MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[celaph]

I still have a lot of pages to read.

Bona is a good wagon. Eden and Snowy are bad wagons.

##vote Celaph

This doesn't make sense to me. Why would rdr say Bona is a good wagon then immediately vote for Celaph. I don't see any clear reasoning or logic to this.

That was my question too. I was assuming that rdr meant that Bona was a good wagon, but he thought that I was better and was therefore voting for me. As for why he thinks any of this, I have no idea though I assume he will be commenting more as things progress.

[ghug]

Vecna is in the potential pool.

Why do you scumread him?

He continues to fail to impress while other candidates like you and pyxxy are doing more. I don't mind the Sabi wagon and I imagine there's no way around the snowy pressure, but I'd like some more things to happen

He is failing to impress me also. That is fair comment.

Do you scumread Snowy/Byz? Don't you think Byz was super sketchy in the last half of yesterday in particular?

I don't think Byz was great yesterday, but I'm not convinced that was necessarily a scum issue as opposed to a skill issue, and the collective EoD1 apathy has me leaning town on the slot.

[BesharamSabi]

Lol

[BesharamSabi]

##VOTE snowy ##end

[President Eden]

oh yea I guess if I’m not gonna be here, my vote should be somewhere good just in case

##VOTE snowy801
##UNEND

[BesharamSabi]

Wow sabi has changed and has played 20+ games since my last webdip one

[ghug]

Why not?

He hadn't done a single thing I can remember and people seems to just ignore he is playing, which I find odd.

I think he's been pretty consistently insightful and far more involved than, say, you.

What points of insight do you recall from celaph?

Most of just posts?

[Jamiet99uk]

FYI I’m going to be only intermittently checking the thread from now til ~8pm Central, where I will not be checking the thread at all for a few hours. So if you want to speedrun miskilling me just know I won’t be around to helplessly claim 100% vanilla

Eden Goon confirmed

(jk)

[ghug]

I think he's been pretty consistently insightful and far more involved than, say, you.

What points of insight do you recall from celaph?

Most of just posts?

his* posts

[pyxxy]

Wow sabi has changed and has played 20+ games since my last webdip one

What's this in reference to?

[BesharamSabi]

For example, Pyxxy had some good analysis here and even provided some thoughts about how believable he found the claims, but it's not clear to me is his read of Sabi changes in any way because of his analysis nor do I ever really think he's spelled out a read there.

Sabi is town vs. Sabi is scum
[...]

On the positive side, he has done a good job at answering questions before so: @pyxxy, what are your reads on Sabi/Snowy?

> I would characterize his style as making otherwise good posts without good conclusions.

This is like, A+ feedback.

My opinion of Sabi dives towards scummy whenever they're on the thread for more than an hour, and then it recovers over time. Given they're on a break rn, they're sitting in my "open to voting for today but need to see them back in the thread first" list.

Things Sabi has done so far + my opinion:
- calling the thread dead = normal
- talking to no one about town apathy = normal
- flipflopping and thinking out loud in the thread? = normal

Eden looks terrible under pressure and the whole weird ate at the end.

(some things omitted -pyxxy)
I just don't see w!eden turning on Bona in any world. Eden isn't that bad at mafia.

Tl;dr I don't see eden being scum

woops I just wandered off for 15 minutes re-reading scum!Sabi in M1021
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... N1-&g=1021

I don't get the feeling that this is the same Sabi as M1021 scum!Sabi. There's a lot less trying to direct the conversation and push wagons. Much more light commentary. I would love to see them make a ranked list from town to scum like what Eden did.

This difference in behavior could be because M1021 had a mafia daychat. When there was a lot more coordination and direction for Sabi to go off of.

And note that their strongest topic from N1 onwards was revealing their nametag
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... t=N1-&g=75

And it comes ~20 minutes after EOD. Not right after, not with the RIP damo post, despite being online at EOD and posting this

Afk eod suck ass

which I think is referring to damo being afk, not 100% sure.

The Deathbomb discussion took up a lot of time and thought. It's 100% on brand for Sabi to peek + randomly tell us about it + not think through the town consequences for doing so. I could see scum!Sabi knowing that this looks 100% on brand and doing it since it's anti-town.

Especially if theoretically all the scum peeked right away on N1 and then decided for Sabi to claim Deathbomb. True or not, it was and still is anti-town behavior and it's a key part of why I'm suspicious of them.

