Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:29 pm
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Because I just watched you convince everyone to kill a townie who prior to your efforts had been in your paraphrased words "pretty broadly town read".wolfu wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:18 pmwhy do you need reinforcement from someone else
i'm right here and you can talk to me
if you are town, try to actually find me as town rather than being a tunneler. i don't actually think it's that hard at all
or are you just going to keep sticking to your theory because you want to be right and you're scared of looking foolish if you let me go
I quoted it your point about D1 VCA clearing wolfu is the best thing I've seen so far. Maybe I'm putting too much stock into VCA.
Sorry. You're really just talking about me. I'll leave and be back tonight or tomorrow morning irl.bo_sox48 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:28 pmI specifically said I wasn’t going to vote until late to avoid hammering the day, and yet I get the opportunity to hammer again because someone wants to put it in my hands anyway. Obviously I’m trying to discourage hammering, but no one else seems to have an issue with it. It’s just amusing.
The angst in this thread is far too much for any of us to be effective and we all need to use the night to stop being at each other’s throats and come ready to go with something useful when the night ends.
I don't think I'll post during the night unless I have a blinding revelation.bo_sox48 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:28 pmI specifically said I wasn’t going to vote until late to avoid hammering the day, and yet I get the opportunity to hammer again because someone wants to put it in my hands anyway. Obviously I’m trying to discourage hammering, but no one else seems to have an issue with it. It’s just amusing.
The angst in this thread is far too much for any of us to be effective and we all need to use the night to stop being at each other’s throats and come ready to go with something useful when the night ends.
i mean to be clear i do not think it is your fault we were wrong, that is on me and i am not blaming youpyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:34 pmBecause I just watched you convince everyone to kill a townie who prior to your efforts had been in your paraphrased words "pretty broadly town read".
I want to hear from everyone besides you before you get another turn. I spent all day yesterday talking with you, or maybe just at you, and afaik it got sabi killed.
Just give me space and talk to me later/tomorrow irl. I'm not hammering night.
Damn good guesses.pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:32 amRoles that I 100% would not pick:
- Cleric (if you survive a DK, you just die the next day, right? )
- Paladin (M75 showed how powerful solving is, why give town something to solve?)
- Warlock (this took me a while to figure but like there's no cop so why have a GF?)
the alternating night crooked cops also seem bad but maybe I'm missing something?
Roles that I 100% would pick:
- Rogue (Day Vig)
Positive opinion:
- Barbarian
- Bard
- Ranger (Tracker)
Neutral opinion:
- Druid (Universal Backup), never heard of this before, the mafiascum wiki only really talks about it as a town power so no idea how to judge it
- Fighter (Strongman), but moves to positive if Chaqa/GM says that it beats the protection item thingy
Negative opinion:
- Monk (Jailor), maybe I don't understand jailing, it's roleblock + untargetable, right? just doesn't seem that relevant to this setup? if scum wanted a roleblock power, just pick Bard because Bard can be used every night not just twice ever?
if we throw away all the context and just force me to give an answer:
pyxxy: Rogue/Bard/Barbarian/Ranger
That’s why!pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:54 amOh wait I messed this up then.
I'm biased now because now I've seen what everyone else thinks. Clearly I'm missing something about the backup.
