M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

[TheMadMonarch]

hi macca! what are you thinking right now

also the probability of kak having a gun is equal to the probability that rdr wasn’t roleblocked n1, times the probability that he gave a gun out n1, times the probability that he specifically gave it to kak.

Ahh, so there's no real suspicion of that? Worcej just said something about it.

I'm still thinking Maniac.

Why do we think they knocked worcej? I thought SwingTheSubs was a townplay?

[TheMadMonarch]

##VOTE Maniac

[pyxxy]

hi macca! what are you thinking right now

also the probability of kak having a gun is equal to the probability that rdr wasn’t roleblocked n1, times the probability that he gave a gun out n1, times the probability that he specifically gave it to kak.

Ahh, so there's no real suspicion of that? Worcej just said something about it.

I'm still thinking Maniac.

Why do we think they knocked worcej? I thought SwingTheSubs was a townplay?

I'm pretty sure it's because we (we? me at least) had such a strong town read on Jamie that we would just town read worcej in return.

but mafia will surely pick out the towniest of towns to remove from the game, no? So it removes a rock solid town to gather around and makes it easier for mafia to control the vote on the crucial day.

Who is currently the towniest town in your opinion?

I would have said Celaph before N3, then maybe Jamie before the sub. Now I have no idea.

^I was trying to see if town would reply to this and introduce some doubt, possibly saving worcej and making our lives a little easier. Alas.

[TheMadMonarch]

hi macca! what are you thinking right now

also the probability of kak having a gun is equal to the probability that rdr wasn’t roleblocked n1, times the probability that he gave a gun out n1, times the probability that he specifically gave it to kak.

Ahh, so there's no real suspicion of that? Worcej just said something about it.

I'm still thinking Maniac.

Why do we think they knocked worcej? I thought SwingTheSubs was a townplay?

I'm pretty sure it's because we (we? me at least) had such a strong town read on Jamie that we would just town read worcej in return.

but mafia will surely pick out the towniest of towns to remove from the game, no? So it removes a rock solid town to gather around and makes it easier for mafia to control the vote on the crucial day.

Who is currently the towniest town in your opinion?

I would have said Celaph before N3, then maybe Jamie before the sub. Now I have no idea.

^I was trying to see if town would reply to this and introduce some doubt, possibly saving worcej and making our lives a little easier. Alas.

That makes sense.

[pyxxy]

Doing some re-reading.

I'll honor the memory of Snowy and break it up into small-ish chunks.
---
Maniac:

The thing that I can't get past with Maniac is the lack of posting in the context of his contributions.

I've already implied that I don't think posting or participation minimums are good things. As a newer player, I can understand why people might want to enforce norms that make a game feel active and engaging, but ultimately I see it as soft-banning a strategy that you don't like.

If the strategy doesn't work as town or as scum, then just critique it as such and vote of its practitioners. No need for making rules. Besides the "you must vote" rule, that's useful, I like that one.

I see it as a failing on my part and a lesson for my future games not advocating to kill the lurkers, even if my only intention is to force them to post more.

Given all this and my first game M73, I think Maniac's frustration with Jamie is fairly reasonable.

[pyxxy]

What I don't find reasonable is stuff like this:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... D1-&g=1021

N2 -23:46

Rip aarodactyl

EOD was quiet and then pretty busy. Maybe we did put scum under pressure?

N2 -02:08

Hey Celaph and Kak, come and play

D3 -41:16

Rip Snowy

D3 -28:55

##vote bona

I get this sense that everyone is town and Eden and Ghug are running some experiment here.

We're at 7 town 3 scum. The worst thing we can do now is bring in new wagon. Snowy, Aaro and Rdriveria all had damo and bona as scum. I won't vote outside this pairing today. I can't see any other candidate getting wide support.

D3 -24:20

Hey Celaph, you OK?

D3 -24:19

##end

This might be a good strategy actually.

This is literally all of Maniac's posts between the start of N2 and mid-way through D3. This is what Jamie as so frustrated with.

There's no effort in these posts. And then the jokes at Celaph not posting, when Maniac has done so much less? And then the defensiveness about lurking feels honest...but does it ring true because Maniac has been active in scum chat and so feels like he's paid plenty of attention to this game?

