MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

I am back and will try to answer any questions directed at me in the backscroll now!

Starting with:

Thank you

Also I’m guessing Damo will ask now if your belief worcej is scum is because you’re the doctor.

No, my believe worcej is Mafia is based on the following:

- so I think it's pretty clear to everyone involved that I am willing to vote worcej, right?

- great... so now, let's assume for a second that worcej is indeed the Doctor

- am I understanding it correctly that Doctor is the best one to kill for the Mafia?

- if so, wouldn't it be oh-so-easy for Mafia to pretend they believe my many arguments suspecting worcej, jump on that bandwagon, and we have 4 worcej votes

- then, they both get worcej dead *and* tee up an easy frame for myself. 2 wins in one play

...

but this hasn't happened – which means, either all the Mafia are really bad at this game, or there must be another reason – right?

Let's try some simple logic then:

Posit one: There are exactly 3 PRs in the game (and all are still extant).
Posit two: The PRs win when town wins so should at least be trying to help town as best they can.
Posit three: Exactly 3 people have claimed they are PRs

Theorem 1: Nobody claiming VT is actually a secret PR.

Proof: This would be harming town by misleading us, and if/when they change their claim later we would not believe them and miskill them; this would again harm town violating Posit two.

Theorem 2: if bo claims VT, then worcej MUST be town.

Proof: See Posit one and Theorem 1.

So: do you have a specific reason to suspect that bo is a PR?

[BunnyGo]

A non-specfic PR claimant voting another non-specific PR claimant when there are only 3 PR claimants is bizarre in the extreme.

I don't understand. It's only bizarre in the extreme if you believe everyone's claims, no? But aren't at least 3 claims lies, like, by definition?

I mean, if you just believe the claims, I seriously don't get how this game works. Say I am Mafia next time – why wouldn't I just hardclaim Doctor ASAP? I think I'm missing something here.

They could have, and then things would be different and we'd have a reason to consider which doctor claimant was telling the truth (when things are different, they aren't the same)...but no PR would claim VT. And everyone but bo has claimed at this point.

[BunnyGo]

It is not clear from KoalaAttack's posts that he had read BunnyGo's PR claim yet.

OK

No folks, I saw them – I just seriously don't understand what is the deal with this claiming business being taken at face value with at least 3 liars in the group by definition. Is there some weird Mafia ethics, or some common mechanic that I'm just flat out missing here?

Please explain.

The thing you're missing is that everyone else claimed VT. We know for a fact that there are actually 3 PRs, 3 Scum, and everyone else VT. We know for a fact that PRs and VTs will tell the truth on their claims. Ipso Facto, anyone lying chose to lie by saying they're VTs (bo excepted so far).

But by the pigeonhole principle, at most one of you, me, worcej can be lying--and for other reasons it's most likely we're all telling the truth.

[worcej]

It is not clear from KoalaAttack's posts that he had read BunnyGo's PR claim yet.

OK

No folks, I saw them – I just seriously don't understand what is the deal with this claiming business being taken at face value with at least 3 liars in the group by definition. Is there some weird Mafia ethics, or some common mechanic that I'm just flat out missing here?

Please explain.

The logic here is scum are going to claim VT to be in the highest pool of town. Being in a pool of 6 is better than the PR pool.

Let’s say one scum claims PR, then there is a 25% chance that scum gets caught and what happens is the PR group moves into claiming roles at this point and explaining actions. Of importance is that the PR group is the group that scum are going to want to kill in, so if one claims in there it limits their kill options.

[KoalaAttack]

A non-specfic PR claimant voting another non-specific PR claimant when there are only 3 PR claimants is bizarre in the extreme.

I don't understand. It's only bizarre in the extreme if you believe everyone's claims, no? But aren't at least 3 claims lies, like, by definition?

I mean, if you just believe the claims, I seriously don't get how this game works. Say I am Mafia next time – why wouldn't I just hardclaim Doctor ASAP? I think I'm missing something here.

They could have, and then things would be different and we'd have a reason to consider which doctor claimant was telling the truth (when things are different, they aren't the same)...but no PR would claim VT. And everyone but bo has claimed at this point.

