MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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Jamiet99uk
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1121 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 13, 2018 2:17 pm

I think in the morning RagingIke should declare which PR he claims to be.

I remain of the opinion that he is VT.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1122 Post by rdrivera2005 » Sun May 13, 2018 2:36 pm

I was going to make a big post to contest Bo's bullshit but Teacher have done it and probably a lid better then me.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1123 Post by Foxcastle » Sun May 13, 2018 2:44 pm

Still catching up, but some Day/Night 1 thoughts.

RagingIke looks like scum to me. I've never played with him before I don't think, but it looks to me like he's asking questions to ask questions rather than get answers. And then there's the whole PR claim. If I had been voting, that would have cemented my vote on him. I know, I know, <clutches pearls> "we can't risk mislynching a town PR!", but I have yet to see that actually be a problem, whereas I have seen actual town PR's go to their mislynch without a claim, and scum should always claim a PR, and they should always do it late when there's no room to discuss. Ike's play in the leadup to EOD didn't convince me he was a PR, it looked more like a VT or scum trying to stay alive.

I'm leaning town on Balki. On meta, he seems to be doing more of his own scumhunting, as opposed to the last game he was scum in when he was always pushing others for reads to make it look like he was generating action. But the random voting idea was dumb and more helpful to scum (generating noise) than town, but I think town-Balki could have put that out there to generate discussion. Ike took him up on that idea pretty quickly, too. Balki and Ike have a long conversation over pages 11-13, and a few other interactions—mainly that come across as Balki scumreading Ike and pushing him for info—that I'm still thinking about, but that don't strike me as scum-scum. Balki and Ike both seem like good enough players to manage that conversation as SvS if they have to, but I don't think they had to.

Why kill Xorxes? Is he really a fearkill who was going to swing into action and solve game after a few more days? I haven't played with him enough to know. He was involved in the game but hardly making big waves. The scumteam don't want to kill lurkers or uncertain newbies (Teacher doesn't seem uncertain), or anyone who seems like they could be an easy lynch later (which is nearly anyone). I'd say they don't want to kill anyone "on the right track," but I seriously doubt that's ever been a day 1 threat. I wonder if they just killed Xorxes because everyone will say "welp, fearkill!" and that meets their requirements for a low-information NK.

But if they actually RB'd Balki (and since I think he's town, I think they did), I wonder if it was deliberate because they knew how many people would find that supsicous and jump on the theory that Balki was scum and they had holstered the RB so he could claim? Or if they thought Balki was playing confidently enough that he might actually be a PR (though I think Balki plays pretty confidently all the time).

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1124 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sun May 13, 2018 2:54 pm

Doc on me tonight please.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1125 Post by Foxcastle » Sun May 13, 2018 2:59 pm

@Teacher, you've been super active, and I think I recall you said this was your first WebDip mafia game, but you'd played a long time ago on PBEM. Is that also a forum like this? How similar was the interface/players/vernacular/etc? How long ago were you active there?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1126 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 13, 2018 3:06 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 2:59 pm
@Teacher, you've been super active, and I think I recall you said this was your first WebDip mafia game, but you'd played a long time ago on PBEM. Is that also a forum like this? How similar was the interface/players/vernacular/etc? How long ago were you active there?
PBEM stands for "Play By E-Mail" I believe.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1127 Post by Foxcastle » Sun May 13, 2018 3:15 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 3:06 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 2:59 pm
@Teacher, you've been super active, and I think I recall you said this was your first WebDip mafia game, but you'd played a long time ago on PBEM. Is that also a forum like this? How similar was the interface/players/vernacular/etc? How long ago were you active there?
PBEM stands for "Play By E-Mail" I believe.
Given how chaotic this forum is with quoting functions, play by email sounds like a nightmare...

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1128 Post by thamrick » Sun May 13, 2018 3:50 pm

Playing mafia on weekends, especially holiday weekends where I also have to work, sucks.

