town (or WIFOM) - information we can use. Town!you can contribute whatever your real thoughts are. Either way, town gains by having you play. Having you silent neutralizes someone who recognized that talking is good. But I think this is water under the bridge.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#800 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 2:17 pm

peterlund wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 9:10 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 10:19 pm
Provided that nobody counterclaims my role block, I think we know:

(1) I am scum, and scum holstered their RB; or
(2) I am town and scum thought I may be a PR

Is it possible that scum holstered their RB to try to give me Town cred? Yes, certainly. But that would be an odd strategy. I was not under much suspicion, and holstering a Role Block is a somewhat expensive way to try to give me town cred, when it is probably more likely to backfire and shine a spotlight on me.

Anyway, I'm town, and I was role blocked.
Yeah. Why would scum RB Balki, when they have Ike claiming PR? The obvious RB target should have been IKE if IKE was not scum, but IKE was not the RB target. To me that means 2 things: Balki is town and IKE is scum. Simple as hell!
peterlund wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:43 am
Reading Xorxes in SOLO: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... rt=1-&g=36

I found 2 things supporting my option 5.

Page 33:
xorxes wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:58 pm
From the Mafia QT:

Ezio: <b> kill xorxes</b> before he finds us all out.
Ike: Phew, that was a close one.
Balki: You were meant to die, now I will have to bus another one of you tomorrow to get towncred.
Telamor: Should I keep pushing the Prado?
[hours later] Chaqa: Hi guys! I just read my PM and found the link here, what did I miss?
Here Xorxes wrote "Ezio: <b> kill xorxes</b> before he finds us all out.". Maybe scum read as Xorxes crumbing "I am cop".

Page 34:
xorxes wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 9:33 pm
TrPrado wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 9:20 pm
Xorxes:

Why do you think Balki is scum?
I can't say exactly, that's why I have him as scumish and not full scum yet. The way he somehow expected people to have solid reads that they could fully justify on D1 just didn't feel right. Maybe it's just his personality or a tactic, I don't know, but his interrogation methods make me think he wants to force people into corners by intimidation more than to get any information.
Here Xorxes suspects Balki even more just 27 minutes before EoN1. He had Balki on his scum list already in his early full read list. Are these the circumstantial leads we are looking for? Did scum NK Xorxes in order to protect their Godfather? ##VOTE BALKI
Peter that turnaround was quite dramatic and really rapid

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