M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

[pyxxy]

My last post for the night (US west coast):

Most townie to most scummy:

DeathLlama
Sabi
TFB
Bona/macca
Maniac
Kak

[Maniac]

I’m tempted to suggest we should also be thinking about our strongest town reads. We have to ensure that we pay attention to where our strong town reads are voting at EOD. I’m not anticipating that people will sheep me, but if antine really can’t have confidence in a scum read, consider sheeping a strong town read.

Who do you think that is then?

Pxxxy

[Maniac]

##vite Bona

@pxxxy - you seem to be really trying and that’s great. I have you solidly town to the point I’d sheep you. Not only do every town need to be right today but we need to all be on the same person.

However, you really need to give your head a wobble about my low posting especially thinking it’s OK to lose and then be smug that you tried more than other town players.

I’m not mentioning any names but people have got this idea that there is one way to play mafia and not only do all other styles suck but it’s their job to actively make people play there way. Even to the point they will consistently risk losing games to make others play their way.

Newsflash to all that think like that: that thinking is far far far more anti-town than low posting. I’m not going to change my play style and I will keep joining games. I used to be one of the games big posters and get nightkilled N1 and consistently had people say ‘I can’t read maniac’ so they’d daykill me if scum didn’t NK me early. My new style is here to stay. If that means you (pxxxy) are going to kill me sooner in future then so be it. But it’s anti-town and isn’t going to pressure me into changing.

[Maniac]

##vote Macca

[Maniac]

List scum > town

Macca/Bona
TFB


Deathlama
Kak
Sabi



Pxxxy

[TheFlyingBoat]

@Sabi - being infuriated by me is no at good reason to kill me.

We have very limited actual information this game, but we shouldn't ignore the info we have.

I urge everyone to look again closely at D2 especially the final run in.

5 minutes to go unknown!Maniac votes for Unknown!Bona putting them in the lead.

Unknown!DeathLlame then places a naked vote on Town!Aarodactyl. He had signposted that he was likely to do this 25 mins earlier. Did that give scum info to miskill Aarodactyl?

Town!Aaro then votes town!Damo, setting up Town!Aaro v Town!Damo v unknown!Bona 3v3v3

Unknown!TFB switches from Town!Damo to Town!aaro leaving Town!Aaro v unknown!Bona but all could see Bona hadn't yet voted. Unknown!Bona votes Town!aaro almost sealing Aaro's fate and Town!Damo then votes unknown!Bona.

Town!aaro is killed by slimmest of margins. THREE unknowns voted for them in the last 2 minutes. The unknown!Bona voter were unknown!Maniac, Unknown!Sabi, Town!Jamie and Town!Damo. It's entirely possible that all Unknown!Bona voters were Town.

We absolutely have to kill from Bona, TFB and Deathlama today. I think Deathlama is more null than scum, but other two are strong scum candidates.

I've already pointed out that when TFB was lead wagon on D1 it was Bona that stepped off and onto Town!Celaph and the Town!Durga.

Odds are really against us, but we could play a prediction game just to see if Town could've won this if it played optimum from here on in.

My scum reads are Bona, TFB and then from DL, Sabi and Kak.

Agreed that Sabi being annoyed with you is a poor reason to kill you.

I do caution you from solely relying on the bot for analysis like this and suggest you also look at the thread for context beyond the final 30 mins. For example at the top of the day I made it clear I thought one of the D1 wagons were scum and didn't think either of them appeared particularly townie at the time. So imo given that and that as explained previously, when I cast my vote that Bona and Aaro were tied and Damo was on 2, it should have been fairly obvious and predictable why I did what I did, especially given the context of the arguments I had about snowy where he wanted to kill Aaro and I wanted to kill Damo.

As for why I townread bona at the time, I just don't think scum!bona posts the way he did. I don't think he argues with Durga the way he did. I don't think he argues with me the way he did. Going after two players who are generally very talkative and very good at avoiding miskills is not a play you make as scum. I genuinely believe both of those arguments were TvTs. Everything about Bona came off as town!bona, which is why I tried so hard to get him out of his tunnel and to focus on solving.

