MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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ghug
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1241 Post by ghug » Mon May 14, 2018 3:02 pm

I think pushing to lynch Ike right now is far more likely to come from someone on his team (i.e. scum prefer someone else doing it if he's town, are more willing to step outside the lines knowing they'll look good later if he's scum).

##VOTE Telamor

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1242 Post by RagingIke297 » Mon May 14, 2018 3:05 pm

ghug wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 2:56 pm
@Jamie, teacher's case on me was pretty good. I townread him heavily for it before his death. It's wrong, as really I just cooled off on snowy, but y'all have no way of knowing that. The Prado connection I found less compelling.
RagingIke297 wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 2:52 pm
ghug wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 2:49 pm
I mean, if they're gonna keep not roleblocking anyone as long as we leave him alive, I'm OK with that trade.
Three people still haven't posted, how certain are you scum didn't roleblock anyone ghug?
I'm not certain, but the odds are low that anyone's gonna claim it at this point.
17% is pretty low, but not low enough that I would make assumptions that it didn't happen

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1243 Post by ghug » Mon May 14, 2018 3:22 pm

All three of our non-posters:
a) check the site frequently enough that they'd know by now, and presumably would have taken the time to inform us
b) don't seem like particularly likely targets

Thus I think the odds are probably more like 5%. Even lower because you seem intent on catching me in something here, which suggests you roleblocked teacher or nobody. :razz:

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1244 Post by rdrivera2005 » Mon May 14, 2018 3:33 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 1:08 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 1:03 pm
@Jamiet - Ezio could be lurking but he isn't a low skilled scum, he was MVP on M35 for scum. I also really dislike your appeal to emotion on "honouring" Teacher by following his reads. Following a static dead VT reads is a good way for scum to justify a town lynch.
You are right that Ezio has played well as scum in the past. Hmm. What do you make of his play this time? Still looks scummy to me. Your thoughts?

I am voting for Snowy. I think Snowy is scum. Do you think he is town? If you do, why do you think so?
I don't have a strong read on Ezio, he posted so little that it's hard to get something towny or scummy. What stood to me is that Teacher's read on him was based on a no-lynch vote with no reasoning, but for me that's just a joke vote as Ezio always vote no-lynch and knows that it won't happen. I understand Teacher reading this way because he is new, I don' understand your read, could you explain why you scumread Ezio?

About Snowy, I thought he was playing so obviously uninterested to avoid being killed N1 again, and it seems to me a more a towny thing to do. But after almost being lynched D2 I expect to see him change, otherwise I might have to re-evaluate this read. I also still think one of you is probably scum, as I can't see town x town x town on EOD2.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1245 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon May 14, 2018 3:34 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 1:03 pm
@Jamiet - Ezio could be lurking but he isn't a low skilled scum, he was MVP on M35 for scum. I also really dislike your appeal to emotion on "honouring" Teacher by following his reads. Following a static dead VT reads is a good way for scum to justify a town lynch.
I just want to come back and respond to one more thing that Rdrivera said. I think it's important.

You accuse me of an appeal to emotion. I steadfastly reject this attack. While Teacher was alive we could not be completely certain if his actions or reads were town motivated or scum motivated. Now Teacher is dead we know for sure that every read teacher gave, and every question Teacher asked, was honest, pure, and town-motivated. This does not mean that every assertion Teacher made suddenly becomes true - but it *does* change what we know about the motivation Teacher had when making those reads and asking those questions.

Thus, it is in town's interests that Teacher's reads, while they are only one phase old, are not discarded. It is strongly in town's interests that any questions Teacher asked, which did not receive an adequate response, must get a response now. Snowy and Thamrick in particular owe us responses. Ghug, I notice, has replied to my question. Thanks Ghug.

Too often in this game I have seen town harm itself by forgetting the information provided by dead townies - not just the info from their flip but the info from their posts.

