MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[DrCJG]

DrC, you think Jamie and snowy have matching alignments, and you think Jamie is town, but you're voting snowy? Who would you vote for if we were lynching outside of those two?

Odds are low of successfully blocking the self-save, but they're low of being successful with any rb, and blocking your I doesn't give town a semi-clear like actually blocking does.

@Ghug - First, let me encourage you to take a deeper look at yav. I know I have not been a prolific poster, but I thought I had made it clear, including in my previous post that I think we should be lynching Yav. For more of my argument, I refer you to my post on Page 46. If I could muster any support for lynching Yav, I would be far more confident in my vote.

Second, yes, I am currently operating under the assumption that Snowy and Jamie have matching alignments because I think it is more likely that snowy and Jamie are either both scum or both town, than one and one.

In particular, I am looking at the voting at the end of D2...

I have already posted that Stressed wasn't a particularly surprising lynch target and that he was one I would have been willing to lynch... furthermore, I went into the end of day with snowy and jamie on the null/scum line for me... so I can still see them both being town.

But, as I have reviewed the EoD the stressed wagon seems like an unnaturally convenient wagon for scum to jump on without raising too much suspicion. I can certainly see them both being scum and a shift to stressed being executed by scum to save them

What seems less likely is that only one of them is scum, and most unlikely that Jamie is scum and Snowy is town. If snowy is town and Jamie is scum, it seems like the mafia could have pushed snow through without any issue. The last minute move to Stressed would seem unnecessary and risky as it could backfire and end up with a Jamie lynch. If only one was scum it is seems almost certain that snowy would be the scum, but it also seems unlikely that Jamie is town and Snowy is scum... it would mean that scum snowy was saved by a group (that would presumably have at least some scum) that chose to vote on a 1 vote stressed rather than a 4 vote jamie.

Of course, I also understand that I may be suffering from WIFOM. But, if we can't get behind a yav lynching... I think snowy is the more likely scum... and i think his flip could lead to an easy lynch of a second scum or a near townclear of Jamie

[yavuzovic]

##vote ghug

I'm pretty sure about this one. ghug knows why.

Wait, did ghug solve the encrypted messages?

[DrCJG]

Yes, but if they don't have a good idea who the Cop is, what do they have to gain by roleblcoking a random VT?

True, but with Ike's claim it would seem they don't have to pick a truly random VT. Furthermore, wouldn't a random VT have about the same odds of being a PR as the target being a self-saving doc

[peterlund]

I mean, if they're gonna keep not roleblocking anyone as long as we leave him alive, I'm OK with that trade.

On p1 GM wrote:

DOCTOR

You are the DOCTOR. Each day you must vote for a suspect. Each night, you may visit a player by PM'ing the GM with the order ##SAVE . At the end of the night, if they have been targeted by the mafia you will save their life. You will know if you successfully performed a save. Your target will be notified only if they have been successfully saved. You may visit yourself. You may not visit the same player on consecutive nights. You win when all of the Mafia have been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from happening.

Which I read as that the Doc can save himself every second night. Scum are probably doing RBs on their NK targets just in case then find the Doc. That would explain that no RB was claimed, would it not? To me it looks like scum are hunting for town PRs, which comes as no surprise either. Did Teacher ever say anything that could have been interpreted as a Doc crumb by scum?

[dargorygel]

##vote ghug

I'm pretty sure about this one. ghug knows why.

@Balki... for the most part, you seem like reasoning Balki to me. But this fakish claim, combined with your earlier fake claim about rdrivera (from page 1) " I think rdrivera is tow​n. My thinking on this is for secret and mysterious reasons that I will not divulge at this time."...

Is this just trying to be funny? I can't believe that you think this is subtle. But I am not liking it. You might consider this a question, but you haven't answered earlier questions about your cat typing... so I am not sure what to expect from you.

Anyone have any ideas about Balki's fakish claiming?

[Balki Bartokomous]

##vote ghug

I'm pretty sure about this one. ghug knows why.

Is this just trying to be funny? I can't believe that you think this is subtle. But I am not liking it. You might consider this a question, but you haven't answered earlier questions about your cat typing... so I am not sure what to expect from you.

Anyone have any ideas about Balki's fakish claiming?

I'm not trying to be funny and I don't have a cat.

Let's lynch ghug please.

[rdrivera2005]

Ok Rdr, fair enough.

At this point, who are your top three scumreads?

How do you regard Thamrick and TrPrado?

Jamiet, I have to confess I don't have any solid scumread. You are on my list, but I changed my mind about you two or three times until know. I also scumread Tham, I usually find her logic and analisys pretty solid and this game I don't see this. Third one would be Ike because of the claim, that is highly unlikely, but I won't advocate his lynch for obvious reasons. A fourth one would be DrCJ, specially if I am wrong and both you and Snowy are town.

About Prado, he didn't strike me as particular scummy, and his reaction to Stressed lynch seemed townie to me (I was pretty angry myself).

[dargorygel]

And I am back to ezio.
His lack of reaction to the whole no-lynch conversation on D1 made him an early scum read for me. Then the next day, while it was happening, seemed less scum. But now I see that it doesn't really interact, or do much of anything but throw pebbles in the pond. He really only lists a bunch of people he is townreading, with no explanation.

##VOTE EZIO

[peterlund]

One other observation I did reading the Doc PM was that the Doc target only gets to know he was saved if and only if he also was the NK target.

Your target will be notified only if they have been successfully saved.

[dargorygel]

@balki
You interacted with yavu about ghug earlier... and sort of defended ghug. Now you want us to lynch ghug? Do you have an erudite explanation that I missed?

