MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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Foxcastle
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2561 Post by Foxcastle » Fri May 25, 2018 4:04 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 3:51 pm
Question for you, if I am indeed scum why has the "real" doctor not claimed yet? Why didn't he save peter yesterday?
One explanation is that the real doctor thought scum would anticipate Peter being saved and so the real doctor thought scum would direct the NK somewhere else, so they could NK Peter tonight. But if that's the case, the real doctor guessed wrong. And it's WIFOM anyway.

I have been seriously wrong about scumreads of PR claims in the past, where I was sure there was no way they could actually be town (sorry about that, Demon!). So I entertain the possibility that you're not scum, and Peter being NK'd is a point in your favor as town (as I think it's a somewhat better play to just keep Peter alive rather than try to outguess scum).

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2562 Post by Foxcastle » Fri May 25, 2018 4:04 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:01 pm
This is @ you fox

Question for you, if I am indeed scum why has the "real" doctor not claimed yet? Why didn't he save peter yesterday?
Yes, I saw that. And responded separately. Give me a few minutes to get to things!

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2563 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 25, 2018 4:13 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:04 pm
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 3:51 pm
Question for you, if I am indeed scum why has the "real" doctor not claimed yet? Why didn't he save peter yesterday?
One explanation is that the real doctor thought scum would anticipate Peter being saved and so the real doctor thought scum would direct the NK somewhere else, so they could NK Peter tonight. But if that's the case, the real doctor guessed wrong. And it's WIFOM anyway.

I have been seriously wrong about scumreads of PR claims in the past, where I was sure there was no way they could actually be town (sorry about that, Demon!). So I entertain the possibility that you're not scum, and Peter being NK'd is a point in your favor as town (as I think it's a somewhat better play to just keep Peter alive rather than try to outguess scum).

That's one explanation, the one I had in my mind was that there would be no reason for them to claim since N4, we had 2 scum bagged and him claiming would hypothetically bag me too but people wouldn't be able to lynch me and him until day 7 anyways and that would out him for a night kill. Tonight would be when a doc claim would happen but it won't.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2564 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 25, 2018 4:15 pm

I would like to see a FULL reads list from you Fox

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2565 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 25, 2018 4:17 pm

I also have a theory about the NK tonight, I'll post it closer to the deadline. I don't want to give out any ideas

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2566 Post by Foxcastle » Fri May 25, 2018 4:43 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:15 pm
I would like to see a FULL reads list from you Fox
Even my scumbuddies?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2567 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 25, 2018 4:45 pm

What's the longest an un'cc'ed PR has lived before? Just looking back at old games, Bo claimed doctor on D1 in M7 and was promptly lynched the next day. Of course that was Bo, but still

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2568 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 25, 2018 4:46 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:43 pm
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:15 pm
I would like to see a FULL reads list from you Fox
Even my scumbuddies?
No, go ahead an leave them out again, I dare ya

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2569 Post by Foxcastle » Fri May 25, 2018 4:47 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:46 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:43 pm
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:15 pm
I would like to see a FULL reads list from you Fox
Even my scumbuddies?
No, go ahead an leave them out again, I dare ya
Okay, but remember when you told me in the mafia QT to bus you hard? Should I still include you?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2570 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 25, 2018 5:01 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:47 pm
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:46 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 4:43 pm


Even my scumbuddies?
No, go ahead an leave them out again, I dare ya
Okay, but remember when you told me in the mafia QT to bus you hard? Should I still include you?
Wasn't it xorxes that said someone who jokes about being scum is more likely to be scum?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2571 Post by rdrivera2005 » Fri May 25, 2018 5:22 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 3:27 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 3:19 pm
RagingIke297 wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 2:52 pm
I think that Fox is scummy. He left the same 3 people off of his reads list twice and seems like he is avoiding them. He has advocated that I am scum all game which seems like a tactic scum would use in combination with not NK'ing me to get me lynched in a critical situation. He continues to advocate that I am scum, but isn't voting for me, seems like he is waiting until he can get enough people to not look scummy when he does it. I bring up that the scum are playing long game with me and he flat out rejects it "The scumteam is probably not playing some brilliant long game." He's posted 8 times in the last two days and I feel like he's a better player and should be doing more.
I haven't been advocating lynching you because there's been no appetite for it, particularly when we've had copscans to work on. But yes, I still think you're scum.

Also, I was traveling for work all week, so yeah, my posting was light.

And isn't a little bit contradictory to imply I'm a reasonably good player ("I feel like he's a better play than that"), but base your scumread of me on something so boneheaded as leaving my scummates off my reads? Trust me, if I was scum, they'd have been in my reads one way or the other. As it stands, I don't mind admitting that I simply didn't catch them.
I just don't like it, and its not the only thing I'm basing the scum read off of. You quoted the post, read it. Additionally twice now you have mentioned how RDR is getting no pressure and you have done nothing to pressure him.
I feel like Rdrivera usually gets more pressure than this and he's been largely ignored this game.
I also left out Rdrivera. I still think it's odd that he's not getting pressure
That's interesting. I have the same feeling about Thamrick like he try to shade people to see if somehow it turn into a wagon. I didn't notice Fox doing this before this message, but I think I will need to reread him carefully.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2572 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 25, 2018 6:09 pm

I am doing a VCA on each of the surviving players. Note that it is only worth looking at the first four days, since on D5, everyone except Darg voted for Bo_Sox, and on D6, everyone voted for Darg.