It seems way too over simplistic to say that all three or even two of the three late aaro voters must be or are likely scum. For that to be true, bona would need to be scum, as otherwise it would be very much in scum's interest to let bona die knowing it would deprive town of crucial information to process D1. However, if you actually read Bona's posts D1 and D2 it is hard to come away from that with the impression he is scum for reasons mentioned above and for the tone of his posts. We have zero room for error here and I think pursuing a Bona kill here would be a mistake.

Here is my town core:
DL
Bona/macca

My lean town reads:
pyxxy

Which leaves me with a scum team of:
Maniac
Sabi
Kak

I'll explain why that's my scum team in the next post per snowy's anti wall request.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Kak has posted 39 times. Yes there a lot of words, but thousands of them can be safely ignored as useless flavor, that while fun doesn't actually help him solve the game or us read him. So just skip it.

skimmed through the kakposts and afaik here's everything that directly relates to the game

While eating the bread (a bit old but tasting okay), he thought about the next things. He had seen everyone at the meeting except the two sleeping ones, maybe he should start inquiring there first to get the gist of what their business is ... [][]vote Jamiet

"That's strange ..." he thought, "... as soon as the sleeping one woke up, that other guy ... I guess I call him 'Yes-man' ... cheered at everything he had to say. At the village center he only agreed to two things that shipmaker had to say ... is he a fan of this one who just woke up?" He took some notes.

"Well, other than that nothing really suspicious ... other than he woke up for a bit just when I started to investigate there and now he sits on the porch just looking. Doesn't seen like he had noticed me either ..." More note taking sounds.

"Well ... I guess that's at least some information. Now, how about the other one ..." He moved over a bit for a better view and started investigating the other house ... [][]vote maniac

He looked on a board, seemingly with some names on it. He tried to sort them to the villagers, then went and sat down next to one. "Say, you seemed to be really sure that this one" he pointed to the villager who wanted him gone "is bad, but after you pointed that out you just seemed to sit here and watch the whole thing ... say, can you tell me, what your thoughts about the current situation is, exactly?" he said with a smile. [][]vote damo666

This summary of his D1 posts tells us everything useful he had to say up until Page 17.

His reads list EoN seems useful until you read it viewtopic.php?p=298163#p298163

And realize it is hedged harder than anything I've ever seen before. Everything but his scum read on damo and his town read on rdr who died that night was super hedged or completely missing. Only rdr got a clear townread without any sort of waffling or caveating. Literally every other read is some variation of "could be mafia, could be town" or "I don't know what to make of it".

Also really odd in there is the call to scan Sabi and the comments about Sabi being unlikely to be the godfather. What possible town motivation is there to say that when he did?

If you look at the rest of his posts it really reminds me of scum!sabi's style where a lot of questions are asked but the answers aren't important to the asker in any meaningful way, except done better insofar as it is less blatantly obvious at the time that the questions aren't serious questions. Most of D2 seems littered with this stuff by him.

My scum read on sabi flows directly from the kak link but also is supported by their lack of meaningful contribution to this game. Like seriously after 10 posts hard cap on D1 followed by a couple decent posts d2, all I can remember from d3 and d4 are poor questions interspersed with activity calls (not something hard to fake if needed as literally every active person says it)

Maniac I'll explain tomorrow as it is 1am

[Kakarroto]

pyxxy, about the yes-man (I pointed out that aaro upvoted only two posts for boat, but all of jamie's posts) flavour and the other (villager I sit next to is damo where I pointed out that he voted durga and then kept silent, then just after I engage him he suddenly jumps on bona and closely afterwards onto me) (also still sad that you didn't identify the post on the clearing with your 'moonlight underground grime artist').

boat thinking my flavour could be ignored is just wrong, I clearly ingrated my thought process (after page 1 which were the three prewritten) in there. Maybe I did a bad job making it clearer, but flat out ignoring it is just wrong.

for my reads and who I think is mafia? I don't really know. I see all kinds of different combinations of the maf team. Right now I kinda lean to DL-pyxxy-boat who all showed a mis- or no-read of my posts, though the DL-maniac connection I saw is popping into my head everytime I think about the game, I question the townread bona had at the beginning and if he was just pocketing me, sabi hasn't obv towned for me but isn't clear maf either, I'm sad that worcej didn't post his final thoughts before the end of the night since I feared that kind of thing but nobody listened to me, I don't know how serious I can take jamie's read about maniac, jamie had a good nose a few times the last games but also spearheaded miskills, though maybe it is maniac now and three times the charm, who knows.