(objection, speculation, sustained)

Here's every time Maniac has mentioned Bona, his most consistent wagon:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... D1-&g=1021

Maybe I'm searching too strictly on names, but this is the only post that presents an argument for why Maniac thinks Bona is scum:

D3 -01:00

Bona and TFB + ?? would make sense as a team.

Bona being the first person to come off TFB's wagon and TFB being the fourth voter on Aarodactyl allowing Bona to make it aaro 5 v Bona 4.

That's after spending almost an entire day with his vote on Bona!

There's just no real effort to push his own Bona wagon, nor any indication that the lack of doing so is because Maniac doesn't feel confident in the Bona wagon, which would be a reasonable thing to say.
---
This is the foundation for voting for Maniac, as I see it. He did some work to help town from D1 through D2, enough work to get townleans from Damo, TFB, and I think one other person? Those are just the two I saw while re-reading.

Since then there's been a big drop off in quality. Again, we can possibly share the blame for not asking pointed questions to Maniac. DeathLlama has taught me the value of creating 1-1 conversations in the thread to see how other people are feeling and to judge whether or not they're engaged and thinking.

I just can't reward this lack of contributions as town's situation got more dire. I would put Maniac is the POE or the sus pool or w/e you wanna call it.
---
As for an argument again Maniac being scum, I think Sabi put it best:

D3 -30:16

Are our standards for Maniac that low that is all it takes for him to be hardcore town read because uh

Perhaps they are that low. Perhaps they are.

[pyxxy]

Re-reading Sabi:

D1:
- 10 post/day rule
- asking lots of questions @ people
- town reads: aaro, tfb, durga,
- fine with voting: snowy, pyxxy, bona, kak, maniac, aaro
- does not like the aaro or durga wagons
- Vote: on Bona until -00:16, switches to Maniac because they think Maniac's aaro vote is "scum-motivated"

N1:
- Notes Maniac moving to Durga at EOD

D2:
- Responds to a bunch of people again
- Gets Bona to interact with them
- Bona v TFB: scum leans Bona, town leans TFB
- pyxxy v llama: null v null
- Jamie v Snowy: town v null
- scumleans Aaro for having irl work
- townleans Celaph and Kak
- confused why anyone townreads Maniac
- POE: ​snowy, Kak, Pyxxy, Bona, Maniac
- Vote: votes Bona for a while, then Maniac, ends on Bona


N2:
- Dislikes Bona's typical tie attempt

D3:
- On Bona again from the start of the day
- Talks with Damo about likely NKs
- Likes what Jamie has been doing for keeping town talking
- Strong scum reads on Bona and Maniac
- Critiques Kak for not posting for 30 straight hours
- Accuses Bona of being lazy in this game
- Vote: most of day on Bona, briefly on Maniac to please Jamie, then back to Bona

N3:
- Tries to help Jamie not self-destruct
- Tries to get some night conversation going
- POE: Bona, Maniac, Kak

D4:
- Vote: votes for Maniac, then moves to No Kill as it makes sense for town

N4:
- Promises to be back for D5 (yet to post)
------
My takeaways:

Has consistently scumleaned Bona and Maniac, and somewhat scumleaned Kak. Like, impressively so. Spent more effort than most pushing the Bona wagon each day. Either it was as D1 plan to bus Bona, or it's a real read that will only be solved when Bona flips.

I'm inclined to townread Sabi for their consistency.

Maybe a perfect town game would have included more attempts to persuade people off of Durga, Aaro, Damo, but I didn't do that so I don't see why Sabi should be held to a higher standard.

I think the posting bit was a genuine attempt to mix things up. Of course I also said that I liked the idea previously, so I'm biased. In the abstract, it's also a smart move as scum to just break up predictability. But they have since moved back to prior posting habits and the transition made sense for the state of the game.

My last note, consistent scumreads ≠ correct scumreads, but that's not what I'm trying to discuss here (nor do I necessary think they're necessarily off-base).