This is not an appeal to emotion.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1246 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon May 14, 2018 3:41 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:33 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 1:08 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 1:03 pm
@Jamiet - Ezio could be lurking but he isn't a low skilled scum, he was MVP on M35 for scum. I also really dislike your appeal to emotion on "honouring" Teacher by following his reads. Following a static dead VT reads is a good way for scum to justify a town lynch.
You are right that Ezio has played well as scum in the past. Hmm. What do you make of his play this time? Still looks scummy to me. Your thoughts?

I am voting for Snowy. I think Snowy is scum. Do you think he is town? If you do, why do you think so?
I don't have a strong read on Ezio, he posted so little that it's hard to get something towny or scummy. What stood to me is that Teacher's read on him was based on a no-lynch vote with no reasoning, but for me that's just a joke vote as Ezio always vote no-lynch and knows that it won't happen. I understand Teacher reading this way because he is new, I don' understand your read, could you explain why you scumread Ezio?
I scumread Ezio because he voted Teacher on the basis, or so Ezio claimed, that Teacher had voted No Lynch without an explanation.

This was nonsense from Ezio on two grounds. First of all, he is the king of calling for a No Lynch, so for me the onus would be on him to explain why he disliked Teacher's No Lynch vote. Secondly and more importantly, he was lying. Teach had explained, in some detail and with clear reasoning, why he felt able to support a D1 No Lynch.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1247 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon May 14, 2018 3:43 pm

I also found Ezio's over-reaction on Page 21 to having votes on him quite scummy

One or two other things - but I've made my case in my Ezio re-read and my Teacher re-read. Go and study them if you wish to learn more.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1248 Post by rdrivera2005 » Mon May 14, 2018 3:44 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:34 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 1:03 pm
@Jamiet - Ezio could be lurking but he isn't a low skilled scum, he was MVP on M35 for scum. I also really dislike your appeal to emotion on "honouring" Teacher by following his reads. Following a static dead VT reads is a good way for scum to justify a town lynch.
I just want to come back and respond to one more thing that Rdrivera said. I think it's important.

You accuse me of an appeal to emotion. I steadfastly reject this attack. While Teacher was alive we could not be completely certain if his actions or reads were town motivated or scum motivated. Now Teacher is dead we know for sure that every read teacher gave, and every question Teacher asked, was honest, pure, and town-motivated. This does not mean that every assertion Teacher made suddenly becomes true - but it *does* change what we know about the motivation Teacher had when making those reads and asking those questions.

Thus, it is in town's interests that Teacher's reads, while they are only one phase old, are not discarded. It is strongly in town's interests that any questions Teacher asked, which did not receive an adequate response, must get a response now. Snowy and Thamrick in particular owe us responses. Ghug, I notice, has replied to my question. Thanks Ghug.

Too often in this game I have seen town harm itself by forgetting the information provided by dead townies - not just the info from their flip but the info from their posts.

This is not an appeal to emotion.
This is something I can agree. When I talked about appeal to emotion I was referring to this specific phrase:
You should all honour the memory of Teacher2 by joining me and DemonRHK by voting for Snowy.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1249 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon May 14, 2018 3:49 pm

Ok Rdr, fair enough.

At this point, who are your top three scumreads?

How do you regard Thamrick and TrPrado?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1250 Post by DrCJG » Mon May 14, 2018 4:28 pm

Sorry for the limited posting over the last 24 hours, between mothers day and the fact that I am closing on my first house tomorrow I have not taken the time to post but have been following along.

First, I did not get RB'd. Is it common for no one to claim RB'd? Is there a reason why someone who was RB'd would not announce it? I ask because I feel like I am missing a piece of logic... why would the mafia not either RB someone they suspect of being a PR or withhold the RB and have one of them claim to have been RB'd to gain towncred?

