M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

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wolfu
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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3101 Post by wolfu » Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:59 pm

so pyx, i guess i have to ask now: why did you choose to scan demon out of anyone?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3102 Post by wolfu » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:01 pm

also, i see you mentioned being inexperienced - roughly ho many games of mafia have you played?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3103 Post by bo_sox48 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:09 pm

wolfu wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:57 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:51 pm
wolfu wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:27 pm
i think actually burning the shot was kind of foolish since we can vote for no kill now
How would that be advantageous?
mafia kill someone and we have fewer suspects remaining
We really ought to be able to narrow the pool down ourselves.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3104 Post by damo666 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:15 pm

wolfu wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:57 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:51 pm
wolfu wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:27 pm
i think actually burning the shot was kind of foolish since we can vote for no kill now
How would that be advantageous?
mafia kill someone and we have fewer suspects remaining
They either hold the kill or kill me. Any wiser?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3105 Post by damo666 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:31 pm

I'm fairly certain for whom I'm gonna vote but I'll hold off for a while.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3106 Post by damo666 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:33 pm

bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:09 pm
wolfu wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:57 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:51 pm


How would that be advantageous?
mafia kill someone and we have fewer suspects remaining
We really ought to be able to narrow the pool down ourselves.
We need to get it bang on rather than 'narrow it down' but semantics apart I agree.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3107 Post by wolfu » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:34 pm

ok suit yourselves

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3108 Post by wolfu » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:38 pm

need to actually digest those walls now that i have time to read

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3109 Post by bo_sox48 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:44 pm

damo666 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:33 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:09 pm
wolfu wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:57 pm


mafia kill someone and we have fewer suspects remaining
We really ought to be able to narrow the pool down ourselves.
We need to get it bang on rather than 'narrow it down' but semantics apart I agree.
I feel like I have 🤷‍♀️

Putting the case on pyxxy aside, which you may or may not be buying into, that reread ruled you out - your reaction to RHK’s claim was both not commuter and not a teammate as a teammate knows that his claim is fake and that the goal is for his fake claim to be revealed (case against pyxxy aside) and the commuter wouldn’t just let him kill someone. Wolfu was far more involved than someone whose intention it was to hide early on - the commuter would not put themselves on an island where they had to use their role early and would presumably avoid major confrontation. On the same note, wolfu’s willingness to be confrontational, especially the last few days, has me firmly believing that he is town, and his vote history supports that hypothesis. That leaves, from your perspective, pyxxy and myself, and from my perspective it leaves pyxxy, which I only use to instill further confidence in my case. Regardless, the only one of that POE that has a cogent case made against them is pyxxy, so if you don’t buy that, the only way you can contribute to getting it “bang on” would be to make a case against me and actually question me.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3110 Post by damo666 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:11 am

bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:44 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:33 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:09 pm


We really ought to be able to narrow the pool down ourselves.
We need to get it bang on rather than 'narrow it down' but semantics apart I agree.
I feel like I have 🤷‍♀️

Putting the case on pyxxy aside, which you may or may not be buying into, that reread ruled you out - your reaction to RHK’s claim was both not commuter and not a teammate as a teammate knows that his claim is fake and that the goal is for his fake claim to be revealed (case against pyxxy aside) and the commuter wouldn’t just let him kill someone. Wolfu was far more involved than someone whose intention it was to hide early on - the commuter would not put themselves on an island where they had to use their role early and would presumably avoid major confrontation. On the same note, wolfu’s willingness to be confrontational, especially the last few days, has me firmly believing that he is town, and his vote history supports that hypothesis. That leaves, from your perspective, pyxxy and myself, and from my perspective it leaves pyxxy, which I only use to instill further confidence in my case. Regardless, the only one of that POE that has a cogent case made against them is pyxxy, so if you don’t buy that, the only way you can contribute to getting it “bang on” would be to make a case against me and actually question me.
1.10 am for me so it will have to wait. Goodnight.
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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3111 Post by wolfu » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:15 am

i have read the case on pyxxy. i'd like to see if he has a response to it.


i'm probably going to bedoing a meta dive on pyx tonight but i'm not going to be posting conclusions or anything

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3112 Post by damo666 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:28 am

The fact that pyxxy a non commuter is still alive is damning. The only reason I can think for no NK attempt on a town pyxxy would be to set them up as the final modkill but that (from the scum pov) would have probably meant a fake commuter claim putting them in an effective gladiator situation which they have virtually no chance of winning so it basically makes no sense.

