Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

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thamrick
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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1881 Post by thamrick » Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:10 pm

@bozo - if you really are town, which I could possibly believe, let's figure out who the scum is. Don't just tunnel on me because we'll lose. We need to fully consider ALL candidates.

-We'll know Bo's alignment tomorrow pretty much regardless of what happens tonight. If the NK turns up with the DD tag, we'll know Bo is scum. If there is no NK, it's possible that scum is trying to make Bo look like scum or that Bo just doesn't want to NK to reveal himself. We no-lynch and force scum to make the first move.

-Darg looks the clearest with his MEME tag. However, it's possible that he is scum and actually looked at his tag after Yav was killed. Godfather became a pretty useless role at that point so he might have risked being BO_SOX to not have to worry about fake-claiming a tag.

-Pouncy also looks good, but if Bozo is town, the list of likely suspects is pretty small. Pouncy could just be laying incredibly low until town eventually mislynches and deep threat wins. There had been no mafia chat at that point. reedeer obviously knew he was GUAK, but the GUAK tag is NAI.
Question for everyone -
If you were town GUAK, what would you do?
If you were scum GUAK, what would you do?

-I have townread rdrivera all game. I find it hard to believe that scum would have gone into D4 knowing that they just needed 1 mislynch to win and with xorxes under pressure with the idea that they would have the other 2 scum claim the same tag. If you're going to execute that plan, you have Ezio claim whatever tag xorxes claimed to be since xorxes is likely lynched anyways if you're trying to get one of your teammates towncleared.

-bozo looks very suspicious due to his voting record and protection of both xorxes and Ezio when scum only needed one mislynch. He has been pushing to lynch mechanically rather than scumhunting since D3. It's possible that he actually is town that just had bad reads.


Scum to town at this point:
bozo
Pouncy
darg
rdr

--------------------------
Bo


Bo is a separate case. There's basically no middle ground for Bo. Either he's scum and will eventually have to NK, or he's a townclear.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1882 Post by rdrivera2005 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:22 pm

Sorry guys for not being able to participate more. It's been an incredible busy day at work considering it's end of the month, quarter and also holiday tomorrow.
Will try to at least post my reads before EON. Hopefully tomorrow and Saturday I have more time to play.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1883 Post by bo_sox48 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:06 pm

Tham, rdrivera, and bozo, what do you think Ezio's motivation to shift his attention to me on D5 was?

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1884 Post by thamrick » Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:11 pm

Another good question.

I don't really know. My gut is that he just thought he had caught you in a lie about the RB claim. His first post D5 though was a vote on you, even before all that. His reasoning was you were a free lynch because of the tag. Then he basically jumped for joy when I pointed out the contradiction of your goldfinger claim. It doesn't make a lot of sense for him to tunnel if you're town. Getting you mislynched only benefits scum by removing a non-lynch candidate.

If rdr is town, I'm not sure why Ezio wouldn't push him harder yesterday to try to get him lynched unless Ezio and his partner decided that rdr was unlikely to get mislynched and they'd damage control by trying to get rid of Bo so that when Ezio flips there's one less clear.

If rdr is scum, I still don't see it making much sense. If the idea is that Ezio is going to flip, I feel like Ezio would want it to seem like he was actually trying to get rdr lynched so rdr would get more towncred.

I think it's more likely that Ezio was just kind of resigned to the fact that he was scummier than rdr at that point and just shifted to a new target. Makes me lean more favorably towards rdr.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1885 Post by thamrick » Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:24 pm

I'll be leaving in like 20 mins and most likely won't be back before EoN. If I'm NK'd, keep up the good work town.