Hmm... You only get 2 Doctor claims if there is one. What is the probability % of a specific PR role being in this game? 6 possible PR roles, only 3 get used. 50% once the dust settles, no?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I’d really like Bo to come play or get a sub.

Barring the unforeseen, Bunny, Koala, and worcej are clear Town, which is lovely.

I disagree! On 2 counts.

First, while I am indeed Town, I think this is clearly unverifiable for anyone who is not me. And I think for you to say I am "clear Town" after last night and yesterday is, frankly Suspicious.

Second, my new Mafia suspects list is Bunny, worcej, and Balki (in that updated order)

Balki both for this suspicious post and the N1 group action fake-out.

We have exactly 3 PRs. Right now only 3 people have claimed PRs. I assume Bo is not a PR or else this game is just dumb. So provided Bo is not a PR, our three PR claims are all Town. The entire mafia team claimed VT and are in the pool of VT claimers.

This is the reason we all claimed — to shrink the pool of potential scum.

[worcej]

Balki and Bunny have explained it pretty well, but it’s like the 99% logic thing yavu said.

The only potential information that would cause us to be not town clear would be a no PR claim. Then we get to have fun finger pointing at each other.

[KoalaAttack]

OK

No folks, I saw them – I just seriously don't understand what is the deal with this claiming business being taken at face value with at least 3 liars in the group by definition. Is there some weird Mafia ethics, or some common mechanic that I'm just flat out missing here?

Please explain.

The logic here is scum are going to claim VT to be in the highest pool of town. Being in a pool of 6 is better than the PR pool.

Let’s say one scum claims PR, then there is a 25% chance that scum gets caught and what happens is the PR group moves into claiming roles at this point and explaining actions. Of importance is that the PR group is the group that scum are going to want to kill in, so if one claims in there it limits their kill options.

But 2 people claimed PRs before the mass claim – so this logic wouldn't apply to them if they are Mafia, no? They are already "locked in" unless they want to suspiciously flip now, right?

[BunnyGo]

I don't understand. It's only bizarre in the extreme if you believe everyone's claims, no? But aren't at least 3 claims lies, like, by definition?

I mean, if you just believe the claims, I seriously don't get how this game works. Say I am Mafia next time – why wouldn't I just hardclaim Doctor ASAP? I think I'm missing something here.

They could have, and then things would be different and we'd have a reason to consider which doctor claimant was telling the truth (when things are different, they aren't the same)...but no PR would claim VT. And everyone but bo has claimed at this point.

Hmm... You only get 2 Doctor claims if there is one. What is the probability % of a specific PR role being in this game? 6 possible PR roles, only 3 get used. 50% once the dust settles, no?

Don't worry about what didn't happen. For now, focus on what DID happen:

3 people claimed PR
everyone else claimed VT (please go with me for now that bo will claim VT when he comes back to make this simpler).

Please work out that in that case, NONE of the people claiming they are VTs would ACTUALLY be PRs.

Then...the 3 PRs in the game must be the three people who said they were PRs.

The 3 scum in the game must have decided that they wanted to lie in this way (don't worry about why for now; we cover that later)

[worcej]

Bo* PR claim - I hate how the iOS now fixes words later than it used to…

[KoalaAttack]

I’d really like Bo to come play or get a sub.

Barring the unforeseen, Bunny, Koala, and worcej are clear Town, which is lovely.

I disagree! On 2 counts.

First, while I am indeed Town, I think this is clearly unverifiable for anyone who is not me. And I think for you to say I am "clear Town" after last night and yesterday is, frankly Suspicious.

Second, my new Mafia suspects list is Bunny, worcej, and Balki (in that updated order)

Balki both for this suspicious post and the N1 group action fake-out.

We have exactly 3 PRs. Right now only 3 people have claimed PRs. I assume Bo is not a PR or else this game is just dumb. So provided Bo is not a PR, our three PR claims are all Town. The entire mafia team claimed VT and are in the pool of VT claimers.

