M80 Game Thread

[worcej]

1. I really don't take chances as scum.
2. Not being able to precisely explain scum's decisions doesn't make me scum.
3. I did offer a plausible explanation. You even said you mostly agreed with it.

1. I disagree based off playing with you as scum. You go for the most optimum
2. Agree, but I am tired of 'I am town guys' as your counter-argument
3. I agree it's plausible, but it doesn't outweigh the need to flip you as I still believe it's possible you did get RB'ed on N1 and thus I got my action off.

I really don't give a shit what you're tired of, buddy. Anything's possible. There could have been no kill last night because they decided to holster. Dousing could be the navigator who forgot to read his role PM. What we're discussing here is likelihood, and if you think the most likely story is the one where I'm scum, fine, but you need to carefully consider whether the other nights make sense in that story, and stop acting like it's my job to read scum's minds.

I asked you for an explanation and you throw a fit because you don't like that I think poorly answered it. You can not care about it, but no need to escalate here. This isn't a 'hey, let's kill ghug because we can' push here - there is legit reason to believe you're scum here.

I think it's entirely possible you tried to jail me N1 and then strong-armed Eden N2 and the RB neutered you on N1. You haven't done much things to make me town you this game compared to prior games and I am willing to be wrong on you now to eliminate that concern about your slot going forward

Sorry it's mechanics driven primarily, but understand I was towning you early mostly because I thought you'd never be caught dead not jailing me and how you behave as scum but the N1 RB on you changes that immensely.

[brainbomb]

Current gamestate
Haze roleblocked ghug N1
ghug knew haze was a PR since N2
xcution was caught visiting haze N2
ghug begins d4 claiming vig shot on bona
Haze counter claims
ghug retracts

Sweet, brain, rivera, damo, worcej, Haze all begin voting Ghug
ghug proposes to just end hammer
sweet says stop asking for end hammers

sweet presents a theory that ghug couldnt have been scum because xcution visited Haze and that wouldnt make sense as a choice for how to use maf night actions

rivera moves vote off ghug back to bunny

brainbomb makes a case that sweet and cool is actually deep scum

kak shows up saying we should be hunting the suicide bomber

bunny and jamie have not weighed in on these thoughts

damo has not yet weighed in on sweets theory
dousing has not yet weighed in on sweets theory

that is where the game is at

[worcej]

METHODOLOGY

I cleanse my mind of this game. It is N1 and I am scum. What are my team actions for tonight?

Am I assuming what you do or what I'd do?

[ghug]

METHODOLOGY

I cleanse my mind of this game. It is N1 and I am scum. What are my team actions for tonight?

Am I assuming what you do or what I'd do?

You're a notoriously poor empathizer so I'd recommend yourself

[worcej]

METHODOLOGY

I cleanse my mind of this game. It is N1 and I am scum. What are my team actions for tonight?

Am I assuming what you do or what I'd do?

You're a notoriously poor empathizer so I'd recommend yourself

ghug - all cards on the table, not a great time in my life for this razz

[brainbomb]

Is there anything else to recap for everyone who hasnt been around?

anything were forgetting

[sweetandcool]

I know worcej is a PR. I have strong reason to believe either President Eden or brainbomb is Quartermaster.

I look through the mech page. I would like to kill an outed PR, worcej, but I note that town has the following powers: Priest has Doctor, Navigator has Jail and Commute, Captain has watch.

Because worcej is outed, I know they are a likely target for these actions. If I were to strongman worcej, then I don't have to worry about Doctor, Jail. Commute will save worcej, but my power will be refunded, so I shouldn't be very bothered by that possibility. My worst fear is that the Captain will watch worcej, causing one member of team Mafia to be exposed. The only way to defeat the Watch power is to ninja worcej, but that gets negated by Jail or Doctor. I could drive a kill onto worcej, but then the watcher will see the kill and after the result is revealed will even know I used the drive ability as well as exposing a team Mafia member. Drive is also wasted on jail targets.

Since worcej is likely to be watched, and probably even be the target of one or more saving actions, targeting them seems unpalatable. Not targeting them means that any actions that Town throw at worcej will be wasted, and it seems quite likely that will happen, how juicy.

Between President Eden and brainbomb, there is a likely Quartermaster. Since it's easier to make a fake claim rather than shut up about a CC, it seems more likely that brainbomb is Quartermaster*. Because we are unsure who the Quartermaster is, we will jail brain, unless Town gives it away before end of night. We are comfortable with jailing brain because jail supercedes the watch power, which is the only power to fear here, plus worcej is the likely jail target.

What other powers do we have to generally fear from town? Informant, cop and track. RB could be annoying but it likely won't give Town much information if successful. We hope jailing brain takes care of Informant for the night. We can't defend against cop and just have to hope they miss or we get lucky and kill the Navigator, whoever that is (33% chance worcej is, but we're not targeting them because it's too risky). We can mitigate track by only using jail and the factional kill (or ninja kill to really mitigate it.

Probability we are caught by informant, assuming the power is used (do factional kills get a PM? I am assuming no here): 0% actually. So is jailing Brain logical?

Probability we are caught by cop, assuming power use and brain not cop: 4/14* or 2/7 or .2856 or 28.56%.

Probability of caught by track, same assumptions: 2/14 or 1/7 or .1428 or 14.28%

[All math done in head, I am smart Mafia and enjoy flexing]

And even with track, it's a 7.14% chance we outright get outted.

