M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

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DeathLlama8
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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2141 Post by DeathLlama8 » Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:31 pm

general question for people who are convinced that maniac is scum: how would you expect maniac's teammates to react to him being a major wagon on days two and three, and do you think that happened? if so, who does this point to?

also in general we really need to figure out the bulk of the analysis work today. if even a single townie is wrong today we lose, so it's important to get arguments out and build consensus asap

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2142 Post by pyxxy » Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:02 pm

BesharamSabi wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 6:29 pm
@pyxxy what did you get out of your retreads in terms on who to vote for?
tl;dr I'm feeling less scum on Bona. I think. I've got work + job interview prep until late, maybe will read the thread + do more re-reads in ~7 hours.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2143 Post by BesharamSabi » Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:07 pm

pyxxy wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:02 pm
BesharamSabi wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 6:29 pm
@pyxxy what did you get out of your retreads in terms on who to vote for?
tl;dr I'm feeling less scum on Bona. I think. I've got work + job interview prep until late, maybe will read the thread + do more re-reads in ~7 hours.
Have you narrowed down a poe? And good luck.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2144 Post by BesharamSabi » Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:08 pm

Maniac wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:31 pm
I’m tempted to suggest we should also be thinking about our strongest town reads. We have to ensure that we pay attention to where our strong town reads are voting at EOD. I’m not anticipating that people will sheep me, but if antine really can’t have confidence in a scum read, consider sheeping a strong town read.
Who do you think that is then?

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2145 Post by BesharamSabi » Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:11 pm

Macca573 wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:30 am
#SwingTheSubs...???
Macca,,,, any reason for this post since you're a sub?

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2146 Post by Macca573 » Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:33 am

BesharamSabi wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:11 pm
Macca573 wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:30 am
#SwingTheSubs...???
Macca,,,, any reason for this post since you're a sub?
It was an attempt at humour, since the scum team seemed to be doing it.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2147 Post by Macca573 » Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:35 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:31 pm
general question for people who are convinced that maniac is scum: how would you expect maniac's teammates to react to him being a major wagon on days two and three, and do you think that happened? if so, who does this point to?

also in general we really need to figure out the bulk of the analysis work today. if even a single townie is wrong today we lose, so it's important to get arguments out and build consensus asap
Just a warning. At 10am tomorrow (EOD) I will be in a practical class. No computer. I will try to get in around 7am (EOD-3), but that's about the latest I can do.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2148 Post by BesharamSabi » Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:39 am

I do think it's odd that Llama pushed for no kill when Maniac was getting wagoned in d4 and then is questioning the Maniac scumreads in d5.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2149 Post by BesharamSabi » Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:40 am

I also don't like the fact we are at the end game (it's kilo right???) and there's only two votes and have less than a day left till eod.....

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2150 Post by President Eden » Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:52 am

DAY 5 VOTE COUNT 1

Maniac (2): Macca573, BesharamSabi

Not Yet Voted (5): DeathLlama8, Kakarroto, Maniac , pyxxy, TheFlyingBoat

Currently Maniac is set to be killed at the end of Day 5 in approximately 21h08m.

DeathLlama8, Kakarroto, Maniac , pyxxy, and TheFlyingBoat have not met minimum participation requirements.
3

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2151 Post by DeathLlama8 » Tue Apr 05, 2022 3:51 am

BesharamSabi wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:39 am
I do think it's odd that Llama pushed for no kill when Maniac was getting wagoned in d4 and then is questioning the Maniac scumreads in d5.
i would like you to explain, in your own words, where you think i'm explicitly questioning the maniac scumreads.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2152 Post by DeathLlama8 » Tue Apr 05, 2022 3:56 am

soliciting opinions on kak as the daykill today

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2153 Post by DeathLlama8 » Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:00 am

not getting a ton of new info from knowing damo's alignment at EOD2. Maniac did put bona in the lead with five minutes left, so they're probably not scum teammates. tfb/pyxxy are both plausible teammates for scum!kak but I remember them both having reasonable explanations for voting elsewhere. I think I'm inclined to give Maniac less towncred for how the wagon around him formed compared to what I said N2 though, as (1) the wagon only got to three votes and (2) scum would probably bus him if he was a wagon.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2154 Post by DeathLlama8 » Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:07 am

i think i still feel best about ##vote kak at this point

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2155 Post by pyxxy » Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:16 am