pyxxy's "what I would have picked as mafia" before reading, a guesstimate, also you all see to hate using the role names so I'll stop to I guess :
day vig, roleblock, vengeful(?) (the Barbarian), tracker
pyxxy's "what I think mafia picked, trying to not be biased even though I've read a bunch of people's answers now":
day vig, roleblock, seems like everyone loves the backup so universal backup, and tracker
Pyxxy is leading the charge to try and direct the remaining PR traffic we have. At this point, our doctor was already dead and our sorcerer was already outed - which pyxxy knew, though the rest of us didn’t - so there’s some risk and some reward to convincing the inventor to give away arguably his most powerful item early. The risk, obviously, is that it falls in the wrong hands. The reward is that it falls into the right hands, from the mafia’s point of view. And it’s a risk worth taking because, after all, any inventor worth their salt is going to give out the scan first.pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:15 pmWrote all this in a tab before N1 so as not to distract from more pertinent D1 conversations. Maybe I shouldn't be posting it right away but whatever. I don't mind if people ignore this for now, I'll just bump the topic later in the night.Chaqa wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:14 pm1. Yes, my bad there.pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:32 amSaw that people started posting their supposed role picks so I stopped reading the thread to go read the setup
Some questions that came up during my reading:
##CALL GM
1) Is the google doc supposed to say "during either the day phase or the night phase", italics+underline are my theorized addition, for the Inventor's magic missile wand?
aka is it a day vig item power or nah?
2) Does the Periapt protect against even a strongman kill?
3) "Detect Magic" says vanilla vs non-vanilla. Are all scum roles considered non-vanilla? Even Druid pre-transformation?
ty in advance mr chaqa gm sir
2. No, it does not.
3. All scum roles are considered “not vanilla” except the Warlock
---
Chaqa's answer for #3 makes me want to have a discussion about the Inventor handing out the scan before the gun.
Gun has a [number to be put here after D1+N1+D2 flips] / 14 (unless a town PR save or mafia shenanigans happen) of shooting scum. We can't know this number yet but it's probably between 20-40%, I think?
But if Inventor gives the scan out right away, it's the same chance of giving it to scum, which I think is less bad for the same odds of wrongly shooting a townie?
And if we get lucky and give it to town, then they can scan N2 and we potentially get info D3 which is the fastest possible.
The risk is scanning doc/joat/commuter -> townie scans doc/joat/commuter -> townie outs doc/joat/commuter. And I writing this before the D1 flip so we have to consider that flip and the resulting odds.
But if it's D3, that's also a lot of time. And maybe the other roles can protected the outed one? Anyway I think there's a discussion to be had here.
---
I wrote the above before darg claimed crumbing, writing this at the beginning of N1 before darg explains it.
Also wrote this before we fucking killed the doc lmao. But this means we should almost certainly be giving out the scan tonight. Odds of non-vanilla => scum are even better now.
Surprise! There’s actually a fourth character, the commuter! They did not counter, and that’s their only role in this story. I won’t reveal who they are, but it really isn’t hard to figure out at this point.
In this scenario, Pyxxy’s alternative reality is a world where the entire scumteam thinks only about what they do or do not have and where everything is a big conspiracy. This is what got my mind racing. “They knew I had something” - how? Thinking that Rumi intentionally got modkilled in order to die before the tracker… who may or may not exist to the rest of us… and doing so in tandem with the vengeful outing. That’s 2 scum for 2 town. No town PRs guaranteed. What is this logic?pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:59 amI'm caught up from where I got pissed off and went and watch youtube for the rest of the flight.
It's past 2:00am for me (later addition: when I started writing this) and I've been awake for almost 20 hours. So I'm not confident. But this game is already such a shit show that if this is a mistake then so be it. Also I half expected to be shot by now. But I think scum is still holding out hope that the real commuter cc's Demon.
Brain gave me the scan (scrying stone) N1 and I scanned Demon N2 and he's guilty as fuck.
(later addition: actually I had to double check my pm, and it doesn't say who I got it from, just describes the item. more on this near the bottom of this post)
There's no way Rumi+scum guesses that raw so I can't believe how fucking lucky they are to track+shoot Inventor N1.
It all makes so much fucking sense why Demon was fishing N2 for someone to claim getting a gun from brain. They knew I had something and wanted to see if I would flinch. Once they saw that N2 ended without me claiming the gun and also without shooting anyone N2, they correctly assumed that I had the scan so Rumi shot darg and then got modkilled to refresh the power. Which again, that's fucked up and a clear abuse of the rules. Like, I hope you're okay Rumi, but I don't know what to believe.