This is the reason we all claimed — to shrink the pool of potential scum.

OK, I see the reasoning. Thank you.

[worcej]

No folks, I saw them – I just seriously don't understand what is the deal with this claiming business being taken at face value with at least 3 liars in the group by definition. Is there some weird Mafia ethics, or some common mechanic that I'm just flat out missing here?

Please explain.

The logic here is scum are going to claim VT to be in the highest pool of town. Being in a pool of 6 is better than the PR pool.

Let’s say one scum claims PR, then there is a 25% chance that scum gets caught and what happens is the PR group moves into claiming roles at this point and explaining actions. Of importance is that the PR group is the group that scum are going to want to kill in, so if one claims in there it limits their kill options.

But 2 people claimed PRs before the mass claim – so this logic wouldn't apply to them if they are Mafia, no? They are already "locked in" unless they want to suspiciously flip now, right?

I never trusted Balki’s or Chaqa’s claim if that helps in any way.

[BunnyGo]

No folks, I saw them – I just seriously don't understand what is the deal with this claiming business being taken at face value with at least 3 liars in the group by definition. Is there some weird Mafia ethics, or some common mechanic that I'm just flat out missing here?

Please explain.

The logic here is scum are going to claim VT to be in the highest pool of town. Being in a pool of 6 is better than the PR pool.

Let’s say one scum claims PR, then there is a 25% chance that scum gets caught and what happens is the PR group moves into claiming roles at this point and explaining actions. Of importance is that the PR group is the group that scum are going to want to kill in, so if one claims in there it limits their kill options.

But 2 people claimed PRs before the mass claim – so this logic wouldn't apply to them if they are Mafia, no? They are already "locked in" unless they want to suspiciously flip now, right?

This is "advanced" tactics. Balki and Chaqa were lying. There are reasons they'd have done this as scum. There are also reasons they'd have done this as town.

We can cover this later. Let's focus for now on the only three people currently claiming they're PRs.

[worcej]

Throwing this out there now: I wasn’t RB’ed, so my gut is the scum roles are the Ninja, strongarm, and fake doctor role

[BunnyGo]

I agree: Balki and Chaqa are mildly suspicious for knowingly lying about being PRs earlier.

But let's consider some townie AND/OR scummy reasons to have done it (in no particular order...feel free to add your own!):

1) Balki had cleared that the CWV would never claim, so he wasn't worried about a counter claim. He might have been trying to get scum to waste their Strongman power. TOWNIE!

2) Balki may have wanted to start a discussion (despite saying otherwise) to get intel. TOWNIE!

3) Balki may have wanted to avoid any tracker coming to watch him do the NK. SCUMMIE!

4) Chaqa may have wanted to scare the scum team from killing worcej. They couldn't RoleBlock both at the same time. TOWNIE!

5) Chaqa may have been trying to draw the kill to save a PR. TOWNIE!

6) Chaqa may have been trying to bait a counter claim from the watcher. SCUMMIE!

[BunnyGo]

Throwing this out there now: I wasn’t RB’ed, so my gut is the scum roles are the Ninja, strongarm, and fake doctor role

Why strongarm instead of Toughguy?

Why not bus?

[KoalaAttack]

So to summarize my understanding – I see the current reasoning, and the implied 2 assumptions supporting it are:

(1) no PR in their right mind would ever claim VT in the mass-claim scenario
(2) Bo will claim VT

Correct?

[BunnyGo]

Correction to my reason (1) Strongman should be Toughguy.

[BunnyGo]

So to summarize my understanding – I see the current reasoning, and the implied 2 assumptions supporting it are:

(1) no PR in their right mind would ever claim VT in the mass-claim scenario
(2) Bo will claim VT

Correct?

Correct!

[worcej]

Throwing this out there now: I wasn’t RB’ed, so my gut is the scum roles are the Ninja, strongarm, and fake doctor role

Why strongarm instead of Toughguy?

Why not bus?

I would think some intel would come in to show this. Then again, Jamie hasn’t been sending me action messages to indicate if I was saving a different target and he’s known to be kinda weird about not sending action confirmations