I don't really know what my NK would tell you. I don't think it'd be damming of Bozo since it could easily be someone setting Bozo up. I don't think I make a lot of sense to NK as there's at least two clears that scum knows in the group of darg/Pouncy/bo.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1886 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:40 pm

bo_sox48 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:06 pm
Tham, rdrivera, and bozo, what do you think Ezio's motivation to shift his attention to me on D5 was?
I think he was trying to set up a mislynch. By going after you instead of rdrivera, he might have been trying to look like he was protecting rdrivera. Or, when I started arguing for your lynch, he might have been trying to set me up for voting with him again.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1887 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:45 pm

@thamrick: You and rdrivera are the only two possible scum for me to consider. You two are the only ones left beside me that claimed nametags that could possibly be the third fake nametag.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1888 Post by rdrivera2005 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:18 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:45 pm
@thamrick: You and rdrivera are the only two possible scum for me to consider. You two are the only ones left beside me that claimed nametags that could possibly be the third fake nametag.
Bozo, could you explain me why you are so sure there were 3 fake name tags, I don't get it.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1889 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:18 pm

I looked at thamrick's claim that he has been voting for scum 95% of the time, and it looks like he could have been doing a lot of bussing. He joined the game part way through D1 and was the first to vote for xorxes. D2, he was the first to vote for brainbomb, voting for him before yavuzovic's cop scan claim. D3, he was back to xorxes, and looks like he was willing to lynch xorxes. D4, he was voting for Ezio for a while and was the deciding vote on lynching xorxes, but made an attempt to lynch rdrivera or force a tie at EOD. D5, thamrick was the last to vote for Ezio, he might have been waiting to see if a bo_sox lynch was possible before bussing Ezio.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1890 Post by rdrivera2005 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:25 pm

bo_sox48 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:06 pm
Tham, rdrivera, and bozo, what do you think Ezio's motivation to shift his attention to me on D5 was?
I think Tham gave a good answer. Ezio seemed to want to find another target as he was more scumread then me at that point. Then he saw a chance to really lynch you with the RB thing and went for it. I also think he was a bit easy with his own lynch in the end, so either he was confident his partner have a good chance to win or he want to avoid giving more info to town.
He could also fear you being around at last day, he fear Xorxes too much on the last game.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1891 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:36 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:18 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:45 pm
@thamrick: You and rdrivera are the only two possible scum for me to consider. You two are the only ones left beside me that claimed nametags that could possibly be the third fake nametag.
Bozo, could you explain me why you are so sure there were 3 fake name tags, I don't get it.
As of D4, everyone had claimed a nametag except bo_sox, who was kidnapped and we know was DD D4, and Pouncy, who had claimed the loss of the fated gun and confirmed a GUAK claim D5. Here are the claims:

1. xorxes claims KRELLIN, checked D3 (claim made N3).
2. Foxcastle revealed as WJESSOP beginning of D4 (previously claimed DD, checked D1).
3. bozo claims FLUMINATOR, checked D1.
4. rdrivera claims PETERLUND, checked D4.
5. dargorygel claims CAPTAINMEME, checked D4.
6. Ezio claims PETERLUND, checked D4.
7. thamrick claims TEACON7, checked D4.

The BO_SOX tag was missing, so when we confirmed bo_sox was DD, we knew at least one scum had to have made a fake claim. When Foxcastle was the NK N4, he was revealed as Y2KJBK, so we knew a second scum, the one who had the Y2KJBK tag, had made a fake nametag claim. Then, when Ezio was revealed to be GOLDFINGER0303, we knew there was a third fake claim. In other words, we now know BO_SOX, Y2KJBK, and GOLDFINGER0303 are real nametags that were not accounted for D4. We know KRELLIN was fake and we know one of the PETERLUND claims was fake. The only possibilities for the third fake nametag are FLUMINATOR, TEACON7, and the second PETERLUND.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1892 Post by bo_sox48 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:46 pm

I appreciate your answers.

@bozo/tham particularly ... I had a brief thought that both rdrivera and Ezio were scum, and Ezio backed off of rdrivera and onto me because getting rdrivera lynched would hurt the scumteam. We have been in MYLO, so if rdrivera were town, why would he not stick with that battle and try to make a case out of it? He could have reread rdrivera and supplemented what he claimed he already knew about rdrivera, but instead he dropped it and went for me when lynching me would force the game to go on longer. The only thing that makes sense to me given Ezio's flip is that rdrivera is scum with Ezio and Ezio hoped to take attention away from xorxes and clear one of them D4 but knew he couldn't win the game on D5 by lynching a teammate, which is why he gave it absolutely no effort at all despite rdrivera being confirmed scum from his point of view.