Haven't had time to do an in depth EoD analysis. teacher brings up some good points in his last post. I was townreading Jamie and a townlean on Snowy, but a scum save is a possibility for how that wagon happened so quickly. Admittedly, I didn't have great reason for voting Stressed in particular, I just saw it as an alternative to Jamie and Snowy who I thought were probably both town.

Heading in to work again in 10 mins so sorry for the brevity.

Town to scum:

teacher
Balki
darg
Jamie
yavuzovic
rdrivera
DrCJG
Ezio
Telamor
ghug
RHK
TrPrado
snowy
peterlund

I left off bo and Foxy until we get more info. Very little from either previous slot. I left off Ike because I still feel like there's no way we should lynch him. I keep going back and forth about whether I believe him or not.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1129 Post by yavuzovic » Sun May 13, 2018 4:03 pm

Everybody is townreading Jamie but nobody shows evidence or reason.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1130 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sun May 13, 2018 4:04 pm

yavuzovic wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 4:03 pm
Everybody is townreading Jamie but nobody shows evidence or reason.
Can you explain why you think he’s scum? I’m listening.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1131 Post by yavuzovic » Sun May 13, 2018 4:07 pm

Yesterday's voting history should be enough to scumread him. Okay, now you...

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1132 Post by peterlund » Sun May 13, 2018 4:15 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm
I give Jamie credit both for not knowing about stressed’s silent snowy vote (a detail scum would know about) and for trying to make some lynch go through.
I am 100% confident that Jamie was 100% aware of the invisible Stressed vote on Snowy. This guy lives for MAFIA and all the detail of any game. He made his move Snowy -> Stressed to save Snowy and kill Stressed. Jamie is SCUM.
teacher2 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm
But what if ghug knew the fact, but wanted to have some cover for getting away from snowy?
ghug is no newbie, infact he is a mafia PRO. You can safely assume that ghug had the Stressed vote fully under control.
teacher2 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm
(snowy, ghug, tham, balki). Stunningly this analysis is consistent with the reads of D1, N1, and so for all game. If Ike is not PR, it would tank this.
I agree on Snowy, ghug and balki being 3/5 of the scum team. Then we have Jamie, bo (chaqa) and tham for the 2 last spots in the scum team. I would put Jamie in there. Ike's tham observation of the use of "copscan" and tham having Balki as his second town read, suggest that thamrick is the 5th member.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1133 Post by peterlund » Sun May 13, 2018 4:22 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 2:54 pm
Doc on me tonight please.
Scum Balki need no doc save.
It is Teacher, Rdrivera or I that need that Doc save.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1134 Post by peterlund » Sun May 13, 2018 4:25 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 3:15 pm
Given how chaotic this forum is with quoting functions, play by email sounds like a nightmare...
If you find the quoting on this forum disturbing, try reading the thread on the bot instead. It shortens down the quotes when possible...

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1135 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 13, 2018 4:36 pm

Peter, you're hilarious.

Here, have a look at this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oysoioL6ZmY

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1136 Post by Foxcastle » Sun May 13, 2018 4:38 pm

peterlund wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 4:25 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 3:15 pm
Given how chaotic this forum is with quoting functions, play by email sounds like a nightmare...
If you find the quoting on this forum disturbing, try reading the thread on the bot instead. It shortens down the quotes when possible...
Oh, I rely on the Peterbot for nearly all my scumhunting :) The color coding of players is especially useful for the thread.

