MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1101 Post by bo_sox48 » Sat May 12, 2018 11:49 pm

Do I dare look at my role PM...

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1102 Post by RagingIke297 » Sun May 13, 2018 12:03 am

@Jamie Why did you switch with your life on the line?

@snowyWhy did you switch with your life on the line?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1103 Post by snowy801 » Sun May 13, 2018 12:29 am

it seemed like I'd be lynched over Jamiet and this sudden emergence seemed like my only hope

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1104 Post by RagingIke297 » Sun May 13, 2018 12:38 am

snowy801 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:29 am
it seemed like I'd be lynched over Jamiet and this sudden emergence seemed like my only hope
Lets assume Jamie doesn't move, day ends,vote is tied 5-5. What happens then?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1105 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sun May 13, 2018 12:45 am

@Snowy, I wanted you alive because you’re a really good town player when you want to be. But, of course the consensus is true that you haven’t been trying yet. If I see the same on Day 3, I’ll be among those driving your wagon.

@rdrivera, does Stressedline’s flip really change your view of me so much? You use very vague language to say “Town X is better than this.” What does that mean? It’s not my first bad read as Town, and I don’t think anyone made a compelling case on Jamiet or Snowy. I’d rather lead a lynch (as I know it’s lead by Town) then just follow along a wagon for which I don’t buy the logic.

Granted Stressed turned out to be a VT, and that’s too bad. But, frankly, it’s not a huge loss for Town, and you should evaluate my process, not the result.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1106 Post by thamrick » Sun May 13, 2018 12:52 am

@rdr - criticize all you want, but were you really content with a lynch of Hamie or Snowy? I wasn’t. There was really no effort to save either of them and it was in a range where if either of them were scum, there was cause for concern. Particularly snowy (obviously) since he was in the lead. But iirc, it was 6-4 with still like 5 people not voting and several on wagons of 1. Look at how stale the 40 mins or so before the last 5 mins were. Scum were content to let snowy at least, and likely Jamie hang.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1107 Post by DemonRHK » Sun May 13, 2018 12:54 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:45 am
Granted Stressed turned out to be a VT, and that’s too bad. But, frankly, it’s not a huge loss for Town, and you should evaluate my process, not the result.
“Lol guis my bad he flipped town haha isn’t that so wierd?? But it’s not my fault he just played bad.”

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1108 Post by thamrick » Sun May 13, 2018 12:56 am

I am pretty surprised Jamie moved though. Don’t really understand that one.

@Jamie - how closely were you able to follow the votes in the last 10 mins or so? Did you see all the votes in real time before your vote?

@Telamor - explain your associative reads here. I get the Peter/Prado link, but explain what you’re seeing for the rest.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1109 Post by rdrivera2005 » Sun May 13, 2018 1:33 am

thamrick wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:52 am
@rdr - criticize all you want, but were you really content with a lynch of Hamie or Snowy? I wasn’t. There was really no effort to save either of them and it was in a range where if either of them were scum, there was cause for concern. Particularly snowy (obviously) since he was in the lead. But iirc, it was 6-4 with still like 5 people not voting and several on wagons of 1. Look at how stale the 40 mins or so before the last 5 mins were. Scum were content to let snowy at least, and likely Jamie hang.
So, explain me why you are content with Stressed lynch? What info we got from this lynch other then a bunch of people jumped on him at last minute without any case other then "let´s lynch a random lurker". Why not Chaga that was lurking even more and it´s not a newbie?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1110 Post by rdrivera2005 » Sun May 13, 2018 1:37 am

DemonRHK wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:54 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:45 am
Granted Stressed turned out to be a VT, and that’s too bad. But, frankly, it’s not a huge loss for Town, and you should evaluate my process, not the result.
“Lol guis my bad he flipped town haha isn’t that so wierd?? But it’s not my fault he just played bad.”
I am evaluating your process, you choose a random lurker that already have an anchored vote and wasn´t online, who can´t even claim if he were a PR and push a wagon on him with less then 20 minutes to go and Tham seems to believe that miraculously only town joined it as scum was happy to lynch Snowy or Jamiet.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1111 Post by TrPrado » Sun May 13, 2018 1:52 am