[yavuzovic]

Third, yav is still at the top of my scumlist.

Second, based on reviewing the voting I do think it is more likely that Snowy and Jamie are either both town or both scum.

This is logical but snowy pushed Jamiet twice yesterday. I think this eliminates that they are both scum, even if they both finished the day on stressed. That could be a trick but I don't think mafias could take much attention by doing this.You see the consequence: snowy is set to be lynched and jamiet wagon is an important choice.

And should I keep my copread secret?. That doesn't sound like a good idea to announce it.

[yavuzovic]

##vote ghug

I'm pretty sure about this one. ghug knows why.

If you could care to explain, I would join you happily.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@balki
You interacted with yavu about ghug earlier... and sort of defended ghug. Now you want us to lynch ghug? Do you have an erudite explanation that I missed?

I do not have an erudite explanation, but I have this.

I'd like to lynch ghug today, but I would settle for lynching him tomorrow, if you pinky promise to do it tomorrow.

[dargorygel]

@balki
You interacted with yavu about ghug earlier... and sort of defended ghug. Now you want us to lynch ghug? Do you have an erudite explanation that I missed?

I do not have an erudite explanation, but I have this.

I'd like to lynch ghug today, but I would settle for lynching him tomorrow, if you pinky promise to do it tomorrow.

Thanks, Balki... I missed that, reading.

I could vote today for snowy, ike, or telamor. Maybe Peter or Yazu.

[yavuzovic]

@balki
You interacted with yavu about ghug earlier... and sort of defended ghug. Now you want us to lynch ghug? Do you have an erudite explanation that I missed?

I do not have an erudite explanation, but I have this.

I'd like to lynch ghug today, but I would settle for lynching him tomorrow, if you pinky promise to do it tomorrow.

Thanks, Balki... I missed that, reading.

I could vote today for snowy, ike, or telamor. Maybe Peter or Yazu.

Everybody does it, but it hurt more when it comes from someone you don't expect.

[Foxcastle]

I could vote for Telemor, Darg.

Secondly, Prado I don't know how you expect new players to act but I am not shy retiring violet by nature. I'm also not being coached, I'm still fumbling around and trying to figure out which end of this game is which. I think that's been pretty obvious so far which makes me wonder if you just reckon I'll be an easy lynch because I'm new. Let me say stupid things to make myself look like scum while you build up a small anti-Telamor posse. Get me lynched then when it turns out I'm townie just.shrug your shoulders and blame it on my being new. One townie down for minimal effort.

I think this is scummy. Because I've seen other newbie scum do it. Also, does it strike anyone else like Telamor is not quite accusing TrPrado of being scum here? I guess at the end, "one townie down for minimal effort" makes heavy implications, but does Telamor know that TrPrado is town and that's why his defense isn't a full on scumread?

@telamor, why are you voting for Ezio right now?

In all honesty out of pettiness. Ezio voted for me so I voted back. It gave me a reason to vote for someone even if not a very constructive one. If I was voting to advance town interests I would vote for you. The sooner we can open up Schrodinger's Ike the sooner we can crack on in my opinion. The Scum already know if yo u're town or not and will be acting on the basis of that knowledge as long as we don't have it we're a step behind them. That said there doesn't seem to be much support for my view so I assume it isn't as simple as it appears to be to me.

And then this explanation for voting Ezio also strikes me as the type of play a newbie scum would make. I suspect he was told to bus Ike in the Mafia QT, and I wonder if Ike is trying to help him out here.

Then on p.49, "My main focus thus far has been on staying alive." Given that there had only been two votes on him ever when he said that (Xorxes Day 1, Ezio Day 2 about 22 hours prior to the statement), it looks like the guilty flee when no one pursueth.

##VOTE TELAMOR

[Balki Bartokomous]

Yazu, is it okay if I call you Zazu?

http://disney.wikia.com/wiki/Zazu

It is easier for me to remember and it has a positive association for me -- doubly so now that John Oliver has been tabbed to voice Zazu in the forthcoming live action remake of the Disney classic.

If you would prefer to call me the name of your favorite Disney sidekick, that's totally fine with me.

[ghug]

Balki, do you still think Ike is scum?

If so, do you really think I would have bussed him that hard day one?

If not, do you believe I'm stupid enough to not roleblock him?

Shame on you.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I could vote for Telemor, Darg.

Secondly, Prado I don't know how you expect new players to act but I am not shy retiring violet by nature. I'm also not being coached, I'm still fumbling around and trying to figure out which end of this game is which. I think that's been pretty obvious so far which makes me wonder if you just reckon I'll be an easy lynch because I'm new. Let me say stupid things to make myself look like scum while you build up a small anti-Telamor posse. Get me lynched then when it turns out I'm townie just.shrug your shoulders and blame it on my being new. One townie down for minimal effort.

I think this is scummy. Because I've seen other newbie scum do it. Also, does it strike anyone else like Telamor is not quite accusing TrPrado of being scum here? I guess at the end, "one townie down for minimal effort" makes heavy implications, but does Telamor know that TrPrado is town and that's why his defense isn't a full on scumread?

Telamor is definitely accusing TrPrado of being scum here.

"If you just reckon I'll be an easy lynch"
"Get me lynched then when it turns out I'm townie just.shrug your shoulders and blame it on my being new."
"One townie down for minimal effort."

Seems like he is clearly accusing TrPrado of being scum.

What am I missing, @Foxy Knoxy?

[TrPrado]

I think just about everyone has voiced a willingness to lynch Telamor. Have the scum resigned to bussing him because it’s an inevitability or should we be more hesitant?