Do either of you two see any evidence throughout the remainder of the game supporting or working against that theory?

@rdrivera ... given all the above, could you put together a concrete case on both thamrick and bozo? I'm framing this as a 2-on-1 fight between you three where you are the 1, so put some thought into it. If you can't come up with a case of one of them being mafia, can you make a case for who among them is town?

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1893 Post by rdrivera2005 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:04 pm

bo_sox48 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:46 pm
I appreciate your answers.

@bozo/tham particularly ... I had a brief thought that both rdrivera and Ezio were scum, and Ezio backed off of rdrivera and onto me because getting rdrivera lynched would hurt the scumteam. We have been in MYLO, so if rdrivera were town, why would he not stick with that battle and try to make a case out of it? He could have reread rdrivera and supplemented what he claimed he already knew about rdrivera, but instead he dropped it and went for me when lynching me would force the game to go on longer. The only thing that makes sense to me given Ezio's flip is that rdrivera is scum with Ezio and Ezio hoped to take attention away from xorxes and clear one of them D4 but knew he couldn't win the game on D5 by lynching a teammate, which is why he gave it absolutely no effort at all despite rdrivera being confirmed scum from his point of view.

Do either of you two see any evidence throughout the remainder of the game supporting or working against that theory?

@rdrivera ... given all the above, could you put together a concrete case on both thamrick and bozo? I'm framing this as a 2-on-1 fight between you three where you are the 1, so put some thought into it. If you can't come up with a case of one of them being mafia, can you make a case for who among them is town?
Bo, your theory have two problems (beside the fact I am town): why Ezio decided to counter claim me on D4? I was really close to be lynched. And second, I think the opposite, if we were both scum he will fight me tooth and nails to give me town credit when he flips scum or to get town credit when I flip scum.

I have put a case on Bozo and will post it on my reads on the next minutes before I leave for another endless meeting. I don't think I can make a case against Tham without a re-reading, he looked like town to me the whole game.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1894 Post by rdrivera2005 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:05 pm

I will probably not be online before EON, so I want to share some thoughts and reads.

Well, my point of view to solve this game is very personal as you can't be sure of my alignment, but I can. Scum almost won D4. With 2 hours to go Bozo voted me to put 4 rdr, 2 Ezio and 2 Xorxes. With one hour to go I voted Xorxes to try to save myself, but I was still on the lead. With only 40 minutes to go Dargo voted Xorxes and saved town (in fact I didn't see that vote and was desperate when Tham voted me near EOD). So, to me Dargo is like a town clear since then. I don't give or take much credit to Tham for his shenanigans at EOD as it was clear it's either Xorxes or no-lynch (tie) but he could have jumped on me earlier to push the lynch and didn't do it. This day and the way it shaped point so hard to Bozo that is hard for me not to tunnel on him.

Then come the next day and Ezio jumped on Bo. I think it as probably an opportunistic move, Ezio knew Bo was roleblocked and decided to get Bo lynched instead of fighting me again. The explanation I can see is he knew he was toasted after trying to save Xorxes and don't want to town clear me more and when Bo made a mistake he saw a chance to save himself. Ezio lack of fighting at the end is what is most weird to me and is the only thing that makes me not 100% sure on Bozo as Bozo was the obvious lynch after Ezio. I intend to do a re-read on Bozo-Ezio interaction to see if Ezio was buddying him or they were just open wolfing.

So, reads:

Bozo - Top scum read. Bozo voted with scum all days. It can't be just coincidence. “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck”. I can't see town Bozo voting for lynching me with two hours to go and just leaving, risking to lose the game. It's not the same Bozo that want to lynch Bo to get more info before lynching Ezio the next day.

Tham - Tham have probably the best voting record and I really dislike the “you voted scum, you should be bussing” theory that got me myslynched last game (wasn´t Bozo that pushed that too?). The last games shows that scum usually defend the others unless it's inevitable to buss. I will have to do some re-reading on him too, but he was always on my town list.

