MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

I have kept going back to Jamie's N3.

Using easy words I can understand, what makes ghug 100% mechanically clear? Is that just a way of saying that ghug wasn't involved in any tag swapping or anything like that?

But it doesn't mean that ghug is 100% town, right?

I already know what my alignment is. I'm surprised nobody else does, though.

I'm thinking you probably want to peek to confirm I don't have the inno tag if you haven't used it already. I wouldn't mind not being clear.

I have peeked.

You are INNOCENT.

And, the Name Tag that I took from you was not a tag that fucks with copscans. So you are either the Godfather, or you are clear.

DAY HAS ENDED EARLY


SNOWY801has DIED! They were ELLIOT NESS the GODFATHER! (VACANT)

elliot ness is the scan as inno tag

Lol I completely missed the post where he actually said I was innocent

[ghug]

We need Vecna to vote solo on a wagon.

Also, why?

Tags duh

[ghug]

ghug is mechanically town

Not 100% true

Ghug is playing at Bo's level this game, but I think he is 100% clear at this point.

You take that back or I'll make them hammer you.

[Chaqa]

As I type this up I realize worcej peeking now would solve a lot

[President Eden]

We need Vecna to vote solo on a wagon.

Also, why?

Tags duh

What if we made everyone vote themselves so we knew the double voter would be gone

[Hamilton Brian]

Also, why?

Tags duh

What if we made everyone vote themselves so we knew the double voter would be gone

Clever

[Bonatogether]

where is chaqa posting mechs for me to skip

[Hamilton Brian]

Would that move not be the most town move to make? And if that vote is on a mafia player, then all the better?

As in lots of things, there's probably a downside, but what's the downside?

[President Eden]

As I type this up I realize worcej peeking now would solve a lot

Do what you can, but it’s plausible that we should just be scumhunting and leaving mech solve until we might feasibly be at KILO.

Which I guess is technically now if a townie has the bomb, we kill them, the bomb blows up another townie, and the mafia ends up with the double vote and we end up with the no vote by tomorrow with no docsave. But realistically doesn’t happen until the day after our next misfire.

So actually, I would amend my earlier statements and say that we should mass peek and out with info at the end of the night following our next misfire day. That is today if we miss here, but not today if we hit.

I’m pretty torn between Vecna and HB so I will just give Bona his kill of choice. ##VOTE Hamilton Brian

[Rumi Tobari]

Tags duh

What if we made everyone vote themselves so we knew the double voter would be gone

Clever

I just realized that if we had done that on day 1 like I suggested when I had no idea what was going on, we'd know where the vote0 and votex2 tags were. Also votex2 might have DKed themself. Which would have been great if the votex2 was held by scum in D1.

but kinda sucky if we just voted off a townie just to get rid of it.

[President Eden]

Would that move not be the most town move to make? And if that vote is on a mafia player, then all the better?

As in lots of things, there's probably a downside, but what's the downside?

I was joking. We don’t have a day to waste like that. We can “waste” worcej’s presumptive no-vote, but we can’t waste the entire day

[President Eden]

Chaka late punt Chaka

[Chaqa]

Chaka late punt Chaka

So like I've got a really big wall of facts and some minor things but I haven't reached an "ah-ha" moment with it. Should I just post it in more or less "summary and raw info" format and we can look it over?

[Hamilton Brian]

Post it

[Chaqa]

In which I attempt to unravel the location of the 2-vote and 0-vote tags, eliminate suspects as the Bus Driver, and generally try to galaxy brain my way to success. Recommended reading instructions are dim light, Tame Impala on in the background, and medium to high amounts of Chipotle.

Underlined information can be considered "highlighted" and may be referenced later on. Assumptions will be colored in yellow when I find it important.

Terms:
0V - the 0-vote tag
2V - the 2-vote tag

The Voting Tags
I believe the first thing we need to figure out is who an where the voting tags have been. We have exactly three pieces of concrete information:

1. On Day 1, 0V and 2V were on the same wagon. Therefore: Neon, damo, rivera, bo, and pyxxy did not start with 0V or 2V.
2. On Day 2, worcej owned 0V. He may have started with it.
3. On Day 2, 2V was on Sabi's wagon.

We know that the Driver acted upon some order of Neon and Sabi on Night 1. We also know where Dargo and Jamie's actions went and were targeted. The only unknown from Night 1 is the Doctor, so there are some asterisks in here, but I will operate under the assumption that the Doctor would not have targeted SnowByz on Night 1.

This next part is pretty cool. So, we know that Sabi claims to have started with the Deathbomb. Assuming this is true, we know that the guilty tag that Sabi died with must have been given to them on Night 1. Likewise, it came from the last person to visit Sabi, which would have been Jamie. Therefore, we know that Jamie probably started with the Guilty Tag.

On Day 2, 2V was on Sabi's wagon. Also on Day 2, we have myself and Vecna claiming non-2V tags. It is my belief that the 0V and 2V tags did not move from D1 to D2, so this narrows down to ghug and celaph as the 2-voter.

I believe mafia would have been able to deduce this on Night 2 to some degree. They would have been able to narrow it down to celaph-ghug-Vecna having the 2V. We know ghug was not affected by the driver on Night 2. If Vecna dies with the same tag he claims he had on Day 2, celaph had the 2V to start, and is probably mafia. - this is actually a very strong reason to kill Vecna today lol

If the mafia didn't figure it out on Night 2, on Night 3 they should have. Based off known information, they would deduce celaph had the tag and try to steal it. So we can analyze this a bit more after today's vote.

Skipping ahead a bit, I've been trying to figure out what tag Jamie peeked on Day 3. He said it confirmed ghug being town, but it wasn't the Roger Murtaugh tag he died with. As far as I can tell, he never mentioned what his tag was, and that is EXTREMELY frustrating.