If we are worried we can ninja, making a 7.14% chance of getting tracked and a 0% chance of being outted outright.

So, not feeling great about the cop, but there's nothing we can really do unless we want to risk targeting worcej and hope that worcej is Navigator. We could jail worcej, but that would actually just increase his chances of a successful scan on N2, if he were even the navigator in the first place.

Now, who to kill? [I haven't played Mafia before, so I'm not going to speculate on why a pyxxy kill specifically, there were other fine targets as well, I am sure].

As long as the kill is likely to be safe, we are happy [might be more than that, but probably the priority].

We are also going to be happy to see Town use their best powers when their chances of success are lowest and when we are not targeting worcej. If all goes well, we will be able to really mess Town up with all of our saved abilities.

We will also shorten day because nobody can catch us doing that, and it will make things tougher for town.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

END OF THOUGHT EXPERIMENT

Do you all really think this thought process is impossible for team Mafia? It's not even a cut and dried example of poor play. It is reasonable.

[sweetandcool]

During my thought experiment there was one thing I wasn't quite satisfied with:

The reasoning behind jailing brain.

I townread brain, but I can't analyze their threads.

But the explanation that makes the most sense to me, given my thought experiment, is that brain is lying about being jailed or Mafia jailed brain just to mess with us.

Those are the only two possibilities that make sense to me.

[sweetandcool]

METHODOLOGY

I cleanse my mind of this game. It is N1 and I am scum. What are my team actions for tonight?

Am I assuming what you do or what I'd do?

Hmm, how about what scum would do? That was my thought process.

If you think I'm Mafia, feel free to do the thought experiment from my perspective, I guess.

[sweetandcool]

For those wondering about the probabilities I generated: I removed President Eden, brainbomb, bozo, and worcej from the pool of track/informant possibilities,along my denominator

And just typing this makes me realize that the denominator should be 13 because I actually didn't subtract bozo. And I should have removed 1 more because tracker/informant wouldn't target themselves.

Wish I could edit, probabilities will be a bit higher in all cases. So much for being able to do math.

[brainbomb]

Ill let you choose your own adventure for mine:

A. Driver shenanigans
B. An absent wolf
C. A scumteam divided
D. Technical difficulties
E. The double Jailor bondage adventure

[sweetandcool]

For those wondering about the probabilities I generated: I removed President Eden, brainbomb, bozo, and worcej from the pool of track/informant possibilities,along my denominator

And just typing this makes me realize that the denominator should be 13 because I actually didn't subtract bozo. And I should have removed 1 more because tracker/informant wouldn't target themselves.

Wish I could edit, probabilities will be a bit higher in all cases. So much for being able to do math.

So probabilities should be:

Cop: 2/12 or 2/13 if worcej, President Eden, or brain are cop.

Track: 2/12 (if President Eden, worcej or brainbomb have track ability it is 2/13).

[sweetandcool]

Ill let you choose your own adventure for mine:

A. Driver shenanigans
B. An absent wolf
C. A scumteam divided
D. Technical difficulties
E. The double Jailor bondage adventure

B, C, D are all good ways to explain it without ghug being Mafia.

A doesn't make any sense, and I'm not discussing it with you particularly because I don't want the same treatment as Jamiet and I don't trust your thoughts process in regards to N1 drive possibility.

E I am not sure what that is.

[sweetandcool]

For those wondering about the probabilities I generated: I removed President Eden, brainbomb, bozo, and worcej from the pool of track/informant possibilities,along my denominator

And just typing this makes me realize that the denominator should be 13 because I actually didn't subtract bozo. And I should have removed 1 more because tracker/informant wouldn't target themselves.

Wish I could edit, probabilities will be a bit higher in all cases. So much for being able to do math.

So probabilities should be:

Cop: 2/12 or 2/13 if worcej, President Eden, or brain are cop.

Track: 2/12 (if President Eden, worcej or brainbomb have track ability it is 2/13).

Screw me, it's 4/12 or 4/13 for cop. Editing would be so nice here.

[sweetandcool]

Ill let you choose your own adventure for mine:

A. Driver shenanigans
B. An absent wolf
C. A scumteam divided
D. Technical difficulties
E. The double Jailor bondage adventure

Use seem really invested in proving me wrong. So invested that you are starting to suggest theories that don't even align with the "ghug is Mafia" stance you are currently in.

[brainbomb]

You didnt even ask me to say what any of the scenarios actually have.

do you wanna play this game or not

pick one and the answer may surprise you.

[brainbomb]

I never even elaborated on who the scumteams were in any of them or what specific events occurred in them.

[brainbomb]

Ill let you choose your own adventure for mine:

A. Driver shenanigans
B. An absent wolf
C. A scumteam divided
D. Technical difficulties
E. The double Jailor bondage adventure

Use seem really invested in proving me wrong. So invested that you are starting to suggest theories that don't even align with the "ghug is Mafia" stance you are currently in.

that would be the opposite of tunneling. in fact some of these scenarios do not involve you or ghug being mafia at all

[ghug]

You didnt even ask me to say what any of the scenarios actually have.

do you wanna play this game or not

pick one and the answer may surprise you.

I'd like to hear more about E.

Do you think sweet's explanation of avoiding worcej is implausible?

[ghug]

Hi Dousing.