Demon has been openly scumming or whatever the right word is. He's fucking scum. He's been pushing the scum agenda this whole time. Bluster, vitriol, clogging the thread, etc. I'm convinced he's vengeful. It's the obvious explanation for his entire game.
I don't have the brain power rn to make sense of Rumi's post in its entirety. Eg I don't know why Rumi reveals that scum picked tracker. Granted they don't know for sure if I scanned last night, nor if I scanned a town or scum person, nor if/when I would reveal the result.
My gut tells me that it was a play at the subconscious, to get us to think that this was all planned because Demon was the tracker and was going to die first and scum of course doesn't want their backup to become a tracker especially when 3 out of 4 town PRs will be dead (after Rumi shots darg) meaning the role would be pretty useless and so wow it would be so safe and easy to vote Demon. off today without giving it critical thought. This also factors into why I'm convinced that Demon is vengeful. Demon's and Rumi's behavior just makes way more sense if this is all true.
I think this basically town clears bozo. I got the scan, not Demon, so that's all bullshit.
(this is my oh shit realization section, it's 2:41am and I just thought about this)
Okay I went back through bozo's scenario list and here's the thing. Bozo I'll need you to double check this because god I'm so fucking tired. I think it's mechanically possible that I was given the fake scan item. I don't think I can rule it out. The pm doesn't say who I got it from and the rules explain that the fake item will be named exactly the same, except it will always return guilty. On top of this I spent a good bit of N1 arguing that scan should be handed out first, so scum would know that I would be eager and receptive getting it N1.
And I'm taking Rumi at her word when we know that she lied about her role. Why am I doing that? There's not actually any proof that there is a tracker. I'm the one reading into her lies. And then she sets up Demon for the miskill? And it's just bad luck that I scanned Demon? I guess I gave some hints that I was interested in a Damo and Demon scum pair, and I had moved past wanting to deal with bo. Maybe scum just wanted me to report on my scan asap no matter what. Either it nets a miskill or I get miskilled or both.
I think I need to just stop this is all getting to be and it's almost 3am and I gotta work tomorrow. My last thought I was going to say before I had the fake scan realization is that I would love to call Neon's bluff. It just feels like a bluff to me. Feels wrong. I don't trust it. The frustration feels real but the reasoning for it falls flat. That's all for now. I don't know when I'll be back.
This post contains a lot of knowledge of Bona’s actions without ever uttering their name prior to this post. It includes actions Bona took during EOD1, when pyxxy was online and obviously paying attention. But pyxxy voted worcej instead. Here is pyxxy’s rationale for voting worcej:pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:47 pmSucks that you had to clarify but ty for clarifying.dargorygel wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:34 pmAs I said earlier, the other wagons weren’t satisfactory to me, and brain seems scum. Lots of OMGUS, I admit. But a bit more, I already wrote about that.
As the day went on, and the EoD approached, and I was busy cooking for a crowd, I decided I would crumb… big and obvious, to me. I particularly thought brain, fellow Comic Guy, would notice the reference to Stephen Strange, Sorceror Supreme (and not a doctor. I would have gone Doc Holiday there… although wasn’t he a dentist?)
I don't like how Bona tried to get you to claim a specific role before EOD, although I agree with the sentiment at the time that you were somewhat vaguely claiming a crumb.
That said, rdr makes a good point where maybe Bona was behind / trying to stay current, see: all the posts he made after night started.
I'm neutral with a light scumlean on Bona.
Not as much conviction as I’d like to see for someone who had a scumread of their own that should supersede “sheeping other people here.” But Bona is a teammate and was saved, as we all know, and all three scum teammates were participating in the effort to keep their tracker alive.