Also pyxxy's D1 vote now looks very much like a Bona save.

##vote pyxxy

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3113 Post by wolfu » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:30 am

this is me posting to confirm that i am not mafia as if i were i would have voted and ended the game

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3114 Post by wolfu » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:32 am

(unless i've somehow misread the votes again, but lol)

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3115 Post by bo_sox48 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:34 am

yay I didn’t fuck up

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3116 Post by wolfu » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:43 am

don't worry i'm a master at fucking things up


i want to hear from pyx first before making any decision though
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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3117 Post by pyxxy » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:15 am

bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:43 pm
pyxxy wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:33 pm
Your post is too big to really manage but I just wanted to pull this one part
This scenario ends with three scumteam members dead - none of the three ever bussed pyxxy - and one remaining player, orchestrating miskills with clever nightkills and driving discussion while not actively leading it, survives. This remaining player should be an obvious nightkill as, again, nobody will be brave enough to kill pyxxy over any other reasonable option in the remotely near future. But alas this player is the last remaining member of the mafia team and a nightkill is not in their future. Which explains why pyxxy, who we have all completely ignored as a suspect for several days now, is still alive.
There's no other reason, perhaps? Might want to ask damo about this. I think he and I are on the same page, similarly defense minded.

I don't want to distract from it though. I've got a doc appt in an hour so I'll be back in a few.
If defending against my flimsy hypothetical that I know everyone thinks even though it's bad to think about with another flimsy hypothetical is the best you can do against that case then I'm not sure I see any reason to consider changing my mind
I'm back :) and I caught up before starting to write this. Celaph, huh. Guess that's why Ike wasn't modkilled. I thought damo was the commuter :neutral: more on this later

I'm not sure if I should expect to get to write more than 1 post? I would like to have some conversation, as I don't want us to lose by miskilling me. But I'm not an admin so I can't just get around word limits :) so this will be one big post and then back to my usual small responses.

First, as you can see from my EON wallpost, I've towncleared wolfu (and he did it himself by not voting me immediately) and I'm pretty confident that damo is town too. So I came into today expecting to vote either bo or celaph, with a preference for bo, as I had a similar opinion to damo on crimson/Ike/celaph, paraphrased "if scum wins for being true afk then as town I don't really care because it doesn't actually feel like a loss".

So I'm going to post a cleaned up "Post #3: VCA on bo" that I also worked on last night but which I hadn't formed into real thoughts. This "Post #3" is below the dashes.

After posting this, I'll start working on responding to bo's case but I didn't come into today expecting a case against me :neutral: so don't be shocked but I'm not prepared.

----------------

My best efforts as a still pretty new mafia player for a case against bo:

(ed note: I had this drafted as post #3 so some tenses and phrasing might be weird as it was before EON)
I feel like I had a lot of success working through VCA for the known scum team so I'm going to continue it for bo. We'll see how my VCA work is received by if it goes well then that will increase my confidence in this post.

D1 bo:

pyxxy -00:37
bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:26 pm
pyxxy wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:02 pm
pyxxy wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:59 pm


Because iirc pressuring rdr to post more got him NK'd N1 in M1021
https://mafia.peterlund.se/m1021/game_status.html

idr if it got talked about in the M1021 game thread but in the discord, the scum in that game said that they killed rdr because of his vanilla/PR tell and iirc there was some pressure on him to post more in that game? granted I could be misremembering all this
Also I'm in a bit of a "let the lurkers live a little" phase because it's been wrong in M75 and M1021, which sure is maybe a little more of the gambler's fallacy (trying to nail 1 scum lurking in 3 people is going to miss 2 out of 3 times).

But like I agreed with worcej earlier, I agree with the idea that scum are more likely to be more active because of the N0.
Sorry for missing these.

I disagree with pretty much everything you’ve said here but most of it is philosophical so I’ll just say you’re wrong and let it be.

As for not pressuring rdrivera and explicitly noting that you won’t pressure rdrivera because he couldn’t handle pressure in a prior game, that is some bullshit. If he’s too busy to play he just won’t reply - who cares?