Seems like I should probably re-read Kak and Maniac.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2156 Post by pyxxy » Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:50 am

Re-reading Kakarroto:

D1:
- (first 3 wallposts do read as pre-written as Kak explained)
- thinks that aaro (Yes-Man) is sheeping TFB? (shipbuilder?), votes Maniac
- switches to Damo after some time
- (I can't make heads nor tails of the theme posts, sorry)
- Vote: Jamie, Maniac, ends on Damo

N1:
- nadda

D2:
- drops a big reads post at -48:00
- likes DL, null on basically everyone else with small negs about small things
- thinks Damo was PR hunting
- interacts with DL and some other people, asks a few question (town-y behavior imo)
- really only talks with Damo, Snowy, TFB, aaro, Sabi, and DL
- once with Celaph a little
- Vote: spends the literal entire D2 voting for Damo

N2:
- at -01:01, posts reads + weirdly claims to have a gun from RDR
- post also has a bunch of light reads, bit sus on Damo, Jamie, and Maniac

D3:
- immediately shades Maniac for not posting enough, votes Damo again
- (goes ~30 hours without posting)
- very confident that Damo is mafia, engages Damo in discussion
- (ed note: Damo voted Kak on D1 and pushed him repeatedly through D3, so I could see Kak's votes being OMGUS)
- now thinks Jamie is town, also townleans Sabi
- thinks scumteam damo-DL-maniac is possible
- Vote: spends the literal entire D2 voting for Damo

N3:
- is convinced it's an all town setup

D4:
- again quickly opens the day with a vote, this time on Maniac
- moves to No Kill once the thread momentum is apparent

N4:
- nadda

D5:
- explains that the RDR gun post was supposed to be a joke
- does some good thinking about theoretical item distributions
------------
My re-read leaves me feeling more extreme about Kak.

Prior to this, any scumleanings I had against Kak were mostly around the perception of low posting/lack of interest in helping town.

Now I can see that he did try in the beginning, and did help hunt (wrongly) for Damo and D2 + D3, spending most of his posts engaging with Damo.
---------------
What I don't like is that Kak's scumleans/scumreads seem incredibly inflexible throughout the game.

His D1 contribution is saying he feels Jamie, Maniac, and Damo are slightly sus. From there, there's really not movement. Kak is consistent in sussing these three until he moves Jamie to solid town on D3.

I absolutely agree that pushing and investigating your scumleans is good town play, and I think that is reflected in how Kak interacts with Damo.

But the move to townread Jamie once Jamie felt pretty solidly town plus the lack of any interest in other wagons feel....very odd. Something just feels off.

There's no interest in the Aaro wagon...but also not really any attempt to push people off of it on D2? He's even content to shade aaro a few times, including this:
Kakarroto wrote:
Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:11 pm
@snowy and boat what if aaro and damo are both mafia? is that possible or probable? could it be that it was SvSvT and durga got the short end of the stick?
^this is D2 -25:49. This just feels super weird? Just a really confident "let me throw out that these two are def mafia". It just seems odd.
----------
I feel much worse about Kak than before my re-read. Enough that, going into my Maniac re-read, I would ##VOTE Kakarroto over Maniac right now.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2157 Post by pyxxy » Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:55 am

Interlude:

I have null reads on Sabi and DeathLlama8. I just cannot sync up with either's vibes in this game. I expect that I would do better in future games with them.
--------
EOD is gonna be a shitshow, huh.
--------
@DL, I am voting Kak in part to see what you'll do. Just want to be transparent.
--------
Everyone needs to put a vote out asap. It is incredibly favorable for scum to just not vote and flash wagon something at the end.