Day 3 goes by, and RHK is revealed and dies. Moving into day 4, pyxxy is still on the damo-RHK teammate train:pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 5:57 pmI'm biasing myself again but I really dislike how this makes damo and demon look.pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 5:50 pmEvery wagon on D2 that reached 3 votes at some point, chronologically:
Tom: HR, Neon, wolfu
bozo: me (pyxxy), darg, and rdr
No-Vote: bozo, rumi, sabi
Tom wagon part 2: Neon rejoins, HR still there, this time wolfu flakes for the...
bozo wagon part 2: darg, rdr, wolfu
wolfu wagon: Bona, demon, ike
Tom wagon part 3 (the one that kills him): bozo returns from No-Vote
Idk what I'm looking for here but bozo did inspire me re: meaningless votes or people that seem to have avoided ending on town (confirmed after death).
That list might be:
- bo, for not voting (after seeing that rumi "got away with it", I might add)
- damo, voting for rdr
- demon, voting for ike
- me (pyxxy), voting for bo
HR is politely telling me to lay off bo and I'm me pyxxy the townie so that leaves...those two.
Sure would be awkward if one of the ways town makes a come back in this game is the inverse of this e.g. finding out you and demon are a scum pairing.damo666 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:17 pmOne of my methods is to identify pairing that cannot BOTH be mafia. Works wellwolfu wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:13 ami should also say: people should probably ease up on the hero solve try to guess the whole team by finding associations stuff
because, in general, you are incredibly likely to be wrong on those things
it is much harder by numbers to guess a pairing correctly than to catch a single scum
there will be dozens of incidental interactions between two players that are going to look like they could be a team but they will both be town
for now i would like to simply focus on finding a single scum, because we haven't gotten one yet
that's not to say you can't have multiple scumreads but i think they should be based on more than how two people interacted toward one another
Around 24 hours into the day, mentions of damo dry up and mentions of Bona become far more frequent. Both wagons are tied at 2-2.pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:44 pmThe problem continues to be, flipping bo does nothing for finding the other scum. We have to get it right today. So this post is me trying to let go of my frustration with bo's play and put him as a future DK. If damo flips scum, as I expect him to, I would vote bo next, because I could see bo being set up as the long term lurker for scum team during N0.
This post illustrates the changing tone. Nothing has happened to generate a Bona scumread over damo, which pyxxy was overtly certain about when RHK died. Nevertheless, incoming is pyxxy’s self-proclaimed wall post, where they discuss Bona’s play but generally do not criticize him and avoids explicitly scumreading him:pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:08 pmActually maybe this is just a good question for everyone to answer.
If Bona flips town, your next vote(s) would be:
If Bona flips scum, your next vote(s) would be:
For me, if Bona is town, then I would feel like I've been played by damo, and would vote damo.
If Bona is scum, then I would feel like I've been played by Bona, and would kick his corpse >:( but I wouldn't have a great next vote. I would want to see the NK first (if I'm not it).
Maybe I would have to reconsider Sabi at that point because of them insta-voting damo at the SOD. Respect to Bona for at least holding his vote a little, although maybe it's just OMGUS between the two of them.
Little happens for 20 or so hours, and then:pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:47 pm1) No, not useful to find a scumpair, even swapping rdr for Ike in this hypothetical. The lurker has lurked well since basically nobody seems to have a good lurker read from what I can tell rn?pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:00 amI gotta decide on dinner and then cook it so I'll be gone for a while.
Things that are on my mind:
1) Is trying to find a scumpair really that useful if one of bo/Ike has been lurking?
2) gonna re-read Bona and damo
3) maybe just revisit D1 through N2 e.g. who besides bozo was pushing the Tom wagon? why did damo end on rdr and does it make sense?
4) Bona promised us VCA on damo, @Bona I would love if I could get a deadline for that so that I know you won't just drag out an empty promise
5) Ike didn't post D3 or N3 (keep in mind D3 was ~24 hours because of the demon hammer), no idea what he thinks about any of this
6) Need to compare Neon's and Bozo's scumreads now that we know they're both town but they didn't know each other was town
7) I feel like I'm softening on wolfu but maybe it's because they're the only person who seems to respond to my ideas aka not for a good reason
8) no shot this is scum rdr playing his greatest game ever right?