##VOTE pyxxy
^explanation
bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:57 pm
I don’t like any of the new wagons, yay!
rdr -00:01 (1:59:04 pm PT)
bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:59 pm
##VOTE rdrivera
This vote comes closely after demon's vote for worcej at 1:58:58 pm PT
DemonRHK wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:58 pm
##Vote worcej

damo is on that wagon, ew
Too close, in case. This would be an argument for town!bo. Except for this:
wolfu wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:58 pm
##vote rdrivera
wolfu votes for rdr at 1:58:39 pm PT.

It's the last two minutes of so scum!bo is just looking for any wagon to hitch to that would save bona. Bona is only at 3 votes, wolfu just put rdr to 2, and bo makes it 3. WebDip has a strong history of flash wagons from what I've seen in my ~4 games now? So it's perfectly plausible to me that bo was trying to help flash wagon rdr.

I don't know what exactly he considered to be a "new wagon", but voting for rdr makes bo consistent. Which makes it a little confusing that bo switches back to worcej at the very end.
bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:59 pm
##vote worcej
that's at 1:59:48 pm PT

but don't worry, bo immediately clears up that he was just voting to avoid a tie
bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:12 pm
Yeah and he didn’t claim even though he posted at EOD so I broke the potential tie his way lmao
bo_sox48 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:13 pm
If darg is actually joat then we’re supremely fucked regardless so we might as well hammer him now
And I believe him. Or rather, similar to how bona crafted a town tell by voting for darg, bo has crafted a town tell here by voting for worcej 1) to legitimately avoid a tie situation, and 2) after worcej was almost certainly dead because 3) bo has just watched the rest of his scum team blatantly pile onto worcej to save bona and the best defense to this is to move onto worcej after it seemingly no longer matters, and to _also_ claim town cred for trying to avoid a tie.

Hmmm. This VCA is pretty tinfoil but it's not impossible.

If anyone wants a broader view of the EOD D1 vote movement:

Code: Select all

[darg claims JOAT]
00:06	Pri dar➙wor	3 Bon	3 dar	3 wor	2 boz
00:06	pyx	dar➙Unv	3 Bon	3 wor	2 dar	2 boz
00:05	wol	dar➙Unv	3 Bon	3 wor	2 boz	1 bra
00:04	Pri	wor➙boz	3 Bon	3 boz	2 wor	1 bra
00:03	wol	Unv➙wor	3 Bon	3 wor	3 boz	1 bra
00:03	pyx	Unv➙wor	4 wor	3 Bon	3 boz	1 bra
00:02	bra	dar➙rdr	4 wor	3 Bon	3 boz	1 bra
00:02	Pri	boz➙Bon	4 Bon	4 wor	2 boz	1 bra
00:02	wol	wor➙rdr	4 Bon	3 wor	2 rdr	2 boz
00:02	Dem	Bon➙wor	4 wor	3 Bon	2 rdr	2 boz
00:01	bo_	pyx➙rdr	4 wor	3 Bon	3 rdr	2 boz
00:01	Rum	Dem➙wor	5 wor	3 Bon	3 rdr	2 boz
00:01	Bon	dam➙dar	5 wor	3 Bon	3 rdr	2 boz
00:01	bo_	rdr➙wor	6 wor	3 Bon	2 rdr	2 boz
00:01	Rum	wor➙Unv	5 wor	3 Bon	2 rdr	2 boz

D2 bo:

He didn't vote and posted a hair after Chaqa posted for EOD. I read the latter as legitimate (I did it yesterday).

The tinfoil theory here is that after the D1 scum team bussing disaster, the scum team knew that they need a lurker and the only viable candidate is bo.

They plan for bo to lurk (he's very good at it). bo plans to show up at EOD to sneak a vote in and look the minimum amount of engaged but honestly misses the deadline as, in his later words paraphrased, "he's living life and doing cool shit" [ed note: and tbh I am jealous the car stuff sounds sick].

It's possible that bo checked on the thread + peterbot and saw that the leading wagons were both town and that exacerbated him being checked out and missing the deadline. Not a completely ridiculous theory, imo. Maybe I really am getting better at this VCA stuff.


D3 bo:

demon -01:13 (reminder D3 was hammered at around ~24h left)

Here's 3 out of the 7 bo posts from D3:
bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:04 am
I see no reason not to vote for bozo here, partly because I already halfheartedly scumread him but primarily because I can’t come up with an explanation for mafia outing themselves to take out one player when (prior to Rumi’s modkill) they were on the verge of an auto win. Now not so much - lucky us I guess - and in the present situation it still wouldn’t make any sense to swap 1-for-1.
bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:35 pm
If the counterclaim is between pyxxy and RHK then we should be voting between them. That's about all that needs to be said imo.
bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:36 pm
##VOTE RHK
bo says "I see no reason not to vote for bozo here"...but he doesn't.