Second, based on reviewing the voting I do think it is more likely that Snowy and Jamie are either both town or both scum. Unfortunately, Jamie has grown more and more townish to me as he has become more active and seems to be asking good questions to try and keep us from stalling again while Snowy has continued to slide more scummy with his limited posts and general attitude. Still neither have done anything that makes me confident about the other. Therefore, I am ok with lynching snowy as there is a good chance he is scum and if he is not, at least i will trust Jamie more. ##VOTE Snowy

Third, yav is still at the top of my scumlist. No one seemed to want to join me on this in D2 so I am going to drop it until he provides another alignment indicator, but I would still happily join a wagon to lynch him.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1251 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon May 14, 2018 4:33 pm

DrCJG wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 4:28 pm

First, I did not get RB'd. Is it common for no one to claim RB'd?
Quite often, the Mafia Roleblock the target of their Nightkill, especially when the Doctor is still in play - to eliminate the chance of the Doctor self-saving. That's especially likely in this setup as they will be attempting to hit PR, and we only have two of those.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1252 Post by DrCJG » Mon May 14, 2018 4:45 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 4:33 pm
Thanks, Jamiet. That makes sense, though the odds that any target (much less teacher) is a self-saving doctor seems relatively low.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1253 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon May 14, 2018 4:50 pm

DrCJG wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 4:45 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 4:33 pm
Thanks, Jamiet. That makes sense, though the odds that any target (much less teacher) is a self-saving doctor seems relatively low.
Yes, but if they don't have a good idea who the Cop is, what do they have to gain by roleblcoking a random VT?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1254 Post by ghug » Mon May 14, 2018 4:52 pm

DrC, you think Jamie and snowy have matching alignments, and you think Jamie is town, but you're voting snowy? Who would you vote for if we were lynching outside of those two?

Odds are low of successfully blocking the self-save, but they're low of being successful with any rb, and blocking your I doesn't give town a semi-clear like actually blocking does.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1255 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon May 14, 2018 4:52 pm

##Call GM

In this game, can the Hooker Roleblock the same target on successive nights?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1256 Post by Tom Bombadil » Mon May 14, 2018 4:55 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 4:52 pm
##Call GM

In this game, can the Hooker Roleblock the same target on successive nights?
Yes.
1

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1257 Post by DemonRHK » Mon May 14, 2018 5:04 pm

Telamor is now advocating lynching an unCCd PR.

...K.

---

So I'm 99.9% snowy is scum for reasons stated D1 and D2 along with an 11th hour save from the gallows

Balki saved snowy and faked a N1 rb to try to shade Ike

Telamor is FNG on the scumteam and has tried to markedly be more active after I called him out on his paralysis.

One or Fox/bo is our lurk scum. bo's entire readlist hinges on the assumption all three EoD2 wagons are town. Quik fuzzy maths says that's not likely (~37.6%), while Fox's read on me (specifically) says that he has leaning I am scum, so I am likely town. Who draws conclusions like that?

The fifth I'm not sure of. A lot of it depends on how right I am on the first four. Keeping with the reads, my thoughts are yavu/peter/ghug. Could be Dr trying to be a sleeper.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1258 Post by Foxcastle » Mon May 14, 2018 5:09 pm

DemonRHK wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 5:04 pm
One or Fox/bo is our lurk scum. bo's entire readlist hinges on the assumption all three EoD2 wagons are town. Quik fuzzy maths says that's not likely (~37.6%), while Fox's read on me (specifically) says that he has leaning I am scum, so I am likely town. Who draws conclusions like that?
I missed the joke phase, so I have to let that out somewhere. To clarify, when I read you, you sound scummy, and when I step back, I can't justify that feeling for anything specific you've said or done. You're pretty far down my lynchlist.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1259 Post by ghug » Mon May 14, 2018 5:39 pm

I'm with Fox there. I hate every post you make, but I still feel like you're probably town.

Did you scumread Balki before the snowy save? Why is Balki the most suspicious to you of those on stressed? It seems like if you're going to be suspicious of that wagon, it's of the sudden late switch, which Balki wasn't a part of.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1260 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Mon May 14, 2018 5:40 pm

##vote ghug

I'm pretty sure about this one. ghug knows why.

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