Moving on - on Day 1, I think it's incredibly more likely that 0V and 2V were on the damo wagon. Reasons being:

1. We know Jamie started with the Guilty Tag.
2. Eden and I have both claimed specific tags (granted mine could have been swapped by the Doctor on Night 1 but I doubt this). Rumi also claimed Andy Taylor on D2, but this could have been not their original tag.
3. Neither Bona nor Rumi had a 0V or 2V tag on D2 based on the vote count. In order for either of them to have started with them, both of them would have had to, but also simultaneously lose them on Night 1. The only unknowns from Night 1 are the Bus Driver and the Doctor. If the Bus Driver had one of these tags, it would either:
   1. Have gone to Sabi and then been passed to Jamie
   2. Have gone to Neon and then died with Dargo
   Neither of those things happened, based off of the Day 2 vote counts. Therefore, I think we can safely assume both 0V and 2V started amongst the Damo voters.

OK, now that we have that "proven" again, that gives us 2 interesting tags in a group of 7. We can quickly sort three of them:

• Sabi claimed D1 peek Deathbomb. I see no reason to disbelieve this.
• dargorygel's starting tag wound up on Neon on Day 2. We know Neon did not have a voting tag, so Dargo did not start with one.
• SnowByz could only have had a voting tag if the Doctor protected them on Night 1, which I find laughable.

By Day 3, we know one of two things is true:
1. Either 0V and 2V are in specifically Vecna and rivera's hands
2. Both 0V an 2V were on the snowy wagon

I believe it most likely that worcej kept the 0V tag, since no one would want it. If true, then the 2V tag on Day 3 is in the other snowy voters. We'll have more info on this after today.

The Bus Driver
Somewhat parallel to the vote tag analysis, we can attempt to deduce the identity of the Bus Driver. We know Neon and ghug are not the Bus Driver. We also know that if the 0V and 2V tags have stayed stationary, they are not in the hands of or have been moved by the driver. This is admittedly really basic but making note of it is important.

[worcej]

What do you townread in HB?

I still struggle to see why anyone scum reads HB now. Everything presented is a mechanical reason.

I'm admittedly still doing it because Neon's habit of going back on stances she makes in very opposite ways:
saying Snowy will not be judged on Byz's actions > saying Byz's actions will be considered
townereads me for my presumable AtE > scumreads me for the same thing
tells me that lying as town is a terrible thing and not to listen to Snowy > justifies why Sabi or Snowy would lie as town

I am willing to vote for someone else if I have someone I can clearly read as scum though.

You’re confirming my point - it’s Neon’s behavior or mechanics, but nothing HB is doing.

[Chaqa]

Basically... I think I've come around on voting out Vecna.

[worcej]

It is really hard to work anything definitive out about the double voter without knowing who the Doctor is and what they did, but we aren’t pressed hard enough to warrant outing that right now. It’s worth noting that we could be at KILO tomorrow; although it would be 6-3 (assuming a miss today and no doc save tonight), the mafia could have the double voter and the town could have the no voter, making it 5-4 in practice. For this reason, I think everyone who has not peeked yet should peek as close to EON4 as you can afford, and everyone should out their info D5 unless I say otherwise below. Ideally you should peek right at xx:59 so that if you’re a PR and accidentally Oracle yourself, the mafia won’t know it and be able to act. (Sorry if this makes a mess for you Demon!) Our Doctor should probably also out EON4 with info. The Bleeder is self-confirming and survives a nightkill, so doesn’t need to out until D5.

The big thing that we need to ensure in the meantime is that nobody fucks up worcej’s vanity wagon. Like, messing with it is a scumclaim kind of “nobody fucks with worcej’s vanity wagon.” worcej still having the no-vote would essentially town clear him, and worcej having a vote would at least be interesting if nothing else… wouldn’t damn him per se, but would require some investigation. We don’t need to vote worcej out here because his situation is so close to self-sorting, so anybody attempting to interfere with that should be presumed to have bad intentions and dealt with accordingly. DO NOT FUCK THIS UP.

Contrary to Chaqa’s earlier conclusion, I’m not sure that Vecna needs to vanity wagon here, or that anyone else does. I’m open to being overridden on this if anyone can think of a good reason, though.

If I have a vote, this post right here will be why I suspect the shit out of Eden next day phase.

Why?

It comes off as hedging and is just… not necessary to say at this point.

[President Eden]

Chaka late punt Chaka

So like I've got a really big wall of facts and some minor things but I haven't reached an "ah-ha" moment with it. Should I just post it in more or less "summary and raw info" format and we can look it over?

Is your “aha” moment realizing that we can’t really sort this without knowing what the Doctor did? Because that’s the only reason I didn’t dump the full Pepe Silvia wall o’ facts last night when I was checking your findings.

I don’t actually know that it matters a lot for today but if you think it’ll be helpful post what you have. Otherwise don’t worry about it

[worcej]

Can we feel secure in the notion that anyone that is clearly town will self-vote? I don't remember the particulars of what led to the start of that talk yesterday, but if that's the case Vecna and Worcej look good. Right? Pro-town play?

I feel this is missing context.

The "town shouldn't self-vote" thing came from one of my insincere and flippant "Okay, I'm scum" moments where people where shading me and I went along with by voting for myself.

I think the thing still trying to be determined here is whether worcej still has the vote0, though this could be accomplished by Worcej parking his vote on anyone, not just himself. I personally don't see why if we're trying to determine if he has the vote 0, if it matters that he's self-voting. Considering its a thing Eden seems to be using to try determine whether townread or scumread him.

The point of my self vote is that there will be no confusion about this. Either I have the 0 tag still or I don’t.