seeing the choices (2 on each maniac and me, 1 on macca/bona) I'm pretty sure mafia is trying to get a low hanging fruit. Maybe town here is too, maybe we have an all town buffet right now again. Maybe maniac is the correct choice here but with this day a potential last day, mafia might just lose much of their guard and try to homerun the game. Maybe boat gave us the whole team with him reading DL and bona as town core and I am just wrong about the interactions between the two of them (bona-boat) that I judged couldn't be mafia theatre. I mean I still think that's pretty unlikely, but seeing how I was wrong about damo I'm just blargh and not confident about most things.

Chances are the votes are on all town right now, due to mafia and misreads. I mean looking back at our vote history, that's not an unreasonable thought (in case maniac is town). Maybe I should vote macca/bona here to make it 2/2/2 but that doesn't feel right. Maybe bona did a too good job of pocketing me and I can't read him like chaqa or eden (maybe I should've subbed out to call in chaqa for that and more) but I kinda don't want to vote bona here (I swear if you are mafia here bona I will ... I will ... probably throw a lot more tantrum with the green in amongus and be much more sus of you in future games).

with all that said, I'll ##vote boat

also, if we now managed to only vote town and the team is DL-pyxxy-sabi, I'll just retreat into a corner and cry for a while.

[DeathLlama8]

- appreciate pyxxy's analysis work. i think it's pretty unlikely scum!pyxxy rereads maniac twice on accident like that and have him as a solid town read at this point.

- not thrilled with macca's entrance to the game tbh. they committed to a scumteam pretty early but for some relatively weak reasoning, and haven't really updated or strengthened their reads (especially on maniac, who they've had as their top scumread since coming in) since stating them. i didn't especially scumread bona though, so i don't think flipping this slot is the priority today.

[DeathLlama8]

kak picking his scumteam exclusively based on who he thinks has misread his posts on day five

you could not make this up

[Maniac]

@Deathllama

I’ve also got pxxxy as solid town and that’s reinforced by them accidentally reading me twice.

Shall we make a pact to sheep pxxxy. If either of us are scum (obviously I know I’m not) what we do is ensure a strong town figure gets to have their say today. If they’re right and we kill scum, they are likely are likely a NK target, but at least the game goes on and we’ll have another DK analysis to trawl over.

What do you say?

[TheFlyingBoat]

pyxxy, about the yes-man (I pointed out that aaro upvoted only two posts for boat, but all of jamie's posts) flavour and the other (villager I sit next to is damo where I pointed out that he voted durga and then kept silent, then just after I engage him he suddenly jumps on bona and closely afterwards onto me) (also still sad that you didn't identify the post on the clearing with your 'moonlight underground grime artist').

boat thinking my flavour could be ignored is just wrong, I clearly ingrated my thought process (after page 1 which were the three prewritten) in there. Maybe I did a bad job making it clearer, but flat out ignoring it is just wrong.

for my reads and who I think is mafia? I don't really know. I see all kinds of different combinations of the maf team. Right now I kinda lean to DL-pyxxy-boat who all showed a mis- or no-read of my posts, though the DL-maniac connection I saw is popping into my head everytime I think about the game, I question the townread bona had at the beginning and if he was just pocketing me, sabi hasn't obv towned for me but isn't clear maf either, I'm sad that worcej didn't post his final thoughts before the end of the night since I feared that kind of thing but nobody listened to me, I don't know how serious I can take jamie's read about maniac, jamie had a good nose a few times the last games but also spearheaded miskills, though maybe it is maniac now and three times the charm, who knows.

seeing the choices (2 on each maniac and me, 1 on macca/bona) I'm pretty sure mafia is trying to get a low hanging fruit. Maybe town here is too, maybe we have an all town buffet right now again. Maybe maniac is the correct choice here but with this day a potential last day, mafia might just lose much of their guard and try to homerun the game. Maybe boat gave us the whole team with him reading DL and bona as town core and I am just wrong about the interactions between the two of them (bona-boat) that I judged couldn't be mafia theatre. I mean I still think that's pretty unlikely, but seeing how I was wrong about damo I'm just blargh and not confident about most things.