RagingIke297 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:38 am
snowy801 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:29 am
it seemed like I'd be lynched over Jamiet and this sudden emergence seemed like my only hope
Lets assume Jamie doesn't move, day ends,vote is tied 5-5. What happens then?
Probably should be noted there wasn't a tie. The bot shows there would have been because it doesn't count Stressed's vote. It was 6-5 to kill snowy before Jamie switched.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1112 Post by DemonRHK » Sun May 13, 2018 2:19 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:37 am
DemonRHK wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:54 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:45 am
Granted Stressed turned out to be a VT, and that’s too bad. But, frankly, it’s not a huge loss for Town, and you should evaluate my process, not the result.
“Lol guis my bad he flipped town haha isn’t that so wierd?? But it’s not my fault he just played bad.”
I am evaluating your process, you choose a random lurker that already have an anchored vote and wasn´t online, who can´t even claim if he were a PR and push a wagon on him with less then 20 minutes to go and Tham seems to believe that miraculously only town joined it as scum was happy to lynch Snowy or Jamiet.
Is this at me? Cause I’ve been saying snowy is scum since mid day 1.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1113 Post by bo_sox48 » Sun May 13, 2018 3:59 am

I haven't read anything but I tried to follow the EOD after Tom told me he may need me and it is pretty plain to see that there are few options here:

a) snowy is town, Jamie is town. Push on Stressed was genuine.
b) snowy is scum, Jamie is town. Why push Stressed over Jamie?
c) snowy is town, Jamie is scum. Why stick your neck out to push Stressed?
d) snowy is scum, Jamie is scum. Push on Stressed was to save both.

The realistic option is a). Option b) makes little sense, unless someone can point to concrete reasons why the people that pushed Stress did so over pushing Jamie. Option c) makes even less sense, because there was no need to do anything at all, unless mafia thought Stressed was a PR...? Option d) doesn't make sense unless the mafia team wasn't online for the last what, 12 hours of the day, and didn't elect to give their teammates any support until 20 minutes before EOD. I don't buy that. So I'm leaning town on snowy and Jamie, and I'm leaning town-led on Stressedlines' lynch. That doesn't mean a few scum members couldn't have jumped on board, but I doubt Balki in particular is mafia.
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:33 am
What info we got from this lynch other then a bunch of people jumped on him at last minute without any case other then "let´s lynch a random lurker".
If you can't gleam any information from this lynch, you aren't looking at the game objectively or analytically. An active EOD is an informative EOD, and there will always be more information revealed about things as time goes on. What do you see going on here thus far?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1114 Post by Ezio » Sun May 13, 2018 6:47 am

Snowy looks very townie. I like that wagon on stressedlines, but I would have preferred a wagon on Jamie or Tel.

I don't buy Jamie and Snowy are scum. Everyone who voted Stressed needs to give us all a detailed explanation of why they voted him instead of Jamiet.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1115 Post by yavuzovic » Sun May 13, 2018 6:54 am

Perfect lynch! You did a great job. I thought you were professionals guys, what you had to lynch Stressed! He was quiet, and there were more obvious scummies. I still think snowy is scum but now I think Jamie is his scumfriend. If Jamie wasn't scum and he thought snowy is scum (while voting him), he wouldn't change his vote.

Are we going to LyLo or MyLo after this night.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1116 Post by yavuzovic » Sun May 13, 2018 6:59 am

Ezio wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 6:47 am
Snowy looks very townie. I like that wagon on stressedlines, but I would have preferred a wagon on Jamie or Tel.

I don't buy Jamie and Snowy are scum. Everyone who voted Stressed needs to give us all a detailed explanation of why they voted him instead of Jamiet.
Are you rescuing snowy. I consider voting him tomorrow and if he rolls scum, you will be the next lynch!

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1117 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 13, 2018 12:56 pm

RagingIke297 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:03 am
@Jamie Why did you switch with your life on the line?

@snowyWhy did you switch with your life on the line?
I already explained why I switched to Stressed.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1118 Post by thamrick » Sun May 13, 2018 12:56 pm

I agree with bo. I think it only makes sense if Jamie and snowy are both town (or possibly both scum, but I'm pretty sure Jamie is town. Less sure about snowy, but still think he's town).

Welcome to the game bo and Foxy! Definite upgrades over the previous slots.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1119 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 13, 2018 12:58 pm

TrPrado wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:52 am
RagingIke297 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:38 am
snowy801 wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:29 am
it seemed like I'd be lynched over Jamiet and this sudden emergence seemed like my only hope
Lets assume Jamie doesn't move, day ends,vote is tied 5-5. What happens then?
Probably should be noted there wasn't a tie. The bot shows there would have been because it doesn't count Stressed's vote. It was 6-5 to kill snowy before Jamie switched.
Shit really? I really thought there was a tie. :sick:

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1120 Post by teacher2 » Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm

Im not doing readlists on all players, in part because its Mothers Day weekend and I don’t have time, and in part because the game has advanced enough that Im not sure its necessary. I probably will post one late Monday if I make it to D3.