Here are the first two:

DrCJG
=====

Day 1: Voted for TrPrado for much of the day, moved to **start** a wagon on Bozo with less than an hour to go, but well before RagingIke's claim. Bozo (VT) was lynched over RagingIke.

Day 2: Voted for Ezio early, moved to Yavuzovic mid-phase, and stayed there. Was present at EoD but chose to stay on a pointless Yavuzovic wagon with 1 vote. Stressedlines (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 3: Voted for Snowy early. Stayed there. Was not present at EoD. Telamor (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 4: Voted for Yavuzovic around halfway into the day. Moved to Ezio with an hour to go. Balki (VT) was lynched over Ezio.

ANALYSIS: It is interesting that DrCJG started the Bozo wagon. It is also interesting that he had a total about-face on Snowy from EoD2 to the start of D3. At least he was not on the Stressedlines, Telamor, or Balki wagons.


Ezio
====

Day 1: Voted No-Lynch. Then voted for Teacher2 and stayed there. Did not appear to be online at EoD. Bozo (VT) was lynched over RagingIke.

Day 2: Sat his vote on Telamor. Was not online at EoD. Stressedlines (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 3: Came online at EoD after being largely absent, to vote for Telamor. Telamor (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 4: Voted Balki. Moved to Thamrick a couple of hours out. Jumped onto Balki right at the end. Balki (VT) was lynched over Ezio.

ANALYSIS: Looks like he took part in the saving of Snowy D3. His lack of activity makes further analysis difficult.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2573 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 25, 2018 6:19 pm

Foxcastle
=========

Day 1 (as Reedeer1): Started on Peterlund. Moved to RagingIke at Eod which was the vote that prompted Ike to claim. Jumped to Bozo. Bozo (VT) was lynched over RagingIke.

Day 2: Reedeer1 did note vote and was replaced. Stressedlines (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 3: Moved from Peterlund to Telamor to Thamrick to Snowy and back to Telamor. Was present at EoD. Telamor (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 4: Voted Balki and stayed on Balki all the time. Was present at EoD. Balki (VT) was lynched over Ezio.

ANALYSIS: Tricky becuase Reedeer1 was crap and there's no D2 vote. His flippity-floppity throwing around of votes D3 was suspect and I'll come back to that later if I can. Notably, was on the "winning" wagon each day for which there was a vote at all.


Jamiet99uk
==========

I may as well mention my own votes for the sake of transparency. Note that I have a tendency to pressure-vote and vote people to get their attention, especially early on.

Day 1: Voted TrPrado, Ghug, Ezio, Peter, and then settled on Snowy. When Ike claimed I moved to Bozo to ensure Ike would not be lynched. Bozo (VT) was lynched over RagingIke.

Day 2: Switched between Snowy, Ezio, and Stressedlines, who I ended on. Stressedlines (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 3: Voted for Snowy almost all day, apart from the brief period when I though Balki claimed Cop with a scan on Ghug. Went back to Snowy where I ended. Telamor (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 4: Voted for Snowy. As a wagon built on Ezio I joined it, and stayed on. Balki (VT) was lynched over Ezio.

ANALYSIS: Naturally town. Wish I'd stayed on Snowy D2 though.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2574 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 25, 2018 6:34 pm

RagingIke
==========

Day 1: Voted Rdrivera, Thamrick, Peter, Snowy, then Bozo. Bozo (VT) was lynched over RagingIke.

Day 2: Voted only for Telamor. Was absent at EoD it appears. Stressedlines (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 3: Voted for Ghug, then moved to Telamor. Telamor (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 4: Started on Balki, briefly voted for Peter, then Snowy. Balki (VT) was lynched over Ezio.

ANALYSIS: He really liked voting for Telamor, though the reasoning D2 was weak. I believe his Doctor claim though so, eh.


Rdrivera
========

Day 1: Voted Xorxes, then later voted RagingIke. Absent at EoD, where Bozo (VT) was lynched over RagingIke.

Day 2: Voted only for Jamiet99uk (me). Was again absent at EoD. Stressedlines (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 3: Voted for me, then flipped back and forth between Thamrick and Snowy. Ended on Snowy while saying he would rather lynch Thamrick. Telamor (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 4: Voted Thamrick all day. Balki (VT) was lynched over Ezio.

ANALYSIS: Mostly absent at EoD's it seems?

QUESTION: @Rdrivera: Talk us through your flips back and forth between Snowy and Thamrick on D3, would you?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2575 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 25, 2018 6:34 pm

Alright I'm stepping back up to the plate to finish my reread. Left off at the start of D3 and up to here it's looking like Jamie and thamrick are it, so I'm looking for anything that can point to a third or someone who fits better than those two. For a while I was thinking yavuz could have been a final but I'm honestly not sure about that.
Gotta get in deep because we are absolutely still losing right now. We need 3 scum lynches to win this, whereas they still only need two mislynches to finish us off.