Pouncy - Reeeder/Pouncy was my top option for a deep threat in the low possibility I was wrong about Bozo. But after considering Bozo´s insight about the Name Tags, I think Pouncy is clear.

Bo - I don't see an universe where Bo will devise a plan were he get DD tag and kidnap himself for a day and night. Also, if Bo was the last scum with Ezio and Xorxes, they would have kidnapped a town and got me lynched. This game would be over a long time ago.

Dargo - Dargo is town, for the reason I explained before. I was scum reading him a bit before D4, but he was pivotal to lynch Xorxes and his idea of voting the next name in a circling list at mylo was so atrocious that it can't be scum motivated. And the same name tag logic apply for him.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1895 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:05 pm

bo_sox48 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:46 pm
I appreciate your answers.

@bozo/tham particularly ... I had a brief thought that both rdrivera and Ezio were scum, and Ezio backed off of rdrivera and onto me because getting rdrivera lynched would hurt the scumteam. We have been in MYLO, so if rdrivera were town, why would he not stick with that battle and try to make a case out of it? He could have reread rdrivera and supplemented what he claimed he already knew about rdrivera, but instead he dropped it and went for me when lynching me would force the game to go on longer. The only thing that makes sense to me given Ezio's flip is that rdrivera is scum with Ezio and Ezio hoped to take attention away from xorxes and clear one of them D4 but knew he couldn't win the game on D5 by lynching a teammate, which is why he gave it absolutely no effort at all despite rdrivera being confirmed scum from his point of view.

Do either of you two see any evidence throughout the remainder of the game supporting or working against that theory?

@rdrivera ... given all the above, could you put together a concrete case on both thamrick and bozo? I'm framing this as a 2-on-1 fight between you three where you are the 1, so put some thought into it. If you can't come up with a case of one of them being mafia, can you make a case for who among them is town?
I don't know, I have reviewed D4 between Ezio and rdrivera, and rdrivera seemed willing to lynch Ezio or xorxes to consolidate the vote on one or the other, while Ezio was only trying to lynch rdrivera and did not seem concerned about the vote being split. It was important for most of the town to vote together D4 to make sure the scum could not control the lynch. Going into D4, I thought rdrivera was more likely to be scum than Ezio, and I thought it was possible they were both scum, which is why I voted for rdrivera when I had to leave for the day. Based on how D4 went, however, I came out thinking Ezio was scum and rdrivera was likely town. Also, I think Ezio could have chose to not go after rdrivera D5 for the opposite reason, to make it look like he was protecting rdrivera.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1896 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:11 pm

If rdrivera is scum, it meant Ezio and rdrivera would have decided N3 to both claim PETERLUND as a nametag D4. PETERLUND seems like a risky nametag to fake, with a few real nametags not revealed yet. TEACON7, however, looks like a good fake nametag, since from looking at his profile, it appears he has not been active lately.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1897 Post by bo_sox48 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:34 pm

Neither has y2kjbk or President Eden whereas some active players didn't get a nametag. Fluminator hasn't been any more active lately than teacon7 either but that's the name you're claiming, right? I don't think it's fair to try to navigate the GM's thought process behind the nametags either way.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1898 Post by dargorygel » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:57 pm

I find the possibility of someone 'guessing' a nametag to be faked, and ending up with an actual unpowered nametag being IN the game to be very, very, very unlikely. Some math nerd could figure out the odds. But I'll stick with very, very, very unlikely.

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1899 Post by DemonRHK » Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:00 pm

***NIGHT HAS ENDED, PLEASE HOLD***

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Re: Mafia XXXV - The WebDip Class Reunion

#1900 Post by DemonRHK » Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:05 pm

As morning broke over the motel, one alum did not emerge from their room. Upon investigation, their room was found with no indication it had even been stayed in.

The resident, however, was found face down, drowned in the toilet!

dargorygel has DIED! He was CAPTAINMEME, of the TOWN!

Day 6 has begun. There are 48 hours remaining.

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