I am going to try to make sense of the lynch first. Stressed’s slot had basically no content and a snowy vote. (the snowy vote isn’t registered in the bot, but is important to the analysis.) I can understand townies thinking stressed could be a first-time scum trying to hide; scum thinking it was a first time PR trying to hide; or it simply being a compromise. In short, I view the lynch target itself as relatively NAI for voters.

But I view the lynch timing as incredibly informative. The second vote came 20 minutes before the deadline; the third only 2 minutes, yet stressed ended with six votes. I don’t see that many people getting to stressed so quick – especially off of other leading and possible wagons – unless at least one of the other wagons is mafia with mafia having gotten on planning to deboard in the EoD rush. The only other possible explanation is that townies concluded mafia were ok with the lynchpool. But Mafia would still want to be online end of day, and based on my mobile recollection of who was online, its only the stressed wagon plus PeterLund, DemonRHK, TrPado, and Teacher. While there are 2 sets possible 2 member scum teams there, Im just not inclined to see it. In other words, I think the timing alone rules out bo_sox’s option A.

Bottom line, this was scum movement, and so a scum save. So who is the mafia?

Jamie is actually the first to vote stressed, though he comes off and gets back on. The first vote comes whilst saying the scumteam is quite experienced, and picks stressed as a possible allied lurker from absence of content. Jamie then goes to snowy as both silent AND experienced. His return to Stressed comes right at Day end, and APPEARS to be the one (due to stressed’s silent snowy vote) that gets any lynch to go through. I give Jamie credit both for not knowing about stressed’s silent snowy vote (a detail scum would know about) and for trying to make some lynch go through.

The first on the final wagon, and the second stressed vote, is Telamor with an open pressure vote. Telamor’s D2 is a lot more active, but a bit odd. Ike gets credit for noticing “copscan” from a player who showed and claimed little knowledge. He also is remarkably defensive whenever people question him, scumming Ike and generally pointing out he is new and just getting his feet. He questions the votes on snowy multiple times as being based on not posting much, but later votes stressed for the same reasons. The decision to avoid a leading wagon (snowy) when his reasoning would support it is also ?.

Balki boards next, and much later. I find the RB claim interesting – could be scum trying to both gain towncred and motivate a PR lynch – starting the question why wasn’t PR claim RBed? (this theory works pretty well with a Xorxes nightkill too given Xorxes’s reads, and is independent of Ike’s alignment). To be sure, he could be town. But I view his hesitancy to board the snowy wagon as contrary to his play. All day he asks snowy to participate. Snowy doesn’t, and Balki still wont board the snowy wagon (explaining snowy could be good later and stressed is the most unhelpful lurker). This is the move I see as setting up the mislynch wagon for team to join.

Thamrick’s is the third vote on the wagon, with two minutes left. He explains this at night as not liking either wagon since scum had been letting them sit. But I truly don’t get the vote. He says he hasn’t been following the day, so likely doesn’t know about stressed’s silent vote. But he moves to a third slot WITH TWO MINUTES LEFT when the wagons are ostensibly tied and no lynch will go through. I don’t see this move from a town player as smart as Thamrick. I see this as purely defensive scum. Thamrick’s EoD/Night post – “I initially voted snowy” makes it even worse to be honest.

Ghug, the fourth to board the wagon, is perhaps the most interesting. Because he scummed snowy overnight and started the day voting snowy. But he moves to PeterLund (another overnight scum read) then Ezio (pressure while saying snowy should remain a wagon). The EoD posting flurry says the Jamie-Snowy wagons are BOTH lame before voting Jamie with five minutes left in a move he believes ties the Jamie-snowy wagons (it does not because of stressed). Yes, I know I said it is town indicative to not know this fact. But what if ghug knew the fact, but wanted to have some cover for getting away from snowy? Taking snowy out of the fire at this point seems like a save attempt.

Snowy is the fifth, and least interesting because it can be obvious self-preservation now that the Jamie wagon’s dying.

(snowy, ghug, tham, balki). Stunningly this analysis is consistent with the reads of D1, N1, and so for all game. If Ike is not PR, it would tank this.

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