I have been putting my reads out there. I'm too lazy for a list.

I thoughts the pros of revealing my peek was more important than the cons. If I didn't reveal then trying to track the deathbomb nametag would be hard.

Idk whatever. I am bored of this agenda.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am confident that 5 of the 6 people now on SnowByz are town.

[Bonatogether]

and since the winning wagon obviously had a higher chance of containing those powers, simply due to a higher number of players being on it, and they also ended up killing on there......

interesting

this is a numbskull point

no vote and double vote were on the same wagon. shooting the bigger wagon was something like 1/7 to hit the double vote, versus 1/5 to hit the double vote (of course, not literally - 50/50 guess as to which of those is actually real EXCEPT in the highly unlikely case where a mafia member peeked and saw they had the no vote)

[ghug]

I am confident that 5 of the 6 people now on SnowByz are town.

That wagon is basically my PoE pool...

[BesharamSabi]

I am confident that 5 of the 6 people now on SnowByz are town.

Who's the one

[Bonatogether]

I still have a lot of pages to read.

Bona is a good wagon. Eden and Snowy are bad wagons.

##vote Celaph

This doesn't make sense to me. Why would rdr say Bona is a good wagon then immediately vote for Celaph. I don't see any clear reasoning or logic to this.

I think Bona is a good wagon but I don't want a runaway wagon at start of the day and decide to explore other options.

runaway wagons early in the day always collapse so it's ok

[BesharamSabi]

I am confident that 5 of the 6 people now on SnowByz are town.

That wagon is basically my PoE pool...

Compare this pool with those who was voting Byz eod1

[Bonatogether]

Four of the following one people are mafia:

Bona
bo
snowy
celaph
Chaqa
ghug
MindGoblin
pyxxy
rdrivera
Vecna

Who is MindGoblin?

MIND GOBBLIN' DEEZ NUTS hur hur hur

lmfao

[ghug]

and since the winning wagon obviously had a higher chance of containing those powers, simply due to a higher number of players being on it, and they also ended up killing on there......

interesting

this is a numbskull point

no vote and double vote were on the same wagon. shooting the bigger wagon was something like 1/7 to hit the double vote, versus 1/5 to hit the double vote (of course, not literally - 50/50 guess as to which of those is actually real EXCEPT in the highly unlikely case where a mafia member peeked and saw they had the no vote)

You're both wrong? There's a higher chance that the bigger wagon has the tags; it's certainly not 50/50. There's a lower chance of hitting the tag you're looking for by shooting randomly within a wagon known to contain it. Those probabilities cancel out.

There's also Chaqa's claim to consider.

[pyxxy]

For example, Pyxxy had some good analysis here and even provided some thoughts about how believable he found the claims, but it's not clear to me is his read of Sabi changes in any way because of his analysis nor do I ever really think he's spelled out a read there.

Sabi is town vs. Sabi is scum
[...]

On the positive side, he has done a good job at answering questions before so: @pyxxy, what are your reads on Sabi/Snowy?

This is a lot harder for me, having not really played with Snowy at all? He got NK'd N1 in...idr, M73? So I'm 100% relying on other people's experiences.

What I've absorbed is that 1) snowy takes a while to snowball, but he become a estructive force for town, and 2) he's about as pleasant as jamie/eden/ghug

As I said previously, I ignored most of the Eden vs. Byz exchange and so that makes me hesitant to vote for the SnowByz slot. However, Snowy is currently matching sub-worcej's behavior in M73 one-for-one.

Granted it hasn't been for as long as worcej drew it out (which was good scum play, to be clear) but it's pretty boring to read "well I'm still not caught up haha" every 4 hours.

Snowy, put yourself on a regimen. You check the thread, you read from where you left off to present, and then you read 5 pages of old content. Easy peasy. Then we can track if you're giving a shit

Besides that though I don't have much to sus him on. I thought the whole "you're voting for me too early" thing was pretty funny so I voted for him XD

And look it's up to 6 votes for Snowy right now! Exactly as he predicted. It'll run out of steam and new wagons will emerge in...probably 8-10 hours? That's my bet anyway.

If I wasn't voting Snowy, I would either vote ghug or rumi because those are the only reads that have come to me over the course of the game.