Chances are the votes are on all town right now, due to mafia and misreads. I mean looking back at our vote history, that's not an unreasonable thought (in case maniac is town). Maybe I should vote macca/bona here to make it 2/2/2 but that doesn't feel right. Maybe bona did a too good job of pocketing me and I can't read him like chaqa or eden (maybe I should've subbed out to call in chaqa for that and more) but I kinda don't want to vote bona here (I swear if you are mafia here bona I will ... I will ... probably throw a lot more tantrum with the green in amongus and be much more sus of you in future games).

with all that said, I'll ##vote boat

also, if we now managed to only vote town and the team is DL-pyxxy-sabi, I'll just retreat into a corner and cry for a while.

This can't be real ##vote Kak

[Kakarroto]

why can't it be real, boat? what is so unreal that you think a town member would never post that? please, for the uneducated, point out what exactly you cannot believe here.

isn't it more probable that mafia let the damo miskill happen, planning to focus on the one who drove it into the ground? to make a consolidated effort to pick that low hanging fruit, shading the past days? No?

Do you think I would even post something like this with a 24/7 chat as a mafia member? think, boatman, think

then again, I'm pretty sure at least 2/3rds of mafia are on me, I mean a DL-pyxxy-boat team could be true too, but would they be so blatantly obvious ... well, I'm not sure, maybe, what do you think, macca, sabi, maniac?

[TheFlyingBoat]

why can't it be real, boat? what is so unreal that you think a town member would never post that? please, for the uneducated, point out what exactly you cannot believe here.

isn't it more probable that mafia let the damo miskill happen, planning to focus on the one who drove it into the ground? to make a consolidated effort to pick that low hanging fruit, shading the past days? No?

Do you think I would even post something like this with a 24/7 chat as a mafia member? think, boatman, think

then again, I'm pretty sure at least 2/3rds of mafia are on me, I mean a DL-pyxxy-boat team could be true too, but would they be so blatantly obvious ... well, I'm not sure, maybe, what do you think, macca, sabi, maniac?

You can't seriously be making a reads list based on who "misread" your well-written but obfuscatory flavor at KILO. Literally no town would ever do that. For the love of God, if I’m actually wrong give me something to work with and real reads based on the actual game that tell me who else is scum. Based on my reading of it I’m strongly inclined to view you as the most likely person. Also, word to the wise, it’d be really dumb to assume that the less active among us even read your posts let alone read them better.

[Maniac]

I don’t regard you as a top scum lead. I actually think you waving a (fake) gun around is more likely town.

[Kakarroto]

Vielleicht sollte ich es lassen und alles nur mehr auf deutsch schreiben, möglicherweise verstehen das die Leute dann alle besser.

Or maybe don't.

But what I said was genuine and you will see that after the game. That's why I wanted Jamie/worcej to make a decision last game day because I was the most sure about that slot being town. I truly think everyone left here could be mafia, I just don't know who it is. I just know it's not me. Can't you see maf-DL saying that last day to decrease town members for an easy miskill? Too bad worcej didn't comply and was taken from us. But DL did also shade me for days and elevate maniac. I could see maf-DL doing that to town- or maf-maniac, I don't know how you guys can see him as so towny. Why is he then still alive?

I mean sure I could be wrong here too, I was so sure about damo, but nobody pointed a thing about my findings out as wrong or unrelated so I'm sure mafia just put in more firewood to increase the flames of my desire to vote him out from a safe distance and town didn't question my findings before the flip. Well there were voices of 'damo is town' and stuff, but nothing that explained or defused what I brought to the table. It's like whatever I had posted, it was ignored but the basic synopsis you could think of. And not reading or trying to understand what's behind it is pretty shabby. Makes me think why people want to play a textbased game and not just play it in discord or another voice medium.

@maniac that's cool, but I wanted to ask you three what you think about the people voting for me, would mafia in your opinion do that so two or three just hop onto me to end the game or do you think that is town driven?

[pyxxy]

I’m not mentioning any names but people have got this idea that there is one way to play mafia and not only do all other styles suck but it’s their job to actively make people play there way. Even to the point they will consistently risk losing games to make others play their way.