ALL HAIL THE PETERBOT

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1137 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 13, 2018 4:48 pm

I wonder if, for his next programming project, Peter could develop an AI Mafia player? That is, an AI that would take the role of a player in the Mafia game, and make posts as a human player would. I wonder if it would be possible?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1138 Post by RagingIke297 » Sun May 13, 2018 4:48 pm

peterlund wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 4:15 pm
teacher2 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm
I give Jamie credit both for not knowing about stressed’s silent snowy vote (a detail scum would know about) and for trying to make some lynch go through.
I am 100% confident that Jamie was 100% aware of the invisible Stressed vote on Snowy. This guy lives for MAFIA and all the detail of any game. He made his move Snowy -> Stressed to save Snowy and kill Stressed. Jamie is SCUM.
teacher2 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm
But what if ghug knew the fact, but wanted to have some cover for getting away from snowy?
ghug is no newbie, infact he is a mafia PRO. You can safely assume that ghug had the Stressed vote fully under control.
teacher2 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm
(snowy, ghug, tham, balki). Stunningly this analysis is consistent with the reads of D1, N1, and so for all game. If Ike is not PR, it would tank this.
I agree on Snowy, ghug and balki being 3/5 of the scum team. Then we have Jamie, bo (chaqa) and tham for the 2 last spots in the scum team. I would put Jamie in there. Ike's tham observation of the use of "copscan" and tham having Balki as his second town read, suggest that thamrick is the 5th member.

The copscan observation I had was with Telamor not Thamrick...

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1139 Post by peterlund » Sun May 13, 2018 4:52 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 4:48 pm
The copscan observation I had was with Telamor not Thamrick...
Yeah that is it. Telamor is the newbie, not Thamrick. I need to rethink who the 5th member could be.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1140 Post by bo_sox48 » Sun May 13, 2018 6:00 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm
But I view the lynch timing as incredibly informative. The second vote came 20 minutes before the deadline; the third only 2 minutes, yet stressed ended with six votes. I don’t see that many people getting to stressed so quick – especially off of other leading and possible wagons – unless at least one of the other wagons is mafia with mafia having gotten on planning to deboard in the EoD rush.
Your theory here, as I see it, is that snowy is scum and both Balki and ghug, if not some combination of the other Stressed voters as well, came around to save him. I explained, perhaps not in enough detail (but I once again made the mistake of assuming that people are smart), why that doesn't make sense:

• Snowy led the voting 5-4-2 over Jamie and Tel when Balki started the Stressed counterwagon. Why did Balki not go after either Jamie or Tel, or even any one of the other 1-vote wagons at this point? Why Stressed? If you insist that he had a clear motive for making this move, you not only are responsible for proving that Balki wanted to save snowy but also for finding the reason why he tried to save snowy the way that he did. I can't find one.
• Why do you think the waited until there were 2 minutes left in the day to do this? Ghug, snowy, and Jamie were all online before, and you correctly mentioned that the latter two on that list are at worst NAI in this instance. If ghug was part of this effort to save snowy, why wait so long? Why jump back and forth? How does the evidence at hand necessarily demonstrate his motivation to save snowy?

I don't see how Balki's attempt to put some fire under a counterwagon 20 minutes before the EOD anything but townie. He stuck his neck out where nobody else had been willing to for an hour. The EOD was totally stagnant. This is what a good townie does, and while you can argue that Balki knows that a good townie does that and might do it as scum too, why would he when he doesn't have to?

I'm a lot less certain on ghug, but I don't see scum ghug floundering like that at the EOD. I could see him hedging his read, though, so if it turns out that either he or snowy is scum, that lends a lot of credence to the idea that the other is scum. I just don't see snowy being scum, though, so I can't use that to my advantage against ghug.

Is there anything that you said that I'm misstating or other misinterpreting that you want to clarify? I hope there is, because we're not even on the same wavelength otherwise.
While there are 2 sets possible 2 member scum teams there, Im just not inclined to see it. In other words, I think the timing alone rules out bo_sox’s option A.

I have no idea what you mean by this. Can you explain it?
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 2:36 pm
I was going to make a big post to contest Bo's bullshit but Teacher have done it and probably a lid better then me.
No, please do. I can't read you and neither can anyone else if you let someone else do your dirty work. Come at me with what you've got or get the fuck out of the game.

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