We need votes from:
Kakarroto
Maniac
TheFlyingBoat

Please just put someone down for now. I promise not to read too heavily into it.
--------
Actually it's kinda surprising that Kak doesn't have a vote in yet, after so quickly voting for Maniac on D5. Why would a Maniac wagon be bad now? It honestly reads slightly as Kak waiting to join whatever wagon forms.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2158 Post by pyxxy » Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:21 am

Re-reading Maniac:

D1:
- votes aaro for the reason of "he posts too much" (yes really)
- says the EOD timing is rough for UK, so parking on aaro
- switches to Damo at -00:01
- Vote: opens jokey on Celaph, moves to aaro, last second switch to Damo

N1:
- claims his EOD vote was a strategy to mess with scum

D2:
- opens voting Damo because it's unlikely that Damo got an item (true)
- sus on pyxxy, aaro, TFB
- townreads Celaph and Snowy
- shifts to hard scumreading Jamie at -00:27 (could be OMGUS)
- but then shifts to Bona at -00:05
- Vote: Damo, Jamie, Bona

N2:
- nothing of note

D3:
- opens voting Bona about 16 hours into the day, says he will only vote Bona or Damo
- throws out that weird end vote
- Vote: Bona, Damo, Bona, Damo

N3:
- scum list top 4: Bona, TFB, DeathLama, Kak
- hard pushing that we _have_ to kill Bona

D4:
- Pushes Bona again, drops some arguments for low posting =/= scum
- switches to No Kill + another confusing end vote
- his defense is mostly "what have I done that's actually scummy?"

N4:
- nadda

D5:
- scum reads are Bona, TFB and then from DL, Sabi and Kak
- suggests that we put forward our town reads
----------------
The key argument against Maniac remains that not helping town is inherently scummy, and so it's not enough to repeatedly claim "I haven't done anything actively scummy" as it's a disingenuous argument.

Maniac gives me similar odd vibes as Kak re: sticking on D1 scumleans and never changing.

The EOD D1 vote switch thing is weird. The entire post hard scumreading Jamie reads as an attempt to piss Jamie off, not a real analysis. Maniac posted about re-reading during N4 and yet hasn't posted anything from that yet here on D5.

I think it's a little odd how Kak and Maniac align on sussing Damo from D1 onwards and Bona from D2 onwards.
-------------
I would happily vote for Maniac and be wrong because, regardless of posting volume, Maniac has done barely anything to actually help town in this game. I can't pretty easily take some lessons learned away from this game if it ends on a Maniac miskill, and still smugly smile knowing that Maniac helped town lose at least 5 times more than I did.

As Sabi said, the bar cannot be this low, even for Maniac, and in future games I will kill him sooner for any repeated low level of effort.
------------
Sticking with my Kak vote for now.

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2159 Post by pyxxy » Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:25 am

lmao wait I just re-re-read Maniac

rip

glad to see that I came to most of the same conclusions though

onto DL

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Re: M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

#2160 Post by pyxxy » Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:46 am

Re-reading DeathLlama8 (DL):

(alright I'm getting tired so this won't have the same level of detail)
D1:
(I like the level of effort. Already quoting people. Already asking pointed questions.)
- thinks the case against Durga is weak
- likes Sabi's posting limit as early game
- searches for if people might want to vote pyxxy
- thinks pyxxy should have pushed a Damo wagon harder if it was sincere (my phrasing)
- fine with killing Damo
- votes Durga to avoid a tie

N1:
- somewhat sus on Maniac for attempted tie?
- was already sus on Maniac for maybe starting a wagon opportunistically
(okay I'm too tired)

D2:
- vote pyxxy + good analysis of why pyxxy might be scum
- (caves once I say I'm heading to AYCE hotpot)
- townleans Celaph
- content to vote Aaro or flash wagon Kak

N2:
- townreads Maniac based on EOD D2 VCA
- thinks it was sus how the Kak wagon stalled out, lack of scum interest?
- (EON) townreads Maniac, Celaph, and "Bona?"
- (EON) scumread pyxxy, kak
- (EON) null/fine with killing sabi, damo

D3:
- critiques Kak for under-contributing
- believes that Damo DK might reveal more information now
- talks with me about the Bona/TFB VCA
- feeling kak > damo > maniac > bona for voting preference

(eh nothing N3, good stuff D4 onwards)
----------
I like DL. I townread DL. He's either cagey town thinking about the game or actually great scum play and I will respect being hustled without any bad feelings.

I think the biggest thing against Llama is the lack of pushing wagons that hard, although he tries to start one on me, and really I'm the last person who should be arguing this point :razz:

I especially like the D2 VCA. Now that we know Aaro _and_ Damo were both town, it definitely does look like there was no scum moving to the Kak wagon, which....makes Kak look like scum.

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