(this quote is edited for convenience)
2) Bona D1:
- fights with town!Neon about her town and scum games being indistinguishable
- says bozo is being bozo
- doesn't believe darg's PR claim and votes him anyway
Bona N1:
- keeps fighting with town!Neon
- also tells Sabi that they're defending people again- (ed. note: if Bona is scum, he described Demon and Rumi as "did nothing". He gave the same description to me and rdr.)Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:23 am(edited down to only people still alive & dead scum)
BesharamSabi - white knighting their new people again. seriously detracts from any attempt to read wolfu. too tired atm to say something smart but i feel like the repeated attempts to dismiss people questioning wolfu just looks bad but because it's sabi, who knows about alignment.
bo_sox48 - i really liked his angle on wolfu. similar to pyxxy in that he came in late but put in a ton more effort and a ton more thought in a really nice way.
damo666 - liked the survey. not much else. rhk made a good post about him but he dismissed it by saying 'doesn't follow' and then only posting twice more in the thread.
DemonRHK - didn't really do a lot? rereading his d1, not sure what he thought. voted me when i said that most of the game was on vanity wagons - easy jump? nearly ended there but switched off onto worcej.
pyxxy - came in late, didn't really have opinions. see bo_sox
rdrivera2005 - did nothing really interesting except voting me (had a feeling)
Rumi Tobari - feels similar. i have no idea how they'd play scum so it's hard for me to make a distinction - admittedly no towny pureness like last game, but it's very hard to do that on game 2, so a topic of thought.
wolfu - can barely remember anything he posted aside from making a readslist, saying he had reasons, and then not posting them. apparently he had sixty posts???
CrimsonFox/Ike - ike has felt fine but it's easy to do that as any alignment when you have the benefit of being detached from any d1 posting. no idea. see HR
- pushes scum!wolfu as an idea (ed. note: I feel like he's kept doing this?)
Bona D2:
- the top poster O.o
- weak pushback on the weird Demon damo interaction from D2, Bona never really follows up on this- casts doubt on brain's scum list (ed. note: brain had N1 scumreads on town!bozo, town!Tom, and bo)
- makes a case on wolfu halfway through the day, even though he's been voting wolfu from SOD
- talks a lot with Rumi, Neon, Sabi, damo, wolfu, and a bit with me, darg, and Tom
(ed. note: SOMEONE HELP ME HERE. This is weird. Bona quotes Demon once on D1 and then never quotes him again until D3. I'm pretty sure I'm right about this, searched through the daily ISOs. Someone tell me if this is TAI NAI or SAI for scum to ignore scum.)
Bona N2 is mostly this, bo maybe you were thinking about N3?Re-reading Bona took all my lunch so damo happens later.Bonatogether wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:24 pmlooking back at d2
(supposed VCA by Bona)
tl;dr:
sabi looks bad
demon looks bad
the group of six (HR, Neon, wolfu, darg, the pyx, rdr) almost certainly has scum just cruising on a path to kill town
bozo looks somewhat better
im the best
3) I'll do 3 when I re-read damo.
4) Bona responded, 5) I like Ike!
6)Neon wasn't killed for her scumreads (although she did die for them). Bozo could have been.bozotheclown wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:52 pmWe have a mis-kill left, so we can DK Bonatogether, damo, and wolfu, but my preference is to start with Bonatogether.
7) ty wolfu for keeping me honest, and keeping yourself honest re: Bona seeming genuine
8) The odds of god mode scum!rdr have increased since I last posted
Another half hour goes by and pyxxy votes Bona, which makes it 3-2, Bona over damo.
darg -00:01,
Fairly convenient excluding yourself from the poe.
You really considered that the guy who hadn't considered the mechanics around RHK's commuter claim could be the commuter?