[pyxxy]

Re-reading Bona (aka Argument Man):

D1:
- latches onto scumreading Durga around mid-D1, pulls a bunch of quotes and lists vibes, goes on for a few hours
- says that he only scumread Durga because she flimsily scumread him first
- thinks the aaro wagon formed weirdly
- does the weird coinflip with Snowy (idc enough to reanalyze what it meant gambit-wise)
- Vote: flips around in the beginning but spends quality time on TFB and then basically 24h+ on Durga while pushing her wagon

N1:
- defends his day actions, slight shade on snowy + damo

D2:
- opens voting damo right away, later moves to TFB
- townreads: celaph, jamie, kak (last one is just gut)
- big-ass argument with TFB about who really knows what, was useless and annoying to experience in real time
- thinks that if D1 was TvT, then DeathLlama and Aaro are possibly scum for following the thread momentum into Durga, votes for Aaro
- responds to pyxxy (me) about his own tunneling on Durga and his past scum game
- accuses Sabi of not interacting with people (interesting...)
- does the unvote trademark move
- Vote: damo, TFB, aaro, unvote, ends on aaro

N2:
- meh

D3:
- opens on Damo again (one might call it tunneling)
- fights with Sabi
- (I'm losing steam tn so maybe I'm not doing Bona justice)

N3/D4:
- thinks Damo played poorly as town (aka justifying Bona's own tunneling, my opinion)
- fights with Sabi some more about their reads, argues that there's no POE
- tree falls, subs out
------------
I'm left feeling conflicted about Bona.

I do think there's a world where their tunneling was just that. Tunneling. I think that multiple multi-page arguments day after day after day are bad town play and helped discourage town in this same. But it's also authentically bad town play.

On the other hand, if one can just tunnel on a town and not get punished, and then get believed again and help kill Damo, well. Town should punish this behavior by either ignoring their reads or more carefully analyzing them.

He ended on the DK each of the three days, and got on each wagon at least 8 hours before EOD. @the audience, how do y'all feel about this?

E.g. is this scum trying to push a wagon and succeeding? Is it town trying to push a wagon and stay consistent with the gut reads? Is it some of both?

I come out of this re-read feeling less confident in scum!Bona and more regretful that I didn't push him harder as the D3 flip.

I do have this funny feeling that Bona-Sabi cannot be scum together. Not sure why. Just feels like their friction in this game was too frequent and believable to be fabricated. Can't imagine both of them agreeing to it either as scum theatre.

(going to bed, more re-reads tomorrow hopefully)

[Kakarroto]

Question:

Does Kak have a gun?

depending on the viability of flavour text I sent to Eden, I might've prepared something like a primitive pipe apparatus with black powder and lead balls and hid it with the know-how to make it somewhere inside the village to prepare for the invasion ...

but sadly rd didn't hand me the item. At first I intended it to be just a joke over the N-D change, to post it just when the night ended and continue with just voting damo at the start of the day, too bad I missed it due to the saving time thing screwing up things. Then, since I couldn't change it, I was thinking that 'hey, you could use that mistake to distract mafia by drawing the nk (big stonks) or the rb (maybe? need to check that out after game)' so I tried to be vague in case I drew the rb and keep getting it (though with damo flipping town that's unlikely). I kept the slim chance of getting rb'ed alive after damo's flip with asking who to gun for, but that might've been bad for town.

if there has been any item flowing around, I think either celaph or jamie/worcej had it and the use has been lost to us. well ... come to think about it ... jamie was so sure about maniac being mafia, that might've been a guilty scan ... then again, jamie would've said something like that, right? the only case where he would've been silent about it would've been if he was handed the scan after n1 and that would mean there is an apprentice. who is still alive. but then there would be more items around. so the chance for that is pretty much extremely low. so it was probably just jamie's read about maniac.

[BesharamSabi]

After playing civ and sleeping for most of yesterday because I felt like death, I am alive and risen in time for Easter.

Rest in peace worcej.

Going to spend time rereading today but my vote today is on either Maniac or Bona-Macca573 today.

##VOTE Maniac

[BesharamSabi]

The fact that durga has double the posts than Maniac and she died D1 says a lot about Maniac. This is beyond infuriating.

[Maniac]

@Sabi - being infuriated by me is no at good reason to kill me.

We have very limited actual information this game, but we shouldn't ignore the info we have.

I urge everyone to look again closely at D2 especially the final run in.

5 minutes to go unknown!Maniac votes for Unknown!Bona putting them in the lead.

Unknown!DeathLlame then places a naked vote on Town!Aarodactyl. He had signposted that he was likely to do this 25 mins earlier. Did that give scum info to miskill Aarodactyl?

Town!Aaro then votes town!Damo, setting up Town!Aaro v Town!Damo v unknown!Bona 3v3v3

Unknown!TFB switches from Town!Damo to Town!aaro leaving Town!Aaro v unknown!Bona but all could see Bona hadn't yet voted. Unknown!Bona votes Town!aaro almost sealing Aaro's fate and Town!Damo then votes unknown!Bona.