The tinfoil hat theory here is that bo, knowing that demon's personality (which bo noted as weird and not like demon on D1, but gave demon a pass for! a pass that I myself did not get! thanks bo!) has been a game long ploy to get DK'd, and watching Rumi implode and get modkilled, sorry rambling;

The plan on D3 was probably "demon is starting to wear everyone's patience thin, let's try to squeeze the last bit of juice out of him and get bozo DK'd".

The Incident threw all that out the window. So while bo wanted to execute the plan and get bozo killed, he realizes that bozo is evolving into a strong town power and attracting more attention to bo's self by voting for bozo would be a bad idea.

bo can already see that bozo is going to try and manipulate the vengeful power as a pseudo-scan for town, and bona is absolutely at risk of being forced to be demon's sacrifice, which would make scum go from 4 members to 1 in a single day.

To that end, when bo comes back, he helps to hammer demon! Despite this being blatantly anti-town! And feigns ignorance about the situation + not caring about bozo at all, despite knowing that bozo is a townclear now thank to my scan counter claim.

This is by far the most suspicious day for bo's votes so far. He doesn't actually vote where he says he wants to, and then he hammers the day when town could have easily used the remaining 24 hours to talk Neon down from the ledge and put Bona up there instead.


D4 bo:
rdr -04:26

bo's vote for rdr happens when damo and bona are tied 2-2, and myself and wolfu are the other non-voters.

Idk what to make of this. It seems like bo is just continuing to opt out of actually voting for a main wagon. rdr was his D1 wagon so it's consistent (and I'm towncleared by this point so he can't vote for me again). Weakest day in my analysis so far.


D5 bo:
sabi -00:31 (hammers sabi)

let's wolfu make the case all day, let's wolfu convince the rest of town, tosses in the hammer when it doesn't really matter and again doesn't look bad for him

I guess this is why bo made the comment about getting handed another hammer. bo couldn't believe his luck. He was being given the best case scenario to avoid creating any voting record evidence or commitments that might make him look bad later.


Takeaways:

bo's voting behavior on D3 is the most suspicious out of all the days. He is clearly paying attention to the day and commenting on the action, but after Rumi's modkill, he knows that the scum plan is falling apart and he needs to salvage what he can.

bo also probably pushed demon to make these claims and get himself killed sooner rather than later because bo knew that Rumi was having a hard time in scum chat? Like, bo was pretty offended when someone (idr who) said that it seemed like bo didn't care about Rumi.

Okay I went and found it:
bo_sox48 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:41 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:39 pm
I think bo_sox needs to be included in our last 3 DKs. His recent posts make no sense and for him to be town he would have to have no awareness of the current game state. He also seemed bothered that Rumi Tobari made it harder for the mafia to win.


I’m pretty sure I haven’t commented on the Rumi thing but if you’re reading my mind yeah someone quitting the game and the entire website because their mental health is in shambles bothers me.


This is just about the most compassion that bo can show in this game, right? XD
Don't want to look like you're too close with your scummate who just had a mental breakdown in the thread. Especially if you're pissed at demon for choosing to play this way from the beginning.

Then he helps to hammer Demon despite bozo clearly saying we should wait and try to use demon to our advantage, since demon is vengeful and bo knows it.

bo's D1 voting behavior is minorly suspicious, as who would expect scum to want to end up on the town miskill, especially after he just watched two scummates blatantly save bona. Switching off rdr to avoid a tie is a mechanically valid reason in case of a Paladin, which is very unlike bo, who hates mechanics ;)

I'm very tired and it's pretty late so I don't have the energy to rehash D2 and D4 and they were worse anyway.
[ed note: wrote this yesterday night, leaving it because those days are weaker, D2 was when bo missed voting and D4 was the rdr vanity wagon]

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3118 Post by pyxxy » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:17 am

ah dammit I messed up the bolding at the end

that's what I get for doing tags by hand ahead of time

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3119 Post by bo_sox48 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:53 am

How do you read damo’s reaction to RHK’s commuter claim and think damo is the commuter?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3120 Post by bo_sox48 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:56 am

The answer is you don’t, but you had to say something lol

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