A few notes before we begin though:
  • I'm taking Ike to be pretty clearly townie here, given I believe his doc claim
  • I also presume DrCJG to be town. Given the extent to which he's gotten involved and more than willing to share his thoughts, and also without looking even marginally coached, he seems to fit exactly what a new town player would look like. It's also important, with him, to consider the fact that he took the lead role in getting the D1 lynch off the ground. I don't know if I've ever seen an experienced scum take up the head role in a mislynch, let alone a new one who would be far too timid to do something like that, especially on the first day.
  • Finally, I have very high doubts that Fox is scum. I don't think we would see too many of the more egregious lurkers being scumbuckets. Between Chaqa and reedeer, I really only would anticipate one having been scum, and we already found which of those two it was.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2576 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 25, 2018 6:38 pm

TrPrado wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 6:34 pm
Alright I'm stepping back up to the plate to finish my reread. Left off at the start of D3 and up to here it's looking like Jamie and thamrick are it, so I'm looking for anything that can point to a third or someone who fits better than those two. For a while I was thinking yavuz could have been a final but I'm honestly not sure about that.
Gotta get in deep because we are absolutely still losing right now. We need 3 scum lynches to win this, whereas they still only need two mislynches to finish us off.

A few notes before we begin though:
  • I'm taking Ike to be pretty clearly townie here, given I believe his doc claim
  • I also presume DrCJG to be town. Given the extent to which he's gotten involved and more than willing to share his thoughts, and also without looking even marginally coached, he seems to fit exactly what a new town player would look like. It's also important, with him, to consider the fact that he took the lead role in getting the D1 lynch off the ground. I don't know if I've ever seen an experienced scum take up the head role in a mislynch, let alone a new one who would be far too timid to do something like that, especially on the first day.
  • Finally, I have very high doubts that Fox is scum. I don't think we would see too many of the more egregious lurkers being scumbuckets. Between Chaqa and reedeer, I really only would anticipate one having been scum, and we already found which of those two it was.
Yeah let's start your re-read with a whole lot of embedded assumptions about half the players and a continued tunnel on me. That'll ensure you read clearly and without confirmation bias. Sure.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2577 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 25, 2018 6:44 pm

There's something in D3 that does start to give me misgivings about the prospect of Jamie as scum, that being the way bo tried to goad him into pushing me. He tried to get Jamie to make a move and take up a wagon on me, and I don't think one scum would do that to another.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2578 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 25, 2018 6:46 pm

TrPrado wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 6:34 pm
Alright I'm stepping back up to the plate to finish my reread. Left off at the start of D3 and up to here it's looking like Jamie and thamrick are it, so I'm looking for anything that can point to a third or someone who fits better than those two. For a while I was thinking yavuz could have been a final but I'm honestly not sure about that.
Gotta get in deep because we are absolutely still losing right now. We need 3 scum lynches to win this, whereas they still only need two mislynches to finish us off.

A few notes before we begin though:
  • I'm taking Ike to be pretty clearly townie here, given I believe his doc claim
  • I also presume DrCJG to be town. Given the extent to which he's gotten involved and more than willing to share his thoughts, and also without looking even marginally coached, he seems to fit exactly what a new town player would look like. It's also important, with him, to consider the fact that he took the lead role in getting the D1 lynch off the ground. I don't know if I've ever seen an experienced scum take up the head role in a mislynch, let alone a new one who would be far too timid to do something like that, especially on the first day.
  • Finally, I have very high doubts that Fox is scum. I don't think we would see too many of the more egregious lurkers being scumbuckets. Between Chaqa and reedeer, I really only would anticipate one having been scum, and we already found which of those two it was.
I would like to dispute this as well, DrCJG did not build that wagon, the wagon built itself behind him. He put a vote somewhere and it materialized from other people pushing it, not him.

We also had an extremely small chance that going into EOD1 that our doctor and cop would be very viable wagons but it happened. Improbable is not impossible. Chaqa was scum that got mod killed in a game I played IIRC

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2579 Post by TrPrado » Fri May 25, 2018 6:48 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 6:38 pm
Yeah let's start your re-read with a whole lot of embedded assumptions about half the players and a continued tunnel on me. That'll ensure you read clearly and without confirmation bias. Sure.
I was just giving an idea of where my mind was at and what the state of the game was looking like to me.

And it's not like you're anyone to talk about tunneling, Mr. "All reads should be based on how they interact with snowy who is obviously scum and anyone who thinks differently is scum"

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#2580 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 25, 2018 6:51 pm

TrPrado wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 6:48 pm
And it's not like you're anyone to talk about tunneling, Mr. "All reads should be based on how they interact with snowy who is obviously scum and anyone who thinks differently is scum"
You can accuse me of being a hypocrite if you like, but you can't say you've not been tunnelling me.

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