Newsflash to all that think like that: that thinking is far far far more anti-town than low posting. I’m not going to change my play style and I will keep joining games. I used to be one of the games big posters and get nightkilled N1 and consistently had people say ‘I can’t read maniac’ so they’d daykill me if scum didn’t NK me early. My new style is here to stay. If that means you (pxxxy) are going to kill me sooner in future then so be it. But it’s anti-town and isn’t going to pressure me into changing.

I appreciate the history. I lack context like that.

However, I very specifically said that low posting is not why I scumlean you currently.

I would happily vote for Maniac and be wrong because, regardless of posting volume, Maniac has done barely anything to actually help town in this game. I can't pretty easily take some lessons learned away from this game if it ends on a Maniac miskill, and still smugly smile knowing that Maniac helped town lose at least 5 times more than I did.

As Sabi said, the bar cannot be this low, even for Maniac, and in future games I will kill him sooner for any repeated low level of effort.

It's your lack of town behavior than makes you sus. Simple as that.

[Maniac]

Vielleicht sollte ich es lassen und alles nur mehr auf deutsch schreiben, möglicherweise verstehen das die Leute dann alle besser.

Or maybe don't.

But what I said was genuine and you will see that after the game. That's why I wanted Jamie/worcej to make a decision last game day because I was the most sure about that slot being town. I truly think everyone left here could be mafia, I just don't know who it is. I just know it's not me. Can't you see maf-DL saying that last day to decrease town members for an easy miskill? Too bad worcej didn't comply and was taken from us. But DL did also shade me for days and elevate maniac. I could see maf-DL doing that to town- or maf-maniac, I don't know how you guys can see him as so towny. Why is he then still alive?

I mean sure I could be wrong here too, I was so sure about damo, but nobody pointed a thing about my findings out as wrong or unrelated so I'm sure mafia just put in more firewood to increase the flames of my desire to vote him out from a safe distance and town didn't question my findings before the flip. Well there were voices of 'damo is town' and stuff, but nothing that explained or defused what I brought to the table. It's like whatever I had posted, it was ignored but the basic synopsis you could think of. And not reading or trying to understand what's behind it is pretty shabby. Makes me think why people want to play a textbased game and not just play it in discord or another voice medium.

@maniac that's cool, but I wanted to ask you three what you think about the people voting for me, would mafia in your opinion do that so two or three just hop onto me to end the game or do you think that is town driven?

Idk - pxxxy is strong town tfb is scum I think and DL is in same bracket as you.

If pxxxy makes it between me and you and you are town then we’ve already lost. If pxxxy votes you at end then so will I and hope they’re right.

[DeathLlama8]

@Deathllama

I’ve also got pxxxy as solid town and that’s reinforced by them accidentally reading me twice.

Shall we make a pact to sheep pxxxy. If either of us are scum (obviously I know I’m not) what we do is ensure a strong town figure gets to have their say today. If they’re right and we kill scum, they are likely are likely a NK target, but at least the game goes on and we’ll have another DK analysis to trawl over.

What do you say?

I'll probably defer to him if kak isn't a viable target by the time we're consolidating

[DeathLlama8]

I've reread kak again and tried to give him the benefit of the doubt but I still think he's our best shot at scum today:

• I don't see a genuine attempt to engage in the scumhunting process from his posts. There is content, but there's no drive behind it. Even when he stops flavorposting, he spends a lot of time dumping question walls without any real desire to follow up on them. More recently, a lot of his commentary has been adjacent to scumhunting without directly driving town forward, such as all the gun discussion, the "everyone is town" segue, and more recently just scumreading everyone who has "misread" his posts. The vibe I get from the posts is more someone trying to seem busy than someone actively trying to advance the town's win condition.

• The push on damo was basically his only strong read for the first few days (his reads have generally been pretty static). But after damo flipped town, which should've been like world-shattering for his worldview this game, he didn't make an effort to update his reads based on this new information, which I find scum-indicative.

• Circumstantially, there seems to have been significant inertia around trying to build his wagon both day two (town tried a late flash but it didn't pick up) and day three (briefly got into the lead and quickly dissolved after that). In the sense that there isn't explicit opposition, but just a lot of players not scumreading him and not really engaging with the arguments against him at all.

my best guess right now is kak/bona/sabi but the other two are somewhat dependent on kak flipping scum