Town!aaro is killed by slimmest of margins. THREE unknowns voted for them in the last 2 minutes. The unknown!Bona voter were unknown!Maniac, Unknown!Sabi, Town!Jamie and Town!Damo. It's entirely possible that all Unknown!Bona voters were Town.

We absolutely have to kill from Bona, TFB and Deathlama today. I think Deathlama is more null than scum, but other two are strong scum candidates.

I've already pointed out that when TFB was lead wagon on D1 it was Bona that stepped off and onto Town!Celaph and the Town!Durga.

Odds are really against us, but we could play a prediction game just to see if Town could've won this if it played optimum from here on in.

My scum reads are Bona, TFB and then from DL, Sabi and Kak.

[BesharamSabi]

@pyxxy what did you get out of your retreads in terms on who to vote for?

[DeathLlama8]

okay well that was way less catchup than I expected to do

I like pyxxy putting in the effort today after some pretty genuine frustration yesterday, and I think I'm fully on the townlean side now. Scum either fakes frustration and then ghosts to kill the thread or just keeps pretending to be scumhunting IMO, but it's more of a vibe read.

kak has continued to blatantly not give a shit about finding scum this game. I don't think he's actually given an opinion on who he thinks is maf since like day three, and has basically been shitposting about everyone being town and the fakest gun claim I have ever seen since then

@macca - have you reread days one and two yet? did that affect your scumreads at all?

[DeathLlama8]

The fact that durga has double the posts than Maniac and she died D1 says a lot about Maniac. This is beyond infuriating.

this is the second time I've seen sabi complain about lurkers and not include kak (who has less posts than maniac). kinda weird

[BesharamSabi]

The fact that durga has double the posts than Maniac and she died D1 says a lot about Maniac. This is beyond infuriating.

this is the second time I've seen sabi complain about lurkers and not include kak (who has less posts than maniac). kinda weird

I legit was counting hours between kak post. Reread better Llama.

[DeathLlama8]

oh sorry i guess i misread my own post as "sabi has never acknowledged that kak is lurking ever"

can we have like literacy tests to get into next game lmao

[DeathLlama8]

eod1

my intuition is that given that the main three wagons are town, trying to get new wagons started (on people that aren't already conf!town) is town-indicative. staying on one wagon and actively pushing it is also town-indicative (indicates genuine belief and scum probably don't want to be the main drivers of a miskill). staying on a wagon and not really pushing it, or expressing dissatisfaction at the wagons but not doing anything about it, is more scum-indicative since it indicates an ambivalence towards who actually dies. scum will probably also be split along wagons, but that's not something we can actually use yet.

bonacca: was basically tunneled on durga the entire day and actively tried to get people onto her, while consistently expressing weird vibes at the other wagons. seems town-indicative, with the caveat that bona is just a very tunnelly dude

sabi: expresses distaste at main wagons, tries to start two different flashes. ending on a solo vote of maniac isn't great but they could've plausibly just not been on at EOD. townpoints

maniac: votes aaro for posting too much, then randomly switches to damo with one minute left? could be scum trying to force a tie but it's not really clear what forcing a tie actually does there for scum. null.

pyxxy: pyxxy's eod1 was a main reason why I continued to scumread them into day two, in the sense that they fit the scum archetype of not really seeming to care who died. their last post that was weirdly shading me for not getting more people to follow me onto them was bad vibes. scumpoints, but like I think I've already accounted for this in my current read of them and I think their townier behavior more recently outweighs this.

boat: similarly to bona, spends basically the entire day on durga and seems to act pretty consistently. doesn't really spend as much time pushing other people to join the wagon as bona despite the focus though, so mild scumpoints

kak: not on at eod --> null

[DeathLlama8]

ngl I thought that would’ve been more helpful

there were at least unknowns up at eod2 and pre-eod3 at least so maybe there’s more potential pairings there

also I should not be the only person doing this. y’all had like five days

[Maniac]

I’m tempted to suggest we should also be thinking about our strongest town reads. We have to ensure that we pay attention to where our strong town reads are voting at EOD. I’m not anticipating that people will sheep me, but if antine really can’t have confidence in a scum read, consider sheeping a strong town read.